Of course it has. We have tonnes of data on it. This is exceedingly easy numbers to sift out.
In fact, sentences are usually only increases as a response to crime rates increasing for a number of other reasons, thus nothing can be inferred from whether the rates decrease after the changes because those other factors are likely still operating to counter any impact of the change.
In USA, how this research is done is that two counties with similar demographics but in different states are compared. And it's not just two such counties. All this data is already collected. All they have to do is go back through the numbers and check. This is not difficult research to do.
Clearly, you didn't actually read or understand my full post and are just reacting to the first line. Three-strikes laws only apply to the kind of repeat chronic criminals who wind up in prison multiple times and thus are, by definition, abnormal and non-representative of the majority of the population who never wind up in prison once. Nothing about the impact of such a law informs us about the impact of the threat of prison on the majority population. What the effect of such a law tells us is that repeat criminals are abnormal in how they respond to the threat of prison (which we already know) and that the actual experience of prison may have net effects (such as induction into a criminal network) that override any deterrent effect on those who actually go there. Again, that is a completely separate issue from the deterrent effect on those who do not go there.The American three strikes and you're out hasn't worked according to plan, has it?
The definition of insanity is to do the same thing over and over and expect a different result.
If people are repeat offenders then obviously the system isn't working. It's not deterring people. The three strikes is to keep doing what we know has failed twice and expect it to work the third time. Obviously it won't.
We can compare crime rates from before and after the three strikes law. We can compare crime rates of states with three strikes laws and those who don't. Of course we know exactly how well these deter would be criminals. The answer is not at all. All this law leads to is you having to fork up for years of an inmate hotel. It's a wasted life and wasted money. What's the point?
Is drinking alcohol any more "decent" than smoking pot?I think most people follow the law because the law is mostly designed around what most people do. Most people are decent.
Is stealing an illegal online bootleg of a just released film any more "decent" than stealing the DVD from a Wallmart? (BTW: the answer by any defensible ethics is "no").
Is punching someone in an alley and more decent than punching them in the middle of a police station parking lot?
None of the former are any more "decent" than the latter, and yet people are many times less likely to do the latter, and the reason is almost entirely a fear of going to jail.
Now you're getting oddly specific. I think you understand me just fine in spite of this odd answer. Stealing is illegal because most people think it should be. Murder and rape is illegal for the same reason. It's not harder than that. We're not refraining from raping one another because it is illegal. We're refraining from doing it because it's morally reprehensible. Even if it would be legal I suspect rapists would be about as rare as today.
We know why smoking pot is illegal. The architect of the policy has come clean. It was a war on hippies and black people. They wanted to be able to arrest and clamp down on the people who were criticising Nixon's Vietnam policy. That's all it was. The mystery is why it still is and why the rest of the world joined in on this bullshit crusade.
Whether or not punching somebody in the face is right or wrong is context dependent, regardless of where it's done. It is sometimes legal to punch somebody in the face. It isn't always illegal.
I remember, when I was a kid, being given the Anarchist paper 'Freedom'. It had an excellent article on 'What is wrong with the Prison System?', and quite a short one. It read: 'Prisons'.
Counties do not randomly choose different types of sentences. Those differences are the result of countless differences in social and political culture, the type of people who live there, economic factors, etc.. Each of these factors impacts crime rates is are also correlated to countless other differences between the counties that impact crime rates, including things as subtle as population density, that state of the infrastructure, etc..
No study you can point to comes remotely close to fully controlling for all these confounding factors. Which means that no study allows for valid conclusions about the effects or non-effects of sentencing on long-term crime rates.
Again, you are missing the point entirely. The question is not about why people agree that something should be illegal. Most people who commit various crimes, generally agree that the thing they did should in principle be illegal. Most people that don't smoke pot think it should be legal, yet many do not smoke it simply because they fear the consequences of breaking the law, but they do the objectively more dangerous thing of drinking alcohol because it isn't illegal and their choices are more determined by a fear prison more than even by a fear of chemical addiction and health consequences, which are both more severe with the drinking they do. Beliefs about what generally should be legal have minimal bearing on whether one chooses to act in accord or in violation of the law, rather fear of legal consequences plays a far bigger role in behavior.
That is the point of my example instances. Most people agree that the two actions in each example are equal in their decency/indecency and should be similarly illegal or legal. Yet, most people are far more likely to engage in the former action in each pair, even though they differ only in legal consequences like prison. This illustrates that consequences have a huge impact on behavioral decisions, whether someone breaks a particular law, and which laws they break and how they break them.
That is also irrelevant to the point. The two actions I described could have the same "context" that determine that both actions are equally illegal and equally immoral, and yet people would be far far less likely to perform the action in one location (the police station parking lot) solely because they are more likely to get arrested for it and thus go to jail. The fear of punishment is the sole determinant of the difference in the likelihood of these otherwise identical actions. These are merely 3 of nearly infinite examples where morally equivalent actions are engaged in at dramatically different rates merely due to one being more likely to land you in prison, thus illustrating the massive causal deterrent effect of prison on behaviors.
Just answer these two very simple questions: Think about the generally law abiding people you know who have never been to jail. Do you think they find the idea of going to prison scary? Do you think that they are less likely to do something if the consequences for them are scary?
If the answer is "no" to either of these, then you know some very odd and abnormal people. IF the answer is yes to both, then it neccessary follows that fear of prison is a deterent among the people that have avoided going to prison.
They don't have to be random. We could hypothetically create a randomized selection, and then go looking for counties that match the randomized selection. So it will be random even though the process with which the laws came to be is random.
Statistics (as used in proper science) is mostly about posing meaningful questions. I think you'd be surprised just how powerful statistical analysis is (if in the right hands). When idiots use statistics to prove bullshit position, that's one thing. But this is scientists using statistics who's mission isn't to fool people or to argue some position. They're just on a mission to figure out what is true. Statistics is a powerful tool and I think you underestimate it.
Again, you are missing the point entirely. The question is not about why people agree that something should be illegal. Most people who commit various crimes, generally agree that the thing they did should in principle be illegal. Most people that don't smoke pot think it should be legal, yet many do not smoke it simply because they fear the consequences of breaking the law, but they do the objectively more dangerous thing of drinking alcohol because it isn't illegal and their choices are more determined by a fear prison more than even by a fear of chemical addiction and health consequences, which are both more severe with the drinking they do. Beliefs about what generally should be legal have minimal bearing on whether one chooses to act in accord or in violation of the law, rather fear of legal consequences plays a far bigger role in behavior.
That is the point of my example instances. Most people agree that the two actions in each example are equal in their decency/indecency and should be similarly illegal or legal. Yet, most people are far more likely to engage in the former action in each pair, even though they differ only in legal consequences like prison. This illustrates that consequences have a huge impact on behavioral decisions, whether someone breaks a particular law, and which laws they break and how they break them.
Ok, here's an example, myself. I like drugs. Sweden has very harsh drug laws, comparatively. I don't do drugs that often. But it happens. I'd say I do exactly as much drugs as I like. The fact that drugs come with harsh penalties in Sweden is a non-factor in my life. I'm pretty sure I would go to jail for the drugs I have at home right now. If the cops found it. For professional reasons a criminal record would be a disaster for me. I don't care. I'm not going to stop living because a bunch of anxious nerds happen to be in charge of making laws. Deterrence obviously isn't working on me. And neither is it working on my friends. I'd say all the cool people in Sweden are very liberal around drugs. They all have drugs at home and parties here are overflowing with them.
That is also irrelevant to the point. The two actions I described could have the same "context" that determine that both actions are equally illegal and equally immoral, and yet people would be far far less likely to perform the action in one location (the police station parking lot) solely because they are more likely to get arrested for it and thus go to jail. The fear of punishment is the sole determinant of the difference in the likelihood of these otherwise identical actions. These are merely 3 of nearly infinite examples where morally equivalent actions are engaged in at dramatically different rates merely due to one being more likely to land you in prison, thus illustrating the massive causal deterrent effect of prison on behaviors.
Ok. now I get it. The research shows that the only deterrent is that of chances of getting caught. The harshness of the punishment of the crime is a non-factor. Nobody commits a crime if they think they might get caught. So you're quite correct that people are more likely to punch people somewhere where you don't get caught. But that adds zero weight to your argument that the length of the prison sentence is a deterrence, or even a factor at all. All research shows that it isn't.
Just answer these two very simple questions: Think about the generally law abiding people you know who have never been to jail. Do you think they find the idea of going to prison scary? Do you think that they are less likely to do something if the consequences for them are scary?
If the answer is "no" to either of these, then you know some very odd and abnormal people. IF the answer is yes to both, then it neccessary follows that fear of prison is a deterent among the people that have avoided going to prison.
It certainly isn't working on me and my friends. I think we're normal for Sweden. Drug use it quote common in Sweden today. The last couple of decades have been a monumental cultural shift. I think our degree of drug use today is in line with the rest of Europe today. The only difference being the harshness of our drug laws, which are very harsh indeed.
No, he did not. The point you are repeatedly missing is that when somebody says X, and you have forty-seven other premises that when combined with X let you derive Y, that does not mean the guy said Y. It is a reasoning error on your part to conclude that he did so, no matter how strongly you believe your forty-seven other premises, and even if all those premises are correct! To know whether skepticalbip was saying Y, you need to reason from his beliefs, not from yours. This is elementary logic. You are being irrational.Here is what an accusation of a poorly constructed argument and a request for clarification do not look like:
"Are you somehow claiming that blacks are somehow inferior to whites? Physically or mentally? That is what you are saying isn't it?"
You do not appear to be enough of a newcomer to the English language to be unfamiliar with what the construction "That is what you are saying, isn't it?" means. You might as well claim "Have you stopped beating your wife yet?" isn't an accusation of wife-beating because it's phrased as a question.
Yes, that is the form of what he was saying. But he said it!
He denied class differences being the cause of continued black impoverishment. I'm sorry, but that only leaves race theory as an option. If a player keeps losing either the game is rigged or there's something wrong with the player. It's either one or the other.
I didn't say you had; I was pointing out that what you wrote didn't address what I'd written so you had no basis for using it to claim I'd offered a false dichotomy.Your opinion that this would be an effective replacement is simply irrelevant to the issue in dispute. You know as well as I do that ankle monitors are not, in point of fact, a punishment to replace prisons with "that we have been able to collectively convince ourselves would be effective". You have therefore not produced a substantive counterargument against what I said.
I presented the actual history in order to disprove your libelous contention
What? I haven't argued for ankle monitors specifically.
Another point you are persistently missing is that the effect of laws and what laws are designed around are two different things. Surely in the course of your superb mastery of English you've encountered the phrase "unintended consequences"? White collar crimes are judged less harshly than blue collar crimes not because legislators are hostile to poor people but because having your bank account pilfered is a mathematical abstraction while getting robbed in the street at knife point is a gut-wrenching appeal to 500 million years of naturally-selected neural reactions to predators. Duh! Rich people do not get lighter punishments than poor people because the laws are designed to be mean to poor people but because rich people can afford better lawyers. Duh!that laws are designed around protecting rich white people's property and the laws are designed around redefining their stealing so that it's legal, while poor people crime is judged as harshly as possible. What is known as security theatre. The goal isn't to protect people, it's to make people feel safe, in spite of not being protected at all
First, write a post that shows you know how to refrain from libeling people for not having believed whatever you happen to believe. Then ask people their theory behind whatever you think they need a theory for.
I was being slightly facetious. But only slightly. White collar crimes are judged less harshly than blue collar crimes. Rich people get lighter punishments than poor people. Are you denying this?
No, he did not. The point you are repeatedly missing is that when somebody says X, and you have forty-seven other premises that when combined with X let you derive Y, that does not mean the guy said Y. It is a reasoning error on your part to conclude that he did so, no matter how strongly you believe your forty-seven other premises, and even if all those premises are correct! To know whether skepticalbip was saying Y, you need to reason from his beliefs, not from yours. This is elementary logic. You are being irrational.Yes, that is the form of what he was saying. But he said it!
The fact that you haven't got the imagination to think of a third alternative does not mean skepticalbip hasn't.
Incidentally, where the devil do you think you saw him deny class differences being the cause of continued black impoverishment? That looks like yet another thing you made up and imputed to him based on combining something he said with some more of your unstated and probably poorly thought out premises. I don't see anywhere where he offered an opinion on causes of black poverty.
Another point you are persistently missing is that the effect of laws and what laws are designed around are two different things. Surely in the course of your superb mastery of English you've encountered the phrase "unintended consequences"? White collar crimes are judged less harshly than blue collar crimes not because legislators are hostile to poor people but because having your bank account pilfered is a mathematical abstraction while getting robbed in the street at knife point is a gut-wrenching appeal to 500 million years of naturally-selected neural reactions to predators. Duh! Rich people do not get lighter punishments than poor people because the laws are designed to be mean to poor people but because rich people can afford better lawyers. Duh!I was being slightly facetious. But only slightly. White collar crimes are judged less harshly than blue collar crimes. Rich people get lighter punishments than poor people. Are you denying this?
Rich people are more likely to recover from diseases than poor people. Are you denying this? Do you think that makes it okay for me to go around saying "DrZoidberg says the medical profession is designed around killing blacks."?
Again, you are missing the point entirely. The question is not about why people agree that something should be illegal. Most people who commit various crimes, generally agree that the thing they did should in principle be illegal. Most people that don't smoke pot think it should be legal, yet many do not smoke it simply because they fear the consequences of breaking the law, but they do the objectively more dangerous thing of drinking alcohol because it isn't illegal and their choices are more determined by a fear prison more than even by a fear of chemical addiction and health consequences, which are both more severe with the drinking they do. Beliefs about what generally should be legal have minimal bearing on whether one chooses to act in accord or in violation of the law, rather fear of legal consequences plays a far bigger role in behavior.
That is the point of my example instances. Most people agree that the two actions in each example are equal in their decency/indecency and should be similarly illegal or legal. Yet, most people are far more likely to engage in the former action in each pair, even though they differ only in legal consequences like prison. This illustrates that consequences have a huge impact on behavioral decisions, whether someone breaks a particular law, and which laws they break and how they break them.
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Why don't you have any drugs in your home that you would go to prison for?
Why is alcohol consumed by a much higher % people and more frequently in nearly every country than are drugs that people are imprisoned for? The only plausible answer is because of fear of prison, because many of those illegal drugs are less dangerous than the alcohol most people drink instead.
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Do have friends that smoke pot? Do they smoke it out in the open at bars and on the street? If they don't, the only plausible reason they don't is because they are afraid of jail and thus they alter their actions and limit their illegal actions to avoid jail.
You're just not giving a minutes honest thought to the countless ways that you and everyone you know alter their actions on a daily basis to avoid imprisonment.
Ok. now I get it. The research shows that the only deterrent is that of chances of getting caught. The harshness of the punishment of the crime is a non-factor. Nobody commits a crime if they think they might get caught. So you're quite correct that people are more likely to punch people somewhere where you don't get caught. But that adds zero weight to your argument that the length of the prison sentence is a deterrence, or even a factor at all. All research shows that it isn't.
I am not arguing that the exact length of a prison sentence is a factor. I said it probably isn't because most people do not know what the various specific lengths are. I am arguing that just the threat of being sent to prison in general (for any length of time) is very frightening to the average person.
It claims that drug use in public and at clubs is relatively rare in Sweden, and that pot smoking is far less frequent than other European countries, such as in Chech Republic where it is 4 times as common and 3 times more common in Britain, Belgium, and Netherlands where it is either legal or laws about personal use are rarely enforced. Similar patterns of much higher drug use in countries where penalties are less are reported for Cocaine and ecstasy. In contrast, alcohol consumption does not follow the same pattern. For example, Sweden consumes about the same amount of alcohol per capita as the Netherlands. Why? Because alcohol is legal in both countries, so consumption doesn't show the same pattern as for drugs that are illegal in one but not the other.
i’m a gay, intellectual buddhist who spent time in a maximum security prison – and i might have said some things to disrespect my people inside. let me clarify. i was never beaten, raped or had my shit taken, except by screws. i saw some awful shit, but it was the screw shining a flashlight up my ass every day on the way to ‘work’ (where we make your street and road signs – but only about 10% get paid and only .50/hr, but you get to live in the worker dorm, instead of the mf thunderdorm, so that’s something). my people, jackett, gary, mike, dan, looked out for me and me for them. you walk the path of the lord (Buddha) in prison and life is okay. most of my friends were born agains, but not all – a Nuwabian, if you know what that means, the Nation of Islam guy who taught me to read Arabic so I could study the Koran (in a jail where only religious materials are allowed for reading – i read the Bible in English and Spanish, my Vision of Buddhism til it fell apart and I gave it to fellow seeker). Meditating is better than sitting in a cell, no joke, if you know how. or praying. whatever. when they put me in the genpop at first, the nigga who let me in his room (cause you don’t have a room given – it’s certain somebody is already there) cause he was trying to quit the violence and the gang got stabbed – i walked though a puddle of his blood while being marched to breakfast one morning, i’m not kidding at all. i gave him my padlock to take the wire out to be a pick, but the locker didn’t work anyway – he kept my shit safe. when i got out i sent all the gamers tons of printed out old modules, etc – you can buy game stuff in prison, there’s a catalog that accepts books of stamps as payment, but i know what’s good and it’s in a letter, a lot easier. i owe a lot more than that.
Staph infections, scabies, lice, humiliation, dehumanization on several levels, 24/7 psychological torment, thousands of men with the emotional equivalent of a 12 year old sociopath...
Those are just a few reasons the homeless don't start a crime wave. Free food, shelter, medicine and education are all offered in prison, but the darn gang raping ruins everything.
prison is funny. see, after all, i *am* stone cold tantric, and locking me in a cell and feeding me like a monk doesn’t really impair my path to spiritual harmony, even if i am locked up with some dumbass bitches.
Glad you came out a better person. I've been felony free since 2003, so apparently for some people the system does work in a screwed up way. I never had a Zen moment but I got better at drawing and reading. I finished a few books all the way to the end. They would let us order books if they were sent directly from the publisher. In my experience, prisons are for breaking the hearts of Mothers. That is ultimately the worst part of the punishment in my opinion. I'm not a criminal and I'm not proud of having done what I did, which btw was nonviolent.
Chan Buddhist monk who lived in the Southern Song. He purportedly possessed supernatural powers, which he used to help the poor and stand up to injustice. However, he was also known for his wild and eccentric behaviour, and for violating Buddhist monastic rules by consuming alcohol and meat.
I can't judge you. I was going to go into how businesses are pyramids and stealing from the bottom of them raises prices and actually benefits the assholes on top. I'm not going to do that because I'd be a hypocrite. I've done a copper heist here and there since becoming Christian but not much else. Before I started practicing Christianity I stole and lied and treated people like objects. Christianity didn't cure me of that stuff, it just happened that the personal changes I made happened at the same time. It may have helped that my brain was changing from the faith. I've experienced a couple times the head change that comes with a Religion. Christianity is pretty uncut brain candy and it has a lot of objects, sounds, words and whatnot. There are levels of doubt that seem fractal and they just never stop cascading, but that seems to be part of the balance in it. There is also of course the fact that Jesus was probably just a human, if he even lived at all. In my world that doesn't matter because I'm realistic like that.
Back to prison... Fear of prison is what keeps us from picking from the top, right? Don't tell me you wouldn't totally loot a mall and burn it if the opportunity arose and you knew you wouldn't get caught. Prison and my Mom are the things I think about when I see the thousands of things I could do to get ahead. I guess you went to a Southern State prison. Those can get rather crowded and stuffy. No tobacco and limited commissary items. White power and rotten teeth. Lots of people talking about how to cook meth. You had some recipes memorized by the time you left. I've never done meth and don't ever plan on cooking it but even I knew methcathinone synthesis by the time I left. I took a lot of Seroquel and convinced the infirmary docs to take me to a huge dose. I slept away so much time. The medicine made me gain a lot of weight and it took years to do enough drugs to lose it but I succeeded.