How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[lpetrich]

Michael MacKay on Twitter: "Ukrainian liberators are advancing on Svatove from Kup'yans'k, along the P-07 highway.
Villages in the west of Luhansk region are coming under Ukrainian control.
The Battle of Kreminna is underway. Russian invaders say they are in as difficult a position as they were at Lyman. (pic link)" / Twitter
Ukr troops are going SE from Kupyansk and NNE from Lyman, heading for Svatove.

NOËL on Twitter: "TORS'KE IS UNDER AFU (pic link)" / Twitter
then
NOËL on Twitter: "Serhiy Cherevaty, spokesman - Eastern Group of the AFU, officially confirmed the liberation of Torske.
"Our troops took Torske, located on the way to Kreminna, they hit the enemy units with artillery, which is trying to gain a foothold in Kreminna and build a defense," he said." / Twitter
Torske is a third of the way to Kreminna from Lyman.

YellowArmBands on Twitter: "Nothing confirmed yet but it looks like AFU is advancing significantly both towards Kreminna AND against the northwest area of Kherson. This is another big BIG day folks. Who is with me in celebrating the AFU today? #SlavaUkraïni" / Twitter

Brady Africk on Twitter: "Today's map updates from @criticalthreats and @TheStudyofWar show that Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast, and back to Kreminna, Luhansk Oblast. (vid link)" / Twitter

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
continued to advance near Lyman taking back full control of Zarichne and Tors’ke.
are pulling back from positions north of these settlements on the east bank of the Zherebets river. (pic link)" / Twitter

From these maps, Ukr is just outside of Kreminna to the SW.

nadinbrzezinski on Twitter: "The Armed Forces of Ukraine moved to advantageous artillery positions and began a massive shelling of Rubizhne, Lysichansk, Kremennaya, Severodonetsk — commander of the 208th regiment of the Russian Armed Forces (pic link)" / Twitter

Rubizhne is to the E of Kreminna, and Lysychansk and Severodonetsk to the SE of Rubizhne.

 

[lpetrich]

There is some strategic value to reconquering NE Ukraine.

raging545 on Twitter: "Acc to Russian accounts Ukrainian forces may be on a major offensive in the NE of Ukraine. They have hit Troits'ke, Podoly from Kup'yans'k, Borova,Svatove,Zarichne, Tors'ke, Kreminna and near Severodonetsk. #Ukraine #Putin #Russia #Ukrainewar #RussianUkrainianWar #Putinswar (pic link)" / Twitter
then
steve from virginia on Twitter: "@raging545 If / when Ukrainians take Troits'ke ..." / Twitter

If / when Ukrainians take Troits'ke the entire Russian supply complex rail and road from north is gone.

Open Railway map: the remaining Russian mainline rail line (in yellow) runs from north of Troits'ke through Starobilsk to Petropavlovsk.

All other Rus' supply runs from the east and south or over roads (w/ Rus having few remaining trucks).

Here's another: Denying railroads to Russians negates their artillery advantage. Road transport limited to truckloads of body bags.

This means there is no need for the Rus to hold Svatove.

I checked on OpenRailwayMap and I found that that is partially correct. Ukraine reconquered all of the Ukrainian part of the line between Urazovo RU, Kupyansk, Svyatohirsk, and Lyman. With the reconquest of Kupyansk, the Kupyansk - Svatove - Severodonetsk line is not much use to the Russian forces. At the rate that the Ukrainians are advancing, they may control this line also before long.

The Russians still have one line through NE Ukraine. It branches off at Shelayevo, a bit N of Urazovo, and goes across the border to Troitske, Starobilsk, and Luhansk.

I said "partially" because the Russians have a rail line that goes just east of Ukraine. At Gukovo is a branch W to Horlivka, and at Rostov on the Don, a branch NW to Donetsk.

Trying to guess where the Ukrainians might go next, if they retake Severodonetsk and Starobilsk, they may end up taking all the rest of northern Luhansk Oblast.

The real prizes in the Donbass, however, are Donetsk and Luhansk, and those may be hard to retake. Luhansk is about 15 kilometers from Russia, and Donetsk 35 km. Between Donetsk and Luhansk are Horlivka and Alchevsk, and Ukraine might want to try to retake those towns first. If they succeed, they may become able to encircle Donetsk, though Luhansk will be more difficult.

 

[zorq]

Ukraine could join NATO....

Show

 

[lpetrich]

Dmitri on Twitter: "The situation in Kreminna is getting heated for the Russians. According to this Russian report, the Svatove-Kreminna highway is under threat.
Going further, if Kreminna falls, this could potentially create a threat of encirclement of Lysyschansk. (links)" / Twitter
and
Dmitri on Twitter: "Girkin with the same opinion. Says Kreminna cannot be surrendered at any cost. (links)" / Twitter


Finally some action near Kherson, though on the northeast end of the Russian occupied zone.

Business Ukraine mag on Twitter: "Reports are mounting of a Russian collapse on the Kherson front, where approximately 25,000 Russian troops are trapped on the right bank of the Dnipro River with bridges across the river partially destroyed and unable to support military vehicles (pic link)" / Twitter

War Mapper on Twitter: "Updates:
continued to advance near Lyman taking back full control of Zarichne and Tors’ke.
are pulling back from positions north of these settlements on the east bank of the Zherebets river. (pic link)" / Twitter

But it's still slow going in Kherson Oblast. The Russians rebuffed a Ukrainian attack elsewhere in it.

-

Sulo Chebinovi on Twitter: "@IAPonomarenko Meanwhile in Georgia (link)" / Twitter
noting
Sulo Chebinovi on Twitter: "Georgian activists protest against russians crossing the Kazbegi/ Verkhnii #Lars border point between the two countries. Near the #Georgia border crossing into #Russia, protesters are playing the #Ukrainian national anthem and trolling the Russians who are leaving. (pix link)" / Twitter

(in English) Russian Deserters, You Are Not Welcome

Путин хуйло - Putin is a dick
(in English) Russia kills!

Диктаторы делают то, что хочет большинство народа. А промытые мозги - результат бездействия самих же россиян. - Dictators do what the majority of the people want. And brainwashed-the result of the inaction of the Russians themselves.

По опросам большинство из вас поддерживает войну. А зачем тогда вы убегаете от неё? - According to the polls, most of you support the war. Why are you running away from it?

Россия веками уничтожала украину и всё украинакое. Это война россии а не только путина. - Russia has been destroying Ukraine and everything Ukrainian for centuries. This is Russia's war, not just Putin's.

(On a Ukrainian flag) Слава Україні! Героям Слава! - Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the heroes!

 

[DrZoidberg]

Here's something I missed. In March China said they'd refuse to sell weapons to Russia. I think that's significant. Usually the dictators of the world stick together. This is great.

China Won't Supply Russia With Military Equipment After U.S. Warnings

The U.S. has voiced concern that Beijing might aid Moscow by sending military equipment.

www.newsweek.com

 

[ZiprHead]

Hotel Kolos, used by Russian military, was destroyed in a missile strike in Oleshky, Kherson region Kherson - Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com

Hotel Kolos, used by Russian military, was destroyed in a missile strike in Oleshky, Kherson region. Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights...

liveuamap.com

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Here's something I missed. In March China said they'd refuse to sell weapons to Russia. I think that's significant. Usually the dictators of the world stick together. This is great.

China Won't Supply Russia With Military Equipment After U.S. Warnings

The U.S. has voiced concern that Beijing might aid Moscow by sending military equipment.

www.newsweek.com

Yes, but Poostain may still be winning the global propaganda war. He frames his Ukraine invasion as the West's war on Russia when it's actually his war on freedom and democracy. And it's his war against democracy both within Russia and outside Russia. Having said that there certainly are big cracks in his lie, and the fact that China will not help him is part of the proof. And Belarus despite its chummy relationship with Poostain is even maintaining a bit of distance.

 

[steve_bank]

You can not trust anything China says. There is a Chinese social aspect. Avoid direct confrontation, sometimes saying yes means we hear you but fuck off. China is our enemy ad does not believe in or abide by what the west considers rules of conduct. They routinely steal intellectual property.

Saw it in a manufacturing company started by Chinese immigrants in San Jose. We'd go down and our VP would make demnds and they would smile and say yes. Happened twice.

Later a manger I knew clued me in. They are saying we understand but no way. No way and we are being polite allowing you to save face.

When dealing with a major Japanese supplier they were endlessly oblique avoiding direct get down to business on a problem . Endless foreplay.

I do not see where Russia is winning a global propaganda war.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's something I missed. In March China said they'd refuse to sell weapons to Russia. I think that's significant. Usually the dictators of the world stick together. This is great.

China Won't Supply Russia With Military Equipment After U.S. Warnings

The U.S. has voiced concern that Beijing might aid Moscow by sending military equipment.

www.newsweek.com

China's taken a strong "how does this benefit China" position. Russia winning helps by them by temporarily getting cheaper energy. Russia losing helps them get cheaper energy for a longer period of time. So China is happy with just sticking with that.

For the West, China sticking with, 'we just want cheap energy' is a bit beneficial in the long term as while it provides Russia with money, it means China thinks this adventure is idiotic.

 

[steve_bank]

As someone pointed out Zelensky barely got elected.

Just a side note, but Zelensky got 75% in the 2019 election. In most countries that would be considered a landslide.

You might be thinking of his approval ratings that were below 30% before the war.

ok, I should have fact checked.

Sorry, that was probably my bad. I think that I was referring to the previous election.

2019 Ukrainian presidential election - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Ukraine - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

In the final roud about 20 million votes were cast.out of a paoulation of about 50 million.

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

 

[Copernicus]

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

How would you count Zelensky himself? His native language is Russian, and he even joked about ethnic Ukrainians in some of his early comedy skits. He is Jewish, but his family in the south central city of Kryvyi Rih spoke Russian. Now he speaks Ukrainian almost all the time, although his accent is not native. As a Russian-speaking Jew, Putin's army must have invaded to liberate him from the oppressive antisemitic Ukrainian Nazis.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

How would you count Zelensky himself? His native language is Russian, and he even joked about ethnic Ukrainians in some of his early comedy skits. He is Jewish, but his family in the south central city of Kryvyi Rih spoke Russian. Now he speaks Ukrainian almost all the time, although his accent is not native. As a Russian-speaking Jew, Putin's army must have invaded to liberate him from the oppressive antisemitic Ukrainian Nazis.

Or it could be that Putin's gushing love of Mother Russia, Ukrainian Nazis, NATO aggression and western plans to destroy Russia are just floats in Putin's propaganda parade meant to distract parade goers from the truth. That truth is that Putin fears western democracy and to be held accountable for his crimes. Makes a lot more sense to me. It's continuing authoritarian corruption, more billions for Putin and his cronies, or a free Russia.

So let's see. If I were the Pootstain I'd be fighting like hell too to protect my criminal enterprise and keep the rule of law as far away from my territory as possible. When clueless sub-literates like Ramzan Kadyrov send their sons die for Pootstain's criminal empire it must warm the cockles of Putin's heart to know he has even Kadyrov fooled to the point that he will send his own sons to their deaths.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[steve_bank]

We kept thinking it we open trade with China, NK, and Russia they will become like us with our values.

So far a wasted effort. All we get for our efforts is getting screwed.

 

[steve_bank]

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

How would you count Zelensky himself? His native language is Russian, and he even joked about ethnic Ukrainians in some of his early comedy skits. He is Jewish, but his family in the south central city of Kryvyi Rih spoke Russian. Now he speaks Ukrainian almost all the time, although his accent is not native. As a Russian-speaking Jew, Putin's army must have invaded to liberate him from the oppressive antisemitic Ukrainian Nazis.

There is no way to know what Zelensky really thinks. After all he is both a comedian and politician, both based on facades.

Propaganda is what it is Ukraine or the USA or Russia. I do want Ukraine to succedd, that doesn't mean I think pre war there were no ethnic issues and conflicts. Ukraine was a work in progress derailed by Putin.

For ne the quetion is how the ethnic Russians voted if they voted at all.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[Ford]

From the wiki page on Ukraine about 17% are ethnic Russian. How did they vote if they did?

How would you count Zelensky himself? His native language is Russian, and he even joked about ethnic Ukrainians in some of his early comedy skits. He is Jewish, but his family in the south central city of Kryvyi Rih spoke Russian. Now he speaks Ukrainian almost all the time, although his accent is not native. As a Russian-speaking Jew, Putin's army must have invaded to liberate him from the oppressive antisemitic Ukrainian Nazis.

There is no way to know what Zelensky really thinks. After all he is both a comedian and politician, both based on facades.

Propaganda is what it is Ukraine or the USA or Russia. I do want Ukraine to succedd, that doesn't mean I think pre war there were no ethnic issues and conflicts. Ukraine was a work in progress derailed by Putin.

Like almost all the former Soviet Republics, Ukraine was rife with corruption. And it is more accurate to say that it was a work in progress BY Putin that got derailed by a comedian. The Kremlin was well on their way to making Kyiv a satellite kleptocracy, and invaded primarily because they were repeatedly failing.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Like almost all the former Soviet Republics, Ukraine was rife with corruption. And it is more accurate to say that it was a work in progress BY Putin that got derailed by a comedian. The Kremlin was well on their way to making Kyiv a satellite kleptocracy, and invaded primarily because they were repeatedly failing.

Putin was hoping to protect and expand his criminal empire. When he saw it was failing he invaded, citing all manner of excuses. Luckily, his ability to surround himself with yes men was so efficient that he was badly misinformed of the potential Ukrainian response to armed invasion. Now he's sucking balls and in desperation hoping the other side caves.

 

[bilby]

There is no way to know what Zelensky really thinks

Sure there is. When Russia first invaded, he was offered asylum and assistance to flee his country by the US. He responded “The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Since then, he has remained in his country, organizing and directing its defence. These are neither the words, nor the actions, of someone who is in his position for selfish personal gain.