Today is the First Day I am Freaking Out

[Derec]

CNN showed a video from SF, does not look like people are taking it seriously, certainly different from Italy and China.

Didn't they order "shelter in place" in SF? That said, this is the city that has tolerated the homeless literally shitting all over the sidewalks, so ...

We don't know, we know their system is overloaded and it could mean changes in priorities. I mean why bother with testing when you can't really do anything for a person who tested positive? Test result change nothing, you still have to stay at home like everyone else. Severe cases maybe you can get to ICU but they don't have enough of them it seems.

I guess that is possible. Time will tell.

Criminally dumb.

Yes it is. It should have been scrapped as soon as other events were scrapped.
Although my hope is still that heat and sunshine reduced the transmission risk. The bad part is that spring breakers come from all over the place - so plenty of paths for the virus to migrate.

 

[barbos]

Exactly. Ordinary flu is consistent and fairly predictable, people have partial natural and unnatural immunity against it, people who die from it are the ones who are already dying anyway. How many people here have ever had flu? I can say I have never had a flu, don't know anyone who had. Most people had common cold, not flu.

Unless you go to the doctor you will not be diagnosed with flu even if you have it.

I mean most people confuse common cold with flu.

COVID, on the other hand, there is no immunity, much much more transmissible, add to that that large percentage of population may have no symptoms you have a situation where 100% of people get infected, 1% die, and 2-5% survive but would be as good as dead due to complications

There are probably some people with natural immunity to it though. 100% of people getting infected in very unlikely.

100% and 70% does not really make much difference. There could be some mutants which are less likely or even immune to infection. There is a different infection rates for different blood types it seems for example.

Look at South Korea. Their curve is flattening at just over 8k cases, which corresponds to 50k scaled to US population. We are at 1/10 of that, so there is still a chance we follow their model. China is flattening at 19k US equivalent cases, although they may be under-reporting. Italy right now is at 170k US equivalent cases, so it easily can get much worse, but even Italy is showing some tentative signs of inflection.

Here is a deal, If it were possible to shut down the whole planet for 2-3 weeks at the first indication that the virus is serious we would not have had what we have now. I mean everyone who is not essential (which is 90%) gets paid vacation, except you can't go anywhere except walking distance of your house.

 

[Derec]

I mean most people confuse common cold with flu.

They do, but a bad cold is not that much different than a mild flu. Although that time I did have muscle aches too, which is more indicative of flu.

100% and 70% does not really make much difference. There could be some mutants which are less likely or even immune to infection. There is a different infection rates for different blood types it seems for example.

Yes, I read about it. Very interesting. Maybe it is not directly the blood type but the gene coding for blood type also codes for some membrane proteins in the cells of the respiratory epithelium. Different versions of these proteins would offer the virus better or worse site for attachment and injection of RNA.

Here is a deal, If it were possible to shut down the whole planet for 2-3 weeks at the first indication that the virus is serious we would not have had what we have now. I mean everyone who is not essential (which is 90%) gets paid vacation, except you can't go anywhere except walking distance of your house.

And the sooner it is implemented the better the chances of success.

 

[barbos]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...e-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-china-study-finds
They say type A is more susceptible to the virus than type O, but then write:

In Wuhan, which has a population of about 11 million, type O is 32 per cent, while A is 34 per cent among healthy people. Among Covid-19 patients, it was about 38 and 25 per cent.

Which clearly means that type A is less succeptable than type O.

I have type A (AO, to be more precise )

 

[Elixir]

Would it be flippant and insensitive of me to expect jesus to soon appear in the sky?
Honestly, this reminds me of many of my friends circa Y2K. Has China or any country descended into armageddon?

Yes, the US has.
Armageddon really sick of the Washington DC kleptocracy.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

For right now, I am more concerned about seasonal flu... which isn't much. Over a million in my state have been infected with flu causing 52 flu deaths this season. Corona19 has 121 infected and no deaths. For now, I am much more likely to run into someone infected with the flu than someone infected with Corona19.

Got it, you can only worry about right now, you can't worry about one minute from now, let alone 1 week from now, or even 1 month.

Someone should be more immediately concerned about the tiger that is currently attacking them than the crocodile they may have to fight off if they go fishing tomorrow. Right now flu is a bigger danger. But as far as precautions taken, the precautions taken to avoid flu are the same as those taken to avoid corono19. What is more an immediate concern is a different matter than the precautions.

What amazes me is that no one is showing any concern for the flu that infects 3 to 5 million and kills up to half a million. There have already this year been twice as many seasonal flu deaths just in the U.S. than the global deaths from Corona 19.

People have just become comfortable with flu because they have lived through several seasons so tend to just accept (or have come to ignore) how dangerous it is. Corona 19 in the new guy on the block so is scary plus the media is pumping the fear.

"What, 16,000 deaths in the U.S. already this year??? My god, we gotta do something... Oh, never mind it was just the flu."

Flu rarely kills those that weren't already in a bad way. Covid-19 kills plenty of people who were in less than perfect health but nowhere near in a bad way. Now flu is killing more than Covid-19, but that will soon change. If His Flatulence had continued to sit on his ass we could easily have lost a million or more to it and we might even now.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...e-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-china-study-finds
They say type A is more susceptible to the virus than type O, but then write:

In Wuhan, which has a population of about 11 million, type O is 32 per cent, while A is 34 per cent among healthy people. Among Covid-19 patients, it was about 38 and 25 per cent.

Which clearly means that type A is less succeptable than type O.

I have type A (AO, to be more precise )

Check your math. They're right, you're wrong.

 

[Axulus]

For right now, I am more concerned about seasonal flu... which isn't much. Over a million in my state have been infected with flu causing 52 flu deaths this season. Corona19 has 121 infected and no deaths. For now, I am much more likely to run into someone infected with the flu than someone infected with Corona19.

Got it, you can only worry about right now, you can't worry about one minute from now, let alone 1 week from now, or even 1 month.

Someone should be more immediately concerned about the tiger that is currently attacking them than the crocodile they may have to fight off if they go fishing tomorrow. Right now flu is a bigger danger. But as far as precautions taken, the precautions taken to avoid flu are the same as those taken to avoid corono19. What is more an immediate concern is a different matter than the precautions.

What amazes me is that no one is showing any concern for the flu that infects 3 to 5 million and kills up to half a million. There have already this year been twice as many seasonal flu deaths just in the U.S. than the global deaths from Corona 19.

People have just become comfortable with flu because they have lived through several seasons so tend to just accept (or have come to ignore) how dangerous it is. Corona 19 in the new guy on the block so is scary plus the media is pumping the fear.

"What, 16,000 deaths in the U.S. already this year??? My god, we gotta do something... Oh, never mind it was just the flu."

It's also a similar attitude with malaria in poorer tropical climate regions. It is so prevalent and has been around for so long that people treat it the way we treat the flu. It's why it is hard to get people to install mosquito nets on their beds and take other precautions, despite handing out the nets for free.

 

[repoman]

Does the flu leave the moderate to severely affected survivors with hosed up lungs for the rest of their lives?

What contagion is the best analogy for this other than the flu?

 

[barbos]

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/reg...e-vulnerable-to-coronavirus-china-study-finds
They say type A is more susceptible to the virus than type O, but then write:

In Wuhan, which has a population of about 11 million, type O is 32 per cent, while A is 34 per cent among healthy people. Among Covid-19 patients, it was about 38 and 25 per cent.

Which clearly means that type A is less succeptable than type O.

I have type A (AO, to be more precise )

Check your math. They're right, you're wrong.

I checked, now your turn.

 

[barbos]

Does the flu leave the moderate to severely affected survivors with hosed up lungs for the rest of their lives?

What contagion is the best analogy for this other than the flu?

So far the answer is yes. Other viruses (2003, 2009) are similar, severe cases had you crippled.

 

[repoman]

Does the flu leave the moderate to severely affected survivors with hosed up lungs for the rest of their lives?

What contagion is the best analogy for this other than the flu?

So far the answer is yes. Other viruses (2003, 2009) are similar, severe cases had you crippled.

If I was knocked on my ass for 3 weeks wishing I was dead but had a full recovery that would not bother me. But losing 30% lung function... Oh damn.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

For right now, I am more concerned about seasonal flu... which isn't much. Over a million in my state have been infected with flu causing 52 flu deaths this season. Corona19 has 121 infected and no deaths. For now, I am much more likely to run into someone infected with the flu than someone infected with Corona19.

Got it, you can only worry about right now, you can't worry about one minute from now, let alone 1 week from now, or even 1 month.

Someone should be more immediately concerned about the tiger that is currently attacking them than the crocodile they may have to fight off if they go fishing tomorrow. Right now flu is a bigger danger. But as far as precautions taken, the precautions taken to avoid flu are the same as those taken to avoid corono19. What is more an immediate concern is a different matter than the precautions.

What amazes me is that no one is showing any concern for the flu that infects 3 to 5 million and kills up to half a million. There have already this year been twice as many seasonal flu deaths just in the U.S. than the global deaths from Corona 19.

People have just become comfortable with flu because they have lived through several seasons so tend to just accept (or have come to ignore) how dangerous it is. Corona 19 in the new guy on the block so is scary plus the media is pumping the fear.

"What, 16,000 deaths in the U.S. already this year??? My god, we gotta do something... Oh, never mind it was just the flu."

People are ignorant about the flu. That doesn't mean we should remain ignorant about Covid-19 as well. Covid-19 presents unique issues that will tax our health care system, which is already designed to handle issues with the flu. And known cases continue to increase at a very fast rate, diagnoses up 40% in a day and we lack the ability to test anywhere near enough people because... mainly Trump Admin circumcised foresight.

We shouldn't wait for it to be too late, before taking notable action. FYI, we could already be too late. Billions aren't dying, but tens of thousands dying needlessly because of stupid reactions seems out-rightly ridiculous in the 21st century.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's also a similar attitude with malaria in poorer tropical climate regions. It is so prevalent and has been around for so long that people treat it the way we treat the flu. It's why it is hard to get people to install mosquito nets on their beds and take other precautions, despite handing out the nets for free.

I've seen it with 20-something travelers. Most of our group was awfully casual about their malaria drugs. I ended up infected because I couldn't take the drug I should have been taking, my mother apparently didn't take them long enough after we got home, my father didn't get, one older German guy also didn't, I think everyone else got it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Check your math. They're right, you're wrong.

I checked, now your turn.

38/34 = 11% more likely than normal for A.
25/32 = 22% less likely for O.

 

[barbos]

Check your math. They're right, you're wrong.

I checked, now your turn.

38/3432 = 12% more likely than normal for A O.
25/3234 = 26% less likely for O A.

Fixed for you.

In Wuhan, which has a population of about 11 million, type O is 32 per cent, while A is 34 per cent among healthy people. Among Covid-19 patients, it was about 38 and 25 per cent.

Anyway, it's a typo because other sites use correct numbers and type A is in fact more susceptible to virus.

 

[lpetrich]

No real change here although I do know a few people that have been scared shitless by the over-the-top news coverage. A check of the state's department of health website shows that there are 121 known infections in the state with a population of over 10 million, the closest is over 200 miles from here. There is five cases in a county of a neighboring state a little over a hundred miles away. A bit of caution may be warranted because of what it may become but I see no reason for panic.

That's like saying "The boat's not leaking on my end".

Exponential rising is common in epidemic diseases, and COVID-19 is no exception. 121 to 10 million means 16 doublings, and at 3 days per doubling, that's 2 months. So there is VERY reason to be concerned.

 

[Playball40]

Haven't you heard? Easter is CANCELLED. Even Jesus said no flippin' way.

Would it be flippant and insensitive of me to expect jesus to soon appear in the sky?

Honestly, this reminds me of many of my friends circa Y2K. Has China or any country descended into armageddon?

 

[Elixir]

Got it, you can only worry about right now, you can't worry about one minute from now, let alone 1 week from now, or even 1 month.

Since you have a long view and are purportedly in Russia, maybe you can say why there are so few cases in Russia?
Is there a lack of screening and/or bad reporting that accounts for it, or do you believe the reported numbers are accurate?
Is there any "social distancing" or closure of public places suppressing the spread? Were precautions instituted earlier than in the US?
Genuinely curious...
The Country is so big, maybe everyone just spread out so there are only 20 people per square mile?

Also, in case you are interested: "Meta-analyses on the pooled data showed that blood group A had a significantly higher risk for COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups,"

 

[barbos]

Got it, you can only worry about right now, you can't worry about one minute from now, let alone 1 week from now, or even 1 month.

Since you have a long view and are purportedly in Russia, maybe you can say why there are so few cases in Russia?
Is there a lack of screening and/or bad reporting that accounts for it, or do you believe the reported numbers are accurate?
Is there any "social distancing" or closure of public places suppressing the spread? Were precautions instituted earlier than in the US?
Genuinely curious...
The Country is so big, maybe everyone just spread out so there are only 20 people per square mile?

Most cases are in Moscow, which is really a separate small country of 15 millions, and virtually all cases are people who returned from Europe. I don't see any distancing here, but "here" is far far away from Moscow or any large city.

Also, in case you are interested: "Meta-analyses on the pooled data showed that blood group A had a significantly higher risk for COVID-19 compared with non-A blood groups,"

I was the one who brought it up. It's unfortunate that I have type A blood.