Which Vice Presidents Succeeded Their Presidents?

[lpetrich]

I was led to consider this issue because I wanted to consider who might possibly succeed Joe Biden. He may quit in 2024 or he may run again. If he gets re-elected, he will have to quit in 2028. An obvious candidate is his Vice-President, Kamala Harris. So I decided to find the success rate of VP's succeeding their Presidents.

In The President-Select? I noted 8 VP's who succeeded their Presidents when they died or resigned. I've added dates of succession and also whether they succeeded or failed in getting elected to a term after their succession.

1. 1841 William Henry Harrison - died - John Tyler (failed)
2. 1850 Zachary Taylor - died - Millard Fillmore (failed)
3. 1865 Abraham Lincoln - killed - Andrew Johnson (failed)
4. 1881 James Garfield - killed - Chester A. Arthur (failed)
5. 1901 William McKinley - killed - Theodore Roosevelt (succeeded)
6. 1923 Warren Harding - died - Calvin Coolidge (succeeded)
7. 1945 Franklin Delano Roosevelt - died - Harry Truman (succeeded)
8. 1963 John Fitzgerald Kennedy - killed - Lyndon Baines Johnson (succeeded)
9. 1973 Richard Nixon - resigned - Gerald Ford (failed)

"Died" as opposed to "killed" is dying of natural causes.

I'll add those VP's who tried to become elected successors.

• 1796 John Adams (George Washington)
• 1800 Thomas Jefferson (John Adams)
• 1808 George Clinton (Thomas Jefferson) (failed)
• 1836 Martin Van Buren (Andrew Jackson)
• 1860 John C. Breckinridge (James Buchanan) (failed)
• 1908 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1916 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1920 Thomas W. Marshall (Woodrow Wilson) (failed)
• 1928 Charles G. Dawes (Calvin Coolidge) (failed)
• 1940 John Nance Garner (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1952 Alben W. Barkley (Harry Truman) (failed)
• 1960 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower) (failed)
• 1984 Walter Mondale (Jimmy Carter) (failed)
• 1988 George Bush I (Ronald Reagan)
• 2000 Al Gore (Bill Clinton) (failed)
• 2020 Joe Biden (Barack Obama)

A complication in the early years is that the original Vice President was whoever got the second most votes in the Presidential election. That was changed to the present system by the 12th Amendment, and the first election with it was in 1804.

So Kamala Harris's chances are rather middling.

 

[ideologyhunter]

Before her, there'll be Pence, on Jan.19.

 

[Bronzeage]

The practical problem for a Vice President trying to succeed a two term President, is having to run on someone else's record. He/she has the dilemma of having to own the previous President's policies as their own, or appear disloyal and duplicitous if they criticize any action that took place during the terms.

The biggest hurdle is voter fatigue. After eight years, the "anybody but..." factor is very high.

 

[jab]

I was led to consider this issue because I wanted to consider who might possibly succeed Joe Biden. He may quit in 2024 or he may run again. If he gets re-elected, he will have to quit in 2028. An obvious candidate is his Vice-President, Kamala Harris. So I decided to find the success rate of VP's succeeding their Presidents.

In The President-Select? I noted 8 VP's who succeeded their Presidents when they died or resigned. I've added dates of succession and also whether they succeeded or failed in getting elected to a term after their succession.

1. 1841 William Henry Harrison - died - John Tyler (failed)
2. 1850 Zachary Taylor - died - Millard Fillmore (failed)
3. 1865 Abraham Lincoln - killed - Andrew Johnson (failed)
4. 1881 James Garfield - killed - Chester A. Arthur (failed)
5. 1901 William McKinley - killed - Theodore Roosevelt (succeeded)
6. 1923 Warren Harding - died - Calvin Coolidge (succeeded)
7. 1945 Franklin Delano Roosevelt - died - Harry Truman (succeeded)
8. 1963 John Fitzgerald Kennedy - killed - Lyndon Baines Johnson (succeeded)
9. 1973 Richard Nixon - resigned - Gerald Ford (failed)

"Died" as opposed to "killed" is dying of natural causes.

I'll add those VP's who tried to become elected successors.

• 1796 John Adams (George Washington)
• 1800 Thomas Jefferson (John Adams)
• 1808 George Clinton (Thomas Jefferson) (failed)
• 1836 Martin Van Buren (Andrew Jackson)
• 1860 John C. Breckinridge (James Buchanan) (failed)
• 1908 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1916 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1920 Thomas W. Marshall (Woodrow Wilson) (failed)
• 1928 Charles G. Dawes (Calvin Coolidge) (failed)
• 1940 John Nance Garner (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) (failed)
• 1952 Alben W. Barkley (Harry Truman) (failed)
• 1960 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower) (failed)
• 1984 Walter Mondale (Jimmy Carter) (failed)
• 1988 George Bush I (Ronald Reagan)
• 2000 Al Gore (Bill Clinton) (failed)
• 2020 Joe Biden (Barack Obama)

A complication in the early years is that the original Vice President was whoever got the second most votes in the Presidential election. That was changed to the present system by the 12th Amendment, and the first election with it was in 1804.

So Kamala Harris's chances are rather middling.

Richard Nixon succeeded in 1968. Joe Biden didn't even get nominated by the Democrats in 2016.

 

[lpetrich]

Richard Nixon succeeded in 1968. Joe Biden didn't even get nominated by the Democrats in 2016.

You're right about that. I wasn't sure whether to mention him, since he tried to succeed Eisenhower and failed. So I think I should include him.

Fixed end of list:

• 1960 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower) (failed)
• 1968 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower)
• 1984 Walter Mondale (Jimmy Carter) (failed)
• 1988 George Bush I (Ronald Reagan)
• 2000 Al Gore (Bill Clinton) (failed)
• 2020 Joe Biden (Barack Obama)

 

[hyzer]

Richard Nixon succeeded in 1968.

Yes he did. And interestingly, after Harrison - Cleveland - Harrison, in which Harrison is the only 'president to succeed his successor', one could argue that Nixon also holds that title as Nixon's successor as Vice President was Johnson, who became president and Nixon succeeded Johnson as president.

 

[Elixir]

Before her, there'll be Pence, on Jan.19.

Do you think there will be an offer he can't refuse?
A two-day Presidency would probably be fatal to any subsequent political aspirations.
It would be funny if Trump resigned on the promise of a pardon, but the pardon paperwork was a day late...

 

[lpetrich]

I decided to check on how much support the would-be VP's got in their elections

• 1796: John Adams (George Washington) - EV 53.4%
• 1800: Thomas Jefferson (John Adams) - EV 61.4%
• 1808: George Clinton (Thomas Jefferson) - EV 32.4% (#2)
• 1836: Martin Van Buren (Andrew Jackson) - Conv 100% - PV 50.8% EV 57.8%
• 1844: John Tyler (William Henry Harrison) - Third party, dropped out
• 1852: Millard Fillmore (Zachary Taylor) - Conv 37.84% (#2)
• 1860 John C. Breckinridge (James Buchanan) - Conv (breakaway faction) 77% - PV 18.1% EV 23.8% (#2)
• 1865 Andrew Johnson (Abraham Lincoln) - Conv (small %, lost)
• 1881 Chester A. Arthur (James Garfield) - Conv 34% (#2) to 25% (#2)
• 1901 Theodore Roosevelt (William McKinley) - Conv 100% - 56.4%
• 1908 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) - Conv 4.08% (#5)
• 1916 Douglas W. Fairbanks (Theodore Roosevelt) - Prim PV 9.2% (#3) Conv 7.5% - 9.0% (#4)
• 1920 Thomas W. Marshall (Woodrow Wilson) - Conv (not formally nominated)
• 1924 Calvin Coolidge (Warren Harding) - Conv 96% - PV 54.0% EV 71.9%
• 1928 Charles G. Dawes (Calvin Coolidge) - Conv 0.4% (#8)
• 1940 John Nance Garner (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) - Conv 6.6% (#2)
• 1948 Harry Truman (Franklin Delano Roosevelt) - Conv 75.0%
• 1952 Alben W. Barkley (Harry Truman) - (didn't do very well in primaries / convention)
• 1960 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower) - Pri PV 86.63% - PV 49.55% EV 42.0% (#2)
• 1964 Lyndon Baines Johnson (John Fitzgerald Kennedy) - Pri 17.7% - PV 61.1% EV 90.3%
• 1968 Richard Nixon (Dwight Eisenhower) - Pri 37.54% (#2, won in conv) - PV 43.4% EV 55.9%
• 1976 Gerald Ford (Richard Nixon) - Pri 53.3% - PV 48.0% EV 44.7% (#2)
• 1984 Walter Mondale (Jimmy Carter) - Pri 38.3% - PV 40.6% EV 97.6% (#2)
• 1988 George Bush I (Ronald Reagan) - Pri 67.9% - PV 53.4% EV 79.3%
• 2000 Al Gore (Bill Clinton) - Pri 75.4% - PV 48.4% (#1) EV 49.5%
• 2020 Joe Biden (Barack Obama) - Pri 50.79% - PV 51.3% EV 56.6% (projected)

Primary results are for the total popular votes in them.

Looking at the recent Vice Presidents who advanced to the general election but lost, I find (Nixon 1960) 86.63%, (Ford) 53.3%, (Mondale) 38.3%, (Gore) 75.4% -- anything from barely winning to winning by a large margin.

Doing the same for those who won, I find (LBJ) 17.7%, (Nixon 1968) 37.54%, (Bush I) 67.9%, (Biden) 50.79% -- pretty much the same kind of distribution.