Two pollsters calling the race for Trump

[Jimmy Higgins]

Relax, Trafalgar is going to have hard time living this down after Biden wins. Zogby did so poorly in the past, they gave up presidential polling for a few years.

But Zogby had dignity and self-respect. This is Trafalgar, so they're not and right wing outlets will continue to fund their efforts for years to come.

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.

If Trump wins re-election, our democracy could be doomed. It means the right-wing has sold their soul to ban abortion and enshrine religiously based discrimination.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.

If Trump wins re-election, our democracy could be doomed. It means the right-wing has sold their soul to ban abortion and enshrine religiously based discrimination.

Sarcasm noted!

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Theocracy comes to America. Oh joy.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/10/iv...angry-philly-da-if-they-disrupt-election-day/

Meanwhile, back in Philadelphia

....

In a very blunt warning on CNN on Friday morning, Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner served notice to Donald Trump that a jail cell awaits him if he keeps encouraging his rabid followers to interfere with voters on Election Day.
Speaking with host Alisyn Camerota, Krasner was asked about a tweet he directed at the president this past week and what message he was trying to send to Trump when he wrote, “I’ve got something for you.”

​

“That means I’ve got a jail cell and I’ve got criminal charges and you can stand in front of a Philadelphia jury, which, by the way, is a diverse jury, and you can explain why you thought it was okay to come to Philly and steal our votes. This is the birthplace of democracy and we are not doing this — wannabe fascists stay home,” Krasner explained.
...

In the Trump circus, here in the Middle Ring, the Lion Tamer! Cheers!

 

[Swammerdami]

He gave HRC a 70% chance of winning. That was dead wrong.

The chance is 95.2% that a given hand at Twenty-one will not be Blackjack.

In your calculus, I suppose that whenever you get Blackjack — which, by the way, happens 4.8% of the time — you have disproven the laws of probability.

He gave HRC a 70% chance of winning. That was dead wrong.

Do yourself a favor and avoid the casinos.

Sounds like good advice.

 

[SLD]

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.

If Trump wins re-election, our democracy could be doomed. It means the right-wing has sold their soul to ban abortion and enshrine religiously based discrimination.

See my thread in General Religion.

The way to defeat him though is to win the Senate. It’s really more important. Trump can’t do much without controlling Congress. It’s why I’m not as doom and gloom if he wins re-election as long as Dems take back the Senate and Collins and McSally are sent packing. The 2022 elections are also important and an unpopular Trump could spell real trouble for even more Republican seats.

 

[Elixir]

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.

If Trump wins re-election, our democracy could be doomed. It means the right-wing has sold their soul to ban abortion and enshrine religiously based discrimination.

See my thread in General Religion.

The way to defeat him though is to win the Senate.

<clears throat>
Uh, the only way Trump continues as acting president is through the disqualification of ballots by SCOTUS.
Those are the SAME ballots that would have taken the Senate away from the Teapublicans.
In case you haven't been paying attention, courts in MN and elsewhere have now decided to disqualify mail-in ballots - even ones that were mailed prior to their decision - if not received by 11/3.
The right wing extremist cheating is in full swing.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Look at it another way, namely, that the liberals are winning.

Does anyone remember when people said Reagan could never be elected because he was divorced? I remember that being said. And now our present office-holder has been divorced repeatedly and has dozens of sexual allegations against him. And there are tons of other issues one can point to see clearly that the liberals continue to make major advances into conservative bastions. In effect, the conservatives like to say they are still conservative even though they are adopting all of these evil liberal ideas. Hell, I have two sisters who had children out of wedlock and they call themselves conservative. That's wonderful! That's victory of major proportions! So chill, okay?

I'd certainly like to see Biden Harris win. But even if they don't there is a lot to be celebrating. Change is slow but things have definitely changed and will continue to change. No, it isn't all rosy but on balance liberals can hold their heads high no matter the outcome.

If Trump wins re-election, our democracy could be doomed. It means the right-wing has sold their soul to ban abortion and enshrine religiously based discrimination.

See my thread in General Religion.

The way to defeat him though is to win the Senate. It’s really more important. Trump can’t do much without controlling Congress. It’s why I’m not as doom and gloom if he wins re-election as long as Dems take back the Senate and Collins and McSally are sent packing. The 2022 elections are also important and an unpopular Trump could spell real trouble for even more Republican seats.

There something much more important than the US Senate this election day.

The GOP fumbled something huge this election.

 

[Derec]

They see him winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose in Michigan and still win by my count.

He may be able to pull out a surprise in Pennsylvania. Between Dems' hostility to fracking and the latest rioting over some knife-wielding maniac getting shot by police, I think he will still be with a shout.

 

[Elixir]

They see him winning both Michigan and Pennsylvania. But Trump could lose in Michigan and still win by my count.

He may be able to pull out a surprise in Pennsylvania. Between Dems' hostility to fracking and the latest rioting over some knife-wielding maniac getting shot by police, I think he will still be with a shout.

That's all the Christian Taliban and the drunken rapist need to hand the presidency to Cheato. If it's within 5% and would make the difference, they are standing by ready to thwart the will of the voters.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Ann Selzer shift hard to Trump. She is the gold standard for Iowa polling. What does this mean? It shifts Ohio red. Nothing like a little bit more uncertainty.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

The Texas Supreme Court, all republican, just tossed a conservative suit to declare unconstitutional all drive thru votes in Harris County. But the conservative asswipes are hoping to prevail at the Federal level in their efforts to disenfranchise voters. Harris is largely democratic.

So fuck them and the horse they rode in on. I'm guardedly optimistic that Biden/Harris are going to win.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The Texas Supreme Court, all republican, just tossed a conservative suit to declare unconstitutional all drive thru votes in Harris County. But the conservative asswipes are hoping to prevail at the Federal level in their efforts to disenfranchise voters. Harris is largely democratic.

So fuck them and the horse they rode in on. I'm guardedly optimistic that Biden/Harris are going to win.

Roberts has generally gone with a 'Let the states decide' mindset, but with Barrett on the bench, she could completely fuck up the election as the remainder of the right-wing has been voting to 'fuck the Democrats'. .

 

[SLD]

It all depends on Pennsylvania. This is how I see it turning out. But I hope I’m wrong. I’d love to see Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia turn blue. As well as Florida and Ohio.

 

[SLD]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/

Nate Silver is also reminding people that Trump could still win. He too sees Pennsylvania as key and points out some problems for Joe with ballots and polls this close. I think polls may be useless at this point given the number of absentee ballots. We can’t rely on exit poling, but foxnews will, just so they can help Trump’s narrative that the race was stolen.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but in Miami-Dade, FL half a million have voted in-person early and 450,000 mail in ballots have been received (with just a 0.5% error issue!), which is about the turnout in 2016, and that doesn't include Election Day! There 1.5 million registered voters in Miami Dade County.

Trump didn't win Florida by a lot... well over a percent which is kind of a lot for the popular vote loser, which amounted to over 100,000 votes. If left wing support is crushing it in counties like Broward and Miami-Dade, it should be interesting how Florida turns out. I think Florida is a lot more likely than Ohio.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

The Texas Supreme Court, all republican, just tossed a conservative suit to declare unconstitutional all drive thru votes in Harris County. But the conservative asswipes are hoping to prevail at the Federal level in their efforts to disenfranchise voters. Harris is largely democratic.

So fuck them and the horse they rode in on. I'm guardedly optimistic that Biden/Harris are going to win.

Federal court just booted it out. So there. The clown responsible for this travesty was Dr. Steve Hotze. A right winged crank who has been a right winged pest here in Houston for decades. His hobby horse is homophobia.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but in Miami-Dade, FL half a million have voted in-person early and 450,000 mail in ballots have been received (with just a 0.5% error issue!), which is about the turnout in 2016, and that doesn't include Election Day! There 1.5 million registered voters in Miami Dade County.

Trump didn't win Florida by a lot... well over a percent which is kind of a lot for the popular vote loser, which amounted to over 100,000 votes. If left wing support is crushing it in counties like Broward and Miami-Dade, it should be interesting how Florida turns out. I think Florida is a lot more likely than Ohio.

538 is giving Biden a +69% chance of taking Florida. Biden is up +2.4% as of today. I have no idea how much rat fuckery Trump will be able to pull off there post election day. Real Clear gives Biden up +1.7% in Florida. Biden is up +6.7%. If we check 538 and run the slider up to only include A+ pollsters, Biden does much better except for ABC polling for some reason. Biden then is more like 4.5% looking at the polls minus ABC. 538 gives Biden up +8.4%

 

[SLD]

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but in Miami-Dade, FL half a million have voted in-person early and 450,000 mail in ballots have been received (with just a 0.5% error issue!), which is about the turnout in 2016, and that doesn't include Election Day! There 1.5 million registered voters in Miami Dade County.

Trump didn't win Florida by a lot... well over a percent which is kind of a lot for the popular vote loser, which amounted to over 100,000 votes. If left wing support is crushing it in counties like Broward and Miami-Dade, it should be interesting how Florida turns out. I think Florida is a lot more likely than Ohio.

538 is giving Biden a +69% chance of taking Florida. Biden is up +2.4% as of today. I have no idea how much rat fuckery Trump will be able to pull off there post election day. Real Clear gives Biden up +1.7% in Florida. Biden is up +6.7%. If we check 538 and run the slider up to only include A+ pollsters, Biden does much better except for ABC polling for some reason. Biden then is more like 4.5% looking at the polls minus ABC. 538 gives Biden up +8.4%

69% chance my ass. Nate Silver is a dumbfucker. Once again, like 2016 he has his head up his ass. Trafalgar once again is the best polling organization out there. As their CEO said, the others are committing polling malpractice. Fuck the pollsters.