Being British, history has taught me that no-one is going to put their arse in a cramp to help my country; instead we'll do our share and more to help others, economically crippling ourselves for generations, and the thanks we'll get is minimal, but that is beside the point.
It seems then, you haven't actually paid much attention in history class because British history is replete with examples of other countries coming to help you out. As many times as my country has waged war on yours, we've come to your aid more times still. Hell, some of your present-day territory is stuff we helped you conquer; Gibraltar ring a bell? A fat load of nothing we got from you as thanks for everything we did in that war by the way; being Dutch, history has taught me that Britain has a tendency to screw over its allies.
and You neatly strawman that I would not wish to help any country - that isn't true, I've simply pointed out that Ukraine and other former Soviet satellites aren't worth the consequences of "helping" them.
The problem with that; is that some of those former Soviet satellites include EU members. If you are not willing to come to their aid, then Europe is not willing to come to yours. It doesn't matter if it's Germany about to fall or Finland. And when it comes to those states outside the EU, we still have a moral obligation to stand up to bullies who pick on the weak for the sole crime of them trying to become closer to us.
The leader of the "opposition", such as it is in Russia, was given a custodial sentence today. Putin's Russia is not any form of democracy and the oligarchy will find that replacing Putin with someone else does not solve the problem and replacing Putin or even thinking about replacing Putin will cause some oligarchs to develop mysterious, sudden, and fatal illnesses.
Yes, because Putin apparently has telepathy and total control over everything that goes on in Russia. All some oligarch has to do is think it, and Putin snaps his fingers and there's poison in that oligarch's veins. Don't be ridiculous.
Replacing Putin with someone else more loyal to the interests of the elite will most certainly solve the problem for them in the mid to long term. With a replacement, they could get to work on repairing the relationship with the west and securing their own wealth.
The idea that Putin will listen to either officials or the elite is touchingly naive.
I didn't say he would listen; what I said was that he basically doesn't have a choice. Putin may *want* to buy all those shiny toys for his military, but he simply can't afford them. What's he going to do, buy them with IOU's?
In the unlikely event Putin is replaced the chances are that his successor will be even more authoritarian and nationalist. I can't think of any examples in history of a an authoritarian, nationalist government in economic crisis being replaced with a less authoritarian, less nationalist one.
What, Putin can have total control over what people think and can magically poison anyone who even thinks of rebellion, but a cabal of the richest and most powerful Russian elite couldn't possibly manipulate sham elections to put a moderate in power?
Again, you seem to be labouring under the delusion that economic woes will generate a moderating influence on a democratic Russia. Russia isn't democratic and economically screwing any country has never had the desired effect, in fact the opposite is true.
Far from it; I've said from the beginning that economic sanctions are only likely to increase nationalist tension. What I've said is A) that doing nothing is worse; and B) Since they're going to be nationalist fuckwits anyway, we're better off with them broke.
Moldova directly borders the so-called "New Russia" of ethnic Russian-speaking people, just like Crimea did before it was subsumed.
No, it borders the historic 'New Russia', but most people in that region today are *not* in fact, ethnic Russian speaking people. They remain a minority; and it's territory that is not in Russian hands. They'd surely have to invade the rest of Ukraine first before it makes sense to make moves on Moldova.
Once again you make the mistake of assuming that Russians think like westerners - the significance of Moldova to Russian nationalists is not its location or anything practical or tactical (although if you wanted to put any more pressure on Ukraine it is ideally located).
No, I'm assuming they aren't complete morons. There is no value whatsoever on taking Transnistria (or Moldova itself). It isn't just about getting yourself saddled with a worthless exclave; it isn't even useful to fan nationalist furor with. Nationalists are easy to manipulate; they could be kept happy with rhetoric and provocation towards NATO; it's completely unnecessary for Putin to launch another military campaign to keep his country awash in nationalist sentiment and himself in power; and if a military campaign *was* deemed necessary, there are others that promise to actually be worth the expenditure and effort instead of becoming a costly exercise in futility.
The significance is that they have a population with a large Russian-speaking minority. Not only that but the Russian-speaking minority in Moldova can apply for and get Russian passports, making them "Russian" and Russia will move to protect "their" people just as they did in Ukraine.
Moldova's "large" Russian speaking minority isn't anywhere near that what we've seen in Ukraine. Russia appears to have only been willing to take direct action in Crimea; and that's got over 50% Russian speakers. It's supported the rebels in the eastern regions which also have more than 50% Russian speakers, but has refrained from direct and overt action: why? Because Crimea was the only place of any real value to them. Donetsk and Luhansk apparently aren't worth any real effort. And if those areas, both with around 70% Russian aren't worth the effort, then Moldova with a paltry 15% definitely isn't going to be worth the effort. Even Transnistria is only 30% Russian. Russia will just poke and prod and hope things go their way, but they're not going to expend any real resources on it.
By the way, Moldovans (including those in Transnistria) can travel anywhere in the European Union without a visa; which unsurprisingly is a far more popular option than getting a Russian passport. *And* Moldovans can get Romanian passports, which makes them EU citizens. More than a million Moldovans are now EU citizens. Or in other words, around 25% are EU citizens; compared to just 15% who are ethnically Russian, most of whom don't have Russian passports. So Moldova really isn't the place for Russia to repeat the same trick. They might not like being hit by their own tactics.
