neilgodfrey
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- May 29, 2022
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I get so wrapped up in the argument, I get loud and even rude. I apologize. Let me see if I can make some essential points more calmly.
Although Richard Carrier claims to uses Bayesian analysis, I think his method is sadly lacking. In Bayesian analysis, the probability that Jesus of Nazareth was a historical person is given by
\(P_{J,N,is,historic} = \frac{P(P_g|H)}{P(P_g|M) + P(P_g|H)}\)where Pg is the probability that Christianity became an active 1st-century religion.
But what are the actual values of P(P_g|H) or P(P_g|M) ? To address this, we must answer questions like
Obviously I've chosen these example questions to "advance" my case, but don't get hung up on that. There are dozens of other likelihoods we'd need to consider, and some of them would favor the mythicists. The above examples were just to give an idea of how real, valid Bayesian analysis MUST work.
- Are people more likely to be fervent about a charismatic healer or preacher they saw with their own eyes? Or a fable told them about a personality from the previous century? And, more specifically, what are the relative likelihoods?
- Would a fisherman, let's call him Peter, be more likely to preach a new religion if he were inspired by a real person? Or if he were playing out his role in a drunken game of 'Truth or Dare'?
- If Peter asked his pal Mark to compose a story about a crucifixee, would Mark be more likely to pick a real one — there were many to choose from — or just compose a fiction?
The point is that no "Bayesian analysis" can be done without incorporating these likelihoods into the equation. I do not pretend to know what these probabilities would be, but I HOPE it's clear that we cannot apply Bayes unless we have some estimates for these likelihoods. Richard Carrier babbles about Bayes but does not even understand this much! It's difficult for me to even look at the probability-estimation parts of his writings without thinking "What an ignorant pretentious twit."
Whether a crucifixee came from Nazareth or not had little if any effect on mythologisms of the 2nd century. Anything from the 3rd or 4th century is completely off-topic in this thread, and even 2nd-century writings are of interest only if they shed light on specific 1st-century witnessing. This is why I ask mythicists here to help me understand their view of the Christians and/or Chrestians in Rome during the reign of Nero, only a few decades after the alleged crucifixion.
I do not expect mythicists to provide a detailed summary of the exact myth-making — it could have played out in many different ways. But it doesn't seem like too much to ask for the mythicists to present at least ONE (1) scenario. Let the scenario begin by discussing the Chrestians of Rome.
Yet ZERO of the mythicists here have deigned to say a word about that, or at least offered a view that doesn't fall apart on inspection. Would it be rude to say this is disappointing?
That's not how historians use Bayes. The questions you have raised for probability estimates actually beg the question of historicity. They assume situations that would exist if the core of the gospel story is historical -- which is what we are trying to determine, so we can't begin with that assumption.
Bayesian reasoning is applied to the actual evidence before us. That is what Carrier has done and in that respect, for all his faults in other areas, he has applied Bayesian reasoning in history correctly.