Will Saudi Arabia Go Kaput?

[Derec]

When Britain turned Saudi Arabia into a colony with a facade monarchy (dictatorship) there was no fear of the Soviet Union doing anything.

Colony with a facade monarchy is certainly an inaccurate depiction of reality.

It is delusion to say the US can't support democracies.

It's a delusion to say that democracy qua democracy is a panacea. It all depends on the demos in question. There is also the difference between having a liberal or illiberal democracy. Many dictatorships like Venezuela are also nominally democratic. Hell, even North Korea has "Democratic" in its official name! An absolute monarchy is almost refreshing in its honesty compared to nonsense like that.

But you can't control a real democracy externally. For that a dictatorship is needed.

And what evidence do you have that KSA has been externally controlled by Britain?
Btw, security and economic agreements is not the same as external control.

Which is why we have seen the US support so many dictatorships. The US government has no love of democracy.

What are you talking about? US helped Germany develop into a democracy after WWII. Same with Japan and South Korea. It was Soviet-dominated parts of both Germany and Korea that became dictatorships.
US certainly prefers working with liberal democracies. But given the choice of a Soviet-dominated dictatorship and one friendly to the US, the choice is obvious. And illiberal democracies are no better than dictatorships anyway.

That is why it supports dictatorships like the one in Saudi Arabia.

What is the alternative? A theocracy worse than the current regime? No thanks.
At least MbS is pushing through some reforms. Women can drive now for example. Still a long way to go, but at least Saudis are no Taliban or ISIS.

 

[untermensche]

The alternative is democracy.

You know that thing the US claimed it was attacking the Iraqi people to bring them.

It is insane delusion to say the US couldn't work to spread democracy.

It just is ruled by people that don"t believe in it.

They are despots to their core.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The alternative is democracy.

You know that thing the US claimed it was attacking the Iraqi people to bring them.

It is insane delusion to say the US couldn't work to spread democracy.

It just is ruled by people that don"t believe in it.

They are despots to their core.

Look at what has actually happened. Arab "Spring" nations elect Islamists and cease to be democracies.

We have to work with the real world, not your fantasyland.

 

[untermensche]

The alternative is democracy.

You know that thing the US claimed it was attacking the Iraqi people to bring them.

It is insane delusion to say the US couldn't work to spread democracy.

It just is ruled by people that don"t believe in it.

They are despots to their core.

Look at what has actually happened. Arab "Spring" nations elect Islamists and cease to be democracies.

We have to work with the real world, not your fantasyland.

Look what happened in France in 1800.

No way democracy could ever take hold there.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

The oil will flow no matter who runs it, so long as the place isn't in complete chaos. ...

I think the argument is that the transition in governance will discombobulate production enough to inflict economic difficulties world-wide.

That has indeed happened. The Iranian revolution caused the oil shock of 1979, and Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait caused the oil shock of 1990. So Saudi Arabia suffering major turmoil could well do something similar.

Exactly my point. Thanks.

 

[Thumpalumpacus]

What are you talking about? US helped Germany develop into a democracy after WWII. Same with Japan and South Korea. It was Soviet-dominated parts of both Germany and Korea that became dictatorships.
US certainly prefers working with liberal democracies. But given the choice of a Soviet-dominated dictatorship and one friendly to the US, the choice is obvious. And illiberal democracies are no better than dictatorships anyway.

To be fair, the US has supported authoritarian regimes even outside the context of the Cold War, for instance in Kuwait in 1990 or Central America in the 30s.

Clearly the motivation for the US and the UK to meddle in KSA or Iran was driven by oil, and in Iran's case there was certainly a Cold-War element to it -- denying the USSR warm-water ports and securing our own oil supplies. But with the KSA, Cold-War politics played a very small role, I think.

And in the case of Iran, our meddling was not to prevent a Soviet-influenced dictatorship, but rather to depose an Iranian Prime Minister who was determined to see that the Iranian people benefited from the wealth being extracted. Mossadegh had no desire to see any foreign powers -- America, the UK, or the USSR --controlling what was essentially the Iranian economy. And it seems to me that calling him "illiberal" may not be entirely accurate. For all his flaws, he introduced quite a few reforms that benefited the people of Iran directly.

This is not to say that the US and UK only supported dictatorships. I'm only saying that they did on occasion, and not only for reasons of grand strategy.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The alternative is democracy.

You know that thing the US claimed it was attacking the Iraqi people to bring them.

It is insane delusion to say the US couldn't work to spread democracy.

It just is ruled by people that don"t believe in it.

They are despots to their core.

Look at what has actually happened. Arab "Spring" nations elect Islamists and cease to be democracies.

We have to work with the real world, not your fantasyland.

Look what happened in France in 1800.

No way democracy could ever take hold there.

Going from dictatorship to democracy is easier than going from theocracy to democracy.

 

[untermensche]

Look what happened in France in 1800.

No way democracy could ever take hold there.

Going from dictatorship to democracy is easier than going from theocracy to democracy.

Show me the math.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Look what happened in France in 1800.

No way democracy could ever take hold there.

Going from dictatorship to democracy is easier than going from theocracy to democracy.

Show me the math.

It's called eyeballs. Look at the world. Lots of dictatorships have collapsed. How many theocracies have?