What will the world be like when global population goes in decline?

[DBT]

The only question is: at what point does the balance tip from sustainability to sustainability?

Error correction.

The sentence should have been;

The only question is: at what point does the balance tip from sustainability to unsustainability?

It's been a long hard day.

If we look at Jarred Diamonds Collapse, and compare ecological disasters we see that the pattern for humans is to over-exploit their environment and their society collapses. As collapse is imminent preserving old traditions become very important to people. People start exploiting their environment even more systematically speeding up the collapse. I think today´s political situation is ample proof of that happening. Politically it seems impossible today to get everybody pulling in the same direction.

I think we´ll be cheerfully chugging along until we get hit by a catastrophic event killing most humans, and once that initial trauma has passed we´ll be back to business as usual. Whether it´s environmental collapse, Ebola, a gigantic meteor or something completely new, is no no consequence. And we know these catastrophic events do occur from time to time. It´d be stupid to think it´s stopped happening. And it´s not like it won´t happen. If it won´t be one thing it´ll be something else. Something will get us in the end. But I doubt humanity will die out from these events. We´re the mammalian equivalent of a cockroach. As a species we´ll always pull through IMHO.

Prediction: even after a catastrophic event killing most humans people will still be as Christian as ever telling us that god loves us and in general making a fool of themselves in forums.

I think think that's a reasonable summary.

 

[DrZoidberg]

If we look at Jarred Diamonds Collapse, and compare ecological disasters we see that the pattern for humans is to over-exploit their environment and their society collapses. As collapse is imminent preserving old traditions become very important to people. People start exploiting their environment even more systematically speeding up the collapse. I think today´s political situation is ample proof of that happening. Politically it seems impossible today to get everybody pulling in the same direction.

I think we´ll be cheerfully chugging along until we get hit by a catastrophic event killing most humans, and once that initial trauma has passed we´ll be back to business as usual. Whether it´s environmental collapse, Ebola, a gigantic meteor or something completely new, is no no consequence. And we know these catastrophic events do occur from time to time. It´d be stupid to think it´s stopped happening. And it´s not like it won´t happen. If it won´t be one thing it´ll be something else. Something will get us in the end. But I doubt humanity will die out from these events. We´re the mammalian equivalent of a cockroach. As a species we´ll always pull through IMHO.

Prediction: even after a catastrophic event killing most humans people will still be as Christian as ever telling us that god loves us and in general making a fool of themselves in forums.

How many resource driven collapses have occurred in societies with freely available, safe, effective, female controlled contraception?

The pill is a huge game-changer. Its effects are only now becoming apparent.

The population panic of the 60s and 70s was obsolete even as it began.

But the baby-boomers who started it are unable to let it go, and have infected their children with the same needless worry.

The pill won´t protect us from Ebola 2.0 or a massive comet. Statistically a comet will hit Earth once every 300 000 years wiping out 1/3 to 2/3 of all life on Earth. A rough estimate. No vagina will stop that, no matter how impregnable it is.

 

[bilby]

How many resource driven collapses have occurred in societies with freely available, safe, effective, female controlled contraception?

The pill is a huge game-changer. Its effects are only now becoming apparent.

The population panic of the 60s and 70s was obsolete even as it began.

But the baby-boomers who started it are unable to let it go, and have infected their children with the same needless worry.

The pill won´t protect us from Ebola 2.0 or a massive comet. Statistically a comet will hit Earth once every 300 000 years wiping out 1/3 to 2/3 of all life on Earth. A rough estimate. No vagina will stop that, no matter how impregnable it is.

True enough, but then, our political situation won't cause us to be hit by a massive comet either.

Indeed it would require a significant shift in our political situation for us to have any control at all over space debris.

 

[DBT]

Indeed it would require a significant shift in our political situation for us to have any control at all over space debris.

It will take a significant shift in our political situation to even get us out of our current economic, political and environmental problems.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Obviously we can live sustainably, it is possible...if we do not exceed the carrying capacity of our environment.

As our environment is finite, if growth continues indefinitely, our population numbers/economic activity places ever increasing demands on our finite resources that it must necessarily exceed carrying capacity (being finite).

The only question is: at what point does the balance tip from sustainability to sustainability?

If we look at Jarred Diamonds Collapse, and compare ecological disasters we see that the pattern for humans is to over-exploit their environment and their society collapses. As collapse is imminent preserving old traditions become very important to people. People start exploiting their environment even more systematically speeding up the collapse. I think today´s political situation is ample proof of that happening. Politically it seems impossible today to get everybody pulling in the same direction.

I think we´ll be cheerfully chugging along until we get hit by a catastrophic event killing most humans, and once that initial trauma has passed we´ll be back to business as usual. Whether it´s environmental collapse, Ebola, a gigantic meteor or something completely new, is no no consequence. And we know these catastrophic events do occur from time to time. It´d be stupid to think it´s stopped happening. And it´s not like it won´t happen. If it won´t be one thing it´ll be something else. Something will get us in the end. But I doubt humanity will die out from these events. We´re the mammalian equivalent of a cockroach. As a species we´ll always pull through IMHO.

Prediction: even after a catastrophic event killing most humans people will still be as Christian as ever telling us that god loves us and in general making a fool of themselves in forums.

If something gets most humans society can't recover. Too many resources will be too hard to extract, we would have to rebuild in a world with no oil, little coal and only what metals we could scavenge from the ruins. (And note that metal has the habit of in time corroding away.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

How many resource driven collapses have occurred in societies with freely available, safe, effective, female controlled contraception?

The pill is a huge game-changer. Its effects are only now becoming apparent.

The population panic of the 60s and 70s was obsolete even as it began.

But the baby-boomers who started it are unable to let it go, and have infected their children with the same needless worry.

While I agree the pill is a game-changer that only puts off the day of reckoning, it doesn't avoid it. So long as we are consuming resources we can't replace we are heading for trouble. In the really big picture collapse is inevitable--the universe will run down. On a more practical timescale the only solutions are either 100% recycling (which is all but impossible) or finding enough stuff. (Either industrial-scale transmutation, something that can only be done in space as the waste heat would wreck our ecosystem; or else asteroid mining. Note that both of these answers require a major presence in space.)

 

[repoman]

We are well into overshoot and the non-fossil fuel (renewable energy/fertilizer only)carrying capacity of the earth has been degraded by the earth carrying so many extra people for so long.

Some estimate that the world reached steady state overpopulation about 150 years ago.

I think big cities might be like in Omega Man.

 

[DrZoidberg]

We are well into overshoot and the non-fossil fuel (renewable energy/fertilizer only)carrying capacity of the earth has been degraded by the earth carrying so many extra people for so long.

Some estimate that the world reached steady state overpopulation about 150 years ago.

I think big cities might be like in Omega Man.

People are so hysterical when it comes to energy. Sure oil is the most efficient energy source to date. But we´ll never run out of Thorium. If all oil dries up and we burn through our uranium we´ll all be driving electric cars powered by thorium fission. Sure... it´s not as good as oil or uranium. But is almost as good. In fact it´s so good that there is already countries and companies building thorium plants they hope will be able to compete with uranium plants. The technology is tried and tested.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

We are well into overshoot and the non-fossil fuel (renewable energy/fertilizer only)carrying capacity of the earth has been degraded by the earth carrying so many extra people for so long.

Some estimate that the world reached steady state overpopulation about 150 years ago.

I think big cities might be like in Omega Man.

People are so hysterical when it comes to energy. Sure oil is the most efficient energy source to date. But we´ll never run out of Thorium. If all oil dries up and we burn through our uranium we´ll all be driving electric cars powered by thorium fission. Sure... it´s not as good as oil or uranium. But is almost as good. In fact it´s so good that there is already countries and companies building thorium plants they hope will be able to compete with uranium plants. The technology is tried and tested.

It also has the advantage that a thorium power system is inherently incapable of producing a China-syndrome accident, nor could it possibly Chernobyl no matter how badly mishandled. Fukushima is bad as it can get--and proper containment vessels would have pretty much eliminated the mess from Fukushima.