NobleSavage
Veteran Member
You would have better luck reading your horoscope.
You would have better luck reading your horoscope.
You would have better luck reading your horoscope.
No. It takes enormousdisciplineluck to consistently profit in the stock market using technical analysis.
Problem with technical stock analysis is knowing when the market has peaked. If that information could be obtained then anyone could make a fortune from the stock market. Bad news - the stock market prices cannot be predicted.
No, luck runs out. I said, "consistently."No. It takes enormousdisciplineluck to consistently profit in the stock market using technical analysis.
FIFY.
Well, I've been in and out of the market 3 times over the last 15 years, and as embarrassing as it is to say it, I have little room to talk. I suck. Well, some might regard me as a resident expert on a few things here or there, but it's the damn results that I guage my benchmark on.It is impossible in principle to predict the stock-market using any (widely known) methodology.
If I came up with some fantastic methodology that allowed be to pick the top (or bottom) of the market, on any timescale, then that methodology would lead to people selling just before the top (or buying just before the bottom), to anticipate the move caused by those using the new technique; and by so doing, they would cause the top (or bottom) to be earlier than expected. If the algorithm allows you to predict the effect of this movement, then it will trigger earlier selling (or buying) than it predicted - which would be mathematically impossible.
If Apple shares can be predicted to peak at, say, 11am on February 9th, you can beat the market by selling at 10:59:59.999; but as everyone has access to the methodology, the shares will now peak at 10:59:59.999, so you should sell at 10:59:59.998. You can chase the reitieration of this effect back to the present moment, and the upshot is that any algorithm that works will tell you to buy right now; and also to sell right now.
The only way to make any method for picking the market work is to keep it top secret. So we can show that any method to pick stock movements that is public knowledge must be ineffective.
No, luck runs out. I said, "consistently."FIFY.
Well, I've been in and out of the market 3 times over the last 15 years, and as embarrassing as it is to say it, I have little room to talk. I suck. Well, some might regard me as a resident expert on a few things here or there, but it's the damn results that I guage my benchmark on.It is impossible in principle to predict the stock-market using any (widely known) methodology.
If I came up with some fantastic methodology that allowed be to pick the top (or bottom) of the market, on any timescale, then that methodology would lead to people selling just before the top (or buying just before the bottom), to anticipate the move caused by those using the new technique; and by so doing, they would cause the top (or bottom) to be earlier than expected. If the algorithm allows you to predict the effect of this movement, then it will trigger earlier selling (or buying) than it predicted - which would be mathematically impossible.
If Apple shares can be predicted to peak at, say, 11am on February 9th, you can beat the market by selling at 10:59:59.999; but as everyone has access to the methodology, the shares will now peak at 10:59:59.999, so you should sell at 10:59:59.998. You can chase the reitieration of this effect back to the present moment, and the upshot is that any algorithm that works will tell you to buy right now; and also to sell right now.
The only way to make any method for picking the market work is to keep it top secret. So we can show that any method to pick stock movements that is public knowledge must be ineffective.
<whimpers away>
One that was not lucky enough to remain lucky for extended periods was not therefore unlucky for shorter periods. Take for instance winning eight consecutive small scratch off tickets. One can press his luck and not win the ninth.No, luck runs out. I said, "consistently."
If you are lucky, your luck will hold for as long as you remain in the market. Most people are not lucky; so most people do not consistently profit in the stock market using technical analysis (or any other technique that doesn't involve insider knowledge)
Well, I've been in and out of the market 3 times over the last 15 years, and as embarrassing as it is to say it, I have little room to talk. I suck. Well, some might regard me as a resident expert on a few things here or there, but it's the damn results that I guage my benchmark on.
<whimpers away>
Don't feel bad about it. I think the stock market is particularity dangerous for smart people.
Thanks.Well, I've been in and out of the market 3 times over the last 15 years, and as embarrassing as it is to say it, I have little room to talk. I suck. Well, some might regard me as a resident expert on a few things here or there, but it's the damn results that I guage my benchmark on.
<whimpers away>
Don't feel bad about it. I think the stock market is particularity dangerous for smart people.
One that was not lucky enough to remain lucky for extended periods was not therefore unlucky for shorter periods. Take for instance winning eight consecutive small scratch off tickets. One can press his luck and not win the ninth.If you are lucky, your luck will hold for as long as you remain in the market. Most people are not lucky; so most people do not consistently profit in the stock market using technical analysis (or any other technique that doesn't involve insider knowledge)
Trading is not the same as betting. Only illegal if? Lol.One that was not lucky enough to remain lucky for extended periods was not therefore unlucky for shorter periods. Take for instance winning eight consecutive small scratch off tickets. One can press his luck and not win the ninth.
If what you lost on the ninth was equal to, or greater than, what you won on the first eight, then your overall score is 'unlucky'. If not, your overall score is 'lucky'. Technical analysis might or might not be the technique used to pick your bets, but it is only down to luck if you are a consistent winner using that (or any) technique. Except insider trading; that's not luck; and it's only illegal if you get caught.
Trading is not the same as betting. Only illegal if? Lol.If what you lost on the ninth was equal to, or greater than, what you won on the first eight, then your overall score is 'unlucky'. If not, your overall score is 'lucky'. Technical analysis might or might not be the technique used to pick your bets, but it is only down to luck if you are a consistent winner using that (or any) technique. Except insider trading; that's not luck; and it's only illegal if you get caught.
Over the very long term, with no use of technical or fundamental analysis, one has a 95% chance of doing 95% better than all traders and investors regardless of expertise by simply investing in an S&P 500 index fund.Usually you'll do better with an index fund like the S&P 500. Brokers are the modern day equivalent of astrologers and soothsayers.
Over the very long term, with no use of technical or fundamental analysis, one has a 95% chance of doing 95% better than all traders and investors regardless of expertise by simply investing in an S&P 500 index fund.Usually you'll do better with an index fund like the S&P 500. Brokers are the modern day equivalent of astrologers and soothsayers.