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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

If the mobilization works out for Putin, then there's no need for nukes.
I suppose it's how one defines "works out." It's obvious to me Poostain will never use nukes. He's going to do what he did with the pipelines, those kinds of things. The question is what will NATO do, what will "work out" for NATO given these provocations.

I see Ukraine continuing to make gains in the east and despite damage to their infrastructure as revenge. At some point those revenge attacks may provoke a response but it depends on how well Ukraine is doing militarily. How well Ukraine does militarily defines everything else and is why we have to continue to arm and support them however we can.
Militarily, Ukraine will lose unless the west can accelerate it's weapons deliveries and training.

And even if Ukraine has some limited gains, it just brings the nuclear gambit closer. To avoid that Ukraine needs to make massive gains or destroy Russian forces so utterly, that not even nukes can help Russia.

I don't think Ukraine can win, unless Russia implodes from within due to mobilizations and the economy. Which I don't think is very likely. Other countries like Venezuela or Iran have had it much worse and their autocrats are able to hang on to power just fine.

Personally I'm most interested to see if Ukraine can take back Kherson city and the right bank of Dnipro.
Man, you really don’t get war. It’s not a matter of sheer numbers, especially of simply men with guns. Ukraine is fighting for its survival with motivated troops. Its biggest supplier of armor is Russia, because they just abandon their vehicles. Ukraine can take Kherson, and if they do, the Russian military will suffer a deep psychological blow, and likely never recover. I wonder if they’ll just turn on their commanders at that point.
 
The quality of medical care in Russia and the Russian army is another question.


A wife and husband from Maryland have been charged with conspiring to provide the Russian government with personal medical records from the US government and military, according to a newly unsealed federal indictment.


Anna Gabrielian, an anesthesiologist practicing in Baltimore, along with her husband, Jamie Lee Henry, a major and doctor in the US Army, allegedly provided “individually identifiable health information,” which is protected under federal law, to an FBI undercover agent posing as a Russian government employee.


Both Gabrielian and Henry were arrested Thursday morning, according to the US Attorney’s office in the District of Maryland. After appearing in court, they were released on home detention with 24/7 location monitoring. Gabrielian also has a $500,000 unsecured bond.


According to the indictment, Gabrielian was contacted by the undercover agent – who claimed to be an employee of the Russian embassy – in August, after Gabrielian had reached out to the Russian embassy to offer her and her husband’s assistance to the Russian government several months earlier.


CNN is reaching out to the defendants. No attorneys have been listed in court records.


During a meeting with the undercover agent in a Baltimore hotel, according to the indictment, Gabrielian said she was “motivated by patriotism toward Russia” and wanted to provide assistance even if it meant risking jail time. She also allegedly told the undercover agent that her husband could provide information on how the US military sets up hospitals during war and on training provided to the Ukrainian military, and warned that any information they pulled needed to be “massively important” due to the risk of being uncovered.


In a separate meeting, Henry claimed to have “looked into volunteering to join the Russian Army after the conflict in Ukraine began,” but didn’t have the necessary combat experience, according to the indictment. Henry has a “Secret” level security clearance, the indictment says.


Gabrielian and Henry both suggested that they provide the undercover agent with medical information from members of the US military and their families from Fort Bragg, where Henry was stationed as a staff internist, as well as from the medical institution where Gabrielian worked in Baltimore, the indictment alleges.

Henry, the indictment says, provided to the undercover agent during an August meeting the health records of a US Army officer, Department of Defense employee, and the spouses of three Army veterans, two of whom are deceased. The indictment also alleges that Gabrielian conspired to provide the medical information of “the spouse of a government employee and military veteran.”

Gabrielian also made plans for her, her husband and their children to flee to Turkey and gave a cover story to the undercover agent to explain their communications, according to the indictment.

“I don’t want to end in jail here with my kids being hostages over my head,” she allegedly told the undercover agent.


The Finnish-Russia border has been closed to Russians with tourist visas, curtailing one of the last easily accessible routes to Europe for Russians trying to flee a military mobilization
 
S.L. Kanthan on Twitter: "Putin signs decree recognizing Kherson and Zaporizhzhia as independent states. (Donbass next?)
Ukraine and its masters (US/EU) can cry or blow up pipelines, but these regions are never going back. Make peace or Russia will annex Odessa soon. (pix link)" / Twitter


With scans of the documents. I use this OCR site - i2OCR - Free Online Russian OCR - then Google Translate. I've combined the two decrees together.
УКАЗ

ПРЕЗИДЕНТА РОССИЙСКОЙ ФЕДЕРАЦИИ

О признании Запорожской / Херсонской области

В соответсвии с общепризнанными принципами и нормами международного права, признавая и подтверждая принцип равноправия и самоопределения пародов, закрепленный в Уставе Организации Объединенных Наций, учитывая волеизъявление народа Запорожской / Херсонской области на референдуме, состоявшемся 27 сентября 2022 г. постановляю:

1. Признагь государственный суверенитет и независимость Запорожской / Херсонской области.

2. Настоящий Указ вступает в снду со дя его подписания.

Президент Российской Федераций - В.Путин

Москва, Кремль,
29 сентября 2022 года
№ 685 / 686
The first word is where we get "ukase" from. From Google Translate, unedited:
DECREE

PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

On the recognition of the Zaporozhye / Kherson region

In accordance with the generally recognized principles and norms of international law, recognizing and confirming the principle of equality and self-determination of peoples, enshrined in the Charter of the United Nations, taking into account the will of the people of Zaporizhia / Kherson region at the referendum held on September 27, 2022, I decide:

1. Recognize the state sovereignty and independence of the Zaporozhye / Kherson region.

2. This Decree enters into force upon its signing.

President of the Russian Federation - V. Putin

Moscow Kremlin,
September 29, 2022
No. 685 / 686
Thus making Zaporizhiya and Kherson joined Donetsk and Luhansk.
 
Putin signs decrees to recognize independence of Zaporozhye, Kherson regions - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS - that venerable Soviet news agency has survived the fall of the Soviet Union. Its name is the Russian acronym for "Telegraph Agency of the Soviet Union "

How DPR, LPR, Kherson, Zaporozhye voted for joining Russia - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS

Region"Yes" pctTurnout pctTurnout #Population
Donetsk99.23%97.51%2,131,2074,387,702
Luhansk98.42%94.15%1,662,6072,263,676
Zaporizhia93.11%85.40%541,0931,755,663
Kherson87.05%78.86%571,0011,063,803

 List of Ukrainian oblasts and territories by population
 
Baltic states and Poland close doors to Russian tourists | Reuters
Four of the five European Union countries bordering Russia began turning away Russian tourists at midnight on Monday, saying they should not travel while their country is at war with Ukraine.
That Monday was Sep 19.

Finland to join European neighbours in shutting out Russian tourists | Reuters
Finland said on Thursday it would close its border to Russian tourists at midnight, shutting off the last remaining direct land route to the European Union for them as thousands of Russians seek to avoid conscription into the war in Ukraine.

The government said the move would lead to a significant drop in cross-border traffic after almost 17,000 Russians crossed the border into Finland during the weekend.

"The entry of Russian citizens in tourist purposes into Finland endangers Finland's international relations," Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto told a news conference, explaining that the decision had followed talks with Ukraine and neighbours.

Haavisto said entry for family visits, as well as for work and studies, would still be permitted.
That Thursday was Sep 29.

In one article, I found a picture of a multilingual sign on the Finnish side of the Finland-Russia border. I tracked down this picture:
File:Finnish-Russian border, Paljakka-2.jpg - Wikimedia Commons
I transcribed and translated the text with Google Translate:

Seis - GT Finnish: Stop
(Raised hand)
Stop

Rajavyöhyke - Pääsy ilman lupaa kielletty
GT Finnish: Border zone - Access without permission prohibited

Gränszon - Tillträde utan tillstånd förbjudet
GT Swedish: Border zone - Access without permission prohibited

Grenzzone - Eintritte ohne entsprechende erlaubnis verboten
GT German: Border Zone - Entry prohibited without proper permission

Border zone - No entry without special permit

Пограничная Зона - Въезд без разрешения запрещается
Pogranichnaya Zona - V"yezd bez razresheniya zapreshchayetsya
GT Russian: Border Zone - No entry without permission

English "forbidden", German "verboten" and Swedish "förbjudet" are all inherited Germanic cognates. However, "zone" and its German, Swedish, and Russian counterparts were borrowed from Latin, and in turn from Greek.
 
EU asylum in doubt for Russians fleeing army draft
Google searches on "how to leave Russia" spiked as soon as Russian president Vladimir Putin announced mobilisation of 300,000 reservists on Wednesday (21 September) morning.

Flights from Moscow to Istanbul and Yerevan sold out hours after he spoke, according to Russian flight-booking website Aviasales.

Putin's speech also prompted small anti-war protests in some 15 Russian towns, leading to 109 arrests, according to Russian rights group OVD-Info.

And for its part, the Kremlin declined to rule out closing its borders in the future to stop people leaving. "I can't answer that question," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Wednesday when asked if it might happen.

Kremlin says no decisions taken on border closure amid mobilisation | Reuters

Eurasian Georgia, not American Georgia:
Russian draft dodgers queue at Georgian border | Eurasianet - "Men seeking to avoid being sent to Ukraine are flocking out of the country, and Georgia is one of the few options that doesn’t require an exorbitant air ticket."
As Russians rushed for their country’s exits to avoid conscription into the war in Ukraine, the land border with Georgia turned into an apocalyptic sight, with people rushing to safety in cars, riding bikes and electric scooters, and even on foot.

The line of cars heading southward extended for miles and some reported having to wait for days to get out of Russia.

“It’s like a zombie invasion movie back there,” one young Russian man told Eurasianet, after he came through the checkpoint on a bike on September 26. “We stood there for two days!”
 
I couldn't find anything on Azerbaijan in this context, but I was more successful with Kazakhstan.

Kazakhstan and Georgia welcome Russians fleeing conscription | Financial Times
Kazakhstan struggles to accommodate Russians fleeing war | Reuters
Russians flee to Kazakhstan to avoid call-up for war in Ukraine | Euronews

Georgia and Kazakhstan are getting stuffed with fleeing Russians, with hotels filling up and apartment rents going up like crazy.

'We are not afraid': Russians flee to Mongolia to evade Ukraine mobilisation | Reuters
Russians were forced to queue for hours at the border crossing at Kyakhta in the ethnic Mongol province of Buryatia, but said they had little choice after President Vladimir Putin announced a "partial mobilisation" of 300,000 soldiers aimed at repelling a counter-offensive in Russian occupied Ukraine.

In Soviet days, Mongolia was friendly enough to the Soviet Union to be nicknamed the SU's 16th republic (the SU had 15 of them, roughly like US states, and a 16th republic is thus like a 51st US state).

Nothing on Russians fleeing to China or North Korea, however.
 
Further trouble in Russia’s backyard as recent fighting between allies creates new headache for Putin | Fox News - "Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan border clash one of several disputes inherited from Soviet Union's collapse"
With Russia’s war in Ukraine grabbing most international headlines, another conflict has erupted in the post-Soviet space that has major implications for both Russia and its historic sphere of influence. Nearly 100 people, including 37 civilians and four children, were killed and hundreds more injured in the recent clash at the border between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, another flashpoint, along with Ukraine, in the territory of the former Soviet Union, where Russia historically has tried to exert its influence.

"Russia has prided itself on being acknowledged as a regional security leader, including heading the CSTO (the Collective Security Treaty Organization), a self-styled alternative block to NATO. However, its role has been exposed as symbolic and limited, as it has refused to intervene in live interstate conflicts involving former Soviet states, even when called upon by members to uphold its treaty obligations," Alexander Cooley, professor of political science at Barnard College, told Fox News Digital.
Two ex-Soviet Central Asian "stans", a little to the north of Afghanistan.

In addition to Armenia vs. Azerbaijan.
 
Four treaties on admission of Russia’s new territories to be signed Friday — Kremlin - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS
"The main event will begin at 15:00 in St. George's Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace. There will be a speech by the Russian president, let me stress once again, a major one. The ceremony of signing the documents will follow. Taking part in the event will be the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin, the head of the LPR Leonid Pasechnik, the head of the Zaporozhye Region Yevgeny Balitsky, and the head of the Kherson Region Vladimir Saldo," Peskov said.

"Four agreements will be signed on the admission of new entities to the Russian Federation," he added.

Moscow to view strikes on new territories as act of aggression against Russia — Kremlin - Russian Politics & Diplomacy - TASS

Putin declares annexation of Ukrainian lands in Kremlin ceremony | Reuters
 
Encirclement of Russian force in Ukraine overshadows Putin's annexation | Reuters
The pro-Russian leader in Ukraine's Donetsk province acknowledged his forces had lost full control of Yampil and Dobryshev, villages north and east of the city of Lyman, leaving Moscow's main garrison in northern Donetsk "half-encircled".

...
Pro-Russian military bloggers reported Ukrainian forces had cut off the escape of thousands of Russian troops. Pushilin said one road to Lyman was still open, though he acknowledged it was now under Ukrainian artillery fire.

Ukraine war: Ukrainian forces 'partially surround' strategic city in the east | Euronews
Lyman is located around 160 kilometres southeast of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second-largest city. For months, it has served as a logistics and transport hub anchoring Russian operations in the Donetsk region.

The Institute for the Study of War says that losing the city would be a major blow to Moscow's war effort.

Russian troops encircled at Lyman, Donetsk Oblast - Russian milbloggers - Euromaidan Press
Russian propagandist Aleksandr Kots of Komsomolskaya Pravda reports an “operational encirclement” of the Russian forces near Lyman:

“Unfortunately, the news on Lyman isn’t very good [for Russians]. The city is actually in an operational encirclement. DRGs (Ukrainian saboteur groups, – Ed.) are now getting to the supply road towards Svatove. Part of it is under the control of Ukrainian artillery. Yampil in the morning is actually in the “gray zone” as our [Russian] units had to move away. In Drobysheve, the [Russian] defense line has been broken. The situation in the area of Krasnyi Lyman (Lyman’s Soviet-era name, – Ed.) is critical,” Kots wrote.

The Russian military-linked Telegram channel Dva Mayora calls the situation not an “operational encirclement” but a cauldron using the WWII-times Soviet term for the strategic-level concentration of fully pocketed troops:

“Our [Russian] units are defending Krasny Liman being surrounded. A cauldron. Reinforcements were cut off from the city, couldn’t approach. BARS (the so-called Bars-13 volunteer unit Russian Legion, – Ed.), NM LNR (Russia’s Luhansk colonial army, – Ed.), and the 20th [Guards Combined Arms Army] of the Russian Armed Forces remained in the city.”
 
Mykola Bielieskov on Twitter: "As UA completed ..." / Twitter
As UA completed envelopment of RU forces in Lyman it’s interesting why RU forces there were not allowed to withdraw with fighting when it became evident that RU forces were not able to hold current positions. It seems that political considerations of “no step back” intervened.

UA advances around Lyman were not as swift as in case of Balakliya-Kupyansk offensive operation. So there was ample time to withdraw with fighting if it’s evident that there is no force to hold positions. But political considerations prevailed.

Or RU might have feared that quick withdrawal from northernmost part of Donetsk region around Lyman would not only unhinge new positions on Oskil river left bank but threaten Svatove of Luhansk region. It any case RU positions on Oskil left bank are more untenable now.
What do they want? Some Stalingrad-like last stand?

Would they want that to slow down the Ukrainian army?

Are they willing to accept the cost in soldiers and equipment?
 
Putin says he will use nukes to defend the annexed territory, AKA New Russia.

A rat backed into a corner. It all comes down to whether or not he is bluffing, and who is rally calling the shots. If it the extreme Russian nationalists who knows.

We will find out if the Ukraine arm etners 'New Russia'.
 
Meanwhile, back at the ranch:

Russian Railway Executive Found Shot to Death on His Balcony

A top manager at a company that reportedly transported Russian military equipment for the war in Ukraine has been found dead.

Pavel Pchelnikov, 52, was the director of communications at Digital Logistics, a subsidiary of Russian Railways.

His body was found at 6.30 a.m. local time on Wednesday on the balcony of his apartment in central Moscow, local newspaper Moskovsky Komsomolets reported.

Being friends with Poostain and his war in Ukraine gets more dangerous by the hour, even in Moscow.
 
We will find out if the Ukraine arm etners 'New Russia'.
That's a given. There will be no nukes, just more of the same fighting.
I hope so.

An old Cold War era movie The BedfordIncident.

A US destroyer discovers a Russian sub in territorial waters of a NATO country. He is a rabid anti communist and becomes oobxcessed with tracking the sub.

The sub and the destroyer are in standoff. The crew is tense and ready to launch a waepon. The captain says to a reporter 'All I have to do s sayy fire' and a crewman hearing fire launches a weapon. The sub is destroyed, but as soon as the weapon hit the water the sub launched a nuclear torpedo.
 
And today we start pondering about what we weren't pondering about, as we are suffering from tunnel vision with Ukraine. The worst thing we thought could have would be tactical nuclear from Putin against western assets in response to Ukraine attacking "Russia".

But if these killings in Russia are an indicator of higher power issues, then I start wondering about what happens if Russia falls into a Civil War. I can't imagine it'd be a typical war, but there are people in Russia that want war, there are others that like to hold on to the ridiculous wealth they have. What happens if no one is left at the wheel if things get too heated?

As I've noted, and nations like Finland are saying, the solution to the Russia problem are Russians.
 
Civil war requires weapons. Same problem for Iranian dissenters.
 
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