Will China Invade Taiwan?

[barbos]

It's not a rational move, but with huge egos, politics and sociopathic elements at work, who knows what can happen.

Xi is not Trump.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Come on, military invasion is stupid, Xi knows that.

Today, yes. But in, say, 7-8 years? Whether it's stupid then depends on the regional military capabilities of China vs. the US, and Xi's goals (an invasion would be immoral, but that's another matter). He's probably got more power domestically than anyone else since Mao. But even then, he's not done anything 'big' to stand out. Propaganda helps him a lot, but there is a limit to how much he can achieve in the long run in terms of domestic reputation on the basis of propaganda alone.

 

[DBT]

It's not a rational move, but with huge egos, politics and sociopathic elements at work, who knows what can happen.

Xi is not Trump.

Is Xi immune to egocentricity? Is he immune to the perception of his place in history, the greatness of China and the Party? A sense of great power has never corrupted those who hold it?

 

[barbos]

It's not a rational move, but with huge egos, politics and sociopathic elements at work, who knows what can happen.

Xi is not Trump.

Is Xi immune to egocentricity? Is he immune to the perception of his place in history, the greatness of China and the Party? A sense of great power has never corrupted those who hold it?

He is not dumb.

 

[DBT]

Is Xi immune to egocentricity? Is he immune to the perception of his place in history, the greatness of China and the Party? A sense of great power has never corrupted those who hold it?

He is not dumb.

Perhaps so, but being smart doesn't make him immune to mistakes or making bad decisions.

 

[bilby]

Is Xi immune to egocentricity? Is he immune to the perception of his place in history, the greatness of China and the Party? A sense of great power has never corrupted those who hold it?

He is not dumb.

Perhaps so, but being smart doesn't make him immune to mistakes or making bad decisions.

Wearing a tie that clashes with your pocket handkerchief is a bad decision.

Invading Taiwan, thereby triggering a nuclear war with the United States of America that reduces your nation to glow-in-the-dark rubble is a bit more than just poor judgment.

Xi would only invade Taiwan if he had solid reasons to be confident that the US would not respond, or that their response would be diplomatic censure rather than military action.

I don't imagine that the US State Department (or the foreign ministries of her allies) would be foolish enough to give the impression that their response would be so weak. And I can't see a clear path to a situation where they would do so within the next few decades.

 

[DBT]

Perhaps so, but being smart doesn't make him immune to mistakes or making bad decisions.

Wearing a tie that clashes with your pocket handkerchief is a bad decision.

Invading Taiwan, thereby triggering a nuclear war with the United States of America that reduces your nation to glow-in-the-dark rubble is a bit more than just poor judgment.

Xi would only invade Taiwan if he had solid reasons to be confident that the US would not respond, or that their response would be diplomatic censure rather than military action.

I don't imagine that the US State Department (or the foreign ministries of her allies) would be foolish enough to give the impression that their response would be so weak. And I can't see a clear path to a situation where they would do so within the next few decades.

Yes, indeed, I can't see it happening. At least not any time soon.

 

[zorq]

It's hard to tell if Chinese officials are sincerely serious about incidents like this or if it is just a mask that they wear so that they can maintain their "casus belli" or their illusory claim on Taiwan. I mean clearly the "One China" policy has been a non-inconsequential bargaining chip in China's foreign negotiations over the years which makes it "serious." But surely the sane Chinese people and significant Chinese Officials understand that Taiwan isn't part of China in any way shape or form... right?

Why do you think so?

Why do I think it's a mask? That Taiwan isn't part of China in any way, shape, or form? Well, Taiwan and China have two separate and distinct governments which have been governing(/ruling) their two separate and distinct territories since 1949. That's 72 years! Certainly SOME Chinese officials must recognize these facts and their implication on the separate and distinct nature of both states, even if it is only privately.

My impression is that Xi Jinping will very probably launch an invasion before he leaves office - probably in the second half of the decade.

The reason? It seems to me that the PLA is preparing seriously for that, and Xi wants to be seen as the greatest chairman ever, which he probably can't do without taking Taiwan and perhaps some of the South China Sea islands for good measure.

I agree that the desire to conquer Taiwan exists. But at the moment, and for the near future, the opportunity does not exist. Also note that this desire to finally "reunify" China doesn't change the fact that Taiwan is, right now, it's own separate country.

 

[bilby]

The government of Taiwan styles itself as the government of all of China, to the extent that their parliament contains representatives of constituencies on the mainland that those representatives haven't been able to visit for seven decades.

The reason why Taiwan hasn't invaded mainland China to recover their lost territory is much the same as the reason that the PRC hasn't invaded and recovered Taiwan - there's no reasonable chance of such an attempt succeeding.

The Taiwanese military cannot defeat the PLA. And the PLA cannot defeat the USA.

So both sides are stuck with one country, two systems; And both are slightly annoyed about it, but not in any position to do anything about it.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Invading Taiwan, thereby triggering a nuclear war with the United States of America that reduces your nation to glow-in-the-dark rubble is a bit more than just poor judgment.

The US very probably would not respond with nukes to a Taiwan invasion, even today, due to both military and political considerations. But after a few years?

When the new 145silos are ready, that's like 1450 strategic nukes ready to fire (assuming 10 for DF-41 version for silo launch). Or at least 120 silos, but then they have more under construction, so probably more than 200, so like 2000 nukes. A conservative estimate would be at least 1200 more silo-based nukes. That is all without counting the already existing silo-based nukes - which are not nearly as many, but they just add some more weight.

The above is only silo-based. Land-based nukes will very probably include a lot of road mobile DF-41, plus an unknown number of railroad mobile underground DF-41 in their big underground railroad network.

Land-based nukes alone will soon be (if they are not already) a massive-overkill means of deterrance against US nuclear retaliation over a Taiwan invassion, given that they are also working on an early warning system that they will certainly improve in the next few years, as they are serious in investing a lot of money on it, and they have the tech or they can get it from Russia and other sources, legally or otherwise.

All of the above is not counting the boomers: China is also making more submarines for a better second-strike capability, and they're upgrading them with new missiles too. They are making more advanced subs as well.

And that is without counting the theater nukes, or anything air-based.

The point is: Xi Jinping is getting the PLA armed to the teeth with nukes. Those nukes aren't to attack anyone of course. They're to make sure no other government will attack China with nukes.

And then there is the massive conventional buildup. That one I think probably is for the purpose of not only defense, but also attack. And the main target is probably Taiwan.

Xi would only invade Taiwan if he had solid reasons to be confident that the US would not respond, or that their response would be diplomatic censure rather than military action.

In a few (very few) years, he will have thousands of solid reasons that the US would not respond with nukes, in the silos and mobile (I think he already has that, but leaving that aside).

But I think he will invade even if he does not have conclusive reasons to be confident that the US would not respond with conventional weapons. He just need solid reasons to think he wins that war. I cannot be sure of that given the possibility of breakthroughs on either side, particularly in AI. But going by the current course and military development, I think by 2030 he will have such reasons, or maybe earlier.

I don't imagine that the US State Department (or the foreign ministries of her allies) would be foolish enough to give the impression that their response would be so weak. And I can't see a clear path to a situation where they would do so within the next few decades.

As far as I can tell, the path seems to be:

1. Make enough nukes for MAD, and the POTUS will not sacrifice his country over Taiwan.
2. Make enough conventional - and dual use - missiles (including gazillons of DF21, DF26, DF17, and so on, and whatever else they come up with) to overcome any missile defense, including with lasers, simply by sheer numbers - but also have other capabilities, like very high-speed maneuvering, hypersonic flight, or low observability and surface-skimming flight, depending on the platform.
3. Generally keep improving both weapons and training, and just in particular train for the invasion.
4. Develop asymmetric capabilities too.

And then attack when ready.

 

[Angra Mainyu]

Why do I think it's a mask? That Taiwan isn't part of China in any way, shape, or form? Well, Taiwan and China have two separate and distinct governments which have been governing(/ruling) their two separate and distinct territories since 1949. That's 72 years! Certainly SOME Chinese officials must recognize these facts and their implication on the separate and distinct nature of both states, even if it is only privately.

That's not strong evidence. For example, the Falklands have been separate from Argentina for like...forever. Or, officially, 188 years. Maybe some government officials in Argentina say privately that they're not part of Argentina. But they'd have to be very careful. Maybe they can tell their mother. And that's in a country with a far greater degree of freedom of speech than China, and no government force against dissenters. China's propaganda is vastly more effective in general. And Chinese officials grow up indoctrinated on this matter.

So, while there are always some people who see beyond the propaganda and nationalism, I would not expect that to be the general view, or even common.

I agree that the desire to conquer Taiwan exists. But at the moment, and for the near future, the opportunity does not exist. Also note that this desire to finally "reunify" China doesn't change the fact that Taiwan is, right now, it's own separate country.

Yes, Taiwan is a separate country. And the opportunity for an attack does not exist at the moment, but in the near future? I do not know how far you consider 'near'.

 

[steve_bank]

China seized Tibet after finding minerals saying it was always part of China, it annexed part of India which resulted in a military confrontation.

China seized Tibet after finding minerals on a claim of China always owning Tibet, it claims Taiwan on a bogus hinbot been enforced but yells when it s violated.

If it could get away with it it would take Taiwan. Cinna seems to be in htepre WWII posture, like emperial Jap in some ways.

In the news the Brits are stationing an aircraft carrier in the area, and an international naval fleet has crossed the disputed waters.

Chin has attacked fishing and US naval ships with playing chicken and took action against Philippine fishing ships.

The kind of things that led into WW1 and WW2.

 

[repoman]

Change this thread and and listings of the evil name to Chinese Taipei.

Your cooperation is appreciated.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

China seized Tibet after finding minerals saying it was always part of China, it annexed part of India which resulted in a military confrontation.

China seized Tibet after finding minerals on a claim of China always owning Tibet, it claims Taiwan on a bogus hinbot been enforced but yells when it s violated.

If it could get away with it it would take Taiwan. Cinna seems to be in htepre WWII posture, like emperial Jap in some ways.

In the news the Brits are stationing an aircraft carrier in the area, and an international naval fleet has crossed the disputed waters.

Chin has attacked fishing and US naval ships with playing chicken and took action against Philippine fishing ships.

The kind of things that led into WW1 and WW2.

China wants any area that was ever under Chinese control.

China also wants to expand, period.

 

[bilby]

China seized Tibet after finding minerals saying it was always part of China, it annexed part of India which resulted in a military confrontation.

China seized Tibet after finding minerals on a claim of China always owning Tibet, it claims Taiwan on a bogus hinbot been enforced but yells when it s violated.

If it could get away with it it would take Taiwan. Cinna seems to be in htepre WWII posture, like emperial Jap in some ways.

In the news the Brits are stationing an aircraft carrier in the area, and an international naval fleet has crossed the disputed waters.

Chin has attacked fishing and US naval ships with playing chicken and took action against Philippine fishing ships.

The kind of things that led into WW1 and WW2.

There's nothing happening in or around China that's more than very superficially similar to the lead up to either World War.

The Great War was the result of the strong belief on the part of the Kaiser that he could win a war against France and Russia, but that his ability to do so (particularly with regards to France) would soon be less certain. This desire for a confrontation was supported by his alliance with the double monarchy, and given a spark by their intransigent response to the assassination of their Archduke by Serbian nationalists.

None of those circumstances are emulated in the Chinese theatre today.

The Second World War was, in a very real sense, a continuation of the Great War, in the European theatre. In Asia, it was caused by Japanese expansionism, as the Japanese Empire sought to establish a place as a colonial power by emulating British, Dutch and French colonial expansion into China and the wider South East Asian region. Again, no such circumstances exist in the region today; China couldn't emulate 1930s Japan if she wanted to, and she doesn't want to.