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When will Trump hit his “low water” mark?

Elixir

Elixir

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I’ll go first;
Trump’s approval rating currently sits at 40-42 percent.

Pew Research Center (April 23, 2025): 40% of Americans approve of Trump’s job performance, while 59% disapprove.
• New York Times/Siena College (April 25, 2025): 42% approve, 54% disapprove.
• Economist/YouGov (April 22, 2025): 41% approve, 54% disapprove.
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It is safe (IMO) to assume that it’s still headed down. I predict that as the pain mounts, empty shelves and a stalled economy will take a toll on his remaining approval, driving it into the thirties by November. There will be a scramble to rehabilitate his approval rating next year, in order to support Republicans Congressional candidates in 2026.
I expect Trump to hit his lowest approval around March 2026.
At that point he will start doing things like sending out checks bearing his signature to voters, dropping some tariffs and doing other things to fuel a bump in the stock market. Russian propaganda will rise to the level of a presidential election, vilifying Dem candidates, and praising Trump’s austerity program. By 11/2026 I expect Trump’s approval rating to be back in the black according to Trump, and recent improvements will become evidence that “he was right all along“.

The 2026 Congressional races will leave the Senate in GQP hands while Dems gain a narrow majority in the House.
By late 2027 the main GOP thrust will be to blame the Dem House for refusing to fund the highly successful Trump agenda, which would have averted the recession/depression of ‘27/‘28.

Just a guess. What’s yours?
 
Wow -- there's a lot in the OP that's plausible. Well done! A few random additions that I would make:
>I can only hope that the backtracking he'll be forced to do will convince even his most heartless advisors that they better not cut Social Security. But if they emerge from 2026 without losing the House or Senate, the knives will come out.
>We have a year and a half -- and really, more like 20 months -- in which there will be very little leverage for anti-Trump entities. Impeachment is a dead letter and SCOTUS has redefined the Presidency as a virtual monarchy. Trump feels invincible -- his ego has been put on the equivalent of a training diet, testosterone, and crystal meth. He thinks of himself as a cosmic gambler, a high stakes player with genius instincts, which is the same thing as massive hubris.
> The real wild card for the nation and for our criminal-in-chief is the advance of time. He's a moron with acting chops, and his lack of coherence has getting noticeably worse since, say, the start of campaign 2024. He will increasingly shy away from uncontrolled appearances. Expect more sit-downs with Glenn Beck-type interviewers, and even in those situations, he is astonishingly stupid and delusional. Age is going to bring him down, but his parents' genes may prolong the suspense unbearably. But it's coming. When he talks about 2028, it's a sign of how disconnected he is from reality. By 2028, he's going to look like an ugli fruit with a wisp of moldy hay glued to the top, and he'll be babbling about Freddie Krueger and Joe Namath's baby maker.
> And history will almost certainly intrude. Pandemic? We already know the grade of idiots who will be directing us straight into the mass graves. Some sort of collaboration among the European and Asian despots? Just imagine if Iran strikes Israel while Putin unleashes tactical nukes on Ukraine and China invades Taiwan. North Korea could get into that mix. We have so isolated ourselves from our former allies that Trump would most likely let God sort out the mess.
 
It is those darn "yippy" Americans. (remember when conservatives got upset on the religion and guns line from Obama?)

He thinks this is bad, wait till summer and back to school shopping if Trump doesn't stop this ridiculous tariff war with China. He already had to slash the tariffs on TVs, phones.
 
Jimmy Higgins said:
It is those darn "yippy" Americans. (remember when conservatives got upset on the religion and guns line from Obama?)

He thinks this is bad, wait till summer and back to school shopping if Trump doesn't stop this ridiculous tariff war with China. He already had to slash the tariffs on TVs, phones.
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To paraphrase a famous poet “Trump has miles to hit low water before he rests”.
 
All hopeful signs, but I am a old man man and a pessimist, and have seen enough of life to think he might do long term damage beyond anyone's ability to repair it, trash the nation, and the world, and get away with it. For a while, but a while is all most of us have. What view our remaining progeny have on our actions will be beyond our power to control. The End Timers will have their day, unnecessary, but they will probably applaud it. Not that he will care, if he can end his last few days feeling vindicated.
 
ideologyhunter said:
if they emerge from 2026 without losing the House or Senate, the knives will come out.
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QFT That is definitely the point of no return if the fascists manage to keep both houses.
Another two years and it really will be 1984.
ideologyhunter said:
By 2028, he's going to look MORE like an ugli fruit with a wisp of moldy hay glued to the top,
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FIFY
 
As for hitting "low water", there's no rock bottom for our National Catastrophe. As Canadians head to the polls, he actually posted on Truth Social that Canadians should vote for him so that they can become our 'cherished' 51st state.
Okay, someone tell me, because I don't get it. Why the endless antagonizing of Canadians? Usually with #45/47 you can suss out the profit he's seeking. This situation isn't clear to me. What Canadian will want to buy anything that comes from the U.S., ever? The disrespect he launches at them -- he's basically spitting a big phlegmy mouthful in Canada's face, over and over -- will have an impact over generations. America, because of him, is the nastiest country imaginable.
The only payoff I can guess is the cheap 'toughness' of being a bully and lout. Just another catastrophic piece of damage he will leave in his wake. Trump voters, are you good with this?
 
I think rock bottom is around 25-30% that will never stop believing no matter the reality before them. He will get around that territory in the fall, when people start noticing that things haven't gotten better after all the deportations. Early next year even republicans will be joining protests against him.
 
marc said:
I think rock bottom is around 25-30% that will never stop believing no matter the reality before them. He will get around that territory in the fall, when people start noticing that things haven't gotten better after all the deportations. Early next year even republicans will be joining protests against him.
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The question is how low can his support go before he is forced by the public pushback to give up his authoritarianism
 
lostone said:
The question is how low can his support go before he is forced by the public pushback to give up his authoritarianism
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Forced by the public pushback?
No chance. If he feels public pressure it is assumed that it comes from The Enemy and he will use every tool of authoritarianism to kill The Enemy.

I suspect that the only hope is that there’s a von Stauffenberg somewhere on the inside…
 
marc said:
when people start noticing that things haven't gotten better after all the deportations
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He will TELL them they feel better and like a miracle, they will feel better.
I think that applies to about half of his support.
marc said:
I think rock bottom is around 25-30% that will never stop believing no matter the reality before them.
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Yeah, those are the guys.
 
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