Study: 50k deaths/day by June

[Horatio Parker]

If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You'll need far more than a clue-by-4 to beat the idea of exponential growth into the trumpets.

 

[Derec]

If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/

Please stop freaking out Don2 more than he already is. Obviously many "control measures" are put in place already, with shutdown of schools and other venues designed to slow down the spread. 25 days is also plenty of time to beef up critical care capacity somewhat. Over two months until early June even more so. And while Trump's idea that this will go away with warm weather is wishful thinking, it will probably slow down the spread somewhat, perhaps (and hopefully) significantly. That will also help out flatten out the curve. Lastly, researchers are furiously working on testing treatment options. In two or three weeks time we may have much better treatments available to physicians than we do today. It would definitely make a huge difference if due to better medication a particular patient may need ICU care or a ventilator for 3 days vs. a week.

 

[Derec]

You'll need far more than a clue-by-4 to beat the idea of exponential growth into the trumpets.

Exponential growth doesn't have to mean catastrophic though.
Things are serious, yes, but I doubt we will crack even 1 kdeath/d at the peak. But even that would be serious. Look at Italy. They are at ~300-400 deaths/d right now and are in absolute shambles. That corresponds to ~1500-2000 deaths/d for a country the size of US.

Also, the shape of active infections is going to resemble a normal distribution bell curve. A bell curve is exponential only at the beginning, then things start to saturate. The inflection point of the bell curve is when the slope of the curve start decreasing, and it comes well before the peak in the number of active cases.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/

OMFG!

 

[Derec]

OMFG!

See what you did, Horatio?

To calm you down, there is hope for effective treatments using drugs developed for other viruses such as the flu.
China says Japan-developed drug Avigan works against coronavirus

 

[hurtinbuckaroo]

If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/

OMFG!

But a boatload of control measures are already in place.

 

[Elixir]

If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-d...coronavirus-deaths-in-a-medium-case-scenario/

Please stop freaking out Don2 more than he already is.

Maybe you should repeat your ignorant assertion that this so-called pandemic will be over and done by June, eh? That should make him feel better.
Or better yet, give him TSwizzle's assurance that "In two to three weeks time we will be getting back to normal."

Our alt-white conservotards are very helpful with their reassurances.

 

[Horatio Parker]

OMFG!

But a boatload of control measures are already in place.

Yes, so hopefully it won't be as bad as that. They classify the responses as 1) nothing 2) mitigation and 3) suppression. Deaths, respectively, 2.2M, 1.1M, 200k. We're currently practicing mitigation.

 

[Derec]

Maybe you should repeat your ignorant assertion that this so-called pandemic will be over and done by June, eh? That should make him feel better.

Did I say that? I don't recall saying June, just Summer, and I don't recall saying "over and done" either.
I still think the number of active cases will start going down by the start of June (70 days from now) and by June 21st (official start of Summer) it should be on a significant downswing.
That said, predictions are difficult, especially about the future.

Or better yet, give him TSwizzle's assurance that "In two to three weeks time we will be getting back to normal."

I agree that timeframe is silly.

Our alt-white conservotards are very helpful with their reassurances.

Oh, back to silly insults I see.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

You'll need far more than a clue-by-4 to beat the idea of exponential growth into the trumpets.

Exponential growth doesn't have to mean catastrophic though.
Things are serious, yes, but I doubt we will crack even 1 kdeath/d at the peak. But even that would be serious. Look at Italy. They are at ~300-400 deaths/d right now and are in absolute shambles. That corresponds to ~1500-2000 deaths/d for a country the size of US.

Also, the shape of active infections is going to resemble a normal distribution bell curve. A bell curve is exponential only at the beginning, then things start to saturate. The inflection point of the bell curve is when the slope of the curve start decreasing, and it comes well before the peak in the number of active cases.
View attachment 26612

Unchecked exponential growth is always catastrophic. Remember, also, that once the healthcare system saturates expect the death rate to be something like 5x what it is now, not to mention other deaths because so many resources are allocated to C19.

 

[Derec]

Unchecked exponential growth is always catastrophic.

But it is not unchecked. Pretty draconian measures have been instituted (closed schools, closed businesses etc.) to reduce contacts between people and thereby slow down spread.

Remember, also, that once the healthcare system saturates expect the death rate to be something like 5x what it is now,

Then we need to do the best we can to not let it come to that. Or if it is inevitable, to limit the excess cases that overwhelm the system. The article predicts that the system will be overwhelmed in 25 days with "do nothing scenario". I think about two months is more realistic (although local systems like in NY may be critical much sooner, unfortunately). That is pretty long time. Enough to implement countermeasures like more ICU beds and ventilators. There are several drug options that are promising. If a drug can prevent somebody from needing a ventilator or ICU or at least shorten the time they need it, that would go a long way to take pressure off the system.

not to mention other deaths because so many resources are allocated to C19.

Yes, I can imagine terminal cancer patients having a hard talk with their physicians even now about continuing treatment that will at most but them some time.

 

[J842P]

But it is not unchecked. Pretty draconian measures have been instituted (closed schools, closed businesses etc.) to reduce contacts between people and thereby slow down spread.


Then we need to do the best we can to not let it come to that. Or if it is inevitable, to limit the excess cases that overwhelm the system. The article predicts that the system will be overwhelmed in 25 days (although local systems like in NY may be critical much sooner, unfortunately). That is a decently long time. Enough to implement countermeasures. There are several drug options that are promising. If a drug can prevent somebody from needing a ventilator or ICU or at least shorten the time they need it, that would go a long way to take pressure off the system.

not to mention other deaths because so many resources are allocated to C19.

Yes, I can imagine terminal cancer patients having a hard talk with their physicians even now about continuing treatment that will at most but them some time.

Not to mention all the other types of pulmonary infections, which already kill a lot of people.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But it is not unchecked. Pretty draconian measures have been instituted (closed schools, closed businesses etc.) to reduce contacts between people and thereby slow down spread.

I was referring to what would happen if we didn't act.

Then we need to do the best we can to not let it come to that. Or if it is inevitable, to limit the excess cases that overwhelm the system. The article predicts that the system will be overwhelmed in 25 days with "do nothing scenario". I think about two months is more realistic (although local systems like in NY may be critical much sooner, unfortunately). That is pretty long time. Enough to implement countermeasures like more ICU beds and ventilators. There are several drug options that are promising. If a drug can prevent somebody from needing a ventilator or ICU or at least shorten the time they need it, that would go a long way to take pressure off the system.

What is your reason to think you know more than the experts?

not to mention other deaths because so many resources are allocated to C19.

Yes, I can imagine terminal cancer patients having a hard talk with their physicians even now about continuing treatment that will at most but them some time.

Actually, in the current situation I would refuse most non-surgical cancer treatments--immunocompromised and C19 is a deadly combo.

However, I was talking about the other medical emergencies that come along. I just got an e-mail today from a major medical institution that they are stopping doing elective surgery.