Trump Losing Support In Swing States

[Cheerful Charlie]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...ort-for-trump-re-election-in-key-swing-states

Only about a third of voters in Arizona, Florida and Ohio say President Trump deserves to be reelected, according to an NBC News and Marist College poll published Wednesday.
In Arizona, a state Trump won by 4 points in 2016, 35 percent of those surveyed said the president should be reelected, while 57 percent disagreed.
The poll also found that only 41 percent approved of the job the president is doing, while 47 percent disapproved.
In Florida, another notable battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2016, 37 percent of respondents said the president should be reelected, while 54 percent said another person should be given a chance in the Oval Office.

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Snort! Guffaw! 2020 may not be kind to Cheetolini. Sometimes in this world, there is a glimmer of good news.

 

[Tinker Grey]

Well, it's simple. He'll just declare the elections invalid.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It doesn't matter now. The show is over.

 

[ZiprHead]

Well, it's simple. He'll just declare the elections invalid.

I doubt it.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Well, it's simple. He'll just declare the elections invalid.

I doubt it.

Why would they need to? Despite Iraq becoming increasingly unpopular due to the "Mission Accomplished" not being so accomplished, W won in 2004.

The uncertainty at this point is back to '08, but with all things, not merely the economy. The special elections have shown massive Democrat swings, but the special elections are special elections. If turnout isn't high enough, the Republicans remain in power everywhere. The Democrats taking the Senate would be a huge order. If they managed it, that'd indicate Trump could actually be a one-term'er. But who knows. The right-wing is so invested in this naked emperor (heck, some seem to just like Trump because liberals (read normal people) hate him), who knows how they'd react to a Democrat wave in '18. But first, we need the wave to actually happen. It was supposed to happen in '16.

Feels a lot like Brock Lesnar in the WWE. Everyone knows he will eventually drop the belt, but every time you think this is finally it... it isn't.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Trump won a few swing states to give him the win, but not by much. It was not like he won with a massive landslide. So any loss of supporters in the swing states is not good. And if the polls I sited are even close to correct, he will have to do rather a lot to win re-election, which is beginning to look rather unlikely. He is going to ignite a culture war like we haven't seen the likes of. Trade wars. Massive deficits. Presiding over attempts to slash Social Security and Medicare. If the Democrats do not quite manage to regain the Senate of House, despite big gains, 2020 will be one of the most savage and hotly contested elections in our nation's history. Not to mention ongoing investigations.

The next 3 years will be a good time to be a professional American political historian.

 

[Elixir]

Well, it's simple. He'll just declare the elections invalid.

I doubt it.

Why would they need to? Despite Iraq becoming increasingly unpopular due to the "Mission Accomplished" not being so accomplished, W won in 2004.

The uncertainty at this point is back to '08, but with all things, not merely the economy. The special elections have shown massive Democrat swings, but the special elections are special elections. If turnout isn't high enough, the Republicans remain in power everywhere. The Democrats taking the Senate would be a huge order. If they managed it, that'd indicate Trump could actually be a one-term'er. But who knows. The right-wing is so invested in this naked emperor (heck, some seem to just like Trump because liberals (read normal people) hate him), who knows how they'd react to a Democrat wave in '18. But first, we need the wave to actually happen. It was supposed to happen in '16.

Feels a lot like Brock Lesnar in the WWE. Everyone knows he will eventually drop the belt, but every time you think this is finally it... it isn't.

It's not like every single Obama-hater, Republican, race baiter and moron went to the polls in 2016. Dem turnout was suppressed and in some cases, converted, due the Russian efforts, FBI fear of looking like they were trying to influence the election, and of course the surpassing judgment of the DNC, who chose to anoint Hillary as successor.
The right may be a little bit fired up, and they do tend to turn out in greater numbers in the midterms than do Democrats. But right now, this has quite a different "feel" to it. The emotions run high on both sides (rather than just one) while the real passion seems to belong to the left at the moment. And remember - Trump lost the popular vote, even WITH all the passion on his side. So some change is possible this fall, if not terribly likely.
Personally, I'm getting appraisals on the properties I own, and preparing (mentally atl least) for a quick exit from this country if it looks like its citizens wants to turn it into (more of) a shithole in the next few years.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

quick question...

we're talking polls here. some polls and some other ways of measuring had some flaws during the election...and this may have been more concentrated in certain states...like the rust belt or wherever. so, how reliable is the polling here...is it perhaps less reliable for Ohio than say Florida...or no issues at all?

 

[SLD]

Sounds like all the other polls just before 11/9. I’m skeptical. Extremely so. Trump will win re-election unless the economy goes off the rails, and it won’t by 2020. That will happpen in 2021. The same is true for the midterms. The democrats best hope is for a red wave in 2018, not a blue one. And in 2020 the dems will likely nominate another HRC look alike and go down in flames because they’re clueless. But that’s ok. The economy will collapse shortly after 2020 and that’s when the democratic revolution will begin to happen.

SLD

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

quick question...

we're talking polls here. some polls and some other ways of measuring had some flaws during the election...and this may have been more concentrated in certain states...like the rust belt or wherever. so, how reliable is the polling here...is it perhaps less reliable for Ohio than say Florida...or no issues at all?

In 2016, the national polls were accurate. The state polls had some issues. Also, very difficult to assess how much Comey's 'We be investigated Clinton again' and Giuliani's sourced 'Clinton Fndn to be indicted' affected the final outcome.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

...very difficult to assess how much Comey's 'We be investigated Clinton again' and Giuliani's sourced 'Clinton Fndn to be indicted' affected the final outcome.

Oh yeah. Forgot about that. That's a good point.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The upcoming battle over a supreme court nomination, plus crap like GOP efforts to slash Medicare and Social Security, And trade war disasters may very well make the 2020 elections a truly vicious, nasty, GOP disaster. Loss of presidency, Senate, House. We may very well see new Democratic leadership that will adopt GOP style scorched earth tactics. If the Democrats fail to flip House or Senate this election cycle, expect that to happen finally in 2020. Culture wars? You ain't seen nothin' yet!

 

[Underseer]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...ort-for-trump-re-election-in-key-swing-states

Only about a third of voters in Arizona, Florida and Ohio say President Trump deserves to be reelected, according to an NBC News and Marist College poll published Wednesday.
In Arizona, a state Trump won by 4 points in 2016, 35 percent of those surveyed said the president should be reelected, while 57 percent disagreed.
The poll also found that only 41 percent approved of the job the president is doing, while 47 percent disapproved.
In Florida, another notable battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2016, 37 percent of respondents said the president should be reelected, while 54 percent said another person should be given a chance in the Oval Office.

----

Snort! Guffaw! 2020 may not be kind to Cheetolini. Sometimes in this world, there is a glimmer of good news.

And in October, the FBI will announce that the Democratic candidate is being investigated for Possible Use of Mustard, while Russian trolls and 'bots stir up enough shit on Facebook to make sure the Republican party sweeps again.

 

[Elixir]

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...ort-for-trump-re-election-in-key-swing-states

Only about a third of voters in Arizona, Florida and Ohio say President Trump deserves to be reelected, according to an NBC News and Marist College poll published Wednesday.
In Arizona, a state Trump won by 4 points in 2016, 35 percent of those surveyed said the president should be reelected, while 57 percent disagreed.
The poll also found that only 41 percent approved of the job the president is doing, while 47 percent disapproved.
In Florida, another notable battleground state that Trump narrowly won in 2016, 37 percent of respondents said the president should be reelected, while 54 percent said another person should be given a chance in the Oval Office.

----

Snort! Guffaw! 2020 may not be kind to Cheetolini. Sometimes in this world, there is a glimmer of good news.

And in October, the FBI will announce that the Democratic candidate is being investigated for Possible Use of Mustard, while Russian trolls and 'bots stir up enough shit on Facebook to make sure the Republican party sweeps again.

That's obviously Trump's "plan" anyhow...