DrZoidberg
Contributor
Prisons do deter crime, despite bullshit claims to the contrary.
The problem is that claims that prisons don't deter crime are only ever supported with data that has no bearing on whether the threat of prison deters most people from doing things that would land them in prison. Instead, the data offered is data on whether the kind of people that wind up in prison the first time are deterred by their prison experience from winding up back in prison. Those are completely separate questions with different answers.
Most criminal acts are never prosecuted, so most people that wind up in prison are chronic repeat offenders before they ever get arrested the first time.
IOW, they are non-representative sub-populations that are disproportionately prone towards the criminal acts that land one in prison. This proneness is for all sorts of reasons, including economic desperation, so don't interpret it as some sort of genetic criminality thesis. Also, they are aware of prison and its unpleasantness, and yet engaged in the crimes anyway. Thus, by definition, their proneness toward the criminal acts is so strong that it already overrode the known threat of something so awful and life ruining as prison. Thus, it is no wonder that this non-representative sub-population winds up back in prison so often, and that being in prison (like the threat of prison) is not a sufficient disincentive to avoid the criminal actions. But that tells us nothing about the impact of prisons on keeping people from doing things than land one in prison in the first place.
Is the threat of prisons is partly responsible for why the people that don't ever wind up there don't wind up there? The can be no direct evidence on this question, so we must look to the indirect evidence and to empirically established principles of human behavior and decision making. All of that evidence suggest an answer of a resounding "Yes, the threat of prison reduces behavior that would land people there."
Ultimately, it comes down to whether you accept that most people will try to avoid outcomes that they find unpleasant, and that most people find the perceived features of prison to be unpleasant. The notion that threat of prison does not deter crime requires the absurd position of rejecting one or both of these undeniable assumptions.
The indirect evidence comes in many forms. One is simply the mountain of experimental evidence that human beings (like all animals) modify their behavior to avoid unpleasant stimuli, combined with the evidence indicating that most people find the idea of being confined to a cage, separated from friends, and being under constant physical threat to be unpleasant. In addition, their is the evidence that humans transfer their negative emotional reactions between associated stimuli, such that this avoidance need not even be a deliberated pragmatic decision, but rather the action associated with prison will in itself automatically trigger negative feelings the prompt avoidance even without any conscious thoughts of consequences.
Other indirect evidence is in the form of looking at patterns of everyday behavior in which people clearly avoid actions associated with unpleasant consequences. These range from kids learning not to touch a hot stove or do other things likely to harm them to the basic process of socialization in which non-stop subtle rewards and punishments in social interactions shape behavior.
A third form of indirect evidence is looking at differences in the frequencies of behaviors that are similar in moral and direct consequences but differ mostly just in terms of whether they could land you in prison. A great example is the frequency of alcohol use versus marijuana use. IF anything alcohol has more negative direct consequences and more association with immoral actions under the influence. Yet, many times more people regularly use alcohol than marijuana, and that is largely because they fear the legal consequences, including prison. The doubling of occasional pot smoking adults in the past decade is most plausibly due to the changes in its legal status and its reduces (though sadly not eliminated) association with consequences like prison. The fact that we shouldn't put pot smokers in prison is irrelevant to the issue.
Tying this all back into the OP question: Prisons are a way of making the consequences of criminal acts so unpleasant that most people don't wind up in prison partly because they are avoiding prison by avoiding or at least limiting their criminal actions that would land them in prison. Ideally, we'd want a system of criminal consequences that simultaneously serves this function of deterring the majority, while also rehabilitating those that were so motivated toward the criminal action that the threat of the consequence was not enough and they wound up in prison. That is an unlikely ideal, since almost anything that would make prison more rehabilitative would either make it less of an unpleasant deterrent to the general population who currently avoids prison due to its unpleasantness.
That said, some modest changes could have a big impact. Non-violent criminals should be kept completely separate from violent criminals, and first-timers should be separate from repeat offenders. Cameras with audio should be in every crevice including showers and bathrooms and reviewed by outside parties. Claims of privacy violation are nonsense. Prisoners already have to shower and shit right in front of others, which is more emotionally invasive than someone screening the videos for criminal or even just threatening behavior, especially since modern tech can automatically blur all faces and only unblur them when a there is a need to identify someone.
We know prisons don't deter since we've been playing around with harshness of sentences. We know that the length of a prison sentence has zero impact on behaviour. No matter how we fiddle around with the number nothing happens to the crime rate. Super easy to study and has been. We also know that the unpleasantness of a prison stay also has zero on criminal behaviour. Doesn't that prove you wrong? The American three strikes and you're out hasn't worked according to plan, has it?
I think most people follow the law because the law is mostly designed around what most people do. Most people are decent. Anecdotally I don't know what punishments I can expect for any laws I break. I haven't the merest notion of how much I should feel deterred. I have broken the law on numerous occasions. Nothing serious. But it has happened. I did so even though I hadn't a clue what might happen if I got caught. I'm not saying everybody is like me. But it does make me question the efficacy of deterrence.