How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Toni]

If Russia fears Nato so much, why constantly bully Ukraine? It's Russia that is pushing Ukraine towards the west. Why do bullies always feel that they are the victim?

NATO!=West. Russia was not happy about Ukraine trying to get to EU, mainly because it would cost Russia money. But Russia did nothing to stop it. It's NATO.
Bully here is US. You are bullying everybody including Ukraine.

Russia are just trying to stop poor and penniless Ukraine from becoming an empire.

Yes, at Russia's expense.

Yeah, I hear this limited military action is costing Russia a lot—and may be costing Putin even more.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Or it could be that Putin's gushing love of Mother Russia, Ukrainian Nazis, NATO aggression and western plans to destroy Russia are just floats in Putin's propaganda parade meant to distract parade goers from the truth. That truth is that Putin fears western democracy and to be held accountable for his crimes. Makes a lot more sense to me. It's continuing authoritarian corruption, more billions for Putin and his cronies, or a free Russia.

Autocrats like him usually don't survive the loss of power.

 

[Copernicus]

Good luck to her. I hope that she makes it to safety.

Russian journalist who protested on live television escapes house arrest​

 

[lpetrich]

Finnish city removes last publicly displayed statue of Lenin | AP News

A city in southeastern Finland on Tuesday removed the country’s last publicly displayed statue of Russian revolutionary leader Vladimir Lenin following pressure from residents in the wake of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

A group of construction workers in Kotka, a port city of 52,000 not far from the border with Russia, hoisted the statue into a truck and drove it away to a warehouse of a local museum.

Thus joining the numerous other fallen statues of Communist leaders.

City museum director Kirsi Niku told Finnish public broadcaster YLE that the bronze bust was designed and constructed by Estonian sculptor Matti Varik in the late 1970s on orders from Moscow.

It was presented to Kotka in 1979 as a gift from friendship city Tallinn, then the capital of the Estonian Soviet republic and now the capital of the Baltic nation of Estonia.

Presenting such statues was a common practice by Moscow, particularly in the 1970s and 1980s, to underline the Finnish-Soviet friendship in the post-WWII era.

In Ukraine itself,  Demolition of monuments to Vladimir Lenin in Ukraine - some  De-Leninization
Ленінопад - Leninopad - literally "Leninfall", like "waterfall" and "snowfall". A common Slavic name for an autumn month is "Listopad" ~ "Listapad" ~ "Lystopad" -- literally "leaf-fall".

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine is marching on Kreminna and Svatove.
Dmitri on Twitter: "Russian fighter in Svatove describes the situation in the town, says the majority of civilians have left it. Alleges that Russian units are gathering in Svatove-Starobelsk-Kreminna triangle, for a "possibility of a counter-attack". (links)" / Twitter

raging545 on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops are said to have broken through Russian defensive lines in the vicinity of Kreminna. One report says they are on the outskirts of the city. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Putinswar #UkraineRussiaWa (pic link)" / Twitter


Rod Bishop on Twitter: "The #Ukraine Army are throwing textbook manoeuvres. Rommel or Manstein would be proud. #svatove #Kreminna (pic link)" / Twitter
noting
Rod Bishop on Twitter: "Learn from the #Wehrmacht in 40-42. Don’t throw your best troops at fortified defences which large settlements like #kremmina #lsychansk #Sverodonetsk will have. Encircle them with fast moving pincers & cut supply lines. Head to #svatove cut the P66." / Twitter

Surround them then besiege them. It worked for Lyman.

 

[Jarhyn]

I think a lot

Ukraine is marching on Kreminna and Svatove.
Dmitri on Twitter: "Russian fighter in Svatove describes the situation in the town, says the majority of civilians have left it. Alleges that Russian units are gathering in Svatove-Starobelsk-Kreminna triangle, for a "possibility of a counter-attack". (links)" / Twitter

raging545 on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops are said to have broken through Russian defensive lines in the vicinity of Kreminna. One report says they are on the outskirts of the city. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Putinswar #UkraineRussiaWa (pic link)" / Twitter


Rod Bishop on Twitter: "The #Ukraine Army are throwing textbook manoeuvres. Rommel or Manstein would be proud. #svatove #Kreminna (pic link)" / Twitter
noting
Rod Bishop on Twitter: "Learn from the #Wehrmacht in 40-42. Don’t throw your best troops at fortified defences which large settlements like #kremmina #lsychansk #Sverodonetsk will have. Encircle them with fast moving pincers & cut supply lines. Head to #svatove cut the P66." / Twitter

Surround them then besiege them. It worked for Lyman.

lot of caution is warranted on account of Putin's intents as far as nuclear escalation, especially in a town with few civilians "within Russian borders".

 

[lpetrich]

The Ukrainian army is not only close to Kreminna, but also close to Svatove, further to the north: NOËL on Twitter: "The AFU is within 10 KM of Svatove Let's calmly wait for the news to arrive, but things are progressing very well." / Twitter

On posting pictures and video:
NOËL on Twitter: "A clarification ..." / Twitter

A clarification on why we can share pictures from the front. The front line moves faster than pictures are taken. Why? Because the first mechanized echelon, which breaks through and grinds the enemy, is not allowed to take photos (if something is filmed, it's posted later).

The second, third and other echelons of the infantry, which have already entered the liberated settlements and entrenched themselves, are actively taking photos.

While the second and third echelons take pictures, the first moves 10-15 / 1 day forward to chase the enemy.

So in general: the difference between "the first confirmation" and reality is often a day or 10-15 kilometers of progress. Therefore it is safe for us to publish pictures as we know it will never come from the first echelons, having the hardest duties.

There is also the problem of geolocation metadata, especially information on where and when its media file was recorded. That can be a troublesome giveaway, but that can also be useful as information on their provenance. But it's possible to purge that data.

 

[lpetrich]

Look at who the Russian Army wants as footsoldiers.

• Russian mobilization of Crimean Tatars tantamount to ‘ethnic cleansing,’ official says
• Russia’s draft is targeting Crimean Tatars and other marginalized groups, according to activists. - The New York Times
• ‘A kind of murder’: Putin’s draft targets Crimea’s Tatars – POLITICO
  

  Ukrainian monitoring groups say several thousand draft notices have been distributed in Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula that Russia occupied and annexed from Ukraine in 2014. At least 1,500 draft notices have been handed out in settlements inhabited primarily by Crimean Tatars, a Turkic Muslim minority who opposed Russian annexation and make up about 13 percent of Crimea’s population of 2 million.
  
  The new draftees will join thousands of Ukrainians who have already been called up to fight from Russian-occupied Donetsk and Luhansk in east Ukraine.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Ukraine is marching on Kreminna and Svatove.
Dmitri on Twitter: "Russian fighter in Svatove describes the situation in the town, says the majority of civilians have left it. Alleges that Russian units are gathering in Svatove-Starobelsk-Kreminna triangle, for a "possibility of a counter-attack". (links)" / Twitter

raging545 on Twitter: "Ukrainian troops are said to have broken through Russian defensive lines in the vicinity of Kreminna. One report says they are on the outskirts of the city. #Ukraine #Russia #Putin #Putinswar #UkraineRussiaWa (pic link)" / Twitter


Rod Bishop on Twitter: "The #Ukraine Army are throwing textbook manoeuvres. Rommel or Manstein would be proud. #svatove #Kreminna (pic link)" / Twitter
noting
Rod Bishop on Twitter: "Learn from the #Wehrmacht in 40-42. Don’t throw your best troops at fortified defences which large settlements like #kremmina #lsychansk #Sverodonetsk will have. Encircle them with fast moving pincers & cut supply lines. Head to #svatove cut the P66." / Twitter

Surround them then besiege them. It worked for Lyman.

Well, the Ruskis are fighting with 20th century tactics and some tech. The Ukrainians are waging high tech warfare and modern tactics of fire and maneuver with small units. If the Ruskis are gonna go nuclear they're not going to have good military targets. Gigantic tank formations are a thing of the past.

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine now has some impressive advances near Kherson.

Ukraine regains Kherson villages from Russians - BBC News
Defense of Ukraine on Twitter: "The Ukrainian flag flies again over the village of Davydiv Brid, Kherson region.
The Ukrainian marines are confidently advancing towards the Black Sea
: 35th Marine Brigade. (vid link)" / Twitter

Michael MacKay on Twitter: "The Russian invaders are retreating chaotically and abandoning the north of Kherson region. Ukrainian defenders are chasing them to Beryslav.
Davydiv Brid, Velyka Oleksandrivka, Starosillya and other settlements have been liberated. (pic link)" / Twitter

BlueSauron on Twitter: "Ukrainian SOF liberated the village of Petropavlivka, Kherson Oblast. With the Russians retreating to their new defense lines, other villages in the area will be regained by Ukrainian Forces without any resistance. #Russia #Ukraine (pix link)" / Twitter

Saint Javelin on Twitter: "Novopetrivka in Kherson region. Show this to everyone who supports and justifies russian pseudoreferenda. Are you sure these people voted for joining russia? (vid link)" / Twitter

Siraj Noorani on Twitter: "The Ukrainian Armed Forces return the #Ukrainian flag to its rightful place in the liberated Arkhanhel's'ke, #Kherson region. (vid link)" / Twitter

MilitaryLand.net on Twitter: " 7th Battalion of Ukrainian Volunteer Army raised Ukrainian flag in the center of Velyka Oleksandrivka, #Kherson Oblast. #UkraineRussiaWar (vid link)" / Twitter

Oleh Novikov on Twitter: "Ukrainian armed forces liberated Lyubimivka, Khreshchenivka, Zolota Balka, Bilyaivka, Ukrainka, Velyka Oleksandrivka, Mala Oleksandrivka and Davydiv Brid in the Berislavsky district of the Kherson region – Southern operative command (pic link)" / Twitter

Also advancing to Dudchany on the Dnieper / Dnipro river.

Russian forces retreated about 30 kilometers to the Kherson region, Moscow's official map revealed -

Special Kherson Cat on Twitter: "Russia successfully advances backwards on the Kherson front line (pic link)" / Twitter

 

[lpetrich]

Ukraine war: Liberated town shows human cost of Russia's defeat - BBC News - Lyman, Ukraine

Victory can look desolate.

It does inside the eastern Ukrainian town of Lyman, retaken from the Russians at the weekend. The deserted debris-strewn streets are lined by boarded up or burnt-out buildings. Metal sheeting dangling from smashed roofs is buffeted by the wind. Few civilians venture out. We counted almost as many dogs as people - though the population was around 20,000 before the war.

The handful of civilians we met seem shell-shocked by months of bombardment, and uncertain their ordeal is over.

The only surge of life was a convoy of Ukrainian troops riding high on top of armoured personnel carriers, waving and cheering, as they headed out of town, along a road bordered by pine forest.

They roared past evidence of the human cost of Russia's defeat.

The bodies of five dead Russian soldiers lay near each other, now bloated, and contorted by death, but once somebody's husband or somebody's son.

They were in full uniform, with boots still on, as if they might somehow return to the fight. They appear to have been cut down together as they tried to flee.

Nearby we saw a heap of discarded Russian uniforms, sleeping bags, and ration packs. There was an army backpack with a name written on it. We don't know what became of its owner.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Surround them then besiege them. It worked for Lyman.

They didn't besiege Lyman. Rather, they almost surrounded it but deliberately left one road open--the Russians didn't want to be cut off and retreated--into a shooting gallery.

 

[ZiprHead]

Ukraine war: Crimea beauty queen fined over song

Olga Valeyeva is fined nearly $700 by the Russian authorities and another woman is jailed for 10 days.

www.bbc.com

The Russian authorities in Crimea, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine in 2014, have fined a local beauty queen for singing a Ukrainian song.
Olga Valeyeva was accused of discrediting Russia's military and promoting extremist symbols after a video showed her singing Red Viburnum.
The 19th Century military march is popular among Ukrainian nationalists.
Valeyeva, who said she had been unaware of the song's associations, was fined 40,000 roubles (£609; $684).
A second woman who had sung the song along with her was given 10 days in jail.
Crimea's Russian-installed interior ministry posted a video where the two women publicly apologise for singing the song.

 

[pood]

Everything is nicely imploding for Adolf Putin. Anyone seen comrade Barbos lately?

 

[Patooka]

Everything is nicely imploding for Adolf Putin. Anyone seen comrade Barbos lately?

He's around. He just hasn't posted anything. This is because Barbos doesn't like making claims unless they are verifiable by reputable sources. Say what you will about Barbos, he always shows his receipts.

And before you ask, yes I've been drinking.

 

[ZiprHead]

I think this one may need a little salt for taste.

 

[Jayjay]

I'm guessing they're counting whatever equipment Russians left behind when withdrawing from Lyman and other villages. Some of which may have been counted destroyed already earlier. Ukrainian numbers are more reliable than Russian, but they're still propaganda...

My rule of thumb: Ukraine exaggerates by a factor of 2, Russia by a factor of 10.

 

[steve_bank]

I'm guessing they're counting whatever equipment Russians left behind when withdrawing from Lyman and other villages. Some of which may have been counted destroyed already earlier. Ukrainian numbers are more reliable than Russian, but they're still propaganda...

My rule of thumb: Ukraine exaggerates by a factor of 2, Russia by a factor of 10.

That's a good way to look at it.

 

[ZiprHead]

 

[steve_bank]

I have never been on Twitter.

The Twitter link says disable adblocker and ant tracker software.

They are out to get me.