Xi Jingping: China must prepare for war

[SLD]

Xi Jinping Says He Is Preparing China for War

The world should take him seriously.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Is this just rhetoric, or will China try to initiate a crazy action somewhere.

How should the West respond?

I think a strong unity of action among the western democracies, including South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and even Vietnam, and, if possible, India, is essential. We don’t need to get in a land war on the Chinese mainland to stop them. What country would they invade? The only likelihood is Taiwan, and that’s a very dangerous crossing for them, that we could inflict significant casualties on, very likely defeating any attack. I’m skeptical that they really have the naval power to tangle with the US Navy for a variety of reasons.

I don’t see them trying to directly attacking the US as a prelude to launching an attack On Taiwan. What would they try? Certainly not an attack on Pearl Harbor. Maybe try to hit a western deployed carrier battle group, which wouldn’t be enough. In truth any attack would have to be a massive attack across several regions to prevent a U.S. response, and it would be extremely risky, even with their hypersonic missiles. They have minimal ASW capabilities, and simply don’t have the ability to launch such a multifaceted attack. It would also risk a massive US counter strike, possibly even a nuclear exchange. Not to mention if they attack the US, they attack NATO, Japan, and Australia. Vietnam, the Philippines, and even India might even join the fray. All in all, the risk is huge for Xi. But does he realize that? Does his military realize that?

It seems to me that China’s long term strategy should be to wait out the US, hoping for its eventual decline. Develop their technological capabilities much further and compete with the United States for access to raw materials, all the while developing their Naval power to much greater strength. Weaken the US by denying it critical minerals and such. Weaken it over the long term, taking decades to facilitate its decline. An attack in the next ten years though seems highly risky. 50 years is a better time frame.

 

[Gospel]

Who he trying to negotiate with right now? Must really want something to talk bout war prep.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

War is silly. War with America is really dumb. America can be beaten... but America can flatten half of China just via the subs we have in the Pacific firing conventional weapons.

War these days is economic, and China has been fighting it in Africa and now shifting to Central America.

 

[Jayjay]

Nothing good will come out of this.

 

[TV and credit cards]

I don't think time is necessarily on China's side. Taking it slow will further isolate them economically. Keeping advanced technology out of China's hands is in focus now. Putin's actions has brought us allies together and recognizing threats. The nuclear sub agreement between the AU, UK, and US is about more than just subs in Australia. It is also about the further integration of our defense industries, that we, all of NATO+ are capable of operating as one seamless force. The US is not matching China's ship building capabilities. Their navy is larger than ours. The integration of our defense industries is our answer. The fly in the ointment is a change in US government or any allied government with a nationalist/isolationist administration that can slow or put everything on hold for years.

On the Chinese side, I see a lot of advanced military equipment but is there the expertise to utilize it to its fullest capabilities and to have all the various pieces working together in harmony. The US has been doing this in training and in practice for years.

I am still of the opinion that if China attacks Taiwan, we should see if Taiwan folds. In my opinion, Taiwan still hasn't the sense of urgency they should have given their circumstances. They only recently extended their conscription requirements from 4 months to one year effective in 2024. To me this looks like a country expecting someone else to fight their battle or one that would quickly agree to unification. If the US is going to engage in a conventional war with China on the high seas, it better damn well be worth it because it's going to cost us dearly. If China attacks Taiwan, I say let them, then just turn the economic screws. And FFS stop educating their people. Why are we allowing them in our universities?

 

[RVonse]

The smartest play for the US would simply rebuild its own competitive chip building again. Punish US corporations for moving to Taiwan and reward those who build in America. Then everyone's island paranoia associated with Taiwan just goes away..no need to fight over a small island no one cares about anymore.

In order to bring tech back to the US though, there would need to be an immediate cleaning up of political campaign corruption and all senior officials would need to be free of Chinese bribery and influence. And I don't see that likely to happen any time soon.

As for fighting an actual conventional war the US would lose heavily. The Chinese beat the US in Vietnam and US military has only gotten much worse since then.

Compare US military recruitment—
to Chinese military recruitment—

The fighting would not even be close IMO. The Chinese has a motivated and highly effective military against the "woke" US leadership. No contest at all.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

No contest at all? We could sink their ships before they made it Taiwan. And you can bomb from planes, but you can't occupy from them. 100 miles sounds small... until you have to cross it by swimming. China fighting for Taiwan is not an easy feat at all. They have the power, but logistics always trumps power. And of course, they wouldn't want to do to Taiwan as Russia is to Ukraine. That infrastructure is valuable.

This isn't North v South Korea, where one side doesn't care if it turns the South to ashes, in order to win. China wants Taiwan back, likely in whole.

 

[Ford]

It seems to me that China’s long term strategy should be to wait out the US, hoping for its eventual decline. Develop their technological capabilities much further and compete with the United States for access to raw materials, all the while developing their Naval power to much greater strength. Weaken the US by denying it critical minerals and such. Weaken it over the long term, taking decades to facilitate its decline. An attack in the next ten years though seems highly risky. 50 years is a better time frame.

They are obviously thinking long term. Look at Hong Kong. They've been slowly, methodically working on taking back the city. Took them 25 years, but HK is basically under their wing now. Taiwan? Might take them 50 years, but is the US or the West committed to countering their slow, methodical takeover? US administrations and priorities change every 4 or 8 years.

Another somewhat analogous situation is Israel/Palestine. Israel is taking back the West Bank block by block. Slowly. Methodically. Within a decade or two, it will be absorbed into Israel, and then they'll start in on Gaza. The difference of course is that the US would never step in militarily to stop them.

If China moves too quickly on Taiwan, that may happen. So they're being patient. Slow. Methodical. The US doesn't operate that way, and will have a challenge countering it over the course of decades.

 

[laughing dog]

No one is going to invade or attack China. So if China is preparing for war, that means China is preparing to attack someone sometime in the future. The best bet for a target is Taiwan.

 

[Copernicus]

I think that this is just ramping up the brinksmanship. It will focus more US resources on China, distracting it from the effort in Ukraine. Right now, I'm guessing that the move was coordinated as part of an agreement with Russia, which wants to form a new Asian military-industrial coalition that includes China, North Korea, and Iran. North Korea is China's catspaw, and we might see even more aggressive behavior from that country in the future. Also, China appears to be trying to gain closer contacts with the central Asian "stans". This is Cold War II in the making.

 

[bilby]

The Russian propaganda machine has been seeking ways to divert US attention onto China ever since the Russians invaded Ukraine.

The Chinese have no particular reason not to play along; Good relations with Russia grease the wheels of their highly profitable arms exports, and go some way towards compensating Russia for the low, low prices of the gas they export to China (because they can't sell it to the West).

Expect to see a LOT of "we should stop wasting money on Ukraine and waste it in Taiwan instead", particularly from the GQP wing of the Putin Propaganda Agency, while the war in Ukraine continues.

It's good propaganda, because it contains a grain of truth - China would indeed invade Taiwan if they thought the US wouldn't try to stop them. But the US is easily big enough to handle both the Taiwan and the Ukraine situations simultaneously, so the idea that the former could, would, or should have an impact on the latter is pure theatre, aimed at advancing Russian interests at the expense of those of the West.

 

[Elixir]

Who he trying to negotiate with right now? Must really want something to talk bout war prep.

I think SLD is right:

to wait out the US, hoping for its eventual decline. Develop their technological capabilities much further and compete with the United States for access to raw materials, all the while developing their Naval power to much greater strength. Weaken the US by denying it critical minerals and such. Weaken it over the long term, taking decades to facilitate its decline. An attack in the next ten years though seems highly risky. 50 years is a better time frame.

Largely thanks to Donald Trump, that project is/was going pretty much to plan, but better. Now, progress is slowing and even the Chinese can foresee that Trump is just too stupid and too insane to ever get re-elected. So at minimum a mini-revolt in the US can be expected if he runs and loses again. And if Trump wins - well, so do they. Trump will give them Taiwan for some nice letters from Xi. I'm sure they're supporting Trump.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I think they're just trying to accomplish something by rattling their sabre. China is basically a never-ending stream of sabre-rattling. I also think it's more for domestic consumption--their obsession with keeping up an unsustainable growth rate is causing repercussions.

 

[Jayjay]

The way I see it, Xi has two paths.

1) He might see that the war in Ukraine is a unique opportunity to take Taiwan while USA is tied up in Europe. This means an attack could happen in very short time, as early as this year, but more likely 2024-2026. This could get very messy, because US supporting Taiwan would also mean China ramping up support to Russia which escalates the war in Europe as well.

2) He might think that with time, China will eventually surpass the US in military an economic power. In this case the smart strategy is to wait. The deadline for taking Taiwan is probably 1949, the 100th year anniversary of the PRC, so Xi could wait for a couple of decades until China is strong enough.

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

Here is me, talking out of my ass...

I don't think the short-term strategy is to attack, but instead to threaten....to continue building militarily and get the internal mindset on military more and more. Externally, they want to leverage military capabilities and intimidation and economic power to discourage world diplomacy with Taiwan.

Looking at numbers quickly, they are not primed for attack, but for growth. Last decade, doubled military spending. This year up 7.2% which is consistent with another doubling in a decade. Russia takes heat for Ukraine. Western economies continue to get hit. China plays the middle while investing long-term in military, Africa, politics re: Taiwan, and economic power. Playing the middle means everyone wants to be their friend and they economically benefit.

If they take Taiwan 20 years from now, their military will have quadrupled spending by then. I believe they would only do it with political, internal support in Taiwan that they are "saving." Some parties in Taiwan have nuanced views on foreign relations and China and they may try to leverage the nuanced positions most favorable to long-term reunification in the shorter term, such as isolationist views re: the West. But to get to that end favorable state in Taiwan, they need to also reduce Taiwanese friends diplomatically, which is what I think this is about.

 

[Copernicus]

I would say that there is another issue with Xi Jinping that stands out. Like Putin, he has managed to corner the market on power in China. He is what counts as the modern emperor of China, just as Putin is the emperor of Russia. And, like Putin, Xi is at an age where he thinks about his legacy. He wants to go down in history as one of China's greatest rulers. Hence, he needs to increase his country's wealth, power, and influence in a massive and significant way. He wants China to be the dominant regional power and essentially replace the United States as the world's "essential nation", as Americans like to think of themselves. So he is going to focus on elbowing the US out of the way while he is alive. He can't wait. It has to happen before he dies, or the next guy to replace him gets the credit. So there is a long game, but there is also a short game. He wants Taiwan to kowtow and become part of his empire or, at least, acknowledge its status as a vassal. What Putin is trying to do with Russia--become its greatest tsar--is also what Xi wants to do with China. When they bring up Mao's refrigerated corpse to display for tourists, Xi wants his corpse alongside it.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

The way I see it, Xi has two paths.

1) He might see that the war in Ukraine is a unique opportunity to take Taiwan while USA is tied up in Europe. This means an attack could happen in very short time, as early as this year, but more likely 2024-2026. This could get very messy, because US supporting Taiwan would also mean China ramping up support to Russia which escalates the war in Europe as well.

But we aren't tied up in Europe. Only a few trainers are in Ukraine. And if it comes to a battle for Taiwan the army doesn't have much of any role. It will be the Air Force and Navy that fight. If China can force the straight they'll win regardless of our army because of the much shorter supply line (and thus we should not commit ground troops other than operators of heavy weapons.) If they can't force the straight they'll lose without a ground engagement in the first place.

 

[SLD]

Here is me, talking out of my ass...

I don't think the short-term strategy is to attack, but instead to threaten....to continue building militarily and get the internal mindset on military more and more. Externally, they want to leverage military capabilities and intimidation and economic power to discourage world diplomacy with Taiwan.

Looking at numbers quickly, they are not primed for attack, but for growth. Last decade, doubled military spending. This year up 7.2% which is consistent with another doubling in a decade. Russia takes heat for Ukraine. Western economies continue to get hit. China plays the middle while investing long-term in military, Africa, politics re: Taiwan, and economic power. Playing the middle means everyone wants to be their friend and they economically benefit.

If they take Taiwan 20 years from now, their military will have quadrupled spending by then. I believe they would only do it with political, internal support in Taiwan that they are "saving." Some parties in Taiwan have nuanced views on foreign relations and China and they may try to leverage the nuanced positions most favorable to long-term reunification in the shorter term, such as isolationist views re: the West. But to get to that end favorable state in Taiwan, they need to also reduce Taiwanese friends diplomatically, which is what I think this is about.

I agree that this is the smart play. But is that what Xi is thinking. Copernicus is also right. He may feel the need to get this done before he leaves the scene. That cements his legacy. If he’s successful. And that’s in serious doubt. Especially given how well Ukraine is doing. He has to realize that it would take an enormous amount of military force and personnel to accomplish, and a willingness to accept huge casualties, and he’d inherit a shell of an island as a result. Plus seriously jeopardize the economic progress that has been made. That would not cement his legacy.

Maybe he hopes that Taiwan will capitulate without a fight. I don’t think it will.

In hindsight, Taiwan should have declared itself independent simultaneously with the US recognition of Communist China In the late 70’s. The US could have recognized both at this point, and China had almost no Navy power to stop it. The communists might have accepted it at that point. Especially if we made an alliance with Taiwan to ensure its freedom. Deng was smarter than Xi.

 

[SLD]

The way I see it, Xi has two paths.

1) He might see that the war in Ukraine is a unique opportunity to take Taiwan while USA is tied up in Europe. This means an attack could happen in very short time, as early as this year, but more likely 2024-2026. This could get very messy, because US supporting Taiwan would also mean China ramping up support to Russia which escalates the war in Europe as well.

But we aren't tied up in Europe. Only a few trainers are in Ukraine. And if it comes to a battle for Taiwan the army doesn't have much of any role. It will be the Air Force and Navy that fight. If China can force the straight they'll win regardless of our army because of the much shorter supply line (and thus we should not commit ground troops other than operators of heavy weapons.) If they can't force the straight they'll lose without a ground engagement in the first place.

Very true. It would also be an undersea war. We should move more of our sub fleet to the pacific. The Russians aren’t going to come plowing through the GI-UK gap anytime soon. Station more fast attacks and SSGN‘s at Pearl, and Guam. A CVBG is just a magnet for a hypersonic missile.

 

[steve_bank]

The same playbook as Putin and as with all dictators.

Wen unrest looms at home stoke the fears of war and attack. Protect the Chinese revolution comrades.

The Chinese leaders are skilled at propaganda. In the 70s and 80s pre Internet I listened to global short wave radio. What we see from Russia and China is the same Cold War poaganda.