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The Remarkable Progress of Renewable Energy

Cost of Solar Power vs Cost of Wind Power, Coal, Nuclear, & Natural Gas This was back in late 2016, but even then, wind and solar energy were beating nuclear energy. However, that is very recent, and earlier wind and solar installations are likely more costly.

So I don't know how Michael Shellenberger did his calculations, and why he seems to think that nuclear reactors don't need peaker plants.
 
Cost of Solar Power vs Cost of Wind Power, Coal, Nuclear, & Natural Gas This was back in late 2016, but even then, wind and solar energy were beating nuclear energy. However, that is very recent, and earlier wind and solar installations are likely more costly.

So I don't know how Michael Shellenberger did his calculations, and why he seems to think that nuclear reactors don't need peaker plants.

Cleantechnica is junk. They have no regard whatsoever for the truth, and are completely and demonstrably unreliable as a source. They lost all credibility for me here.

Nuclear reactors don't need anywhere CLOSE to the backup that solar and wind do. A handful of pumped storage hydro facilities can support a largely nuclear grid, as France and Ontario demonstrate.

Solar and Wind power above a few percent of total generation today, invariably and inevitably leads to the burning of LOTS of gas; and the only other option is VAST amounts of hugely expensive battery storage. IF you want to consider these sources as 'clean', THEN you are forced to either include the HUGE cost of non-fossil fuel backups, or you are simply getting your numbers wrong. Cleantechnica are happy with the latter; I am not.

If California and Germany had followed the lead of France and Ontario, then they could easily have been as low in emissions as those places today, for the cost of less than they have already spent on wind and solar - and yet they are not even close. Cleantechnica have an agenda to ignore these unpleasant but easily demonstrable facts. I don't recommend their approach to anyone who values honesty.

The results speak for themselves:

https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=DE
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=US-CA
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=FR
https://www.electricitymap.org/?page=country&solar=false&remote=true&wind=false&countryCode=CA-ON
 
Total cost over the long run from nuclear is higher than any other source. This includes development costs, maintenance, and longevity.

On case you have not noticed solar and wind energy, photons and wind, are free.

Advances in solar cells have widened the radiation spectrum they resend to, along with stacking and internal reflection to maximize photon absorption.
 
Total cost over the long run from nuclear is higher than any other source. This includes development costs, maintenance, and longevity.

On case you have not noticed solar and wind energy, photons and wind, are free.

Advances in solar cells have widened the radiation spectrum they resend to, along with stacking and internal reflection to maximize photon absorption.

Uranium is free. It's just sitting in the ground waiting to be dug up.

Converting it (or wind, or photons) into electricity, and supplying it to customers, is not.

Nuclear fission remains by far the cheapest long term carbon neutral way to provide consistent and reliable electricity, with the possible exception of the (FAR more dangerous) hydroelectricity.
 
The same can be said of *any* energy resource -- there is nothing special about uranium there. By that standard, coal and oil and natural gas are all free. But a problem with fossil fuels and uranium (or thorium) is that they have to be extracted and then transported to where they will be used. Renewable sources tend to be free from this problem, with biofuels being the main exception.

Reverse Power Flow: How Solar+Batteries Shift Electric Grid Decision Making From Utilities To Consumers (In Depth) | CleanTechnica
Economic defection –– when electricity customers produce most of their own electricity –– is not only possible, but rapidly becoming cost-effective. As the flow of power on the grid has shifted one-way to two-way, so has the power to shape the electric grid’s future.

The shift of power into customer hands is already having three unintended consequences:
  • Legacy, baseload power plants are becoming financially inferior to clean energy competitors.
  • Electricity sales have stagnated as customers reduce use and produce electricity for themselves.
  • Communities are reaping greater economic rewards from power generation, as electric customers, individually and collectively, produce more locally.
I think that that is a bit naive, because there are plenty of high-density users of electricity, like the users of multistory office buildings and industrial users. Such users would find it very impractical to supply all their electricity with wind turbines and solar panels on their property, except perhaps as an emergency backup.

It's like the early years of desktop computers, when many people celebrated these devices as offering liberation from centralized big computers. But such big computers have continued to have reasons for existence -- and new ones also -- reasons that have made them coexist with the abundance of small computers that many people now have.

So utilities may end up focusing on their bigger customers and removing a lot of residential and rural wiring. Or else they may buy a lot of electricity from their residential and rural customers, as well as sell a lot of electricity to them.
Utility have also made reactionary moves, or made gestures inadequate to address the magnitude of system change. There tend to be three inadequate utility responses to the reversed flow of decision-making power:
  • Utilities have damaged their reputations by resisting customer interest in distributed energy resources, sending lobbyists to preempt or curtail policies that reward customer-sited and customer-owned power generation.
  • Utility investments in large-scale renewable energy have addressed environmental concerns, but these low-cost power purchases have not delivered reduce electricity prices for end users nor assuaged the interest in over 70 cities of reaching 100% renewable electricity more rapidly.
  • Utilities have deployed utility-owned distributed energy resources, but in ways that withhold much of the economic or financial benefit from customers.
 
The same can be said of *any* energy resource -- there is nothing special about uranium there. By that standard, coal and oil and natural gas are all free. But a problem with fossil fuels and uranium (or thorium) is that they have to be extracted and then transported to where they will be used. Renewable sources tend to be free from this problem, with biofuels being the main exception.
But that's true of wind and solar too. Wind doesn't convert itself into electricity; Nor do photons.

Wind turbines and solar panels need to be manufactured from mined resources. The idea that they are 'free' in some special way that other electricity sources are not is fucking stupid.
 
Utilities don’t have time to prepare for a future with economical, distributed energy storage because it’s on the doorstep. In 2016, the first hints of a storage-driven transformation of the electricity business came as a “postcard from the future” in Hawaii. Sunrun offered their Brightbox, a combination solar-plus-battery product with a price of 19 cents per kWh, almost 50% cheaper than grid electricity. Sunrun began offering its Brightbox service in California in December 2016. By 2018, 1 in 5 new residential Sunrun solar customers in California were choosing to add storage.
Then some maps showing the fractions of electricity users who may find solar+storage cheaper than utility electricity. For 2016, it is mostly in California, Arizona, New Mexico, and the New England states. For 2022, it will spread to many more states, mainly southwestern, southeastern, Great Lakes states, and Mid-Atlantic states. The states that will be left out will mostly be Appalachian and northwestern states.

California's solar-panel installations have progressed far enough to turn the traditional midday peak into a trough with two peaks on each side: morning and evening. Storage will be necessary to smooth out those peaks, and it is on its way.

The economics of coal and nuclear power plants have for years relied on operating at high capacities around the clock. But with energy efficiency and distributed energy lowering demand; utility-scale solar and wind cutting into sales with cheaper, cleaner electricity; and now, with the advent of energy storage, these power plants struggle to compete. Utilities operating non-competitive plants in Ohio and Illinois have sought subsidies to keep these “baseload” plants operating.
The article then continued with the retiring of a California nuclear power plane in a decade and the cancellation of a California natural-gas "peaker" plant, all from solar+storage now being competitive in that state. As solar+storage becomes cheaper and cheaper, more and and more states will scratch plans to build new peakers.

Toward the end is a list of benefits that energy storage can offer to electricity producers, distributors, and consumers.
  • Utilities
    • Increase renewable integration
    • Reduce dependency on fossil-fuel peaker plants
    • Reduce operating expenses
  • Grid operators
    • Balance electricity supply and demand
    • Improve power quality and reliability
    • Avoid costly system upgrades
  • Commercial Consumers
    • Keep critical equipment online during power disruptions
    • Reduce utility bills and generate revenue
  • Residential Consumers
    • Reliable backup power during severe weather and other blackouts
    • Reduce utility bills and generate revenue
All because of something provoked by renewable-energy development, but not, for whatever curious reason, nuclear-energy development.
 
The same can be said of *any* energy resource -- there is nothing special about uranium there. By that standard, coal and oil and natural gas are all free. But a problem with fossil fuels and uranium (or thorium) is that they have to be extracted and then transported to where they will be used. Renewable sources tend to be free from this problem, with biofuels being the main exception.
But that's true of wind and solar too. Wind doesn't convert itself into electricity; Nor do photons.
That's not what I had in mind. Wind and sunlight does not have to be sent in pipelines or trains or trucks or ships to wind turbines and solar panels. Similar things are true of hydroelectric and geothermal systems, and biofuels are an exception because fuel crops have to be transported to the powerplants.

Wind turbines and solar panels need to be manufactured from mined resources.
Just like other kinds of powerplants, including nuclear ones.

I think that mining of raw materials is something we will eventually have to address, especially as the easier ore bodies get used up. I expect that we will end up mining ordinary rock, seawater, and garbage dumps.
 
Wind turbines and solar panels need to be manufactured from mined resources.
Just like other kinds of powerplants, including nuclear ones.

Sure, but let's not make arbitrary distinctions between costs from manufacturing and maintenance and costs from extraction and transportation.
 
Total cost over the long run from nuclear is higher than any other source. This includes development costs, maintenance, and longevity.

On case you have not noticed solar and wind energy, photons and wind, are free.

Advances in solar cells have widened the radiation spectrum they resend to, along with stacking and internal reflection to maximize photon absorption.

Nuclear is expensive because the objectors have managed to impose so much red tape and especially delays. When the government does things like say you can't operate a perfectly good nuclear plant that you just built the "cost" of nuclear goes way up.
 
Total cost over the long run from nuclear is higher than any other source. This includes development costs, maintenance, and longevity.

On case you have not noticed solar and wind energy, photons and wind, are free.

Advances in solar cells have widened the radiation spectrum they resend to, along with stacking and internal reflection to maximize photon absorption.

Nuclear is expensive because the objectors have managed to impose so much red tape and especially delays. When the government does things like say you can't operate a perfectly good nuclear plant that you just built the "cost" of nuclear goes way up.

Bullshit.

It is all about profit. Nukes have a history of not being as profitable as planned.
 
Back about 10 years ago I worked on a project proposal at an engineering company rtrelated to commerxcial turbines.

As Part of my research I read a paper about a utility in the south west that built a solar plant. It is runing and connected to the grid.

It was easy to build. Commercial off the shelf solar panels. A lot of commercial off the shelf DC to AC inverters in parallel. Nothing special, the same units you could buy for a home system. Designed to work in parallel and interface to the grid.

Easy maintenance. With parallel redundancy inherent to the system replacing a panel or inverter was easy. No hazards.

No design required other than the wiring and structure to hold the panels and inverters. The inverertyers had a wide operating temperature range and required no cooling or housing. Rain resistant.

The only environmental complaint I have heard of was an objection to a propose large desert solar system because it might interfere with some small tiny desert critter.
 
Total cost over the long run from nuclear is higher than any other source. This includes development costs, maintenance, and longevity.

On case you have not noticed solar and wind energy, photons and wind, are free.

Advances in solar cells have widened the radiation spectrum they resend to, along with stacking and internal reflection to maximize photon absorption.

Nuclear is expensive because the objectors have managed to impose so much red tape and especially delays. When the government does things like say you can't operate a perfectly good nuclear plant that you just built the "cost" of nuclear goes way up.

Bullshit.

It is all about profit. Nukes have a history of not being as profitable as planned.

Of course it's about profit. I'm explaining what's causing it not to be profitable despite the economics saying it should be.
 
Bullshit.

It is all about profit. Nukes have a history of not being as profitable as planned.

Of course it's about profit. I'm explaining what's causing it not to be profitable despite the economics saying it should be.

Business Always complains taxes are too high and regulations are too tough. I doubt it is a limiting factor. JHaving worked in technology I can say some regulations may be too restrictive but in general are never a limiting factor.

Each nuke is a one of kind design. As anyone with experience knows a one of a kind design is always expensive. Wind and solar from home to commercial utility scale are off the shelf items so to speak.

A coal or gas fired plant can use off the shelf piping and systems.

As part of a national plan, which we will never have, nukes could a part of an overall strategy.

The common term is ' total cost of ownership'.

The cost of your car includes design cost amortized over a large volume of sales, dealer costs, and warranty repris. Add insurance and fuel costs.

The design cost for a nuke can not be spread out over many builds. ROI is solely on profit of one site. The total cost of ownership of a nuke includes engineering cost, maintenance, fuel, insurance, and waste management.

As I said before, if you want to treat a nuke like building a house in terms of regulations go for it.
 
How big is the global solar market?
"By 2023, the World Will Have 1 Trillion Watts of Installed Solar PV Capacity"
"By then, 1.4-cent solar contracts will be “old news."

I'm pleasantly surprised at the success of photovoltaic-cell technology. I expected solar-thermal technology to be the big winner.

Xcel Resource Planning Executive: We Can Buy New Renewables Cheaper Than Existing Fossil Fuels | Greentech Media
Xcel Energy has long been a leader in renewable energy, investing in wind and solar even when they were not the cheapest alternatives.

Today, however, the tables are turning. New wind and solar are often cheaper than existing coal generation. And Xcel is now moving to retire major coal plants and invest $2.5 billion in wind, solar and batteries to replace that generation — saving ratepayers up to $374 million.

Investments In Solid State Batteries Doubles, Sodium Ion Research Promising | CleanTechnica noting Solid Power raises $20 million to build all-solid-state batteries — Quartz
The race to build the next revolutionary battery is heating up. Just in the first half of 2018, investors have pumped into battery startups double the amount they invested in all of 2017.

Add to that list Solid Power, which just raised $20 million from the likes of Samsung, A123 Systems, and Hyundai Cradle. The startup has a working prototype of an all-solid-state, rechargeable, lithium-metal battery, which industry experts say could be the future of batteries used in consumer electronics and electric vehicles.
Making a lithium-ion battery solid state should eliminate a major source of fire risk for such batteries: liquid electrolytes and separators. This company's battery uses a solid-state electrolyte composed of lithium, sulfur, and phosphorus. It can be used for at least 200 charge/discharge cycles, and it has an energy density of 300 watt-hours/kg (1 MJ/kg), more than what Li-ion batteries can currently do, about 250 Wh/kg. But this battery only functions between room temperature and 150 C.

Back to the Cleantechnica article, it noted research on sodium-ion batteries. Why sodium? It is a chemical relative of lithium, but a much more common one.
Speaking of salt, researchers at the University of Birmingham are searching for ways to replace the lithium in today’s batteries with sodium. Lithium is in limited supply and could get quite expensive in coming years. Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates worldwide demand for batteries will explode from 100 gigawatt-hours (GWh) today to 1,500 GWh by 2030, which could send lithium prices through the roof. Some observers have gone so far as to suggest future wars may be fought over lithium instead of oil.

Sodium, by contrast, is plentiful and cheap, but it can’t just be substituted straight up for lithium. The researchers used advanced computational modeling to predict precisely how to make the switch. The computer modeling also showed how to create sodium ion anodes capable of handling 7 times more electrical charge than a graphite equivalent.
So if one can get a sodium-ion battery working, then it would get around the lithium problem very nicely.
 
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story...ss-passes-bill-to-help-advanced-nuclear-power

"In 2017 the state of Illinois agreed to offer a Zero Emissions Credit that included nuclear energy (PDF). The credit was opposed by fossil fuel generators and by the Electric Power Supply Association, who sued the director of the Illinois Power Agency. But the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) and the Department of Justice filed a joint brief in the case several months ago, saying those federal agencies had no problem with Illinois' credit system, according to Utility Dive."

---

Why we can't have nice things if the fossil fuel industry can help it.
 
Part of the problem with these kinds of discussions is that people get very pro-<whatever their preferred energy> and get so focused on that, that the big picture, and alternatives (ironically) get ignored.

There is no reason that nuclear can’t be used here in the US, as can be seen in other countries that make good use of it. For the record, much of the reason Germany has gone away from nuclear is the same as the US. i.e. mostly fear mongering and overblown sense of risk.

As for the regulation of nuclear industry, I’m not that familiar with it, but I agree from what I’ve seen that it is stupidly more regulated than coal/natural gas. And more regulated than the manufacture of PV and similar production. Once solar and wind parts are built, I imagine they are pretty safe.

The reason (I suspect) nuclear should be regulated more is the same reason commercial aircraft are regulated much more than cars. The potential for catastrophe is much higher if something does go badly. Whether or not it’s [/i]over[/i] regulated, I’m not qualified to say. I hear a lot of people say the same about aircraft, but I disagree, so I’m somewhat skeptical of those who claim that nuclear energy is over-regulated for the same reason. I’m also certain that oil, gas and coal are vastly under-regulated, but they’ve got a much longer history of lobbying, so there’s n uphill battle there.

Nuclear, wind, solar and hydro could all be used in the right, nationally integrated plan, but that would require a national level plan (individual states could do it, but it would be problematic at that scale, I suspect). So the odds of a good, comprehensive power plan ever happening in the US is miniscule, unfortunately.
 
If commercial aviation was as safe as nuclear power, there would have been just three plane crashes in the last sixty years, only one of which caused any fatalities.

But I tend to agree; Regulations to minimise risk are a good thing. We need sufficient regulation in the other power generation industries to bring their death and accident rates down to the same order of magnitude as nuclear.

Of course, that would make fossil fuel generation prohibitively expensive. But that's OK; We have safe alternatives. Wind and solar only need to become about five or ten times as safe as they are now, so that's achievable.

As to 'catastrophe', the worst possible nuclear accident would likely kill significantly fewer than a thousand people (the worst actual one so far killed around a hundred). Coal kills more than that every month in the USA, and more than that every day in China.

And hydroelectricity is responsible for the largest single power generation accident to date - 171,000 deaths and 11 million displaced in 1975. Say 'Three Mile Island' and everyone knows what you are talking about. Say 'Banqiao Dam', and most people need to resort to Google.
 
Cher noble, Fukishima, Three Mile Island.

Aircraft and nuclear safety is a false dichotomy. Staring in the 30s the deaths and casualties per 1000 hours of flight or per number of flights per year have dropped to a vey small value.

The actual failure rate of commercial jets are tiny. How many nukes gave been built since 1960 and how nanny failures and problems have occurred.
 
Well, and ignoring secondary death related to nuclear energy and weapons. Many miners have died and are dying from cancers caused by their mining activities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium_mining#United_States

Despite efforts made in cleaning up uranium sites, significant problems stemming from the legacy of uranium development still exist today on the Navajo Nation and in the states of Utah, Colorado, New Mexico, and Arizona. Hundreds of abandoned mines have not been cleaned up and present environmental and health risks in many communities.[53]
 
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