Merle
Member
- Joined
- Nov 29, 2022
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- Agnostic Humanist
In fact it shows quite clearly that the UN predicts the world's population will reach a maximum of about 10.4 billion before going into decline:
We have been over this several times on this thread. Yes, people have predicted that population will level off. But that is only a guess. Nobody knows. That all depends on what happens in bedrooms and courtrooms (and in the back seats of cars) in the coming years. Nobody knows for sure what will happen. The recent Supreme Court decision, for instance, might tend to adjust that figure upwards.
If we are in overshoot, as many suggest, then leveling off at 10.4 billion might not be adequate. See https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2022/12/finite-feeding-frenzy/ .
I will probably eventually write a post on population for my blog. My post 411 here (https://iidb.org/threads/too-many-people.27312/page-21#post-1102262) is the gist of that post. I will probably change the paragraph in question to state, "If the current birthrate (134M per year) and typical lifespans continue, population will level off at 9.6 billion." I am concerned that even that figure is too high.