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What happens to the republican party on Nov 9

Well, first, they lose. Second, party bigwigs make new rules to make it harder to be taken over by an "outsider." And third, they don't actually understand the problem, so more dumbasses run in the future.
 
snoiduspoitus said:
I was always under the impression that we had a two party system. I'm not sure going forward.
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Yea, I think that the republicans will split. I'm seeing about 2/3 of them remaining pissed that all the reps didn't rally around Trump. It will be a coalition of bitter white people and religious nuts.
 
Perform an "autopsy" of the election results, list all the different ways they can change, then ignore it all and double-down on the crazy?

Oh, wait...they already did that.

The thing is, their loss - while significant - will not be a total one. They've got a chance of holding onto the Senate. There's little chance they'll lose the House. When the dust clears at the state level, they'll still hold most of the Governor's mansions and state legislatures. There's an old saying that the fish rots from the head down. Well the GOP is one big fucking fish.

Let's also not forget that the mid-terms are now just a little over 2 years away. In 2008 Obama delivered a shellacking to the Republicans. Two years later the GOP took back the House. The Democrats held the Senate, but barely. In 2014 they lost that, too. If the pattern holds (that of the incumbent party losing mid terms), then the Republicans are likely to hold onto the House in 2018, and recoup whatever Senate losses they endure this year.
 
They still are powerful in the Red states. The party thus becomes a coalition of state parties vying for power among themselves for control of the party. So you will have tea party vs "mainstream" vs evangelical factions trying to play their strong state factions into becoming the arbiters of what the GOP stands for. Then looking for candidates that can make it on the national stage as leaders. This slow motion internecine warfare will take years to shake out. I don't see any real strong candidates to lead the GOP. Not Cruz, not Rand Paul, not Brownback or Ryan. There are no Reagans on the horizon. The GOP will want somebody whose force of personality will cut across factional lines, but I have no idea who might play that role. The GOP runs Texas, but there are no personalities here that can be a nationwide leader. No old retreads, Newt, Palin, the crazies can do it. Romney? Rubio? Huntsman?
 
I don't see the party chnging much, except that they might change the rules for the next primaries to make it harder for outsiders. If I recall correctly, when Romney lost in 2012 there was a lot of soul searching in the party (it appeared that way anyway) as to what went wrong, and the results were mild at best. This time, the failure is easier to see as a shortcoming of the candidate, rather than that of the party, because Trump is so far out there.
 
They need the right combination to take the white house in 2020. They'll find a black woman to run for Prez, married to a Latino husband with adopted Mormon children.

You heard it here first.
 
Harry_Bosch said:
snoiduspoitus said:
I was always under the impression that we had a two party system. I'm not sure going forward.
Click to expand...

Yea, I think that the republicans will split. I'm seeing about 2/3 of them remaining pissed that all the reps didn't rally around Trump. It will be a coalition of bitter white people and religious nuts.
Click to expand...

No way they split - this election is the writing on the wall that nobody cares about small government conservatism. If they jettison the culture warriors they can't get elected, nor can the culture warriors alone. I think Don2 is on the mark, they'll consolidate, rework the party system to prevent outsiders, and with a heavy setback try to woo the religious Latino vote again (their only long term prospect at viability).

The big [circus] tent will live on.
 
The first thing they do is assign blame. After careful and detailed analysis, their objective and unbiased conclusion will be that it's because of those other guys. Those other guys will need to change but they themselves have been doing everything great and should continue as is.

There are three main factions in the GOP. For lack of better terms, they are the Trumpettes, the Christians and the Establishment. The Trumpettes will say that the reason they lost us because of the lack of support from the other factions and how they deliberately sabotaged Trump and gave Clinton the presidency just so they wouldn't have to give up their privileged positions within the Party. The Christians will say that the Party has ceded its moral leadership and needs a Ted Cruz type in charge to bring the Party back to its traditional base in order to regain support. The Establishment will say it's because the other guys are all just fucking crazy and if they could remember to STFU and be happy with a few crumbs thrown their way while the sane folk focus on an economic argument, then the Party would be back.

In order to change, one must first acknowledge errors I can't see anyone in the GOP acknowledging any errors except those committed by other groups. They all feel that their wing of the Party hasn't been given its fair shot yet and the most important thing which can be done is to make sure that it wins the internecine struggle and gets everyone lined up behind them so that they can put forward a candidate to lose to Clinton in 2020.
 
Tom Sawyer said:
The first thing they do is assign blame. After careful and detailed analysis, their objective and unbiased conclusion will be that it's because of those other guys. Those other guys will need to change but they themselves have been doing everything great and should continue as is.

In order to change, one must first acknowledge errors I can't see anyone in the GOP acknowledging any errors except those committed by other groups. They all feel that their wing of the Party hasn't been given its fair shot yet and the most important thing which can be done is to make sure that it wins the internecine struggle and gets everyone lined up behind them so that they can put forward a candidate to lose to Clinton in 2020.
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I totally agree. The Republicans haven't shown any ability to do anything about their losses other than to blame everyone else. The possibility that their message is unappealing to most Americans never seems to stick with them.

It's not just stubborness though. They face a real dilemma in deciding what parts of their platform to abandon. Give up on helping the rich at the expense of the poor and they lose their donor class. Give up on discriminating against homosexuals and they lose the evangelicals. Give up on xenophobia and they lose the Trump supporters.

For them to remain a viable national party, eventually they will have to make a choice and make a play for voters on the edge of Democratic party. Or eventually they'll collapse and split. But they can put that decision off for a long time. As others have noted, they are still quite strong on the state and local level, and they have gerrymandered their way into controlling the House.

If Hillary wins, the Republicans in the Sentate will filabuster everything until the Democrats get sick of it and take that toy away. The Republicans will then declare the Democrats horrible villians for insisting that the side with the most votes should win votes and fund raise off that. The Republicans in the House can refuse to raise the debt ceiling until Hillary caves or ignores that stupid rule, throwing the issue into the Supreme Court.

Meanwhile, we've had pretty steady economic growth for 8 years under Obama. But the economy is cyclical and we're due at least a small recession. It will probably hit sometime in the next two years. Hillary will get blamed for it and Democrats don't vote in numbers in the midterms. The Republicans will get the Senate back and, now without a filabuster to stop them, shove awful things to Hillary's desk that she has to veto. The Republicans will amuse themselves by blocking all Hillary appointments for the next two years. For the next presidential election, they'll run some white guy. He'll lose in a close election because the population growth just isn't going the Republican's way.

Repeat for two more decades until the Republicans start losing everywhere as the population shifts and forces them to actually change.
 
The republican base is not likely to change. But the question is the money people. They invest a lot in politics to get their tax cuts and de-regulation. If the party is seen as a bunch of crazies, who will only vote for people who have no chance to win a national election, they are going to start taking their money elsewhere.

What I see is the leadership of the party has two choices. 1 - dump the racists, conspiracy theorists, etc. and put forth more reality based candidates. This will cost them much of their base, and will take a long time to build up enough support to be as influential again. 2 - double down on the strategy they have. This will be a slow death of the party, as various minorities groups they bash become a larger part of the population, and their aging supporters die off.
 
Jason Harvestdancer said:
Deepak said:
No way they split - this election is the writing on the wall that nobody cares about small government conservatism.
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What is this small government conservatism I hear people talking about? No proposals coming from the GOP seem to reflect any reduction in the scope or role of government.
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You know, no regulations on multinational corporations except to stifle competition, voter suppression to shrink the number of voters, citizen deportation, no diversity in thought or religion, and guns are of course never to be regulated in anyway, except to protect the manufacturers!
 
Cheerful Charlie said:
They still are powerful in the Red states. The party thus becomes a coalition of state parties vying for power among themselves for control of the party. So you will have tea party vs "mainstream" vs evangelical factions trying to play their strong state factions into becoming the arbiters of what the GOP stands for. Then looking for candidates that can make it on the national stage as leaders. This slow motion internecine warfare will take years to shake out. I don't see any real strong candidates to lead the GOP. Not Cruz, not Rand Paul, not Brownback or Ryan. There are no Reagans on the horizon. The GOP will want somebody whose force of personality will cut across factional lines, but I have no idea who might play that role. The GOP runs Texas, but there are no personalities here that can be a nationwide leader. No old retreads, Newt, Palin, the crazies can do it. Romney? Rubio? Huntsman?
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I think this is pretty insightful, but I don't see anyone that can unite everyone. Unfortunately for the Republicans, there is one person who really understands how the GOP got here, and how they could have avoided it. He tired to warn them back in 2010:

“We’ve got to close the gap a little bit between the rhetoric and the reality,” he pleaded. “I’m not suggesting that we’re going to agree on everything, whether it’s on health care or energy or what have you, but if the way these issues are being presented by the Republicans is that this is some wild-eyed plot to impose huge government in every aspect of our lives, what happens is you guys then don’t have a lot of room to negotiate with me. I mean, the fact of the matter is, is that many of you, if you voted with the administration on something, are politically vulnerable in your own base, in your own party. You’ve given yourselves very little room to work in a bipartisan fashion because what you’ve been telling your constituents is, this guy is doing all kinds of crazy stuff that’s going to destroy America.”
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Now, they don't like being lectured, but perhaps they should have listened.
 
there is a lot of overlap among these three groups, so much in fact I wonder how you define the boundaries?

and there is nothing new in the rhetoric of DJT. Everything he says (outside of shooting HRC, grabbing pussies, and lusting after his daughter, you know, things like that) has been said before, has been written into the party platform.

There is nothing new here. trump is the end of result of what the GOP stands for.

The party is a snake. And snakes do snakey things because it is their nature. Know that before you take it in or are taken in by it.
 
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