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Minimum Wage and Unionization (split)

You are cherry picking. You arbitrarily have divided the data into two sets: one point which you claim supports your view, and all the other where you hand -wave away the result that conflict with your view. You hand-waved the Card-Krueger results based on your ignorance about their methodology.

Furthermore, you keep mentioning this "Group A" point without any reference to the actual time frame and context or how it actually supports your position.

The point is it has never been shown how we could observe an effect in most cases. The group B data is unfalsifiable and therefore worthless. And group A has been discussed on here before, I figured you would know it. American Samoa--a good portion of the population was working for minimum wage and it suddenly jumped considerably.
You claim that group B is necessarily unfalsifiable is false. Card and Krueger's work is evidence your claim is false.
You're showing all sorts of things that will muddy the water, not make it easier to see.
That is my point exactly. It is difficult to parse these things out. It really depends on the data and context. So, your cherry-picked (and undefined) one point really isn't much evidence of anything.

You're continuing to show how unfalisifiable your position is.
No, I am showing how attention to context matters. If raising the minimum wage so obviously caused job losses, the empirical work would be clear. It isn't. That's because the real world is much messier than the ideal world of ECON 101 demand and supply market equilibriums.

I think that it is no surprise that in the short-run, small or medium changes in the minimum wage have little effect on hours worked or job loss because many firms cannot quickly change their business operations - it takes time to make the adjustment without unnecessarily losing revenue and/or customers. However, over longer time periods, firm may adjust their business model.

The point is you can't prove it's zero--you can never prove zero. All you can do is prove it's below the noise floor.

The problem here is that anything other than huge changes in minimum wage employment are normally below the noise floor. A failure to detect them is expected. To fail to detect what you shouldn't be able to detect warrants a no-bull prize, not a Nobel prize.
 
The problem with your argument is the assumption that they compared overall unemployment figures, rather than just the unemployment figures of the minimum-wage earners. It doesn't matter what the relative proportion of minimum-wage earners is to the total population, all that matters to make it statistically significant is if the sample size for minimum wage earners is big enough.

The same way it doesn't matter whether you do a presidential poll in one state or all 50 states: the margin of error is practically the same for the same sample size.
And you have a non-varying population of people who are minimum wage earners??? No, that's a highly variable pool!
 
A failure to detect them is expected
...and is indistinguishable from them being insignificant. So why are you so alarmed by the prospect?

Raising minimum wage would have a significant and detectable positive impact on the vast majority of those affected. Your objection that it might also have an insignificant and undetectable negative impact on some of those people is noted, and discarded as the irrational position that it self-evidently is.
 
The problem with your argument is the assumption that they compared overall unemployment figures, rather than just the unemployment figures of the minimum-wage earners. It doesn't matter what the relative proportion of minimum-wage earners is to the total population, all that matters to make it statistically significant is if the sample size for minimum wage earners is big enough.

The same way it doesn't matter whether you do a presidential poll in one state or all 50 states: the margin of error is practically the same for the same sample size.
And you have a non-varying population of people who are minimum wage earners??? No, that's a highly variable pool!
The actual study didn't look at demographics, but specific businesses in two states and compared how their employment numbers developed. The point is that to make something statistically significant, it's the sample size that matters, not the population size.
 
Min wage was not intended to provide a living wage.
What it was originally intended for isn't something we're bound by today. We can scoop up the debris of past ages and build something better out of it to address the problems we face today. Case in point...

It was about providing a wage floor to give some protection to workers.
"Protection" is exactly the right word -- protection as in protectionism. The goal is to protect sellers from their own customers taking their business to lower-priced competitors, the same as tariffs providing a price floor to give some protection to General Motors from Hyundai. The historical record is perfectly clear about who the minimum wage was originally intended to provide protection to, and from whom. Its original purpose was to prevent black people from taking white people's jobs.

But that's not a good reason not to have a minimum wage, or to not to have it at whatever level we think best. That's something we must decide based on 21st century conditions, not on memories of the 1930s.
 
Min wage was not intended to provide a living wage. It was about providing a wage floor to give some protection to workers.
View attachment 38019
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country." Well, at least one person in the "living wage" movement is upfront about the fact that his plan is to eliminate jobs.
 
Make that two...

"What is remarkable...is how this [Card and Kruger's] rather iffy result has been seized upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage increases a core component of the liberal agenda.... Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price of labor--unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments--can be set based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without unpleasant side effects." - Paul Krugman

Krugman Contra Krugman on the Minimum Wage?
 
Make that two...

"What is remarkable...is how this [Card and Kruger's] rather iffy result has been seized upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage increases a core component of the liberal agenda.... Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price of labor--unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments--can be set based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without unpleasant side effects." - Paul Krugman

Krugman Contra Krugman on the Minimum Wage?
Surely it's sufficient that the unpleasant side effects be outweighed by the pleasant effects.

Such side effects need not be absent for it to be a good idea.

Noting that it's not likely we would have full employment under any of the possible values for minimum wage.
 
Min wage was not intended to provide a living wage. It was about providing a wage floor to give some protection to workers.
View attachment 38019
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country." Well, at least one person in the "living wage" movement is upfront about the fact that his plan is to eliminate jobs.
Your conclusion does not follow from your premise. While the elimination of job paying less living wages is the consequence of the plan, it does not follow the intent is to eliminate jobs but to replace jobs.
 
Make that two...

"What is remarkable...is how this [Card and Kruger's] rather iffy result has been seized upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage increases a core component of the liberal agenda.... Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price of labor--unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments--can be set based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without unpleasant side effects." - Paul Krugman

Krugman Contra Krugman on the Minimum Wage?
That article is poorly reasoned. and a hack job. There is no contradiction between being skeptical about or against large increases in the minimum wage and supporting small increases. Moroever, trotting a statement from 1988 before the current research on the effects of the minimum wage were made is just effing intellectually dishonest - compelling new information ought to change someone's mind.
 
If they're correct and they think the marginal revenue from employing current $7.25/hour labor is more than $15/hour, do they have an explanation for why there still exists a large pool of unemployed people, even though an employer who offers an unemployed person a $7.25/hour job can count on close to $8/hour of additional profit right off the top?

The existence of a large pool of unemployed people is empirical evidence that ITUC is wrong.

And if there's $8/hr in profit per employee that would encourage someone to open a new business even though they didn't make as much profit per hour.
What is this talking about? Raising the minimum wage is across board. So every company would feel that impact, though it'd vary based on the percentage they employed that made less than the hike. Those costs would then go into the system, but the price of production isn't going up 1 to 1 with the wage increase, as there are a lot more costs to doing business than wages.
 
Min wage was not intended to provide a living wage. It was about providing a wage floor to give some protection to workers.
View attachment 38019
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country." Well, at least one person in the "living wage" movement is upfront about the fact that his plan is to eliminate jobs.
Jobs and industries are already being eliminated (and not because of paying potentially a few more bucks and hour). The funny part about the anti-minimum wage people is that the real truth is we are heading to a point where computers, automation, 3D printing (gawd help us if we figure out quantum computing) replace a huge number of jobs... and then we don't have enough jobs for the people there are... no where near enough. And you are worried about minimum wage hikes and unions.

Finally, the low paying jobs require taxpayer subsidies for food, housing, medical care, almost every aspect of their lives. We are paying this one way or the other!
 
This bizarre idea that "everyone has to work" is surprisingly hard to kill.

It's never been true; Society has always supported fairly large numbers of unproductive people, often in luxury - aristocrats, priests, children, old people, the sick, injured, and disabled, all have been provided for beyond their personal contributions in the past, and we are better able to provide for them (and for others) today, than ever before.

It's a truly broken system in which getting in a machine that does all the most difficult parts of your labour is a bad prospect for you to face.

People need to stop being replaced by machines, and start being assisted by machines.

Automation should massively increase leisure and wealth across society, not just for a tiny handful of multibillionaires.

We can afford to support a large number of unemployed people in some degree of comfort. Instead we bitch and moan about how the homeless people are shitting in the streets.

That's fucked up right there.

Freeloaders were a problem in a society that had real and life threatening shortages. We don't live in such a society, and we need to stop acting as though we do.
 
A failure to detect them is expected
...and is indistinguishable from them being insignificant. So why are you so alarmed by the prospect?

Raising minimum wage would have a significant and detectable positive impact on the vast majority of those affected. Your objection that it might also have an insignificant and undetectable negative impact on some of those people is noted, and discarded as the irrational position that it self-evidently is.

No. The problem is in assuming a fixed pool. You can't just compare minimum wage workers because your pool changes size so easily. It's an attempt to pretend the noise doesn't exist--but it still does.
 
The problem with your argument is the assumption that they compared overall unemployment figures, rather than just the unemployment figures of the minimum-wage earners. It doesn't matter what the relative proportion of minimum-wage earners is to the total population, all that matters to make it statistically significant is if the sample size for minimum wage earners is big enough.

The same way it doesn't matter whether you do a presidential poll in one state or all 50 states: the margin of error is practically the same for the same sample size.
And you have a non-varying population of people who are minimum wage earners??? No, that's a highly variable pool!
The actual study didn't look at demographics, but specific businesses in two states and compared how their employment numbers developed. The point is that to make something statistically significant, it's the sample size that matters, not the population size.

Normally I would agree with you. However, in this case you have two factors: Jobs lost due to minimum wage and workers lost to better paying jobs.

There's also the problem that you would expect to see some of the job loss delayed--the company raises wages but that pushes a marginal company over the edge.
 
Make that two...

"What is remarkable...is how this [Card and Kruger's] rather iffy result has been seized upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage increases a core component of the liberal agenda.... Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price of labor--unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments--can be set based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without unpleasant side effects." - Paul Krugman

Krugman Contra Krugman on the Minimum Wage?
Surely it's sufficient that the unpleasant side effects be outweighed by the pleasant effects.

Such side effects need not be absent for it to be a good idea.

Noting that it's not likely we would have full employment under any of the possible values for minimum wage.
Certainly. I'm not against a minimum wage. I'm against being religious about it; I'm against self-congratulation as social policy; I'm against ITUC et al's self-delusion that it isn't a trade-off of pleasant effects for the workers who keep their jobs against unpleasant side-effects for the ones who don't. It's one thing to feel that the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few; it's quite another to feel that since we're the good guys and well-meaning and full of benevolence to the poor, it follows that whatever we've decided on must not be hurting any of them.

The minimum wage is just another tool in the tool box of public policy. There are some problems it's good for and some that it isn't. Like everything else in the economy, it's subject to the law of diminishing returns. The lower it is at any given time, the more an increase will help the beneficiaries and the less damage it will do to those who get hurt. But as it goes higher, fewer people will get the pleasant effects from further increases while more people will get the unpleasant side effects. So there's an optimal level. And neither ideological gobbledygook about "living wages" and whether businesses have a right to exist, nor willful blindness to the plight of those on the receiving end of the unpleasant side effects, are helpful for figuring out what level is optimal.
 
Make that two...

"What is remarkable...is how this [Card and Kruger's] rather iffy result has been seized upon by some liberals as a rationale for making large minimum wage increases a core component of the liberal agenda.... Clearly these advocates very much want to believe that the price of labor--unlike that of gasoline, or Manhattan apartments--can be set based on considerations of justice, not supply and demand, without unpleasant side effects." - Paul Krugman

Krugman Contra Krugman on the Minimum Wage?
That article is poorly reasoned. and a hack job. There is no contradiction between being skeptical about or against large increases in the minimum wage and supporting small increases. Moroever, trotting a statement from 1988 before the current research on the effects of the minimum wage were made is just effing intellectually dishonest - compelling new information ought to change someone's mind.
You misread that -- his statement was from 1998, not 1988. The article quoted Krugman addressing the research we're discussing, not statements he made before he became aware of it. And Krugman hasn't just supported small increases; he's argued for a $15/hour minimum wage. As for current research, here's some. The compelling new information mostly supports Krugman's 1998 contention.
 
This bizarre idea that "everyone has to work" is surprisingly hard to kill.
It's never been true; Society has always supported fairly large numbers of unproductive people, often in luxury - aristocrats, priests, children, old people, the sick, injured, and disabled, all have been provided for beyond their personal contributions in the past, and we are better able to provide for them (and for others) today, than ever before.
...
Automation should massively increase leisure and wealth across society, not just for a tiny handful of multibillionaires.
We can afford to support a large number of unemployed people in some degree of comfort.
...
Freeloaders were a problem in a society that had real and life threatening shortages. We don't live in such a society, and we need to stop acting as though we do.
I.e., we value people because they're people, not because they work. We keep them alive and in some degree of comfort because we're nice and we care about them, not because we want them to do something for us.

And yet, in spite of this rather obvious reality, for some reason the delusion persists among economic creationists that since a person is worth $30,000 a year, it magically follows that his labor is worth $30,000 a year.
 
And Krugman hasn't just supported small increases; he's argued for a $15/hour minimum wage.
That may be a large increase from your pathetic current level, but it's not a particularly large value for a minimum wage - it's in the same ballpark as the current Australian minimum, which is around US$15.14 at today's exchange rate (AU$20.33).
 
Min wage was not intended to provide a living wage. It was about providing a wage floor to give some protection to workers.
The zombie bodies of Eugene V. Debs, Samuel Gompers, and William Jennings Bryan just walked by and went "BLARUGHGHHGH" which is zombie for "What are you talking about?!" If it isn't a "living wage", what the heck is it?! The male used to be the only wage earner... so if that wage isn't enough for a family to live on... what in the heck is the point?!
The point is the same as the point of picket lines -- if it comes to it, the same as the point of beating up scabs. The point is to improve the standard of living of a subset of the workers, by increasing the total wages negotiated from the employers, by not leaving money on the table, by moving across the supply-and-demand chart from the competitive price/quantity point to the monopoly price/quantity point, by reducing the amount of labor that's hired, by limiting the supply of labor, by convincing some of the workers to agree not to compete for a share of those wages with the workers who will be getting an increased wage, because competing would weaken the negotiation against the employers. The point is to get the worst-off workers to sacrifice their own standard of living for the sake of the standard of living of better-off workers. The point has nothing to do with "living wage" philosophy and everything to do with game theory.

My problem is that the low wages... the taxpayers are subsidizing the food, housing, and health care of those low wage workers. IE, WE (notice, bold, italic, and underlined!) are subsidizing the substandard wages of the corporations.
So your theory is that when somebody has so little to trade that he needs to trade all he has to trade away in a year in exchange for less than what he needs in a year, then anybody who benevolently saves his life and his wellbeing by making up the shortfall for him is therefore automatically subsidizing, not him, but rather the person who trades him part of his needs for all he can offer in exchange? And this metaphysical transference of the target of subsidy offends your moral sensibilities to the point where you feel the government should ban him and his trading partner from making the trade at all unless the other party volunteers to accept however little he has to trade in a year in exchange for a full year of his needs?

Because if that's your metaphysical theory and that's your moral theory, then your metaphysical theory would imply when a guy can't work and has nothing to trade in a year except the dividends from the stock he inherited, and it's only enough to let him buy food for four months, that the food stamps the rest of us give him so he can eat for another eight months are a subsidy not to him but to his grocer. And your moral theory would imply that it's immoral for WE to have to subsidize the substandard food deliveries of the grocer, so therefore WE should instead compel the grocer to choose between feeding the guy for eight months at her own expense or else not selling him any food at all.

Do you in fact think grocers should be expected to feed the poor all they need regardless of how little they're paid, and should not get reimbursed for that food by a food stamp program?

If you want to argue that that's different, and society pushing the whole bill for our collective charity onto one designated individual is virtuous when she's an employer but not when she's a grocer, feel free to post whichever special-pleading fallacy you think justifies making that distinction.

(Note for those reading casually: this is not an argument against a minimum wage -- a minimum wage can be defended independently on utilitarian grounds, as bilby did in post #48. This is an argument against the religious faith that is "living wage" ideology.)
 
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