The New Hampshire Primaries

[Cheerful Charlie]

Onwards to New Hampshire. Place your Bets now.

Latest from Huffington Post Polling

Republicans

• Donald Trump 33.8%
• Ted Cruz 12.1%
• John Kasich 10.8%
• Marco Rubio 9.9%
• Jeb Bush 9.4%
• Chris Christie 5.5%
• Carly Fiorina 3.4%
• Ben Carson 3.3%

Democrats

56% Bernie Sanders
37% Hillary Clinton

The now bitter and acrimonious controversy erupting between Trump and Cruz is interesting and its going to be fun to see how that affects the next primary. Will Jeb recover? Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa. Carson is not doing so well here.

Alright political junkies, sound off!

 

[Nice Squirrel]

FOX News: And Rubio moves into fourth place! Can anything stop this candidate?

 

[Keith&Co.]

Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa.

How would that work?
Who steals my purse steals trash, but who steals Iowa... Um. Well, they've all been stumping to win Iowa, and at the last minute everyone's saying 'Hey, winning Iowa isn't that important in the long run.'

So what court would have jurisdiction, anyway? The court of public opinion? Tump doesn't look enough of a whiny crybaby yet, he wants more?

 

[funinspace]

Well, I strongly doubt that Cruz will be even able to get 2nd place, as his brand does very poorly in NH, never mind also ran Carson. I think most already consider Bush a dead man walking. So the question in my mind is whether or not Kasich or Christie will catch fire and make it hard for Rubio to run a strong second or even challenge Trump. If I were Trump, I'd work hard to thwart any surge by Rubio...and ignore Cruz; with the long term goal to make it a choice between him and Cruz as the circus music plays on.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We'll see. It comes down to Rubio and any bounce from Iowa. He needs all of the establishment support he can get. Meanwhile, the other establishment folk were putting all their eggs into the New Hampshire basket. So, unless Kasich and Bush bow out and kiss his ring, he'll have trouble garnering support from people that otherwise think Cruz and Trump are Presidential.

Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa.

How would that work?
Who steals my purse steals trash, but who steals Iowa... Um. Well, they've all been stumping to win Iowa, and at the last minute everyone's saying 'Hey, winning Iowa isn't that important in the long run.'

So what court would have jurisdiction, anyway? The court of public opinion? Tump doesn't look enough of a whiny crybaby yet, he wants more?

I think he is complaining about the fraudulent mailers Cruz's team was responsible for.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa.

How would that work?
Who steals my purse steals trash, but who steals Iowa... Um. Well, they've all been stumping to win Iowa, and at the last minute everyone's saying 'Hey, winning Iowa isn't that important in the long run.'

So what court would have jurisdiction, anyway? The court of public opinion? Tump doesn't look enough of a whiny crybaby yet, he wants more?

http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-lawsuit-iowa-caucus-ted-cruz-2016-2

After accusing his Republican presidential rival Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas of illegally stealing a win from the Iowa caucuses, Donald Trump said Wednesday that he would "probably" sue over the results of the vote.


Trump said this in an interview on Boston Herald Radio that was flagged by BuzzFeed.
When asked whether he would file a formal complaint over the caucuses' results, Trump said, "Probably."
"What he did is unthinkable," Trump said, later calling Cruz a "really fraudulent" character.

----


So he seems to be taking this rather personally. Or maybe, this is how Trump makes deals. Or he is just shooting off his mouth like A drunken bully in a bar. I wonder if this sort of thin skinned kind of raving will eventually hurt him or not.

 

[Derec]

FOX News: And Rubio moves into fourth place! Can anything stop this candidate?

According to that poll, places 2-5 are all within MOE. So anything can happen (except that Trump will most likely win), especially since there is another debate on Saturday.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

We'll see. It comes down to Rubio and any bounce from Iowa. He needs all of the establishment support he can get. Meanwhile, the other establishment folk were putting all their eggs into the New Hampshire basket. So, unless Kasich and Bush bow out and kiss his ring, he'll have trouble garnering support from people that otherwise think Cruz and Trump are Presidential.

How would that work?
Who steals my purse steals trash, but who steals Iowa... Um. Well, they've all been stumping to win Iowa, and at the last minute everyone's saying 'Hey, winning Iowa isn't that important in the long run.'

So what court would have jurisdiction, anyway? The court of public opinion? Tump doesn't look enough of a whiny crybaby yet, he wants more?

I think he is complaining about the fraudulent mailers Cruz's team was responsible for.

From Buzzfeed

Donald Trump says he will probably sue over the results of the Iowa caucuses, accusing Ted Cruz of committing voter fraud to win.
In an interview on Boston Herald Radio on Wednesday, Trump criticized the Cruz campaign for spreading a CNN report saying Ben Carson would not travel to New Hampshire and South Carolina after the Iowa caucuses, suggesting Carson was getting out of the race. Cruz apologized to Carson on Tuesday for his campaign not sending out updates that Carson was doing laundry and not dropping out.
“One of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen. They said he was quitting the race and to vote for him,” said Trump.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Here are the latest polls from Florida where the voters have experience with Bush and Rubio

• Donald Trump 39.7%
• Ted Cruz 19.1%
• Marco Rubio 15.7%
• Jeb Bush 6.6%
• Ben Carson 5.1%
• Chris Christie 3.1%
• John Kasich 2.0%
• Rand Paul
• Carly Fiorina 1.9%
• Mike Huckabee
• Jim Gilmore

 

[dismal]

My general theory: Trump poll support is overstated because people like fucking with pollsters.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

My general theory: Trump poll support is overstated because people like fucking with pollsters.

Looking at how various polls seem divergent, my theory is that a right wing pollee is less likely to hang up on a pollster if it is say Fox Polls calling. And a progressive voter less likely to hang up on say, Quinnipiac pollsters. So polling is still somewhat self selecting and biased. One reason people don't like these polls is because many of them take quite a bit of time. A lot of questions get asked. And some local pollsters seem to like to do push polling which isn't helping people's willingness to do polling.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

My general theory: Trump poll support is overstated because people like fucking with pollsters.

Trump's vote pull-in in Iowa was within the margin of error. Also, New Hampshire is nuts.

 

[Sarpedon]

I predict no Bush recovery. He's a joke now. The big question is if Rubio can get to his 3-2-1 goal. Seems like a strategy that won't work, but I was surprised that he got such a strong third in Iowa, so who am I to poo-poo? The question is whether Kasich will steal his thunder, or if he'll get the panicked establishment voters in a mini surge that will be enough to put him over Cruz.

I'd love to see Kasich throw the wrench in the works though. That's my hope for the outcome. Trump will get his big win that will keep him from imploding, Kasich gets second, screwing up the establishment rallying around one candidate for at least another state, with Cruz getting third with Rubio back with Bush and the nut crowd.

I'd either like it to be Sanders Vs Trump, or Cruz vs Hillary, with establishment republicans preferring to cross over and vote for Hillary. (or stay at home)

 

[TV and credit cards]

Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa.

His excuse to break his pledge to support the Republican nominee.

If the people just can't stomach another Bush, Rubio is the youngish GOP face they want up against Hillary's bags and baggage.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Trump is threatening lawsuits over his loss in Iowa.

His excuse to break his pledge to support the Republican nominee.

If the people just can't stomach another Bush, Rubio is the youngish GOP face they want up against Hillary's bags and baggage.

Rubio has baggage to (just not putting every American secret up on Usenet), though moreover about not being able to balance a checkbook.

 

[braces_for_impact]

My general theory: Trump poll support is overstated because people like fucking with pollsters.

My theory is that Trump's supporters don't translate into voters. They like the way Trump "tells it like it is" with regards to how all these dark people are causing all of our country's problems, but to go out and caucus? Pfft, that would require getting off the couch and putting a shirt on over the wife-beater.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Post Iowa, Trump's numbers drop nationwaide

[h=2]February 04, 2016[/h] [h=3]Republican Race Tightens Nationally; Clinton Still Solid[/h] PPP’s newest national poll finds the race on the Republican side tightening considerably in the wake of Donald Trump’s surprise loss in Iowa on Monday night. Trump’s lead has fallen to just 4 points- he’s at 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 11% for Ben Carson, 5% each for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and the now departed Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, and 1% for Jim Gilmore. Rick Santorum had literally zero supporters on our final poll including him.

----


Could it be the Trump bubble is bursting?

 

[Sarpedon]

All it would take is a win in NH to reinflate him.

And how boring would a two man race between Cruz and Rubio be? Two no-accomplishment, know-nothing, cuban american Senators, fighting over who can say 'bomb muslims' in the most emphatic way?

 

[TV and credit cards]

His excuse to break his pledge to support the Republican nominee.

If the people just can't stomach another Bush, Rubio is the youngish GOP face they want up against Hillary's bags and baggage.

Rubio has baggage to (just not putting every American secret up on Usenet), though moreover about not being able to balance a checkbook.

Yeah but, how well known are Rubio's shortcomings? Hillary's junk is really exposed. A Hillary/Rubio contest could be quite a battle. On the other hand, Bernie is true to the cause. If enough people are shown the light that berns so bright and Trump goes rogue, we could see a social democrat in the Oval Office.
And gun sales skyrocket.

 

[TV and credit cards]

My general theory: Trump poll support is overstated because people like fucking with pollsters.

My theory is that Trump's supporters don't translate into voters. They like the way Trump "tells it like it is" with regards to how all these dark people are causing all of our country's problems, but to go out and caucus? Pfft, that would require getting off the couch and putting a shirt on over the wife-beater.

Yeah. And all black teens walk around with their pants falling off their asses.