US Senate Challengers raise Big Money

[lpetrich]

Rachel Bitecofer's article was written using data collected on September 20, 2020. I'll compare her model to 538's model - 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight

• Presidency: RB: B 93.4% T 6.6% ... 538 B 77% T 23% ... (now) 538 B 88% T 12%
• Senate: RB: D 80.2% R 19.8% ... 538 D 58% R 42% ... (now) 538 D 75% R 25%

Specifically for our Presidential forecast, political polling survey results are not used to inform our modeling, other than for determining incumbent approval ratings. The input criteria used in our modeling directly reflects measurements of potential for negative partisanship and demographic realignment to occur among defined electorates. Therefore, previous election data and demographic data are heavily relied on in this model.

RB takes for granted that the Democrats will hold the House, something that 538 gives a 97% chance of happening.

A note on Texas. I am bullish, right now, on about 6 of the Texas House races- but am assuming an aggressive final push for these districts and strong messaging. Trump has served up the perfect situation for Democrats in Texas- the question is whether they will properly exploit it.

RB asks "Why Has Negative Partisanship Been Such An Effective Predictor of the 2020 Election Cycle?"

When this model was first released, in July of 2019, it argued that come October of 2020, the Democratic nominee would be in a dominant position to win the Electoral College and that Democrats would be poised to gain seats in the House and possibly take the Senate majority. At that time, the status quo opinion was that Donald Trump was actually in a strong position for reelection due to the economy and conditions governing the congressional elections were nebulous.

So the Republicans would be expected to hold on to the Senate and possibly gain seats in the House.

This outlook ignored changes in voting behavior due to polarization and hyperpartisanship, and frankly, “normalized” Donald Trump- assuming he would do and say things strategically optimal for reelection. As President Trump’s behavior with coronavirus shows, Trump is not, and has never been, capable of behaving as a normal candidate. Even in a campaign environment that did not experience a pandemic, Trump would find himself generating massive negative partisanship effects from an electorate larger in size than his own coalition. The difference between the pre and post-pandemic environment, both due to the severity of the pandemic from the mismanagement of the response and due to the economic damage from it, is that Trump is also suffering greater loss of support from “pure” Independents than he might have otherwise- the persuasion band is larger than it might have been. As it turns out, even in the age of polarization, voters become more persuadable when your greed and gross incompetence is literally killing them.

She talked about "hidden Trump voters" (shy Trumpies), and she concluded that there aren't many of them. They don't show up in polls with greater anonymity than others.

So, after a summer of preventable death at an inconceivable scale, social unrest, and social awakening, it’s the same as it ever was: an election cycle that from the top of the ballot, to the bottom, will be wholly defined by Donald Trump and the deep fear (or love) he inspires within dueling coalitions of the electorate.

Then the issue of voting by mail and Trump's attacking it as vulnerable to fraud and different from absentee voting. Except for vote-by-mail in Florida.

 

[lpetrich]

If you look closely, you’ll note that this analysis reveals some “softness” within the Republican coalition this cycle that is absent among Democrats. Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic, especially now that the Woodward interviews have revealed the intentionality behind that mismanagement, appears to have increased the receptivity among some Republicans–especially those over the age of 65–to vote for Biden over Trump.

Rachel Bitecofer's Texas numbers depend on a big campaign push there, and that seems to be happening.

The race seems to be loosening rather than tightening.

• 2020 Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - Biden 89%, Trump 11%
• 2020 Senate Election Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - D 78% R 22%
• 2020 House Forecast | FiveThirtyEight - D 98% R 2%

 

[ZiprHead]

[TWEET]<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sen. David Perdue doesn't deserve to be re-elected. <a href="https://t.co/S7Zi3dsnik">pic.twitter.com/S7Zi3dsnik</a></p>— Jon Ossoff (@ossoff) <a href="https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1321655331940929543?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">October 29, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>[/TWEET]

BURN!!!

Would you like some aloe vera, senator?

Perdue and Ossoff were supposed to debate again this coming Sunday. Perdue has now backed out.

 

[Rhea]

I'm surprised at Perdue running and hiding like that. Wonder how that will play in GA?

 

[lpetrich]

Lindsey Graham on Twitter: "I believe in saving our environment without destroying our economy. @AOC supports my opponent, and there's a reason... #SCSen https://t.co/P4vK5WJ8lY" / Twitter

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Twitter: ".@LindseyGrahamSC I’m not sure you believe in *anything* except preserving yourself. & let’s not get started on your climate denial.

I’ve seen a lot of spinelessness in DC, but you’re at the top when it comes to folding on your own values like a wet napkin.

SC deserves better." / Twitter


Jer Johns on Twitter: "@LindseyGrahamSC @AOC I have never once heard you talk about the environment, except to deny climate change. All you and the GOP care about is money for yourselves. It’s an old song and dance and quite frankly we’re all tired of it." / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

WL Election Index for this year - has tabs for the Electoral College and the Senate and House races. Nice work of getting all that data in one place.

 

[Gospel]

[YOUTUBE]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEO4bGyZtjg&ab_channel=BelieveMeNews[/YOUTUBE]