Tammuz
Senior Member
The present American strategy against IS is trying to contain them (it seems to work somewhat, as IS has not expanded since last summer, but neitherh have they lost any significant territory either). Some American voices call for a full-scale military intervention against IS, with American ground troops.
Some of the biggest proponents of a full-scale American intervention are IS themselves. But why would they want that? It is clear that they would lose militarily. In fact, they'd lose a conventional war against the far weaker militaries of Turkey or Iran. They only perform decently against the corrupt, poorly motivated militaries of Iraq and Syria, and against Kurdish and Shia militias.
IS couldn't really function as a guerilla group, because their stake at authority is being a caliphate. It's not much of a caliphate if you don't control any territory.
IS have been rather poor military strategists. Had they been smarter they would have left the Iraqi Kurds alone, thereby avoiding American air-bombing. They could then have focused on taking various (Arab Sunni) towns and cities in Iraq and Syria (and they would have taken Kobane had the Americans not intervened). After that and some consolidation, they could have prepared for the final countdown with either Assad or the Iraqi government. Luckily for the rest of the world they weren't so clever.
Some of the biggest proponents of a full-scale American intervention are IS themselves. But why would they want that? It is clear that they would lose militarily. In fact, they'd lose a conventional war against the far weaker militaries of Turkey or Iran. They only perform decently against the corrupt, poorly motivated militaries of Iraq and Syria, and against Kurdish and Shia militias.
IS couldn't really function as a guerilla group, because their stake at authority is being a caliphate. It's not much of a caliphate if you don't control any territory.
IS have been rather poor military strategists. Had they been smarter they would have left the Iraqi Kurds alone, thereby avoiding American air-bombing. They could then have focused on taking various (Arab Sunni) towns and cities in Iraq and Syria (and they would have taken Kobane had the Americans not intervened). After that and some consolidation, they could have prepared for the final countdown with either Assad or the Iraqi government. Luckily for the rest of the world they weren't so clever.