One of the background sounds in cities such as Lagos, Baghdad or Kabul is the heavy thrumming of diesel generators, which rise in pitch and volume as the grid-powered street lights dim with equipment failures or fuel shortages.
You can see another effect of the diesel gensets on global air quality maps, where the grid-poor and diesel-intensive cities glow red with pollution.
Now that thrum and haze are spreading across America, growing louder and dirtier with the summer heat. This was supposed to be the year of the green recovery, with union-scale workers pulling the wraps off wind turbines, solar panels and massive batteries, as environmentally conscious fund managers in pretentious plastic hats looked on in satisfaction.
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But sadly, much of the increase in the diesel business has been created by the declining reliability of US electricity grids, particularly in storm-wracked coastal areas, inland tornado alleys and, recently, renewable energy-intensive California and Texas.
Both states have moved quickly to install tax-advantaged wind and solar, but slowly to ensure the flexibility and resilience required to support intermittent renewables. Texans seemed to think their fossil-fired power would make up for any fluctuations in wind power, but were caught short in February when the natural gas pipelines and generators froze up.
Californians have taken for granted that their own hydro supplies, as well as those from their northern neighbours, could offset the huge swings in the state’s solar and wind output. Unfortunately, drought conditions have spread across the entire west, and water power, even carefully rationed, may not be able to prevent severe blackouts this summer.
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Europe and Britain, so far, have been spared a forced dash for diesel. The assumption has been that the continent’s tight interconnections will allow its grids to offset wind and solar generation variability with dispatchable imported power from . . . somewhere.
But nuclear and coal retirements in Germany over the next couple of years will turn it into a consistent power importer. Britain is also retiring nuclear stations ahead of schedule. France is partly denuclearising.
Without grid stability and resilience, the green transformation will disappear in a cloud of diesel smoke.