The odd of winning... when computers are involved

[Jimmy Higgins]

I always ponder about computers and chance. When I play Cribbage on the smart phone, I wonder, is the outcome of the game in part based on the timing of the play. IE, when cutting the cards, if I waited one second to select a card, will the outcome for the computer's card be different? When getting the hands, if I wait a couple seconds will I draw a better or worse hand than if I don't wait, same with the computer. Of course, that all depends on whether the deck is determined before hand or once the cards become drawn.

So this then takes me to the lottery. You have the Ye Olde Lottery number machine that generates your auto-pick. Presumably it does this at random. Equally presumably, it does so based on a random number generator which is likely hooked to the timer. You stand in front of this machine. You tell the 7-11 worker you would like 5 tickets. What numbers will be generated are based on when the request for the tickets is made. However, what if you asked for the tickets two seconds earlier, one minute later? In the span of 60 seconds or how about 2 hours, is it possible that the winning lottery numbers are there to be randomly selected, but you are stuck, having to pick the exact right moment to ask for them? The perfect moment when what will ultimately be selected at 10:59 PM ET will be the same that pop out of the computer?

What are we looking at, possibly 100 different combinations to be spit out by the machine a second (based on how quickly a button can be pressed to get a number)? That within one minute, it is possible for the machine to offer 6000 different number. Within an hour 360,000, within a day, 8,640,000.

 

[Malintent]

I always ponder about computers and chance. When I play Cribbage on the smart phone, I wonder, is the outcome of the game in part based on the timing of the play. IE, when cutting the cards, if I waited one second to select a card, will the outcome for the computer's card be different? When getting the hands, if I wait a couple seconds will I draw a better or worse hand than if I don't wait, same with the computer. Of course, that all depends on whether the deck is determined before hand or once the cards become drawn.

So this then takes me to the lottery. You have the Ye Olde Lottery number machine that generates your auto-pick. Presumably it does this at random. Equally presumably, it does so based on a random number generator which is likely hooked to the timer. You stand in front of this machine. You tell the 7-11 worker you would like 5 tickets. What numbers will be generated are based on when the request for the tickets is made. However, what if you asked for the tickets two seconds earlier, one minute later? In the span of 60 seconds or how about 2 hours, is it possible that the winning lottery numbers are there to be randomly selected, but you are stuck, having to pick the exact right moment to ask for them? The perfect moment when what will ultimately be selected at 10:59 PM ET will be the same that pop out of the computer?

What are we looking at, possibly 100 different combinations to be spit out by the machine a second (based on how quickly a button can be pressed to get a number)? That within one minute, it is possible for the machine to offer 6000 different number. Within an hour 360,000, within a day, 8,640,000.

commonly, the number of milliseconds past the current second of the day is an 'indeterminate' value used... but better random number generators take many other metrics into consideration, to avoid the possibility of timing a call just perfectly to get the number you want (non-random). for example, the computer's fan speed (which wavers constantly), the number of disk reads/writes per second at that moment in time, along with some metrics of RAM usage, all can be considered together in that same millisecond to construct an indeterminable (not purely random) value.

So, it is not just the time of the day.. but the instantaneous usage metrics of the system that also comes into play.

computers can only follow the specific instructions you give them.. they cannot produce pure random numbers. Some argue nothing can be random, even in organic systems, so the best we can do is produce highly indeterminable numbers.

 

[TSwizzle]

That's why I am always wary about "gambling" in Vegas. Is it really a game of chance when the gambling board state that the minimum payout must be 95% of input ? (or something along those lines). So when you play video poke/blackjack or the slots, you are pretty much screwed over the long term.

In the lottery, isn't the draw for winning numbers truly random though ? I think the winning balls are spat out of some sort of drum with a wind machine.

 

[Malintent]

That's why I am always wary about "gambling" in Vegas. Is it really a game of chance when the gambling board state that the minimum payout must be 95% of input ? (or something along those lines). So when you play video poke/blackjack or the slots, you are pretty much screwed over the long term.

In the lottery, isn't the draw for winning numbers truly random though ? I think the winning balls are spat out of some sort of drum with a wind machine.

So wind operates supernaturally with no physical laws governing? It is not 'random', it is 'indeterminate', due to the high number of variables that are not easily calculable. The best we can say is that it is 'sufficiently random', given people's ability to measure all of the variables in time for it to matter.
The simplest example is the roll of dice. you are throwing a 'close to perfect' cube.. only the most basic laws of Newtonian physics are at play. however, the ability to measure the exact force applied to the dice with the throw, the orientation of the cube at release, and the dynamic of the collision and friction with the table surface, and the bounce, and the wind resistance in flight... all are way too many subtle variables to calculate in any useful way.

 

[TSwizzle]

Well that and if it is allah's will, the number I want will come up. OK, so technically nothing is random

 

[bilby]

I always ponder about computers and chance. When I play Cribbage on the smart phone, I wonder, is the outcome of the game in part based on the timing of the play. IE, when cutting the cards, if I waited one second to select a card, will the outcome for the computer's card be different? When getting the hands, if I wait a couple seconds will I draw a better or worse hand than if I don't wait, same with the computer. Of course, that all depends on whether the deck is determined before hand or once the cards become drawn.

So this then takes me to the lottery. You have the Ye Olde Lottery number machine that generates your auto-pick. Presumably it does this at random. Equally presumably, it does so based on a random number generator which is likely hooked to the timer. You stand in front of this machine. You tell the 7-11 worker you would like 5 tickets. What numbers will be generated are based on when the request for the tickets is made. However, what if you asked for the tickets two seconds earlier, one minute later? In the span of 60 seconds or how about 2 hours, is it possible that the winning lottery numbers are there to be randomly selected, but you are stuck, having to pick the exact right moment to ask for them? The perfect moment when what will ultimately be selected at 10:59 PM ET will be the same that pop out of the computer?

What are we looking at, possibly 100 different combinations to be spit out by the machine a second (based on how quickly a button can be pressed to get a number)? That within one minute, it is possible for the machine to offer 6000 different number. Within an hour 360,000, within a day, 8,640,000.

It doesn't matter.

The auto pick has exactly the same chance of being the winning ticket no matter what numbers are on it; all that really matters is that - in the extremely unlikely event that you win - not many other players end up with the same numbers as you, so you don't have to share the prize with many others.

Regardless of what numbers are on your ticket, the numbers drawn, if random, have the same probability of matching them. (And that probability is close enough to zero as to make very little difference).

 

[J842P]

That's why I am always wary about "gambling" in Vegas. Is it really a game of chance when the gambling board state that the minimum payout must be 95% of input ? (or something along those lines). So when you play video poke/blackjack or the slots, you are pretty much screwed over the long term.

I am confused. Are you under the impression that the mechanical games you play don't have a long-term negative expected payout?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I always ponder about computers and chance. When I play Cribbage on the smart phone, I wonder, is the outcome of the game in part based on the timing of the play. IE, when cutting the cards, if I waited one second to select a card, will the outcome for the computer's card be different? When getting the hands, if I wait a couple seconds will I draw a better or worse hand than if I don't wait, same with the computer. Of course, that all depends on whether the deck is determined before hand or once the cards become drawn.

So this then takes me to the lottery. You have the Ye Olde Lottery number machine that generates your auto-pick. Presumably it does this at random. Equally presumably, it does so based on a random number generator which is likely hooked to the timer. You stand in front of this machine. You tell the 7-11 worker you would like 5 tickets. What numbers will be generated are based on when the request for the tickets is made. However, what if you asked for the tickets two seconds earlier, one minute later? In the span of 60 seconds or how about 2 hours, is it possible that the winning lottery numbers are there to be randomly selected, but you are stuck, having to pick the exact right moment to ask for them? The perfect moment when what will ultimately be selected at 10:59 PM ET will be the same that pop out of the computer?

What are we looking at, possibly 100 different combinations to be spit out by the machine a second (based on how quickly a button can be pressed to get a number)? That within one minute, it is possible for the machine to offer 6000 different number. Within an hour 360,000, within a day, 8,640,000.

It doesn't matter.

In a practical sense, no it isn't doesn't. But doesn't it matter at least in the hypothetical. The computer is going to give you any number of predestined combinations won't it?

 

[fromderinside]

It doesn't matter.

In a practical sense, no it isn't doesn't. But doesn't it matter at least in the hypothetical. The computer is going to give you any number of predestined combinations won't it?

If one has enough of the factors programmed in including histories and one models on those histories and attributes of 'random' generator devices one can do as good a job as does Nate Silver's 538 for political outcomes. For instance I bought 5 tickets and only got two of the winning numbers across all sequences I received. I expect a good computer model could get me up to fifteen numbers from that set in the group I received. I might have actually won several thousand dollars. There are biases in anything that can be measured or predicted.

 

[rousseau]

Short answer: the odds of winning when a computer is involved is whatever whoever programmed the computer determined the odds should be.

 

[skepticalbip]

Short answer: the odds of winning when a computer is involved is whatever whoever programmed the computer determined the odds should be.

That is one way to do it. However the programmer could try for purely random results but set the payout to take advantage of the odds. e.g. a game with 50:1 odds of winning could have the payout set at 45 times the bet.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Short answer: the odds of winning when a computer is involved is whatever whoever programmed the computer determined the odds should be.

I'm not asking based on a computer based game. I am talking about the set of numbers a computer can give out in a one minute period of time to match up with the selected numbers in a Powerball drawing.

 

[Malintent]

Short answer: the odds of winning when a computer is involved is whatever whoever programmed the computer determined the odds should be.

I'm not asking based on a computer based game. I am talking about the set of numbers a computer can give out in a one minute period of time to match up with the selected numbers in a Powerball drawing.

The is purely a function of flops (operations per second). Theoretically, millions per second... but the randomization would be pretty poor (as in, potentially predictable).

 

[TSwizzle]

That's why I am always wary about "gambling" in Vegas. Is it really a game of chance when the gambling board state that the minimum payout must be 95% of input ? (or something along those lines). So when you play video poke/blackjack or the slots, you are pretty much screwed over the long term.

I am confused. Are you under the impression that the mechanical games you play don't have a long-term negative expected payout?

No, not at all, the games are all rigged for x% payout. But in the case of video poker or blackjack, I wonder how they rig the machine. How well is that deck being shuffled ? or not.

 

[skepticalbip]

I am confused. Are you under the impression that the mechanical games you play don't have a long-term negative expected payout?

No, not at all, the games are all rigged for x% payout. But in the case of video poker or blackjack, I wonder how they rig the machine. How well is that deck being shuffled ? or not.

I don't have a clue how Vegas does the video card games but the gaming commission likely requires and checks that the cards are dealt randomly. I don't know how the casino guarantees themselves an edge in poker but in blackjack the odds are with the house unless the player is a card counter. But then a shuffle between each deal will make card counting useless.

 

[Malintent]

No, not at all, the games are all rigged for x% payout. But in the case of video poker or blackjack, I wonder how they rig the machine. How well is that deck being shuffled ? or not.

I don't have a clue how Vegas does the video card games but the gaming commission likely requires and checks that the cards are dealt randomly. I don't know how the casino guarantees themselves an edge in poker but in blackjack the odds are with the house unless the player is a card counter. But then a shuffle between each deal will make card counting useless.

shuffling after each deal would reduce the overall take, since the total number of games per timeframe would be significantly less.
their solution to card counting is by utilizing multiple decks.

In games where multiple decks cannot be used (poker - 5 of a kind, anyone?), the pace of the game is mitigated by the odds.

For electronic games, the payout is regulated by the gaming board. The game programmatically ensures a specific payout. While each game is random, the daily take has to be less than 100% (probably what another poster was mentioning about the 95% rule). In other words, for electronic games, there is such a thing as a 'hot' or 'cold' machine that is 'due' to pay out or not.

Common technique for advanced slots players... observe the players around you. When someone is on a loosing streak and leaves a machine that has wiped them out, that machine is 'hot' and is likely due to payout (it has to, eventually, by law).

 

[Juma]

When someone is on a loosing streak and leaves a machine that has wiped them out, that machine is 'hot' and is likely due to payout (it has to, eventually, by law).

Really? Do you state that there us a regulation stating that each nachine has to payoff a certain amount per day?

 

[TSwizzle]

Really? Do you state that there us a regulation stating that each nachine has to payoff a certain amount per day?

The state of Nevada has a minimum payout percentage which I think is about 85% of takings but the casinos say they pay higher. So basically for every dollar spent, they keep about 95c.

The native American casinos are a bit cagey about what their payouts are.

 

[Juma]

Really? Do you state that there us a regulation stating that each nachine has to payoff a certain amount per day?

The state of Nevada has a minimum payout percentage which I think is about 85% of takings but the casinos say they pay higher. So basically for every dollar spent, they keep about 95c.

The native American casinos are a bit cagey about what their payouts are.

That wasnt an answer to my question: is there a limit per machine?

 

[skepticalbip]

I don't have a clue how Vegas does the video card games but the gaming commission likely requires and checks that the cards are dealt randomly. I don't know how the casino guarantees themselves an edge in poker but in blackjack the odds are with the house unless the player is a card counter. But then a shuffle between each deal will make card counting useless.

shuffling after each deal would reduce the overall take, since the total number of games per timeframe would be significantly less.
their solution to card counting is by utilizing multiple decks.

In games where multiple decks cannot be used (poker - 5 of a kind, anyone?), the pace of the game is mitigated by the odds.

For electronic games, the payout is regulated by the gaming board. The game programmatically ensures a specific payout. While each game is random, the daily take has to be less than 100% (probably what another poster was mentioning about the 95% rule). In other words, for electronic games, there is such a thing as a 'hot' or 'cold' machine that is 'due' to pay out or not.

Common technique for advanced slots players... observe the players around you. When someone is on a loosing streak and leaves a machine that has wiped them out, that machine is 'hot' and is likely due to payout (it has to, eventually, by law).

That sounds like an example of the gambler's fallacy. That is unless you are saying that the gaming commission requires the casino's to fiddle with the odds of winning by making the slot nonrandom rather than by setting the payout to give the house an edge.

I don't know but seriously doubt that the casinos are required by law to intentionally rig the slots to give nonrandom results.