Good reasons/evidence for the benefits of cheap labor and cheap imports and free trade.
The OP makes two assertions without supporting them with evidence or even any reference to theory. The first is that "free trade" or "fair trade" with low wage countries benefits the US's overall economy from the lower prices for some consumer goods.
All the evidence supports this, but very little in economics can be PROVED with empirical data.
But theory proves it. Lower cost per se is automatically a benefit if the word "benefit" has any meaning. To demand proof that lower cost is beneficial is like demanding proof that less pain is beneficial. It's basic to all economic theory that any lower cost has to be good, all else being equal.
If you don't accept this as proof, and still demand proof that there's benefit to lower cost, it means you also demand proof that less pain is beneficial. No one can prove you wrong if you claim more pain is just as beneficial as less pain. No one can prove there's any "benefit" if "benefit" doesn't mean anything, which it doesn't if lower cost is not a benefit. "Cost" and "benefit" are by definition opposite. Lower cost means it was easier to produce, with less pain and difficulty and so therefore could be sold at a lower price.
Nor can any EMPIRICAL evidence prove benefit or harm if you reject the basic premise that lower cost is beneficial or that less pain is beneficial.
This could be easily proven by pointing out when the lower prices occurred and reduced the overall inflation rate for the US.
This did happen, in the period of about 1980 to 2020. However, this is not PROOF, because you cannot prove the causal connection of one factor to another, as you imagine. Rather, the numbers during this period are totally consistent with the theory that increased trade/cheap imports does help reduce the inflation rate, or keep down the price level. Economists do not have a good explanation, widely agreed, why the inflation rate has been so low these recent years. But since there was increased global trade/cheap imports during this same period, it's reasonable to conclude that this contributed to the lower inflation.
Yes, trade and cheap imports increased, and lower inflation followed.
1970/80 to 2020 is an unusual period of increased trade and reduced inflation rate, both happening gradually, with little ups and downs, throughout the period. There is no exact one point in this period where the increased trade or lower inflation rate suddenly began, though the trade increase is a little earlier. Trade increased gradually after 1950, more sharply from the 60s and 70s, with no one year as the starting point, and in the 80s the inflation rate declined noticeably and has recently been very low for a sustained period of years, which is unusual in history. This is what we'd expect if increased trade/cheap imports has a downward impact on the inflation rate. However, there are many other factors also which can influence the inflation rate, so this is not simplistic proof such as you're demanding and seldom is possible, for trying to establish any economic theory as fact.
Every time there is a lower price it helps to reduce the overall inflation rate (by a tiny increment), no matter where the lower price came from. The lower cost for electronic devices has occurred thousands or even millions of times. It's obvious that these have always helped reduce the inflation rate, as any lower price has to do. How can you possibly imagine that a lower price would not have its tiny influence on the overall price level?
Obviously each lower price has an impact which cannot be measured, just like the reduced oxygen consumption when one animal dies (and stops breathing) has to result in slightly less overall oxygen consumption worldwide, and yet the impact of this one death on the total oxygen consumption cannot be measured by measuring the total oxygen consumed to see if it decreased by a small degree. If all animals suddenly died at once -- quadrillions of them -- there might be a measurable decrease in the oxygen consumption.
Cause-and-effect: Resulting lower price can sometimes be identified, like when there's an unusually good harvest of a certain crop in one season. Or a disaster that disrupts production causes higher price. But it's seldom/never possible to prove that any one particular factor caused any one particular increase or decrease in price, because there are too many unknowns, or other factors. Rather, it's usually just a good guess that this or that factor caused it. Not proof, but a good guess.
Lower prices for a computer or printer today are probably due to the lower cost of production, compared to 20 or 40 years ago. But you could claim there were other factors, and it cannot be proved with 100% certainty that lower production cost caused lower price.
When I look at the data I don't see when this miracle from trade with low-wage countries happened.
It happened during the period 1980-2020, or 1990-2020.
https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/ (scroll down a few lines)
This chart shows the consistently lower inflation rates after 1990, as the new global trade was increasing. It's true that there were many low inflation years also in the 50s and 60s, but these were irregular and not a steady pattern such as we've had for the last 20 years or so of a consistent gradual process of low inflation along with the new trade agreements. There is no one point where the pattern begins, as trade was slowly increasing even earlier. But it began rising more sharply after 1960, before which the curve is much flatter.
View attachment 31806
There is no one time point when the increased trade happened. What we can see is the 2 factors of increased trade/cheap imports beginning somewhere in the 60s or 70s, and then the decreasing inflation rates during the 80s. Maybe the Reagan "free trade" deals were only part of a longer trend happening anyway, and any results from this would be gradual over the following decades.
Another factor is lower tariffs, which is not the same as increased imports. This would lead to increased cheap imports and thus increased trade, even though this isn't the same as increased dollars spent on imports. So the dollars spent shown in the graph does not adequately reflect the total increased imports, because they became cheaper.
This graph shows the decreasing tariffs:
View attachment 31808
These lower tariffs indicate more imports though not reflected so well in higher spending on imports (at lower prices). So the lower tariffs also are likely a cause of the lower prices or decreased inflation we see in the numbers from about 1990 and later.
Every example of a cheap import has to be a factor in bringing down the prices overall. How is it possible for a lower price of a TV or microwave to not cause some incremental decrease in prices? It could well be that the increased trade/cheap imports are the major cause of today's lower inflation rate.
There is no proof, but as the trade has increased over these many decades, the inflation rate in the U.S. has decreased after the 70s very gradually and has stayed low. This is a very gradual and steady process of downward inflation rate, or remaining low, up to the present time. So the empirical evidence is very consistent with the claim that the increased trade causes lower inflation or lower prices overall. But this isn't PROOF. There are too many other factors. And there are glitches driving the curves up or down at various points.
The second assertion that the OP leaves up to faith for support is that the miracle of the lower prices for consumers outweighs the damage done to the US economy from the lower wages paid to the people who lost their high paying manufacturing jobs . . .
It's automatically good, by definition, for ANY cost to come down, including labor cost. Manufacturing jobs are no longer the "high paying" jobs they used to be, because most of those workers now are more easily replaceable, not only by robots but also by cheap labor. There is nothing automatically desirable about "high paying manufacturing jobs" -- what's desirable is the production itself, the product produced and the cost savings to benefit consumers. If the workers can more easily be replaced, then those jobs are no longer so "high paying" nor should they be, because they have become less valuable, as those workers became more replaceable.
Again, you must face the economics, the harsh reality:
more replaceable = less valuable
If you can't face up to such reality as this, you will never understand the economy and your solutions are only Crybaby Economics solutions for the uncompetitive who are losing their value. What they need is to change and become more valuable, not to whine and demand pity and "good-paying jobs" as an unconditional entitlement promised to them by Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump and other crybaby-panderers.
. . . who lost their high paying manufacturing jobs and from the increase in the national debt required to service the higher trade deficit.
No, there is no requirement to "service" the trade deficit with anything.
This is Wackadoodle Economics preached by mostly Leftist demagogues (but some Rightists too) pandering to the crybabies who can't deal with the reality of COMPETITION in the economy.
There is no correlation between the higher trade deficit and the higher budget deficits. If there were any causality, it'd be the higher budget deficits which caused the later higher trade deficits, which began around 1970, AFTER the higher budget deficits had begun decades earlier.
No one can give any historical data or evidence or economic theory showing that a higher trade deficit causes a higher budget deficit. The last period of low budget deficit (or balanced budget) was in the late 1990s when the trade deficit had been soaring higher than ever and so should have caused the budget deficit to increase rather than decrease if there was any such causality.
I can't even begin to explain how a benefit that apparently doesn't exist can . . .
No, the benefit of lower prices (lower inflation) apparently does exist, according to the data, for recent years of low inflation.
. . . can compensate for the very real damage done to people who lose their jobs.
It compensates for it just as the benefits of automation compensate for the damage to workers laid off.
The benefits of more trade and cheap imports and cheap labor and more competition do exist, and are either shown by the facts or are totally consistent with all the data.
It's a basic premise of economics that more competition does benefit the economy, the consumers. And more cheap labor and more foreign imports = more competition. If you don't believe competition is good, then you must be opposed to antitrust law and anti-price-fixing law based on this premise.
Again, you can never prove exactly what factor caused any particular increase or decrease in inflation and other factors. But we have every indication that the increased trade has produced the expected lower prices (or reduced inflation) predicted, enjoyed by 330 million U.S. consumers.
The increase in the national debt is only mentioned because there are people here who put a great deal of stock in the national debt, but it is a placeholder that a high trade deficit does cost our economy.
More wackadoodle gibberish. No evidence, no data, no sound theory to show any such thing.
The higher national debt came first and possibly contributed to the higher trade deficit, if you demand A -> B empirical evidence/data. However, there's probably no causal relation between the two. A faltering economy could mean a decline in productivity, which in turn could cause a higher trade deficit, as the economy becomes less competitive globally. So a higher trade deficit in some cases might be a RESULT of something wrong in the economy, but not the CAUSE of anything wrong.
It is money that leaves our economy and causes increases in private debt or an increase . . .
More Snake-Oil Economics preaching that somehow if the money "leaves our economy" it's lost and we're all poorer as a result, which is delusional and paranoid. Billions of $$$$ cross over to other countries and cross into the U.S., and all of this is a net benefit to the buyers and sellers on both sides and to both countries, and any artificial interference with this flow only hurts us all. And it doesn't matter if the flow either direction should become higher or lower than in the opposite direction.
In the unlikely event of some extreme imbalance of the U.S. money flow, there are measures the Fed can take to offset this in order to counteract any possible inflation or deflation shock. But all the net movement of dollars either direction is so gradual and smooth that it's virtually impossible for anything to disrupt it, even though there are millions of changes going on regularly and no one can guarantee against sudden change happening.
. . . increases in private debt or an increase in the federal government budget deficit to replace the money that goes overseas as well as the increase in the national debt.
Pure wacko delusion. No debt needs to be increased to "replace the money that goes overseas." It's only the higher national debt which can cause some disruption or cost, not the trade deficit. This "money that goes overseas" is not any increase in debt which has to be paid back to someone. No one has ever given any explanation how the trade deficit does damage to the economy. That some jobs or factories are relocated is not a loss to the economy because these are done in order to improve the production = higher standard of living to the entire economy, just as automation improves the whole economy even though some businesses or jobs might become obsolete.
The failure to support these assertions dooms the OP before it even starts.
The assertion that lower prices are good for the economy is like the assertion that 2 + 2 = 4, or that pain is bad for people. Those who deny such assertions are the ones who must "support" their denial (that 2 + 2 = 4 etc.). How can letting people spend their money on something less costly not be good for the economy? And how can artificially obstructing them from the benefits of lower cost not do injury to them? How could anyone be made worse off by lower cost, or by less pain, all else being equal?
It reduces it to the level of a childlike argument like "free trade has to be good because free is good, right?"
The vast majority of the people here who have posted on this thread seem to have accepted these assertions. Can anyone tell me why?
They probably don't want to waste their time explaining to someone why free choice is good. If free is not good, then you would not even be able to post your whining Crybaby Economics arguments against other people having free choice. So obviously you are benefiting from free without anyone having to explain it to you. We assume the nation is better off because of abolishing slavery, to make people free. But there is no data to prove this. Probably the economy today is better as a result of this, but the benefits cannot be identified by data to show causal correlation to emancipation in the 1860s. But it's reasonable to assume there is net benefit to the country, because free = better or leads to better results for everyone.
(Btw, I have seen Ricardo's argument that comparative advantage supports "free trade" but that . . .
No, you have not seen that argument (not from Ricardo).
Why don't you first learn what Ricardo really said and quote it, and also how others then interpreted his terminology as a "free trade" argument. Or rather, why don't you just make your case against free choice without falsely attributing an argument to Ricardo which he didn't make.
. . . but that argument specifically rejects free trade when one partner in the trade has an absolute advantage over the other partner.
Maybe according to some Nutcase Economics wackos, but not anyone credible.
If you understand the argument yourself, then just give the argument, without pretending to have some authority figure to cite for it, which you do not have. Or, if you have some oddball interpretation from some later pseudo-economist crank, then give that. Though it's better to just give the argument itself without citing a guru authority for it and obsessing on the jargon ("comparative advantage" and "absolute advantage") for the sake of the jargon.
And lower wages is an absolute advantage.
Cheap labor is good for the economy -> higher production and lower prices = higher standard of living for all, regardless whether anyone has a "comparative" or an "absolute" advantage.
Just like volunteer work (ZERO wages) is good for the economy.
Besides Lumpenproletariat, the author of the OP, rejects the idea of the existence of comparative advantage, as do I, from previous discussions.)
But we're both full of shit according to Sri Quackananda who says comparative advantage is the Truth, in his Papal Bull on the Economy.