• Welcome to the new Internet Infidels Discussion Board, formerly Talk Freethought.

Two pollsters calling the race for Trump

S

SLD

Contributor
Joined
Feb 25, 2001
Messages
5,638
Location
Birmingham, Alabama
Basic Beliefs
Freethinker
This little more than betting on the long shot at a horse race. If the long shot happens to win you can claim you are brilliant. If the long shot loses then no one gives a shit. I'll stick with Nate Silver's forecast.
 
Looking at Trafaglar's latest Wisconsin poll, the one thing that sticks out to me is that his polling says Dems support Biden 67 to 25.5 and GOP supports Trump 62.4 to 28.6. Independents for Biden 52.7 to 38.3.

Firstly, the party support numbers look completely wrong. Additionally, I'm not certain how those numbers can be right, but Biden only has a 1 point lead in that poll.

Dog help us if Trump gets re-elected after the dumpster fire first term he had.
 
SLD said:
https://news.yahoo.com/another-poll...77Va_XY7oFy_MWidOZyNSS0uHc9TbqUs3CWhdl6daCTyD

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-trump-might-be-winning/

Susquehanna and Trafalgar see Trump eking out a slim victory. Probably 280 electoral votes. He’ll lose the popular again.

They see him winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose in Michigan and still win by my count.

Both of these pollsters were far closer in 2016 than others.
Click to expand...

538 rates Trafalgar as C-.

Rachel Bitecofer who correctly got 2018 right agrees with 538. Trump has a 12% chance of winning. a look at 538's national polling shows no Trafalgar polls at all going back 6 months.


https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/...blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy

Nate Silver Comments
I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.

​
 
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
SLD said:
https://news.yahoo.com/another-poll...77Va_XY7oFy_MWidOZyNSS0uHc9TbqUs3CWhdl6daCTyD

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-trump-might-be-winning/

Susquehanna and Trafalgar see Trump eking out a slim victory. Probably 280 electoral votes. He’ll lose the popular again.

They see him winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose in Michigan and still win by my count.

Both of these pollsters were far closer in 2016 than others.
Click to expand...

538 rates Trafalgar as C-.

Rachel Bitecofer who correctly got 2018 right agrees with 538. Trump has a 12% chance of winning. a look at 538's national polling shows no Trafalgar polls at all going back 6 months.


https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/...blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy

Nate Silver Comments
I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.

​
Click to expand...
Apparently Nate Silver reads my posts. :D

Cheerful Charlie said:
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
Click to expand...
Geesh, was it that long ago? Zogby was an up and comer. I think did well in '00, maybe '02... and then let their emotions take ahold of their '04 predictions. It didn't go the way he hoped it would and Zogby has been a shell of itself ever since.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
SLD said:
https://news.yahoo.com/another-poll...77Va_XY7oFy_MWidOZyNSS0uHc9TbqUs3CWhdl6daCTyD

https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/how-trump-might-be-winning/

Susquehanna and Trafalgar see Trump eking out a slim victory. Probably 280 electoral votes. He’ll lose the popular again.

They see him winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose in Michigan and still win by my count.

Both of these pollsters were far closer in 2016 than others.
Click to expand...

538 rates Trafalgar as C-.

Rachel Bitecofer who correctly got 2018 right agrees with 538. Trump has a 12% chance of winning. a look at 538's national polling shows no Trafalgar polls at all going back 6 months.


https://www.thestreet.com/mishtalk/...blasts-trafalgar-and-rasmussen-polls-as-crazy

Nate Silver Comments
I'm not a Let's Delve Into The Crosstabs guy, but some of the shit here is just crazy. Trump is not going to win 30% of the Democratic vote in Michigan. Biden is not going to win 25% of Republicans. Trump is not going to win independents by 32 points.

​
Click to expand...

Trafalgar got it right in 2016 and Nate Silver was dead wrong. I don’t trust him after that failure.
 
Trafalgar was the worst of all in 2018. Nearly 10% off. Trafalgar lucked out in 2016. They were way off until Comey helped sink Hillary.

The most Trump friendly pollsters to date have been Trafalgar, Hill/HarrisX, and Emerson. 4 Days To Go!
My bottle of champagne is in the fridge.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
Click to expand...

"If turnout is what I think it's going to be..."
Seems to leave a lot of room for shrugging it off when he's wrong.
 
Artemus said:
SLD said:
He gave HRC a 70% chance of winning. That was dead wrong.
Click to expand...

Do yourself a favor and avoid the casinos.
Click to expand...

I do. That’s my point. Nate was wrong. Whether he’s wrong again is yet to be determined. I’m just very skeptical of all the polling right now. At least Biden isn’t tanking like HRC was in the final week of polling. I say at least it will be a lot closer than they are showing.
 
SLD said:
Artemus said:
SLD said:
Trafalgar got it right in 2016 and Nate Silver was dead wrong. I don’t trust him after that failure.
Click to expand...

Nate Silver gave Trump a nearly 30% chance of winning in 2016. That's not "dead wrong."
Click to expand...

He gave HRC a 70% chance of winning. That was dead wrong.
Click to expand...
Trump won the election by a total of ~70,000 votes out of about 13,000,000 votes! I'd say that fits in the 30% realm of chances of winning.

As I noted, and Nate Silver copied me ;), the inter-party support numbers of Trafaglar's poll make absolutely no sense! 30% of Dems and GOPs aren't voting for the other party's guy.

The polls in 2016 might have told us the race was a toss up and the numbers were misinterpreted. There was a large unknown percentage in the polls still, indicating the polls might have been right all along, but the interpretation was wrong.

That doesn't exist this year. As I've stated, give Biden just they states he is 50+% and he wins, just enough. Yes, there is anxiety with the polls, but Biden is doing notably better than Clinton was in the polls, especially now. The mistake of leaving the blue wall behind isn't happening this time around either. And Biden's VP nominee isn't a loaf of white bread. There are so many things different this time around.
 
The main thing that is different is that Trump has the full force of government cheating on his behalf. DOJ, SCOTUS, DHS and all the rest, as well as the entire USTreasury to pay lawyers.
If Joe Biden is inaugurated in January, it will be reflective of what should have been a 300+ electoral vote rout, if there had been a free and fair election.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
Click to expand...

But Zogby had dignity and self-respect. This is Trafalgar, so they're not and right wing outlets will continue to fund their efforts for years to come.
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
Click to expand...

But Zogby had dignity and self-respect. This is Trafalgar, so they're not and right wing outlets will continue to fund their efforts for years to come.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
Cheerful Charlie said:
Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.
Click to expand...

But Zogby had dignity and self-respect. This is Trafalgar, so they're not and right wing outlets will continue to fund their efforts for years to come.
Click to expand...

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom