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You are Prime Minister of Great Britain - July 1914

SLD

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You know what's coming. You realize that "the lights are going out all across Europe" and you fear they will not be lit again in your lifetime.

You know millions will die in the muddy fields of France. A generation of your countrymen are going to be scarred severely.

But if you let Germany win, it could be worse.

What do you do?

SLD
 
But it's still July. You don't have to drag your countrymen into it. You can let the Kaiser have Belgium.

SLD
 
With 20-20 hindsight, letting the Kaiser trample on Belgian neutrality to the extent of marching his army through, then asking the Germans to say 'sorry' one they have defeated France - perhaps with Britain acting as peace-maker to negotiate an armistice that kept France from supporting Russia, while requiring the Germans to withdraw from France with a few minor spoils - would be the best call.

The whole business on the Western front could be over in a few months. There would be fierce war in the Balkans, of course; and further north against the Tsar's boys coming to Serbia's rescue; but that's not a fight Great Britain needs to worry about.

None of the belligerents are particularly unpleasant regimes - the Russian nobility are pretty vile, and the double monarchy is a bit of a joke, but there's no Hitler or Stalin amongst them, and the long war of attrition will lead to the rise of both. The Western front is supposed to be a quick victory for Germany, eliminating the chance that France will come to the aid of Russia, and without the BEF, the French probably would have collapsed (they came close enough even with the support of the British).

Of course, Asquith couldn't have predicted much of this in July of 1914.

In mid-1914, the honourable thing to do was, very clearly, to support Belgian neutrality; and the 'correct' diplomatic response was to try to maintain the balance of power between France and Germany by supporting the side that was attacked against the aggressor; and by maintaining the buffer of neutral nations between those two powers.

It's difficult to see how Asquith could have made a better call, given only the information he had at the time.
 
With 20-20 hindsight, letting the Kaiser trample on Belgian neutrality to the extent of marching his army through, then asking the Germans to say 'sorry' one they have defeated France - perhaps with Britain acting as peace-maker to negotiate an armistice that kept France from supporting Russia, while requiring the Germans to withdraw from France with a few minor spoils - would be the best call.

The whole business on the Western front could be over in a few months. There would be fierce war in the Balkans, of course; and further north against the Tsar's boys coming to Serbia's rescue; but that's not a fight Great Britain needs to worry about.

None of the belligerents are particularly unpleasant regimes - the Russian nobility are pretty vile, and the double monarchy is a bit of a joke, but there's no Hitler or Stalin amongst them, and the long war of attrition will lead to the rise of both. The Western front is supposed to be a quick victory for Germany, eliminating the chance that France will come to the aid of Russia, and without the BEF, the French probably would have collapsed (they came close enough even with the support of the British).

Of course, Asquith couldn't have predicted much of this in July of 1914.

In mid-1914, the honourable thing to do was, very clearly, to support Belgian neutrality; and the 'correct' diplomatic response was to try to maintain the balance of power between France and Germany by supporting the side that was attacked against the aggressor; and by maintaining the buffer of neutral nations between those two powers.

It's difficult to see how Asquith could have made a better call, given only the information he had at the time.
Well thought out answer, Bilby. What I was interested in reading. I read that Germany offered to Britain that it would seek no territorial acquisitions in either Belgium or France if England stayed out of the way. The offer so enraged Britain that it had a decisive impact on their decision to go to war. It confirmed their worst fears of Germany. But it also might have allowed Britain to retain its strategic interest in keeping Germany from becoming too powerful. Maybe not. A defeated but intact France would still be a neutered France. The forces of despotism would be triumphant - even though you realize that the forces that replace them (Hitler and Stalin are even worse). Standing by and doing nothing seems to confirm the worst fears of Britain: Perfidious Albion.

In the end, I agree; Asquith could do no better.

SLD
 
The problem with that is there's absolutely no way to be sure that Germany would keep its word after settling France and Russia. The primary reason Britain sided with France is not that Germany was the aggressor or violated Belgian neutrality, but that Germany was a naval threat that France wasn't. See, Germany had about twice France's population and three times its industry. There was no way that France could build an army that could oppose Germany and a navy that could oppose Britain. But Germany could build an army that could oppose France AND Russia AND a navy that could oppose Britain. In 1914, its navy was still smaller than Britain's but only because Britain had deliberately committed to keeping its navy bigger. The entente between France and Britain was that France should keep a navy only big enough to maintain its colonies, while focusing on its army to oppose germany, while Britain would focus on its navy and in the event of war with Germany, take over responsibility for shielding Atlantic France from Germany's navy. If Britain had given Germany a free hand in Europe, then there would be nothing to stop them from reneging on any promises they made, and continuing to build their navy, now undistracted by any other continental threats.

The constant policy of Britain over the years was to ally against the most powerful continental country. Throughout history, this was usually France, but at other times they switched to supporting France against Spain, against Austria, against Russia and against Germany, whenever these other countries threatened to dominate the continent. Britain's strategy, for a millenium, has been to keep any one nation from dominating Europe, and I don't think this sort of hindsight really alters that fundamental strategic truth. If Britain had let Germany have its way, it would have been left alone at Germany's mercy, and dependent on Germany's honor.
 
The problem with that is there's absolutely no way to be sure that Germany would keep its word after settling France and Russia. The primary reason Britain sided with France is not that Germany was the aggressor or violated Belgian neutrality, but that Germany was a naval threat that France wasn't. See, Germany had about twice France's population and three times its industry. There was no way that France could build an army that could oppose Germany and a navy that could oppose Britain. But Germany could build an army that could oppose France AND Russia AND a navy that could oppose Britain. In 1914, its navy was still smaller than Britain's but only because Britain had deliberately committed to keeping its navy bigger. The entente between France and Britain was that France should keep a navy only big enough to maintain its colonies, while focusing on its army to oppose germany, while Britain would focus on its navy and in the event of war with Germany, take over responsibility for shielding Atlantic France from Germany's navy. If Britain had given Germany a free hand in Europe, then there would be nothing to stop them from reneging on any promises they made, and continuing to build their navy, now undistracted by any other continental threats.

The constant policy of Britain over the years was to ally against the most powerful continental country. Throughout history, this was usually France, but at other times they switched to supporting France against Spain, against Austria, against Russia and against Germany, whenever these other countries threatened to dominate the continent. Britain's strategy, for a millenium, has been to keep any one nation from dominating Europe, and I don't think this sort of hindsight really alters that fundamental strategic truth. If Britain had let Germany have its way, it would have been left alone at Germany's mercy, and dependent on Germany's honor.

Absolutely. But with hindsight, relying on the Kaiser to keep his word was a better bet than relying on Hitler to keep his.

One interesting question is 'what happens if Germany does come to dominate Europe?'; and there seem to be two answers available to us from the last century of history, that were not available to the denizens of 1914.

The first example of German dominance is the events of the early 1940s; With a murderous dictator in charge, the result was horrific and required a long and costly war, ending with the partition of Germany, to correct.

The second example is the period form the early 1990s until today; With a European political union dominated by, but not under the complete control of, Germany. The result of this is not yet clear; The Germans (and to a lesser extent, the French) have been pushing for a 'United States of Europe', but by attempting to introduce this slowly (due to opposition from other EU member nations, particularly Britain, and due to opposition from popular opinion amongst the ordinary citizens) has led to a number of major problems - running a single currency with a couple of dozen separate fiscal policies has caused a disaster for the Southern states, while unfairly enriching the industrialised states to the North, for example.

Now the Union seems likely to break up - or at least to shed a few members. But the core continental power will still be Germany; and for the average European Union citizen, this doesn't seem to be a particularly bad outcome. As Tom Lehrer memorably sang:

Once all the Germans were warlike, and mean
But that couldn't happen again.
We taught them a lesson, in 1918,
And they've hardly bothered us since then.​

My feeling is that there is a 'natural' maximum size for a nation state that is determined by communications; The Roman Empire could grow large, because of good roads; The countries in the Americas could grow large because of railroads and the telegraph - and because the smaller states from which they were assembled hadn't had the time to build too much history of war and rivalry. But European nations started out small, with geographic barriers forming the borders; and now they are really a bit too small for modern, high-tech nation states; but are shackled by nationalism and linguistic barriers, preventing them from uniting effectively. A 'United States of Europe' is, I believe, inevitable; but whether it includes such outliers as Greece or Britain; and what the effects of being in or out might be for those 'edge' states, remains to be seen.

Certainly in the first half of the 20th century, a Europe dominated by Germany was very much against British interests, and likely against the interests of most (non-German) European citizens. But it is far less obvious today that a German dominated Europe is a bad thing; particularly if Britain remains in a position to oppose German interests in the EU Parliament. A British exit from the EU would leave Germany very much dominant from the Atlantic to the Russian border; and the only way for Britain to remain a power in such circumstances would be for her to rely on her overseas empire. But the British Empire no longer exists.

In 1914, Britain had an Empire to keep her rich enough to be the world's foremost naval power; and she had her diplomatic finger on the scale of power balance in a divided Europe. Those two things made her a Great Power. She now has neither, and risks becoming almost completely irrelevant on the world stage. The First World War was not enough to break her; but it laid the foundations for the Second, and that drained her power to the point where she could no longer dominate her imperial possessions; and shorn of an empire, she had no choice but to become a part of an increasingly united European trading bloc, which ultimately led to a unified French and German policy for a united Europe, destroying the conflict upon which British diplomacy has relied for so long.
 
I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I don't think Chamberlain actually believed Hitler. He was buying time for his rearmament programme. In hindsight, it would have been better to take a hard line earlier, but he wasn't the fool people paint him. He did start the major rearmament programme that Churchill inherited.

Another difference was that in 1914, Germany had a navy capable of threatening Britain, whiile in 1938, it didn't.

A third difference was that once everyone mobilized in 1914, it was clear that war would be inevitable, and that Germany could possibly defeat France and Russia. In 1938, it was not apparent that Germany could necessarily defeat France, it was not obvious that Germany and the USSR would form a pact to destroy Poland, and it was certainly not apparent that war was inevitable.

Oh, and if I were Prime Minister, I would FIRE WINSTON CHURCHILL!
 
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I've said it before, and I'll say it again: I don't think Chamberlain actually believed Hitler. He was buying time for his rearmament programme. In hindsight, it would have been better to take a hard line earlier, but he wasn't the fool people paint him. He did start the major rearmament programme that Churchill inherited.

Another difference was that in 1914, Germany had a navy capable of threatening Britain, whiile in 1938, it didn't.

A third difference was that once everyone mobilized in 1914, it was clear that war would be inevitable, and that Germany could possibly defeat France and Russia. In 1938, it was not apparent that Germany could necessarily defeat France, it was not obvious that Germany and the USSR would form a pact to destroy Poland, and it was certainly not apparent that war was inevitable.

Oh, and if I were Prime Minister, I would FIRE WINSTON CHURCHILL!

OK. I'll bite. Why would you fire Winston?

SLD
 
I don't know about Sarpedon, but I would fire Churchill too - he was a major war hawk, which in 1914 made him a major liability; And as First Sea Lord was to be directly and personally responsible for the disastrous Gallipoli campaign.

He didn't learn from his mistake at Gallipoli, either; in WWII, he was a constant agitator for attacks on the 'soft underbelly' of Europe, which diverted valuable resources from the Normandy campaign, and which had almost zero chance of success due to his apparently having overlooked the existence of the Alps.

His belligerent attitude was good for morale, both during his service on the Western front after his post-Dardanelles sacking from the Admiralty; and later, in a badly beaten Britain in the dark days of the early 1940s, before Hitler committed strategic suicide by launching Operation Barbarossa; But the British public were under no illusions about his competence as a peacetime leader, and dumped him at the ballot box as soon as WWII was over.
 
I don't know about Sarpedon, but I would fire Churchill too - he was a major war hawk, which in 1914 made him a major liability; And as First Sea Lord was to be directly and personally responsible for the disastrous Gallipoli campaign.
Not only that; he may have been why Turkey was even an enemy in the first place -- it was Churchill who ordered the seizure of the Turks' battleships.

"British fears of a coming Ottoman–German alliance led to her seizure for use by the Royal Navy, together with another Ottoman dreadnought being constructed in Britain. This act was a significant contributor to the decision of the Ottoman government to join the Central Powers, as the payments for both ships were complete."​

If Turkey had remained neutral Germany might well have been beaten before Russia fell. If so, we wouldn't have won the war only to lose the peace.
 
These are indeed some of the reasons.

I also blame him for the battle of Coronel, which some find controversial, but I stand by.

I honestly didn't intend that as a hook for discussion, but merely a reiteration of a longstanding opinion which we have touched on here many times, and I'm not really wanting to go over again. If you want you can search my posts for more information.
 
I don't know about Sarpedon, but I would fire Churchill too - he was a major war hawk, which in 1914 made him a major liability; And as First Sea Lord was to be directly and personally responsible for the disastrous Gallipoli campaign.

He didn't learn from his mistake at Gallipoli, either; in WWII, he was a constant agitator for attacks on the 'soft underbelly' of Europe, which diverted valuable resources from the Normandy campaign, and which had almost zero chance of success due to his apparently having overlooked the existence of the Alps.

His belligerent attitude was good for morale, both during his service on the Western front after his post-Dardanelles sacking from the Admiralty; and later, in a badly beaten Britain in the dark days of the early 1940s, before Hitler committed strategic suicide by launching Operation Barbarossa; But the British public were under no illusions about his competence as a peacetime leader, and dumped him at the ballot box as soon as WWII was over.

Oddly enough, he opposed the landings in Southern France two weeks after Normandy. Operation Dragoon. Which were rather successful. This operation was named Dragoon supposedly because Churchill had to be dragooned into supporting it reluctantly.
 
You are Prime Minister of Great Britain - July 1914

The point is that you have the Suffragettes demanding justice, the possibility of an army revolt and civil war in Ireland, and, much more important, the rise of a militant working class, a huge strike wave and the rise of the Labour Party. You obviously go for the biggest distraction you can get. Who cares about the lives of a lot of bloody people?
 
A third difference was that once everyone mobilized in 1914, it was clear that war would be inevitable, and that Germany could possibly defeat France and Russia.
Yes, but this was a relatively new development that was understood by the military strategists, but the implications were not fully realized by the politicians. In the past, mobilization required time, and the process of mobilization could be analyzed allowing the strategists time to tweak their positions and in some cases allow for a continuance of diplomacy. Because of rapid transportation and maneuver in 1914 this was no longer the case. War commitments were required immediately for fear of being at a fatal disadvantage.

And yes, in my opinion it was the Kaiser's commitment to build a large navy that was the predominant reason for Britain's decision to end her "Splendid Isolation" and pact with France, and through them Russia. Europe really blundered into this war, and of course this war was really the cause of the next one also due to blunders made at the Armistice.
 
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