How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[bilby]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

Tactical nukes would be an admission of defeat, and would make re-taking the territory that they're now losing more difficult, not easier.

Tactical nukes are blocking weapons; Good to stop a much stronger enemy from overwhelming your defences, but pretty useless for any other purpose.

Nukes might prevent his total defeat, but they wouldn't get him a victory; And I very much hope that 'catastrophic' consequences means direct nuclear retaliation, and that this has been spelled out very clearly indeed.

Use of nuclear weapons should be deterred by the threat of a nuclear response. And that deterrence depends on making it very clear that the retaliatory response is unavoidable and automatic, that first use of nukes will preclude any negotiations or discussions prior to the execution of a retaliatory strike, ideally one that targeted Putin directly and personally.

If you order a nuclear first strike in the morning, whether you're Putin, or Kim, or Biden, or Xi, or indeed any other national leader, you should be in no doubt that by the evening, your location, or at the very least, your home(s), will be a smoking radioactive crater.

It's the duty of those nations that have nuclear weapons, to make this consequence inevitable for any other nation that is similarly armed. Anything less is far too risky.

 

[Copernicus]

...Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

I don't know how well you understand the history or culture of that area, but you may be confusing Ukraine with the way the British Empire was dismantled by British bureaucrats. The British really did make some astoundingly bad decisions about how to bundle countries together as they created nations out of whole cloth.

Ukraine's borders were established within the Soviet Union as a Soviet Socialist Republic that was distinct from, and theoretically equal to, the Russian SSR. Ukrainian (along with Russian) was an official language of the Ukrainian SSR, although the language had been suppressed by the tsarist regime. Ukraine had it's own seat in the UN. Crimea was historically a somewhat autonomous region of the Turkish Ottoman Empire until it was conquered by Russia, but it was added to Ukraine by the Soviet Union over half a century ago. It is really meaningless to claim that Ukraine is any more artificial than all of the other countries in Europe, if you know anything about European history. Ukraine was part of the Polish Lithuanian Commonwealth for a longer period of time than it was ever dominated by Russia. Ukrainians have a history of rebelling against Russian rule over their territories.

 

[Jayjay]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

I don't know about that. I think he's not going to use nukes, if it looks like he can win a conventional war.

To me it was clear since April or May that Russia would have to mobilize in order to win. I was almost sure that Putin would call for mobilization in the May 9th victory day speech. But he didn't, and dragged on the decision to do the obvious until September. I think it might be the same way with nuclear weapons. He will use them only if the mobilization doesn't work. But it'll take some time to find out. Until then I expect nuclear threats to continue and to become even harsher, if possible.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Putin yesterday had a speech to the nation. Konstantin Kisin translates.

I think it's Putin grasping at straws. It's all just standard patriotic political bullshit.

 

[zorq]

Putin yesterday had a speech to the nation. Konstantin Kisin translates.

I think it's Putin grasping at straws. It's all just standard patriotic political bullshit.

I appreciate the paraphrased translation of the speech, but this Kisin fellow is taking Putin at his word as if the ex-KGB agent were incapable of lies and deception. It sounds like so much bullshit and calculated propaganda to me.

Even if this was an honest depiction of Putin's motivations and intentions, it still doesn't ACTUALLY explain or excuse Russia's attack on Ukraine.

 

[SLD]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

I don't know about that. I think he's not going to use nukes, if it looks like he can win a conventional war.

To me it was clear since April or May that Russia would have to mobilize in order to win. I was almost sure that Putin would call for mobilization in the May 9th victory day speech. But he didn't, and dragged on the decision to do the obvious until September. I think it might be the same way with nuclear weapons. He will use them only if the mobilization doesn't work. But it'll take some time to find out. Until then I expect nuclear threats to continue and to become even harsher, if possible.

He can’t win conventionally! His mobilization is already failing. His troops don’t want to go there, arming and sending a bunch more people who don’t want to go there won’t help, and will likely backfire.

The real question is whether the military will obey such an insane order. Hitler had plenty of generals who were willing to oust him and kill him. They just never went through with it. There’s bound to be numerous military leaders who are sick of rasPutin and thinking of how to get rid of him. I believe the professionals also despise his henchman, Viktor Zolotov, the head of the National Guard.

 

[DrZoidberg]

Putin yesterday had a speech to the nation. Konstantin Kisin translates.

I think it's Putin grasping at straws. It's all just standard patriotic political bullshit.

I appreciate the paraphrased translation of the speech, but this Kisin fellow is taking Putin at his word as if the ex-KGB agent were incapable of lies and deception. It sounds like so much bullshit and calculated propaganda to me.

Even if this was an honest depiction of Putin's motivations and intentions, it still doesn't ACTUALLY explain or excuse Russia's attack on Ukraine.

I think it's an accurate depiction of the speech. Kisin has a good track record.

But I don't understand what makes you think Kisin believes Putin? Kisin is simply retelling what Putin said. He's not arguing that it's a good speech.

Kisin clearly believes Putin is an imperialistic lunatic who has to be stopped

Kisin has done a good job of explaining the Russian mindset. They've basically been fucked over so many times by life that they've stopped believing what anyone in power says. The ultimate relativists. Russians care about what money they are personally getting.

 

[Jayjay]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

I don't know about that. I think he's not going to use nukes, if it looks like he can win a conventional war.

To me it was clear since April or May that Russia would have to mobilize in order to win. I was almost sure that Putin would call for mobilization in the May 9th victory day speech. But he didn't, and dragged on the decision to do the obvious until September. I think it might be the same way with nuclear weapons. He will use them only if the mobilization doesn't work. But it'll take some time to find out. Until then I expect nuclear threats to continue and to become even harsher, if possible.

He can’t win conventionally! His mobilization is already failing. His troops don’t want to go there, arming and sending a bunch more people who don’t want to go there won’t help, and will likely backfire.

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion yet. Russia can throw over a million people to the front, and has still plenty of tanks, ammunition, and artillery pieces to go with it.

In any case, it's not a question of what you or I think about the situation, it's whether Putin has a reason to think he might still be able to win without nuclear weapons. And clearly he's made some colossal mistakes in the past.

The real question is whether the military will obey such an insane order.

Also, it might be that the generals are misleading him to think that a conventional victory is possible precisely because of that reason: because they know that if they tell Putin that he can't win without nukes, then they'll be ordered to use nukes. So they say that it's not the time yet, and are dragging their feet, hoping situation on the ground changes, or that Putin changes his mind.

 

[steve_bank]

Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

I think the bigger player is human ignorance and stupidity. Historical cultural issues are small potatoes, or certainly ought to be. And it might just be about greed and resources, not historical cultural issues.

As for Lyman, some articles have Russian troops surrounded and other articles have them withdrawing. I'm not sure which is more accurate.

I disagree. It is alwys about culture and ethnicity.

Kurds in Turkey and Iraq. Pakistan vs India, Hindu vs Muslim. Iran vs Saudi Arabia, Muslim vs different Muslim.

Whn I walk down to Chinatwon it c be like another word in some places. Generationaly some cling to a Chinese cultural identity traced back to China. Not a criticism an observation.

For Putin it is al about culture and idenity.

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected. It was an open questin as to whether ethnic Russians would oppose or support Russian inervention.

Not unwxpectedly there is also a relgious asect. The head of the Russian orthdox chorch is a Putin supporter and a nationalist. There is a cultural divide on reilgion.

It is all about idenity. Everybody wants a undue identity separate form others. For Putin it is all about cultural idenity.

 

[Jayjay]

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected.

Just a side note, but Zelensky got 75% in the 2019 election. In most countries that would be considered a landslide.

You might be thinking of his approval ratings that were below 30% before the war.

 

[steve_bank]

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected.

Just a side note, but Zelensky got 75% in the 2019 election. In most countries that would be considered a landslide.

You might be thinking of his approval ratings that were below 30% before the war.

ok, I should have fact checked.

 

[steve_bank]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

I don't know about that. I think he's not going to use nukes, if it looks like he can win a conventional war.

To me it was clear since April or May that Russia would have to mobilize in order to win. I was almost sure that Putin would call for mobilization in the May 9th victory day speech. But he didn't, and dragged on the decision to do the obvious until September. I think it might be the same way with nuclear weapons. He will use them only if the mobilization doesn't work. But it'll take some time to find out. Until then I expect nuclear threats to continue and to become even harsher, if possible.

In what way should Crimea have been considered part of Ukraine during the split from Russia?

Crimea - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence in 1991 most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Republic of Crimea,[30][31] although in 1995 the Republic was forcibly abolished by Ukraine with the Autonomous Republic of Crimea established firmly under Ukrainian authority.[32] A 1997 treaty partitioned the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, allowing Russia to continue basing its fleet in Sevastopol, with the lease extended in 2010.

The issues are not allt hat simple. The agreement gave Russia a miltary toe hold in Crimea.

When the Brits left India the Hindus and Muslms were ate each other's throats. Pakistan ans d India have been fighting over Kasmir for how long?

The cultural; roots of the Ukraine War is no different than any other conflict.

The Israelis claim a right to be the sole controller of Jerulem and holy sites, based on a 2000 tear old historical justification.

Netanyahu claimed publicly a biblical and historical right to seize Palestinian land as Israel pleases.

Ukrainee is the same old story, the problem in this case is the obvious global consequences. No one in the west is going to supprt a Paestiian uprising and war of independence..

 

[bilby]

No one in the west is going to supprt a Paestiian uprising and war of independence

That's true only if by 'west' you mean 'Americas'. Plenty of European nations would support such a war.

 

[Ford]

Russian troops have pulled out of the city of Lyman in eastern Ukraine, according to a statement from the Russia’s defense ministry. It said its troops were withdrawn after the “threat of encirclement.” Ukraine forces on Saturday surrounded and entered the eastern city, where Russia’s forces had more than 5,000 soldiers.

Yeah, and in response, Ramzan Kadyrov said that Russia should use tactical nuclear weapons. Medvedev also mentioned using them to defend Russian territory, which now includes Lyman, from conventional attack. They are pressuring rasPutin to do it. If he doesn’t he appears weak and endangers his position at home. The U.S. is threatening “catastrophic” consequences, but what is that? He may figure he can outlast any such “catastrophic sanctions.” If nukes get him his victory and he can march into Kiev, he can basically outlast Western sanctions while waiting for a Trump victory. I say he will go nuclear by the end of October.

I don't know about that. I think he's not going to use nukes, if it looks like he can win a conventional war.

To me it was clear since April or May that Russia would have to mobilize in order to win. I was almost sure that Putin would call for mobilization in the May 9th victory day speech. But he didn't, and dragged on the decision to do the obvious until September. I think it might be the same way with nuclear weapons. He will use them only if the mobilization doesn't work. But it'll take some time to find out. Until then I expect nuclear threats to continue and to become even harsher, if possible.

In what way should Crimea have been considered part of Ukraine during the split from Russia?

Crimea - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and Ukrainian independence in 1991 most of the peninsula was reorganized as the Republic of Crimea,[30][31] although in 1995 the Republic was forcibly abolished by Ukraine with the Autonomous Republic of Crimea established firmly under Ukrainian authority.[32] A 1997 treaty partitioned the Soviet Black Sea Fleet, allowing Russia to continue basing its fleet in Sevastopol, with the lease extended in 2010.

The issues are not allt hat simple. The agreement gave Russia a miltary toe hold in Crimea.

When the Brits left India the Hindus and Muslms were ate each other's throats. Pakistan ans d India have been fighting over Kasmir for how long?

The cultural; roots of the Ukraine War is no different than any other conflict.

The Israelis claim a right to be the sole controller of Jerulem and holy sites, based on a 2000 tear old historical justification.

Netanyahu claimed publicly a biblical and historical right to seize Palestinian land as Israel pleases.

Ukrainee is the same old story, the problem in this case is the obvious global consequences. No one in the west is going to supprt a Paestiian uprising and war of independence..

Yes, the situation in Crimea is complicated. If we were to go by the original agreement, it should be an independent republic. Independent of both Russia and Ukraine. Yet the 2014 "referendum" under which it was annexed by Russia was clearly a sham. Russia's invasion of the provinces in eastern Ukraine are simple land grabs by Russia, and anyone who thinks otherwise is either not paying attention or is a stooge for Putin. His attempt to annex the entirety of Ukraine by force? I think it's pretty clear what the people of Ukraine feel about that. It is wrong by any measure.

As for Israel and Palestine as it relates to the Ukraine/Russia war? Apologists for Israel would argue - just like apologists for Russia - that any land they can take by hook or crook belongs to them. Might makes right, and if the people who live there don't like "Greater Israel," they can just move.

A huge part of the problem is the way the UN is organized. Israel can act with impunity in the ever-increasing occupied territories (or as they'd define them, "Israel") because the US is in their corner. Russia has gotten away with quite a lot because of their permanent seat on the Security Council, and if they were to be somehow removed from it, China would act as a backstop preventing any broader actions against them for their land grabs.

While we're on the subject, why is Russia still a permanent member of the Security Council, again? They occupy the seat of a country that ceased to exist 3 decades ago, and in the last six months has been shown to be not only in opposition to what the UN ostensibly stands for, but also a hobbled shell of the country that took up the mantle of the former Soviet Union in 1991 that's headed towards being even more pathetic and an international pariah. Hardly the peer of the other permanent members.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I remember when barbos claimed outrage at the fact that Ukraine was imposing the Ukrainian language in areas where Russian was dominant. I took the position that the Ukrainian behavior (besides being explicitly prohibited by their constitution) was simply bad policy, no matter what country engages in it. Multilingual countries exist everywhere and can be perfectly stable. But it was not an excuse for a foreign power to invade on the pretense of helping out those who resisted. What Russians really want is the same policy that they imposed on people in foreign territories that they occupied in the past--forcing Russian on those people.

Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian​

There is an earlier post on this.

There were long standing issues of language, education, and autonomy in the ethnic Russian areas.

Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

You realize Stalin killed a lot of Ukrainians and replaced them with Russians?

 

[Copernicus]

I remember when barbos claimed outrage at the fact that Ukraine was imposing the Ukrainian language in areas where Russian was dominant. I took the position that the Ukrainian behavior (besides being explicitly prohibited by their constitution) was simply bad policy, no matter what country engages in it. Multilingual countries exist everywhere and can be perfectly stable. But it was not an excuse for a foreign power to invade on the pretense of helping out those who resisted. What Russians really want is the same policy that they imposed on people in foreign territories that they occupied in the past--forcing Russian on those people.

Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian​

There is an earlier post on this.

There were long standing issues of language, education, and autonomy in the ethnic Russian areas.

Ukraine is an example of lines drawn on a map without regard for historical cultural issues.

You realize Stalin killed a lot of Ukrainians and replaced them with Russians?

Right, and the process of moving Russians into occupied territories was also carried on in the tsarist empire. Stalin, of course, stood out for his brutal oppression, mass murders, deporting masses of people from their homeland (e.g. the Tatars in Crimea), and rearranging the borders of countries. He shifted Poland west and north into German territory, while ceding parts of Poland to Belarus and Ukraine. He moved large populations of ethnic Russians into the Baltic states on the pretense of rebuilding them, and now Putin sees their descendants as giving him the right to interfere in their internal politics. There simply is no clear basis for assuming that national boundaries are a matter of the ethnicity of populations that live within those boundaries. Just because someone's ancestors came from Russia and Russian is their dominant language, that does not mean that they want to become Russian citizens. A lot of Ukrainians who were pro-Russia in the past have now had several months of Russian occupation to help them reconsider their opinions and attitudes about Russia.

 

[Harry Bosch]

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected.

Just a side note, but Zelensky got 75% in the 2019 election. In most countries that would be considered a landslide.

You might be thinking of his approval ratings that were below 30% before the war.

ok, I should have fact checked.

Sorry, that was probably my bad. I think that I was referring to the previous election.

 

[Patooka]

Wow, Russia is really scraping at the bottom of the barrel if their "support" comprises of a twice convicted child sex offender.



"People say that I am Putin's puppet, a Russian propagandist, that I don't know what I'm talking about and no one listens to me."

Hate to say it Soctty, people stopped listening to you when it become public you're the type of soldier Matt Gaetz fantasizes about.

 

[lpetrich]

Russia withdraws troops after Ukraine encircles key city - Lyman
So the Russians there decided against doing another Stalingrad last stand.

Illia Ponomarenko on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops have entered Lyman https:/(vid link)" / Twitter

ZMiST on Twitter: "Ukrainian forces are clearing Lyman. (vid link)" / Twitter

CaucasusWarReport on Twitter: "Russian flags thrown off from administrative buildings (including the unrecognized DNR flag) by Ukrainian fighters in Lyman city. (pic link)" / Twitter

Giorgi Revishvili on Twitter: "Ukrainian defenders in the office of the Head of Russian occupation regime, Denys Pushilin in liberated Lyman (vid link)" / Twitter

kriszta satori on Twitter: "A report from Lyman, Donetsk region, with a strong graphic warning:" / Twitter
noting
Paul Ronzheimer on Twitter: "Our Video-Report for @bild from inside Lyman, where we saw a lot of dead russian soldiers on the street, destruction everywhere - and a woman who kissed the soil „because its ukrainian!“ Watch Or read: (links)" / Twitter - reporter speaking German
noting
Ukraine-Krieg: BILD im befreiten Lyman. Die toten Soldaten liegen noch auf der Straße | Politik | BILD.de - "The dead Russian soldiers are still lying on the street"
Article in German: I translated it by copy-pasting into Google Translate.

Russia's military leadership must be very embarrassed.
Kremlin changes commander of Western military district for fifth time in five months - Euromaidan Press

Julia Davis on Twitter: "Reality sneaks up onto unsuspecting Russian state TV hosts. One pundit reveals they aren't supposed to mention Lyman (although the host denies it). He says that everyone knows things aren't going well for the Russian troops. Another pundit says Kyiv might start bombing Moscow. (vid link)" / Twitter
then
Barry R McCaffrey on Twitter: "Russian State TV starting to fragment. Lyman a disaster for the Russians. The Kherson pocket could lose 15,000 Russian prisoners. The mobilization a disaster. All pressures on Putin criminal action might generate a desperate reaction. He’s unraveling." / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

More on the fall of Lyman.
Christo Grozev on Twitter: "And this is already confirmed also by Russian militant channels ("Whatever promises there were to send us reinforcements never materialized". So Lyman is in Ukrainian hands." / Twitter
then
Angry Staffer on Twitter: "That’s huge.
Lyman was an important logistical hub for the Russians. This opens up a clear path to both Kreminna and Severodonetsk" / Twitter

Kremlin changes commander of Western military district for fifth time in five months - Euromaidan Press
notes
Russia Has Changed the Commander of the Western Military District for the Fifth Time | Defense Express - five times in five months.

What is going on behind the scenes? A lot of blaming of each other?

"You didn't resupply us! We had no choice but to leave!"

"You are wimps! You didn't do a last stand and tie up the Ukrainians there!"

"We didn't want to do another Stalingrad!"