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The Odds are.......

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...-new-wisconsin-poll-that-has-biden-way-ahead/

538. As the days to election day get close, the polls are getting weird. And better for Biden.

...
Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisconsin was just such a poll. It showed Joe Biden 17 points (not a typo) ahead of President Trump, 57 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters. To put it mildly, this is a stunning margin in what is supposed to be one of the most competitive swing states in the country — a place that Trump carried by less than 1 percentage point in 2016.
...

Iowa. Biden is leading Trump by 5.0% in some of the latest polls.
Minnesota is up in some polls as much as +14% for Biden
Michigan - Recent polls say Biden is up as much as 13%

Why? Possibly covid-19, now sweeping the upper Midwest is hammering home the fact that Trump is incompetent. we have had enough time for Trump's many failures here to reach enough people that it is going to cost the Orange Clown.

This evening, from 538
Iowa - Biden is up +1.6%
North Carolina - Biden is up +2.1%
Florida - Biden is up +1.5% trump is gaining here but still behind
Georgia - Biden is up +1.4%

If Biden sweeps the upper Midwest, all he needs one of these to make it impossible to win, and if Florida goes to Trump one of the remaining states flipping to Biden makes Biden president.
 
Again, as you say, light a candle. Everyone I know and dialogue with is expecting The Royal Loaded Diaper to be the biggest sore loser in history, and to have a nasty prolonged tantrum. His followers will not perceive it as a disgrace, because they are unable to detect the disgrace inherent in every day of this man's abhorrent, morally corrosive administration. I want him to go quickly, but that is not the Trump way. He's busy this week spreading a plague. God knows what he'll be doing next Wednesday.
 
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurr...ndfall-new-orleans_n_5f99f06ac5b6c7fe582b8eb5

Hurricane Zeta has made landfall in Louisiana and will be moving East bringing good rain all the way to the Atlantic coast. This may we\ll affect voting. Standing in line three hours to vote as it rains heavily may be a problem in areas where the GOP voters waited to vote in person, while Democrats voted early. Wear your hip waders Republicans!
 
I bet my partner that Biden is going to win. If I lose, I have to seriously investigate on his proposal to move us to Europe.
 
Here's a good one. The "price" of each state is the cost for a "yes" for red or blue. A winning bet is worth $1.00.


usmap10-28.JPG

And there's an interactive version HERE
 
Someone should tell the Trump kids that this may be the last big cash grab. Put a big dime on Sleepy J on the 3rd. Barron can throw in his lunch money. It'll make their dad proud! (Really, because it's the cash, children. The cassssshhhhhhh.)
 
If Trump loses, the only big bucks to be made will be from lawyers. Well, maybe not. Trump has had a big problem in the past stiffing lawyers. Many very good law firms will not even return Trump's calls.
 
Elixir said:
Here's a good one. The "price" of each state is the cost for a "yes" for red or blue. A winning bet is worth $1.00.
Click to expand...
Seems a lot tighter than poll based maps. If Biden loses the two pale blue states, Pennsylvania and New Mexico, it's over.
Pennsylvania may be vulnerable because of fracking and rioting in Philadelphia.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hurr...ndfall-new-orleans_n_5f99f06ac5b6c7fe582b8eb5

Hurricane Zeta has made landfall in Louisiana and will be moving East bringing good rain all the way to the Atlantic coast. This may we\ll affect voting. Standing in line three hours to vote as it rains heavily may be a problem in areas where the GOP voters waited to vote in person, while Democrats voted early. Wear your hip waders Republicans!
Click to expand...

ζ will be offshore by tomorrow night, so it won't affect next Tuesday's voting. It might well affect in-person early voting tomorrow though.
 
Betting markets are an interesting way to predict the results, because in theory they take account all the information available, not just polls but also what the turnout is going to be, people not being honest or changing their mind, and voter suppression. But on the other hand, large groups of people can still be deluded as to what's going on. In 2016 the betting markets did worse predicting Trump victory than 538's polling aggregate.
 
Jayjay said:
Betting markets are an interesting way to predict the results, because in theory they take account all the information available, not just polls but also what the turnout is going to be, people not being honest or changing their mind, and voter suppression. But on the other hand, large groups of people can still be deluded as to what's going on. In 2016 the betting markets did worse predicting Trump victory than 538's polling aggregate.
Click to expand...

I still regret not buying a lot of "nos" on Bernie when his market was flying high. I knew from the beginning that the mainstream Democrats would never let him win, and rightly so because he would have been a disaster in the general.
 
Derec said:
Coleman Smith said:
(Be aware that betting on politics is illegal in the US).
Click to expand...
Prediction markets like PredictIt seem to be legal though, and that's a distinction without a difference.
Click to expand...

(Nitpick: Predictit is allowed to operate because of its strict limits on wager size.)

Jayjay said:
Betting markets are an interesting way to predict the results, because in theory they take account all the information available, not just polls but also what the turnout is going to be, people not being honest or changing their mind, and voter suppression. But on the other hand, large groups of people can still be deluded as to what's going on. In 2016 the betting markets did worse predicting Trump victory than 538's polling aggregate.
Click to expand...

Poll numbers are not (directly) probability predictions. Are there archived pages to confirm your claim here? Anyway, predictions prior to Oct 28, 2016, did not account for James Comey's bizarre last-minute "decision" to help Trump, making revelations that might have had little impact a few weeks earlier.)
 
Swammerdami said:
(Nitpick: Predictit is allowed to operate because of its strict limits on wager size.)

Jayjay said:
Betting markets are an interesting way to predict the results, because in theory they take account all the information available, not just polls but also what the turnout is going to be, people not being honest or changing their mind, and voter suppression. But on the other hand, large groups of people can still be deluded as to what's going on. In 2016 the betting markets did worse predicting Trump victory than 538's polling aggregate.
Click to expand...

Poll numbers are not (directly) probability predictions. Are there archived pages to confirm your claim here? Anyway, predictions prior to Oct 28, 2016, did not account for James Comey's bizarre last-minute "decision" to help Trump, making revelations that might have had little impact a few weeks earlier.)
Click to expand...

I got it from an article on 538, which referred to this page.
 
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