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US Senate Challengers raise Big Money

The Senate seats most likely to flip in November - The Washington Post
  • R, safe: 10: AR, ID, LA, MS, NE, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY
  • R, in play: 13: AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, KY, ME, MT, NC, SC, TX
  • D, in play: 2: AL, MI
  • D, safe: 10: DE, IL, MA, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
In more detail,
  • Likely to flip: (D) AL, (R) AZ, CO
  • Tossups: (R) GA, IA, ME, MT, NC
  • Could flip under the right conditions: (D) MI, (R) AK, GA, KS, KY, SC, TX

In order: (likely) AL, CO, AZ, (tossups) NC, ME, IA, GA, MT, (could flip) GA, MI, SC, TX, KS, KY, AK
 
Opinion | Lots of GOP senators will pay the price for Trump sycophancy - The Washington Post by Jennifer Rubin

The only vulnerable Democrat is Doug Jones AL. Gary Peters MI is likely not very vulnerable.

She speculates: "The most imperiled may soon find themselves cut off from Republican money in a scramble to save more rescuable incumbents." They are:

ME Susan Collins, CO Cory Gardner, AZ Martha McSally, NC Thom Tillis

These vulnerabilities are enough to make the Senate tied.

Then MT Steve Daines, GA David Perdue & Kelly Loeffler, IA Joni Ernst, SC Lindsey Graham

JR calls LG "Trump’s most gag-inducing sycophant". This Senator
is tied in his race against Jamie Harrison. Graham is upside-down in approval (44 percent favorable vs. 49 percent unfavorable). “For Jaime Harrison, 47 percent have a favorable opinion, while 34 percent have an unfavorable opinion. Likely voters say 48 - 24 percent that Harrison is honest, and they say 49 - 40 percent that Graham is not honest,” Quinnipiac says.
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"Then you drop down to seats that you would not normally expect to flip, except in the not insignificant chance Trump loses in a landslide (in part because demoralized Republican voters don’t show up at the polls — and were told not to vote by mail!)."

Talk about self-inflicted injury. Will Republicans come to recognize how horrible it was to demonize voting by mail?

In Kansas, D Barbara Bollier is running "nip and tuck" against R Robert Marshall, the one that national Republicans preferred over Kris Kobach.

"Normally, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.) would be an easy winner, but on everything from DACA to repeal of Obamacare, he is finding himself on the defensive."
 
Warning signs flash for Lindsey Graham in South Carolina | TheHill
A Quinnipiac University poll of the state released this week — the second in a little more than a month — showed Graham and Harrison running neck and neck at 48 percent each.

In the two days since then, Harrison has pulled in a staggering $2 million, adding to an already massive $10.6 million haul in August alone. And in a sign that national Democrats are eyeing the race with greater enthusiasm, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a new seven-figure cash injection in the state.
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Good. The more the better That Trump toady deserves to be sent packing.

I aggregated the RCP, Cook, and WaPo predictions and I find:
  • +1: AZ
  • +1/2: CO
  • +1/3: ME, NC
  • 0: IA, MT
  • -1/2: GA
  • -1: AK, KS, KY, SC, TX
Where +1 is flip, 0 is tossup, and -1 is hold

This means a predicted average number of seat flips of 4 1/3 out of 12 seats.
 
I checked RealClearPolitics again, and I found these numbers:
  • VA +19.0 Likely D
  • MN +8.7 Lean D
  • AZ +6.7 Tossup
  • ME +6.2 Tossup
  • MI +3.6 Tossup
  • NC +3.6 Tossup
  • IA +0.4 Tossup
  • MT -1.6 Tossup
  • TX -8.3 Lean R
  • SC Lean R
  • KY Likely R
The number is the RCP average, + favors the Democrats, - the Republicans
 
I'll discuss some House races now -- there's at least one that indicates that Texas's Republican dominance may be threatened.

EXCLUSIVE: New Poll Shows Texas Democrat Donna Imam Only Six Points Behind Rep. John Carter

Donna Imam iis endorsed by both Andrew Yang and Bernie Sanders, and she is running in TX-31 against John Carter (R).

JC is ahead of DI by 6%, but that may close. In previous elections, JC won by:
  • 2018: R 50.6% D 47.7% L 1.7%
  • 2016: R 58.4% D 36.5% L 5.2%
  • 2014: R 64% D 32% L 4%
  • 2012: R 61.3% D 35% L 3.7%
  • 2010: R 82.5% L 17.5%
  • 2008: R 60.3% D 36.6% L 3.2%
  • 2006: R 58.5% D 38.8% L 2.7%
  • 2004: R 64.8% D 32.5% L 2.8%
  • 2002: R 69.1% D 27.4% L 1.3% G 1.2% I 1.1%
So he could be vulnerable this time.

Tight race brewing in Nebraska House contest: internal poll | TheHill - back in July. In NE-02, Kara Eastman (D) is ahead of incumbent Don Bacon (R) by 1%. She lost to him in 2018 by 2%, so she has a chance to win.
 
2020 Senate Project - "We’re excited to announce a partnership between Indivisible and Data for Progress to provide high-quality public opinion polls in key Senate races."

MI: D 47%, # 12%, R 42%
D Gary Peters, R John James

KY: D 39%, # 12%, R 46%, L 3%
D Amy McGrath, R Mitch McConnell, L Brad Barron

KS D 40% # 15%, R 40%, L 5%
D Barbara Bollier, R Roger Marshall, L Jason Buckley

GA D 41%, # 14%, R 43%, L 2%
D Jon Ossoff, R David Perdue, L Shane Hazel

GA Special D1 26%, D2 14%, # 17%, R1 22%, R2 21%
D1 Raphael Warnock, D2 Matt Lieberman, R1 Doug Collins, R2 Kelly Loeffler

# = undecided, L = Libertarian

The GA Special one will likely go into a runoff, with likely advancers Raphael Warnock and one of the Republicans.
 
Dem Challengers Show Gains In Senate Race Polling | Morning Joe | MSNBC - YouTube
  • NC D 48%, R 38% -- +-3.6%
  • ME D 45%, R 41% -- +-3.4%
  • SC R 45%, D 44% -- +-3.8%
  • GA R 47% D 42% -- +-3.4%
  • MI D 49% R 44%-- +-4.3%
Democratic super PAC launches ad campaign in S.C. against Sen. Graham - The Washington Post
Senate Majority PAC will launch a new, $6.5 million ad campaign in South Carolina on Monday, marking the first time that the super PAC has gone on the air this cycle in the traditional GOP stronghold. The effort to bolster Democrat Jaime Harrison’s prospects includes $5 million in television ads and a $1.5 million digital campaign.

The television ad, which launches Tuesday, focuses on prescription drug prices, criticizing Graham for having “gone Washington” and “gone bad” on the issue.

“There’s a reason Lindsey Graham is hitting the panic button and begging for donations on cable news: He’s vulnerable and he knows it,” said the super PAC’s president, J.B. Poersch. “Jaime Harrison has put this seat in play by running a strong campaign and earning the trust of South Carolinians who are ready for change.”
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Yes, the Knock Down The House costar:
Paula Jean Swearengin Blasts Her GOP Opponent's Incompetence and Corruption | Interview - YouTube
Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito
 
Opinion | Joni Ernst is now in trouble. Trump is a huge part of her problem. - The Washington Post
One big reason Republicans are shoving a Supreme Court appointment through the Senate before the election is their rising fear of losing the upper chamber — and the White House — in November. Those fears are well-founded. Two weeks ago, one of the most respected polls in politics found Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) trailing Democrat Theresa Greenfield by three percentage points.

The Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll also found that all four of Iowa’s congressional races are dead heats — unusual in a state that went so bigly for Trump in 2016. The poll also found Joe Biden and Donald Trump deadlocked at 47 percent to 47 percent, a slight improvement for Biden in recent months.

...
Trump is a huge part of Ernst’s problem. She stood by him when he started trade wars with our biggest ag export customers: China, Mexico and Canada. Then, Trump toyed with the ethanol industry for three years while prices plummeted. And the pandemic is out of control in Iowa while Congress dithers over aid. Among Ernst’s biggest shortcomings is that she has not done enough to help Cedar Rapids, the state’s second-largest city, which was clobbered by the 140 mph winds of an August derecho.
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Association with Trump may also drag down some other Republican Senators.
 
Senate races from realclearpolitics.com - mean, stdev
  • GA: R Perdue*, D Ossoff -- R 2.8 +- 2.0
  • TX: R Cornyn*, D Hegar -- R 8.0 +- 2.3
  • NC: D Cunningham, R Tillis* -- D 6.0 +- 1.8
  • NH: D Shaheen*, R Messner -- D 36.5 +- 0.5
  • MI: D Peters*, R James -- D 3.8 +- 2.4
  • MN D Smith*, R Lewis -- D 8.5 +- 1.1
  • SC R Graham*, D Harrison -- R 2.0 +- 2.9
  • ME D Gideon, R Collins* -- D 6.5 +- 3.2
  • IA D Greenfield, R Ernst* -- D 2.7 +- 0.5
  • VA D Warner*, R Gade -- D 17.0 +- 3.3
  • MT R Daines*, D Bullock -- R 1.7 +- 3.3

The GA Senate special election has five candidates. If no candidates get a majority in either this one or the general one this year, then the top two will go head-to-head in a runoff election.

The raw numbers:
Poll Date Sample Loeffler (R) Warnock (D) Collins (R) Lieberman (D) Tarver (D) Slowinski (L) Spread
RCP Average 7/2 - 9/27 -- 23.8 21.3 21.3 10.3 4.7 3.0 Loeffler +2.5
Quinnipiac 9/23 - 9/27 1125 LV 23 31 22 9 4 -- Warnock +8
Monmouth 9/17 - 9/21 402 LV 23 23 23 11 3 3 Tie
NYT/Siena 9/16 - 9/21 523 LV 23 19 19 7 4 -- Loeffler +4
U. of GA 9/11 - 9/20 1150 LV 24 20 21 11 5 3 Loeffler +3
WXIA/SUSA 8/6 - 8/8 623 LV 26 17 17 13 3 -- Loeffler +9
Gravis 7/2 - 7/2 513 RV 24 18 26 11 9 -- Collins +2
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So Warnock and Collins are neck-and-neck for second place.
 
Kurt "Mask Up, Vote Early" Eichenwald on Twitter: "Having watched @LindseyGrahamSC @harrisonjaime debate, I feel sadness for Lindsey. He’s so compromised by Washington, he’s forgotten what being a senator is about. Jaime spoke of serving the people of SC. Lindsey spewed Fox talking points, calling half his constituents “nuts.”" / Twitter

Playoff Sean Kent on Twitter: "Question about bipartisanship and Lindsey Graham blows it by calling Democrats “nuts”. Then Jaime Harrison absolutely buries him with his rebuttal. https://t.co/Q1EStEzcIL" / Twitter


Latest Senate and House ratings are good news for Democrats - CNNPolitics
noting
Inside Elections

Senate race ratings with (former) incumbents' parties:
  • Solid Democratic: D: DE, IL, MA, MN, NH, NJ, (NM), OR, RI, VA
  • Likely Democratic:
  • Lean Democratic: D: MI
  • Tilt Democratic: R: AZ', CO, ME, NC
  • Tossup: R: IA, MT
  • Tilt Republican: GA, SC
  • Lean Republican: D: AL ... R: GA', (KS), TX
  • Likely Republican: R: AK
  • Solid Republican: R: AR, ID, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SD, (TN), WV, (WY)
() - open seat, ' - special
 
Republicans face major head winds in final stretch to maintain Senate majority - The Washington Post
... Republicans saw the fight over a Supreme Court vacancy as a chance to boost their political fortunes. Court fights typically rally the GOP base, and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) encouraged Trump to move quickly to select a conservative nominee to galvanize voters.

But the GOP’s predicted Supreme Court bump has yet to materialize.

...
Rather than serving as a major boost to their campaigns, Trump’s Supreme Court announcement at the White House on Sept. 26 appears to have served as a superspreader event, with a couple dozen infections connected to that day. That is certain to bring Trump’s response to the pandemic to the forefront of voter’s minds in the lead-up to Nov. 3 — the last thing Republicans wanted.
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Mitch McConnell conceded that his fellow Republicans have tough fights in KS and GA, even in SC.
That concern grew deeper as Democratic challengers began unveiling eye-popping fundraising totals, revealing that anti-Trump liberal energy has only grown stronger as sides gird for a Supreme Court fight.

In North Carolina, Cal Cunningham (D), running in what many consider the tipping-point race, raised more than $28 million, a three-month haul that represents more than double the amount that Tillis, the GOP incumbent, raised in the previous 5½ years.

...
Overall, Democratic candidates MJ Hegar in Texas and Raphael Warnock in Georgia reported raising $13.5 million and $12.5 million, providing enough funds to turn races where Republicans had distinct advantages into more competitive battles in the final weeks. And GOP strategists were bracing for a potentially record-setting haul from Jaime Harrison, the South Carolina Democrat who has forced Republicans to divert about $10 million to defend Sen. Lindsey O. Graham in a state Trump won by more than 14 percentage points four years ago.

“We have grassroots momentum behind us, we hold an advantage on the issues that matter most to voters, and we continue to have a strong path to winning back the majority,” Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) said in a statement to The Washington Post. “The Republicans’ mismanaged response to this pandemic and the rush to confirm a Supreme Court justice . . . has underscored just how important it is to flip the Senate.”
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I must say that it's good to see Congress getting a lot of attention. The Presidency is not enough.
 
The Republicans have divided up their incumbents into two tiers with four each:

The most vulnerable: Thom Tillis NC, Susan Collins ME, Cory Gardner CO, Martha McSally AZ

The firewall: Joni Ernst IA, Steve Daines M, David Perdue GA, Kelly Loeffler GA

The Democrats expect Doug Jones to lose in Alabama to the R candidate, Tommy Tuberville.
Yet there are fresh signs that even the GOP’s firewall is cracking. In Georgia, a recent Quinnipiac University poll shows Warnock ahead, with the special election turning into a nail-biter amid Republican infighting. Rep. Douglas A. Collins (R-Ga.) has waged a vicious campaign against Loeffler, siphoning off GOP support she needs to defeat the little-known Black Baptist pastor from Atlanta.
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Lindsey Graham:
“I’m getting overwhelmed,” he told prime-time host Sean Hannity late last month. Then, he turned to Hannity’s viewers, adding: “Help me! They’re killing me money-wise. Help me. You did last week. Help me again.”
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He's running scared.

Republicans are targeting one Democratic incumbent: Gary Peters MI.
But in debates Saturday night, Graham and Ernst found themselves on the defensive over the coronavirus, the government response and some of their past comments.

Graham, the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, sought to focus on his concerted effort to confirm Barrett. But Harrison, who brought his own plexiglass divider as he shared the stage with Graham, criticized the response to the disease.

“We failed to act,” Harrison said. “The Senate failed to act. The White House failed to act. The governors failed to act. We need leaders who are going to step up and act.”

Graham called the virus “serious” but said that “we have to move on as a nation.”

In Iowa, Democratic challenger Theresa Greenfield called on Ernst to apologize for her comments last month echoing a conspiracy theory that the death count has been overcounted and arguing that health-care providers are reimbursed at a higher rate when deaths are linked to covid-19.

“I have apologized to our health-care workers and I will apologize again tonight,” Ernst said. “I am so sorry that my words may have offended you. I know that you are tremendous workers. You are essential workers.”
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I decided to look at some progressive candidates. The numbers are 538's estimated chance of winning, followed by the average victory margin in 538's simulations.
  • AOC NY-14 >99% +60%
  • Ayanna Pressley MA-07 100% (no opposition)
  • Rashida Tlaib MI-13 >99% +60%
  • Ilhan Omar MN-05 >99% +40%
  • Marie Newman IL-03 98% +20%
  • Jamaal Bowman NY-16 >99% +70%
  • Mondaire Jones NY-17 >99% +30%
  • Cori Bush MO-01 >99% +60%
  • Katie Porter CA-45 93% +15%
  • Pramila Jayapal* WA-07 >99% +60%
  • Ro Khanna* CA-17 >99% +50%
  • Maxine Waters* CA-43 >99% +50%
  • Lauren Underwood* IL-14 84% +10%
  • Jon Hoadley MI-06 29% -5%
  • Donna Imam TX-31 4% -15%
  • Nick Rubando OH-05 <1% -25%
  • Shahid Buttar CA-12 <1% -50%
  • Marquita Bradshaw TN-SEN <1% -25%
  • Paula Jean Swearengin WV-SEN <1% -30%

Finally, the Congressmember for my district:
Peter DeFazio OR-05 79% +5%
 
Four weeks to go: Lindsey Graham joins 10 most vulnerable senators list - Roll Call - "In an otherwise unpredictable year, the list of most vulnerable senators running for reelection has stayed largely stable."

I then went to 2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
  1. Doug Jones D-AL 24% ... Tom Tuberville R 76%
  2. Cory Gardner R-CO 25% ... John Hickenlooper D 75%
  3. Martha McSally R-AZ 21% ... Mark Kelly D 79%
  4. Susan Collins R-ME 38% ... Sara Gideon D 62%
  5. Thom Tillis R-NC 36% ... Cal Cunningham D 64%
  6. Joni Ernst R-IA 49% ... Theresa Greenfield D 51%
  7. David Perdue R-GA 74% ... Jon Ossoff D 26%
  8. Steve Daines R-MT 70% ... Steve Bullock D 30%
  9. Lindsey Graham R-SC 76% ... Jaime Harrison D 24%
  10. Gary Peters D-MI 80% ... John James R 20%
More:
  • Kelly Loeffler, Doug Collins R-GA-Spec 76% ... Raphael Warnock D 24%
  • Roger Marshall R-KS 78% ... Barbara Bollier D 22%
  • Tina Smith D-MN 93% ... Jason Lewis R 7%
  • Ben Ray Luján 94% ... Mark Ronchetti R 6%
  • Jeanne Shaheen D-NH 98% ... Corky Messner R 2%
  • Mark Warner D-VA 99% ... Daniel Gade R 1%
I find that the Democrats have an average win of seats of 3.45.
 
These 10 members of the House are most vulnerable in November - Republicans in suburbs, Democrats that won "blue wave" victories in 2018

2020 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight
  1. Don Bacon R-NE-02 63% ... Kara Eastman 37%
  2. Xochitl Torres Small D-NM-02 66% ... Yvette Herrell 34%
  3. Max Rose D-NY-11 71% ... Nicole Malliotakis 29%
  4. John Katko R-NY-24 60% ... Dana Balter 40%
  5. Steve Chabot R-OH-01 67% ... Kate Schroder 33%
  6. TJ Cox D-CA-21 52% ... David Valadao 48%
  7. Mike Garcia R-CA-25 44% ... Christy Smith 56%
  8. Collin C Peterson D-MN-07 26% ... Michelle Fischbach 74%
  9. Anthony Brindisi D-NY-22 70% ... Claudia Tenney 30%
  10. Jeff Van Drew R-NJ-02 57% ... Amy Kennedy 43%
538 gives the Democrats a 94% chance of holding on to the House.
 
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