Jayjay
Contributor
- Joined
- Apr 7, 2002
- Messages
- 7,173
- Location
- Finland
- Basic Beliefs
- An accurate worldview or philosophy
One problem: ammunution. Especially artillery shells and rockets. US is already straining to produce what Ukraine needs, and in case of a second front in Taiwan some prioritization would have to be made.But we aren't tied up in Europe. Only a few trainers are in Ukraine. And if it comes to a battle for Taiwan the army doesn't have much of any role. It will be the Air Force and Navy that fight. If China can force the straight they'll win regardless of our army because of the much shorter supply line (and thus we should not commit ground troops other than operators of heavy weapons.) If they can't force the straight they'll lose without a ground engagement in the first place.The way I see it, Xi has two paths.
1) He might see that the war in Ukraine is a unique opportunity to take Taiwan while USA is tied up in Europe. This means an attack could happen in very short time, as early as this year, but more likely 2024-2026. This could get very messy, because US supporting Taiwan would also mean China ramping up support to Russia which escalates the war in Europe as well.
However, I do hope Xi is not crazy enough to attack.