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The Soviet Union.. Holy Shit

And we mustn't underestimate the value of failed experiments. That's how we grow and learn to not make the same mistakes again. Before the USSR there was no way of knowing for sure that it wouldn't work. Now we know.


That is correct. Believe it or not my hometown of Corsicana, TX had one or two Socialist mayors between the 1890's and 1920's. We are talking backwater country hick Corsicana. In my opinion back then there was not as great a gulf between the skilled people and unskilled people, with a lot of people skilled actually still being pretty much self taught. I can see where Marx et al thought the workers could one day take over and actually run things.

Marx held the common "end of history" belief. Ie that soon every scientific discovery that could be made would be made. And that technological innovation would run out of new things to invent. That's actually a pretty central and critical part of Marx's theory. In a world like that where technology is pretty static then the worker is the one who will add most of the value to the system. Capitalists in such a world would truly be just parasites.
 
That is correct. Believe it or not my hometown of Corsicana, TX had one or two Socialist mayors between the 1890's and 1920's. We are talking backwater country hick Corsicana. In my opinion back then there was not as great a gulf between the skilled people and unskilled people, with a lot of people skilled actually still being pretty much self taught. I can see where Marx et al thought the workers could one day take over and actually run things.

Marx held the common "end of history" belief. Ie that soon every scientific discovery that could be made would be made. And that technological innovation would run out of new things to invent. That's actually a pretty central and critical part of Marx's theory. In a world like that where technology is pretty static then the worker is the one who will add most of the value to the system. Capitalists in such a world would truly be just parasites.

Depending on your outlook, Marx was either ahead of his time in regards to singularity thought or didn't give humanity enough credit for it's creativity and ingenuity.
 
Marx held the common "end of history" belief. Ie that soon every scientific discovery that could be made would be made. And that technological innovation would run out of new things to invent. That's actually a pretty central and critical part of Marx's theory. In a world like that where technology is pretty static then the worker is the one who will add most of the value to the system. Capitalists in such a world would truly be just parasites.

Depending on your outlook, Marx was either ahead of his time in regards to singularity thought or didn't give humanity enough credit for it's creativity and ingenuity.

Neither. It has to do with what is discoverable. They thought that soon humanity will know everything there is to know about nature. It was a very common belief to hold back then.
 
Also keep in mind another thing. It still happens today under the radar but back in those times the power of patronage was a lot stronger than it is today concerning politicians and their friends and family. You have a politican high up in Washington or another capital city? Well, write you relative or stop buy one day and see if "in the name of the public good" he and his other backscratching cronies would just hand you over money to go start a factory. You can own it and you don't even have to run it. You can hire an expert manager to do all that work for you and you just go party and live off all of the profits. When things like this were going on it was easy to understand why some poor workers working all day for a pittance would feel exploited. The owners in I would say many cases honestly were not doing and never did any work to get that factory you are now toiling for them in.

It still goes on today, but folks who do it go to greater and better lengths to hide it.
 
Central planning will always be a disaster. Like weather forecasting, it is not just a matter of not having enough number-crunching ability; it's fundamentally impossible to have sufficient information on the current situation to be able to correctly predict the future requirements.

The only way to make things work is to have every single transaction monitored automatically by some kind of symbolic token of value that passes back through the system in real time. Ration tickets work moderately well to fill this role; but they are more effective if they apply universally - at which point we call them "money".
 
That is correct. Believe it or not my hometown of Corsicana, TX had one or two Socialist mayors between the 1890's and 1920's. We are talking backwater country hick Corsicana. In my opinion back then there was not as great a gulf between the skilled people and unskilled people, with a lot of people skilled actually still being pretty much self taught. I can see where Marx et al thought the workers could one day take over and actually run things.

Marx held the common "end of history" belief. Ie that soon every scientific discovery that could be made would be made. And that technological innovation would run out of new things to invent. That's actually a pretty central and critical part of Marx's theory. In a world like that where technology is pretty static then the worker is the one who will add most of the value to the system. Capitalists in such a world would truly be just parasites.


Dr. Zoidberg,

If you do not mind and have time could you tell me where you get this inference from your readings of Marx. From what I have read of his and his earliest accomplisses they expected the coming socialism or communism to release a great deal of creative energy leading to new technologies and developments. I could very well be mistaken or perhaps they changed their minds at some points and came to the beliefs you cite them as holding.
 
Marx held the common "end of history" belief. Ie that soon every scientific discovery that could be made would be made. And that technological innovation would run out of new things to invent. That's actually a pretty central and critical part of Marx's theory. In a world like that where technology is pretty static then the worker is the one who will add most of the value to the system. Capitalists in such a world would truly be just parasites.


Dr. Zoidberg,

If you do not mind and have time could you tell me where you get this inference from your readings of Marx. From what I have read of his and his earliest accomplisses they expected the coming socialism or communism to release a great deal of creative energy leading to new technologies and developments. I could very well be mistaken or perhaps they changed their minds at some points and came to the beliefs you cite them as holding.

Here's the bit of the end of history.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/End_of_history

I think you're confusing Soviet re-interpretations of Marx. USSR did a lot of that. USSR treated Karl Marx like the Nazis treated Nietzsche. Marx was their chief ideologue. But whenever their chief ideologue didn't quite support whatever whims the powers to be happen to have, Marx was lovingly re-interpreted, and a poor Marx scholar was tasked in making this revision and publish a book on it.

It's hard to find singular sources. I'm just very interested in Karl Marx. I had a short stint as a communist in my teens (mostly to annoy my parents). Since then I've read everything I can get my hands on. Here's a good source on Marx. It's got both the stuff he wrote, and the stuff the USSR wished he wrote.

https://www.marxists.org/

I recently listened to a lecture on Marx by the LSE. This one's just a few months old. In this they discuss Soviet history revionism, and the problems it causes for sholars who actually care what the man himself thought.
http://www.lse.ac.uk/website-archive/publicEvents/events/2016/11/20161110t1830vOT.aspx

It's easy to forget how early Marx was. He was brilliant, and got lots of things right. But he also got lots of things wrong. Understanding Marx isn't helped by his fanboys who deny the fuck-ups.
 
How do you mean? How isn't that an endless regress?

It's just a statement of fact. There's not any real reason communism can't work any better or worse than any other social/economic system, it's just a matter of how you implement it. Common themes in the failure of any system usually comes down to a lack of accountability for those in control or recourse for those bereaved.

It's been demonstrated over and over real communism doesn't work. First off, you conveniently glossed over the "implementation" period! How it gets implemented may be communism biggest failure. Communism can only be implemented by a vicious group of committed thugs who band together to take everyone's stuff. Then they have to throw all the leaders, teachers, artists, scientists, businesses people and etc. who won't tow the line into the gulag. Unfortunately for humanity, communists have gone to this stage over and over. But the required next stage: giving up power to the collective is where it always fails. The thugs are just never willing to give up the power. I call this stage 2 failure.

Then, let's assume that the thugs give up power to the collective. How does the collective stop the capitalists from starting again. It's human nature for people to want to start their businesses or try to maximize their holdings. How do they stop that? Who prevents people from escaping the gulags? Answer: you have to bring thugs back.
 
The problem is that most new governments are established with violence. You can't say, "oh, they just didn't do it right," when they couldn't have done it any other way when they are trying to piece together a government in the middle of a civil war. Forget communism, it doesn't work, and its value is only educational.

But that doesn't mean we don't have the ability to implement a new system which takes advantage of our newfound ability to process data as never before. We are close to abolishing physical currency and replacing it with electronic currency anyway. Why not just make it official? And once that happens, why not use the data from the transactions for economic planning? You say we can't have sufficient information? Really? When every transaction of every product is logged, as it ALMOST is now? If Netflix can predict what I would like to watch based on how much I like what I already have watched, why couldn't a computer predict my needs based my past purchases?

I'm just saying that our situation has fundamentally changed, and its possible that the lessons we have learned from history may not necessarily still apply. It bothers me to no end that people don't seem to be very interested in using technology to improve government. We use it for everything else.
 
I'm no expert on the USSR, but based on what I've read so far it seems like the government made many assumptions about the class system in the area that simply weren't true to reality. More specifically, what they thought were the 'proletariat' didn't really support revolution in the sense that they envisioned, which is pretty much the bench-mark for Marxism.

It's not that 'Marxism' in the sense of it's ideals can't work, it's that 'Marxism' is an out-dated, inaccurate, and primitive ideology in the realm of socialism. It's more like a rough draft that needs to be improved upon, then any indicator of how the world actually works. Which is no surprise given it's time of publication.
 
The proletariat and the peasants did believe in 'the Revolution.' Its just that they didn't believe in the Bolshevik's vision for the post revolution Russia. They all agreed they didn't want the Tsar and the nobles back.

'Socialism' and 'Marxism' were more or less universally accepted by the urban working class and the soldiers. This was not necessarily the Bolshevik's version.

The Peasantry cared more about village autonomy. Traditionally, Russian villagers shared the land and various assets communally, long before there was such a thing as 'socialism.' What they didn't like was paying taxes and such to 'outsiders.' The insane problem is that no one could synthesize a version of socialism everyone could agree on, despite nearly everyone being in favor of something that resembled socialism! So the Bolsheviks came up with a system that was stronger than the opposition, and imposed it by force.
 
The proletariat and the peasants did believe in 'the Revolution.' Its just that they didn't believe in the Bolshevik's vision for the post revolution Russia. They all agreed they didn't want the Tsar and the nobles back.

'Socialism' and 'Marxism' were more or less universally accepted by the urban working class and the soldiers. This was not necessarily the Bolshevik's version.

The Peasantry cared more about village autonomy. Traditionally, Russian villagers shared the land and various assets communally, long before there was such a thing as 'socialism.' What they didn't like was paying taxes and such to 'outsiders.' The insane problem is that no one could synthesize a version of socialism everyone could agree on, despite nearly everyone being in favor of something that resembled socialism! So the Bolsheviks came up with a system that was stronger than the opposition, and imposed it by force.

Sounds about right. Basically, what I can glean is that they cared about their way of life, which wasn't being supported pre-Soviet era. Then they had ideology imposed on them which they didn't support, and which didn't work to support their way of life in practice. The Bolsheviks just assumed that all of the poorer classes across the country would be on board, which wasn't actually the case.

In theory the Bolsheviks were supporting the way of life of the poor, but in practice they weren't, and in practice all that mattered to the people of the country was prosperity, not some vague socialist revolution.

In other words, the 'classes' as specified by Marx didn't actually exist in practice.
 
I'm no expert on the USSR, but based on what I've read so far it seems like the government made many assumptions about the class system in the area that simply weren't true to reality. More specifically, what they thought were the 'proletariat' didn't really support revolution in the sense that they envisioned, which is pretty much the bench-mark for Marxism.

It's not that 'Marxism' in the sense of it's ideals can't work, it's that 'Marxism' is an out-dated, inaccurate, and primitive ideology in the realm of socialism. It's more like a rough draft that needs to be improved upon, then any indicator of how the world actually works. Which is no surprise given it's time of publication.
You need to separate early history of USSR and later one. All these crazy experiments happened early in the 1920s. in the 50s-60s USSR was doing pretty much the same as West. But by 1970s-1980s they knew it was no longer working but were not sure how to fix it.
 
It is sobering to realize that feudalism was only abolished in parts of Russia as late as 1868. And then many became tenant farmers not much better off than serfs. Russia suffered numerous revolts and resurrections because of this. The promise of socialism was a good deal in many eyes. Russia up to the late 1800's was a bizarre place compared to say, England France or America.
 
I'm no expert on the USSR, but based on what I've read so far it seems like the government made many assumptions about the class system in the area that simply weren't true to reality. More specifically, what they thought were the 'proletariat' didn't really support revolution in the sense that they envisioned, which is pretty much the bench-mark for Marxism.

It's not that 'Marxism' in the sense of it's ideals can't work, it's that 'Marxism' is an out-dated, inaccurate, and primitive ideology in the realm of socialism. It's more like a rough draft that needs to be improved upon, then any indicator of how the world actually works. Which is no surprise given it's time of publication.
You need to separate early history of USSR and later one. All these crazy experiments happened early in the 1920s. in the 50s-60s USSR was doing pretty much the same as West. But by 1970s-1980s they knew it was no longer working but were not sure how to fix it.

True, I'm only referring to the USSR's history in the twenties and prior, haven't had the pleasure of stomaching all of the Stalin years yet.
 
I'm no expert on the USSR, but based on what I've read so far it seems like the government made many assumptions about the class system in the area that simply weren't true to reality. More specifically, what they thought were the 'proletariat' didn't really support revolution in the sense that they envisioned, which is pretty much the bench-mark for Marxism.

It's not that 'Marxism' in the sense of it's ideals can't work, it's that 'Marxism' is an out-dated, inaccurate, and primitive ideology in the realm of socialism. It's more like a rough draft that needs to be improved upon, then any indicator of how the world actually works. Which is no surprise given it's time of publication.
You need to separate early history of USSR and later one. All these crazy experiments happened early in the 1920s. in the 50s-60s USSR was doing pretty much the same as West. But by 1970s-1980s they knew it was no longer working but were not sure how to fix it.

Similar craziness isn't unique to Russia. Ie a particular maverick scientist gets the ear of a political leader and causes much havoc. I'm thinking about Thabo Mbeki who listened to erroneous theories about AIDS. And the world isn't getting less crazy. I mean, the big one, Trump and climate denial. It's the same shit as Lamarckians planting seeds in the Russian tundra. All indications is that this shit will not only continue but get increasingly pronounced.
 
It's just a statement of fact. There's not any real reason communism can't work any better or worse than any other social/economic system, it's just a matter of how you implement it. Common themes in the failure of any system usually comes down to a lack of accountability for those in control or recourse for those bereaved.

It's been demonstrated over and over real communism doesn't work. First off, you conveniently glossed over the "implementation" period! How it gets implemented may be communism biggest failure. Communism can only be implemented by a vicious group of committed thugs who band together to take everyone's stuff. Then they have to throw all the leaders, teachers, artists, scientists, businesses people and etc. who won't tow the line into the gulag. Unfortunately for humanity, communists have gone to this stage over and over. But the required next stage: giving up power to the collective is where it always fails. The thugs are just never willing to give up the power. I call this stage 2 failure.

Then, let's assume that the thugs give up power to the collective. How does the collective stop the capitalists from starting again. It's human nature for people to want to start their businesses or try to maximize their holdings. How do they stop that? Who prevents people from escaping the gulags? Answer: you have to bring thugs back.

I mean, when you get to the point of technological singularity where human labor is all but obsolete and indeed, fleshy human bodies are potentially also obsolete, communism can come as a direct result of those two things. I've thought about this a lot, but you see greater degrees of pluralism become more feasible for a larger population over the course of human history as our communication and administrative technologies become more advanced and sophisticated. To this end, I posit that communism fails to implement correctly due to limitations in how people can organize themselves. The day leaders actually become unnecessary for whole societies to administrate themselves is the day communism becomes feasible.
 
The problem is that most new governments are established with violence. You can't say, "oh, they just didn't do it right," when they couldn't have done it any other way when they are trying to piece together a government in the middle of a civil war. Forget communism, it doesn't work, and its value is only educational.

But that doesn't mean we don't have the ability to implement a new system which takes advantage of our newfound ability to process data as never before. We are close to abolishing physical currency and replacing it with electronic currency anyway. Why not just make it official? And once that happens, why not use the data from the transactions for economic planning? You say we can't have sufficient information? Really? When every transaction of every product is logged, as it ALMOST is now? If Netflix can predict what I would like to watch based on how much I like what I already have watched, why couldn't a computer predict my needs based my past purchases?

I'm just saying that our situation has fundamentally changed, and its possible that the lessons we have learned from history may not necessarily still apply. It bothers me to no end that people don't seem to be very interested in using technology to improve government. We use it for everything else.

We have supercomputers and vast real-time data collected by satellites and ground stations, and we still can't predict the weather to an arbitrary degree of accuracy over short timescales. The reason for this is that complex dynamic systems, like weather and economics, are chaotic - model outputs can diverge wildly from each other in very small numbers of cycles due to incredibly small variations in input.

Modelling based on a perfect and accurate record of all transactions cannot work for a useful amount of time before they break down due to unpredictable elements of the environment - indeed the weather is one such element. You can't use this week's umbrella sales as an indicator of sales for the same week next year; sales depend on non-economic factors.

It's known to be impossible to predict the weather more than about four days in advance with reasonable accuracy (and even that relies on a very woolly definition of 'reasonable'); it's impossible to predict the economy without an accurate weather forecast, and an accurate political forecast, and accurate forecasts of a whole bunch of other factors, any one of which, if slightly wrong, could lead your model to be total garbage.

Central planning of an economy is mathematically impossible. It doesn't matter how powerful your computer is; the only way to get accurate results is to look at the actual economy; and not only can you not see the future with that methodology; you are being over ambitious if you are trying to see the present. That's why governments produce quarterly statistics only many weeks or months after the end of the quarter to which they relate.

With totalitarian and universal data collection and hugely powerful computers, it might be possible to get a grip on what happened yesterday. It will never be possible to accurately and reliably predict what will happen tomorrow.
 
The problem is that most new governments are established with violence. You can't say, "oh, they just didn't do it right," when they couldn't have done it any other way when they are trying to piece together a government in the middle of a civil war. Forget communism, it doesn't work, and its value is only educational.

But that doesn't mean we don't have the ability to implement a new system which takes advantage of our newfound ability to process data as never before. We are close to abolishing physical currency and replacing it with electronic currency anyway. Why not just make it official? And once that happens, why not use the data from the transactions for economic planning? You say we can't have sufficient information? Really? When every transaction of every product is logged, as it ALMOST is now? If Netflix can predict what I would like to watch based on how much I like what I already have watched, why couldn't a computer predict my needs based my past purchases?

I'm just saying that our situation has fundamentally changed, and its possible that the lessons we have learned from history may not necessarily still apply. It bothers me to no end that people don't seem to be very interested in using technology to improve government. We use it for everything else.

We have supercomputers and vast real-time data collected by satellites and ground stations, and we still can't predict the weather to an arbitrary degree of accuracy over short timescales. The reason for this is that complex dynamic systems, like weather and economics, are chaotic - model outputs can diverge wildly from each other in very small numbers of cycles due to incredibly small variations in input.

Modelling based on a perfect and accurate record of all transactions cannot work for a useful amount of time before they break down due to unpredictable elements of the environment - indeed the weather is one such element. You can't use this week's umbrella sales as an indicator of sales for the same week next year; sales depend on non-economic factors.

It's known to be impossible to predict the weather more than about four days in advance with reasonable accuracy (and even that relies on a very woolly definition of 'reasonable'); it's impossible to predict the economy without an accurate weather forecast, and an accurate political forecast, and accurate forecasts of a whole bunch of other factors, any one of which, if slightly wrong, could lead your model to be total garbage.

Central planning of an economy is mathematically impossible. It doesn't matter how powerful your computer is; the only way to get accurate results is to look at the actual economy; and not only can you not see the future with that methodology; you are being over ambitious if you are trying to see the present. That's why governments produce quarterly statistics only many weeks or months after the end of the quarter to which they relate.

With totalitarian and universal data collection and hugely powerful computers, it might be possible to get a grip on what happened yesterday. It will never be possible to accurately and reliably predict what will happen tomorrow.

Aren't all economic systems technically reactionary?
 
The problem is that most new governments are established with violence. You can't say, "oh, they just didn't do it right," when they couldn't have done it any other way when they are trying to piece together a government in the middle of a civil war. Forget communism, it doesn't work, and its value is only educational.

But that doesn't mean we don't have the ability to implement a new system which takes advantage of our newfound ability to process data as never before. We are close to abolishing physical currency and replacing it with electronic currency anyway. Why not just make it official? And once that happens, why not use the data from the transactions for economic planning? You say we can't have sufficient information? Really? When every transaction of every product is logged, as it ALMOST is now? If Netflix can predict what I would like to watch based on how much I like what I already have watched, why couldn't a computer predict my needs based my past purchases?

I'm just saying that our situation has fundamentally changed, and its possible that the lessons we have learned from history may not necessarily still apply. It bothers me to no end that people don't seem to be very interested in using technology to improve government. We use it for everything else.

We have supercomputers and vast real-time data collected by satellites and ground stations, and we still can't predict the weather to an arbitrary degree of accuracy over short timescales. The reason for this is that complex dynamic systems, like weather and economics, are chaotic - model outputs can diverge wildly from each other in very small numbers of cycles due to incredibly small variations in input.

Modelling based on a perfect and accurate record of all transactions cannot work for a useful amount of time before they break down due to unpredictable elements of the environment - indeed the weather is one such element. You can't use this week's umbrella sales as an indicator of sales for the same week next year; sales depend on non-economic factors.

It's known to be impossible to predict the weather more than about four days in advance with reasonable accuracy (and even that relies on a very woolly definition of 'reasonable'); it's impossible to predict the economy without an accurate weather forecast, and an accurate political forecast, and accurate forecasts of a whole bunch of other factors, any one of which, if slightly wrong, could lead your model to be total garbage.

Central planning of an economy is mathematically impossible. It doesn't matter how powerful your computer is; the only way to get accurate results is to look at the actual economy; and not only can you not see the future with that methodology; you are being over ambitious if you are trying to see the present. That's why governments produce quarterly statistics only many weeks or months after the end of the quarter to which they relate.

With totalitarian and universal data collection and hugely powerful computers, it might be possible to get a grip on what happened yesterday. It will never be possible to accurately and reliably predict what will happen tomorrow.

This is a good post.

As an aside, while some might find this depressing, I think of it as a relief. Things like the polarization of the U.S. and the rise of people like Trump can be attributed to the random evolution of the world, rather than some type of rationalized design that went wrong. In this sense you just kinda gotta.. accept things as they are.
 
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