State Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves

[ksen]

http://www.cbpp.org/cms/?fa=view&id=4141

Several anti-tax advocates have been especially visible and vociferous in advocating state personal income tax cuts, arguing that personal income taxes are leading individuals and families to relocate from the 41 states that levy them (and particularly from those that levy them at somewhat higher rates) to the nine states that don’t have income taxes. They assert that large numbers of people are consciously “voting with their feet” — leaving high income tax states for low- or no-income-tax states in large part because they want to retain more of their wages and salaries rather than pay them in state and local taxes. Some also claim that primarily highly educated, high-income individuals are fleeing states with relatively high and progressive income tax structures in favor of states without income taxes.

The available data, however, fail to support claims that much interstate migration is driven by high-income people — or anyone else — consciously choosing low-tax locations.

Huh, so fleeing from higher taxes is another right wing myth?

Who could have guessed?

 

[Nice Squirrel]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/13/us/twinned-cities-now-following-different-paths.html

(The taxes have been lowered across the board so the tax-whiners arguments are now moot.)

This is a well-traveled commute between the Minnesota and Wisconsin cities, separated by the St. Louis River. Together, they are known as the Twin Ports for their shared role as a major cargo port, and people on both sides share Scandinavian, German and Irish roots, working-class pasts and a stoic sensibility hardened by a steady chill off Lake Superior.

But these days, when residents cross the bridge, they enter starkly different political territories. Since Republicans in Wisconsin took control of the State Legislature and governor’s office in 2011, and since Democrats gained full dominance in Minnesota last year, people here have watched essential elements of their daily lives — their savings plans, job expectations, personal relationships and health insurance — veer apart.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It sounds bogus to me.

Yes, I would expect to see little migration from high tax states--those who live in high tax states have already decided it's worth it.

What the report is not looking at but should is the effect on immigration. People will consider the cost of living in deciding whether to move to a location.

 

[ksen]

It sounds bogus to me.

What sounds bogus?

Yes, I would expect to see little migration from high tax states--those who live in high tax states have already decided it's worth it.

Except that's not what people on the rightwing claim.

What the report is not looking at but should is the effect on immigration. People will consider the cost of living in deciding whether to move to a location.

Considering the cost of living is not the same as saying high tax rates are the main driver.

Also look at Table 3 in the OP article. The ones moving out tend to have Adjusted Gross Incomes less than those that stay.

 

[doubtingt]

It sounds bogus to me.

Yes, I would expect to see little migration from high tax states--those who live in high tax states have already decided it's worth it.

What the report is not looking at but should is the effect on immigration. People will consider the cost of living in deciding whether to move to a location.

The primary factor in lower cost of living is lower property values which are determined mostly by the fact that no one wants to live there for many other reasons. So, lower cost of living (including lower local and state taxes) is an indicator that no one wants to live there and more people want to leave there than move there. Also, parents consider quality of schools as much as anything in deciding where to move, and (no surprise) schools tend to be much better in places with higher taxes.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

Are you saying that supporting education means we need to pay for it?

Blasphemy. You are a witch!

 

[Playball40]

Some states with no state income tax have higher state and local sales tax as well as higher RE taxes.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What sounds bogus?

Yes, I would expect to see little migration from high tax states--those who live in high tax states have already decided it's worth it.

Except that's not what people on the rightwing claim.

What the report is not looking at but should is the effect on immigration. People will consider the cost of living in deciding whether to move to a location.

Considering the cost of living is not the same as saying high tax rates are the main driver.

Also look at Table 3 in the OP article. The ones moving out tend to have Adjusted Gross Incomes less than those that stay.

Tax rates can make a big difference in the cost of living.

What I'm saying is that the study is looking at the wrong thing. You have a population self-selected for accepting the high tax rate, of course the high tax rate shows little effect.

Note that this does not say that raising the tax rate won't have an effect.

 

[ksen]

What I'm saying is that the study is looking at the wrong thing.

The study authors explicitly said they are looking at whether or not the data supports claims made by anti-tax advocates that say high taxes are currently causing people to flee high tax states.

That you don't agree with what they're looking at doesn't really mean anything.

Maybe you should take it up with the anti-taxers who continue to make specious arguments.

 

[Nice Squirrel]

People rarely move because it takes a great effort and cost to do so. Taxes ain't gonna push many unless they are unusually crippling.

I don't see why this is so controversial.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

What I'm saying is that the study is looking at the wrong thing.

The study authors explicitly said they are looking at whether or not the data supports claims made by anti-tax advocates that say high taxes are currently causing people to flee high tax states.

That you don't agree with what they're looking at doesn't really mean anything.

Maybe you should take it up with the anti-taxers who continue to make specious arguments.

I haven't seen claims that taxes are causing people to flee. It's a hypothetical--raising taxes will cause them to flee.


I believe they deliberately chose to study the wrong thing to try to show taxes won't do harm. Governments can be very dishonest about taxes.

Locally they're trying to claim that the cap that was put in a while ago on how fast property tax bills could go up is now a bad idea. Huh--we are now facing the very same situation that caused the problems that caused the cap in the first place. Remove it and we would have the same issues.

 

[bilby]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

Except that's not what the report says.

It says people rarely move out of a state due to taxes. That does not say that the impact is negligible as it discounts the effect of choosing not to move into states.

 

[bilby]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

Except that's not what the report says.

It says people rarely move out of a state due to taxes. That does not say that the impact is negligible as it discounts the effect of choosing not to move into states.

I am merely obeying the instruction in the thread title.

 

[AthenaAwakened]

Unless taxes go up in state to something like 99%, no business is just going to up and leave existing infrastructure and a trained workforce.

Taxes alone don't determine a company's future.

 

[doubtingt]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

Except that's not what the report says.

It says people rarely move out of a state due to taxes. That does not say that the impact is negligible as it discounts the effect of choosing not to move into states.

Yes it is what the report says. They analyzed the incomes, ages, and some other variables for all states, examining what factors predict net inward-migration and outward-migration for each state, using the people who stayed within their state during that period as a comparison group. They found no reliable relationship between migration patterns and whether the people moved toward or away from states with lower taxes.

 

[ksen]

I haven't seen claims that taxes are causing people to flee. It's a hypothetical--raising taxes will cause them to flee.

I provided 4 links with that exact claim by right wing sources to you earlier. It's not my fault you couldn't be bothered to read them.

And the fact that you haven't seen them doesn't mean the claims aren't being made. I provided just 4 for you on page 1.

I believe they deliberately chose to study the wrong thing to try to show taxes won't do harm. Governments can be very dishonest about taxes.

wtf? The CBPR is not a government think tank.

Jesus, if you're not even going to attempt to have an honest conversation then I don't think I'm going to bother with you anymore in this thread.

It's gets boring when you just go to the old LP playbook instead of interacting with the statements and information that are actually being made and provided in the thread instead of only responding to what you wish we had said or provided.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Unless taxes go up in state to something like 99%, no business is just going to up and leave existing infrastructure and a trained workforce.

Taxes alone don't determine a company's future.

1) The biggest factor is where they decide to open new businesses (likewise, for people, where they decide to move to.)

2) It doesn't take that much to drive business out. Look at the fallout we are already seeing from Obama's minimum wage decree--some companies providing on-base fast food are looking to leave. It's cheaper to lose the infrastructure than to operate at a loss.

 

[laughing dog]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

Except that's not what the report says.

It says people rarely move out of a state due to taxes. That does not say that the impact is negligible as it discounts the effect of choosing not to move into states.

Until you provide a source that shows that there is a noticeable effect of taxes discouraging people to move into states, your claim is not based on reality.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Taxes Have a Negligible Impact on Americans' Interstate Moves.


There you go; I stated it. Now what?

Except that's not what the report says.

It says people rarely move out of a state due to taxes. That does not say that the impact is negligible as it discounts the effect of choosing not to move into states.

Until you provide a source that shows that there is a noticeable effect of taxes discouraging people to move into states, your claim is not based on reality.

You have the burden of proof backwards.

The report looked at only half the issue--a half where you would not expect to see much effect--and found not much effect.

This is being used to claim that tax rates don't change where people live--something that it does not actually say. They could have looked at both sides of the coin, they didn't. Given the amount of crap I've seen based on looking at half the picture to support a position that the facts don't actually support I think it's very likely this is more of the same.

Your side provided a bad piece of support, the burden is on your side to fix this.