Merged Chinese balloon raises hackles in US

[Copernicus]

A package hidden at ground level by a spy with a station wagon, can do everything a balloon can do, only cheaper, better, and easier.

Cedric Leighton mentioned line-of-sight signals. Those might not be able to be picked up by ground based detectors, or at least not easily.
So there might be stuff that a balloon would easily pick up but neither satellites (due to atmospheric attenuation) nor ground based "station wagon" stations would.

In any case, I do not think Chinese would send a balloon carrying a huge (it was described as being "three buses" in size) payload just to troll us.

The station wagon idea would not have the same capability to target a wide range of signals from different locations, and it would require human spies to be exposed to arrest and interrogation. The balloon had a "civilian weather research" alibi in place and may have been capable of sending data back to China in real time via a Chinese military satellite. If this was a spy balloon, they had plans to send it over already in place, and the upcoming Blinken visit may have been seen as a way to derail the meeting, which was already being downplayed in the Chinese press before their balloon was discovered over Alaska. They also learned how the US would respond to this kind of provocation, so they probably expected it to be popped eventually. They may also have been testing communication between the balloon and secure communications with it from China. If this was a deliberate provocation, I think that it backfired on them.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If you think it's impossible (or even difficult) for Chinese spies to enter the United States and collect such sigint, then I have some seafront land in the ACT to sell you.

Yeah--the international limit is only 12 miles out. That's within the glide range of a HAHO jumper and our chance of seeing such a jumper is tiny. Trying to keep spies out is hopeless in a free society.

Seriously, this balloon couldn't possibly do anything that isn't easier to do, and already being done, by other means - except rile up the idiots who think aerospace sovereignty is somehow important.

If it could be guided over something like Area 51 it might be able to collect intelligence that couldn't be gotten by other means (it would be 20x closer than any spy satellite), but good luck aiming a balloon! (Yes, Area 51 really exists--it's for experimental aircraft, it has nothing to do with aliens. It's about 50 square miles and abuts the 1,300+ square miles of the Nevada Test Site, you can't get close without being noticed.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

That's a nice opinion, but it's not contrary to my observation that it's easier to gather such sigint using spies on the ground.

A package hidden at ground level by a spy with a station wagon, can do everything a balloon can do, only cheaper, better, and easier.

There's nothing there that contradicts me; Just a bunch of hot air* to justify paranoia about a total non-event.

ICBM silos and strategic bomber bases aren't a secret. What they do is well known. What they could do in wartime, but haven't yet done to keep their capabilities and techniques secret, cannot be detected by balloons, satellites, or spies outside the perimeter fence - for that, you need humint.

You can't always drive said station wagon near some of the military bases in the western United States.

I already mentioned Area 51, the actual base isn't all that big but there's a big no-go area around it, in general extending to the horizon. There are much bigger bases around, although they would be unlikely to be of much interest to spies. Next door to Area 51 is the Nevada Test Site--most of what you'll find there are craters you don't want to enter. A few hundred miles away you'll find China Lake--1,700+ square miles that wouldn't be a good idea to enter as it's used for weapon testing.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

A good question is, how with all the high tech defense spending of the U.S. military did the balloon get to the Dakotas without notice? Supossedly the gondola of this balloon is the size of two buses. Or so the news stories claim. Supposedly, in the past, it has been found that balloons this size are hard to shoot down. Why do we not have missiles that aim not at the balloon, but the gondolas with the equipment?

The balloons are big but they're very, very thin--basically zero radar signature other than whatever it's carrying. They're basically a ginormous plastic bag.

As for shooting at it--I can't find an altitude ceiling for the Sparrow, but the more modern AMRAAM I'm finding a ceiling of 50,000'--and this balloon was above that. A Sidewinder clearly will not track so it's ceiling doesn't matter. That leaves guns as the only option--and the equipment is small.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

If this was a spy balloon, wouldn’t they have painted it sky blue?

They're usually clear plastic.

 

[crazyfingers]

F-22 Safely Shoots Down Chinese Spy Balloon Off South Carolina Coast

A U.S. Air Force fighter safely shot down a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said in a written statement.

www.defense.gov

Chinese spy balloons flew over the continental US three times during the Trump administration.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

CNN is reporting that a single AIM-9X Sidewinder missile took the balloon down.

And how in the world did it track? And that video didn't appear to show an explosion. A Sidewinder is the weapon I would consider least capable against it.

 

[crazyfingers]

And how in the world did it track? And that video didn't appear to show an explosion. A Sidewinder is the weapon I would consider least capable against it.

Don't know but the story above from the DOD also says it was a Sidewinder. I saw one video that appears to show it hitting at the point where the compressor attaches at the bottom of the balloon, separating the payload from the balloon and hitting the balloon at the bottom. Whether the video was a fake or not I don't know.

 

[steve_bank]

Sidewinders are heat seeking missiles.

I would have thought they would have tried to burst the balloon.

The sensing may have changed since I was familiar with them in the 80s. They were designed to sense the heat radiation spectrum of a hot engine. The optics have wavelngth filters to reject clutter and counteneasures.

Don't see how it could lock on to a low temperature object. There has to be a degree of temperature contrast between target and background.

Keep in mid there can be disinformation from our side.

 

[crazyfingers]

And how in the world did it track? And that video didn't appear to show an explosion. A Sidewinder is the weapon I would consider least capable against it.

Sidewinders are heat seeking missiles.

I would have thought they would have tried to burst the balloon.

The sensing may have changed since I was familiar with them in the 80s. They were designed to sense the heat radiation spectrum of a hot engine. The optics have wavelngth filters to reject clutter and counteneasures.

Don't see how it could lock on to a low temperature object. There has to be a degree of temperature contrast between target and background.

Keep in mid there can be disinformation from our side.

Perhaps this capability of the AIM-9X

AIM-9 Sidewinder - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Utilizing the JHMCS, a pilot can point the AIM-9X missile's seeker and "lock on" by simply looking at a target, thereby increasing air combat effectiveness

 

[crazyfingers]

Video shows moment US missile hits Chinese spy balloon | CNN

New video shows the moment a missile fired by a US fighter jet shoots down a suspected Chinese spy balloon.

www.cnn.com

Here is the video I mentioned

 

[Copernicus]

Video shows moment US missile hits Chinese spy balloon | CNN

New video shows the moment a missile fired by a US fighter jet shoots down a suspected Chinese spy balloon.

www.cnn.com

Here is the video I mentioned

It appears that the AIM-9X Sidewinder has a targeting system that allows the pilot to lock onto targets via an imaging capability, especially under conditions where countermeasures are taken to reduce or confuse the heat signature.

See the relevant section at AIM-9 Sidewinder:

AIM-9X

Hughes Electronics was awarded a contract for development of the AIM-9X Sidewinder in 1996 after a competition against Raytheon for the next short-range aerial combat missile, though Raytheon purchased the defense portions of Hughes Electronics the following year. The AIM-9X entered service in November 2003 with the USAF (the lead platform was the F-15C) and the USN (the lead platform was the F/A-18C) and is a substantial upgrade to the Sidewinder family featuring an imaging infrared focal-plane array (FPA) seeker with claimed 90° off-boresight capability, compatibility with helmet-mounted displays such as the new U.S. Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), and a totally new two-axis thrust-vectoring control (TVC) system providing increased turn capability over traditional control surfaces (60Gs). Utilizing the JHMCS, a pilot can point the AIM-9X missile's seeker and "lock on" by simply looking at a target, thereby increasing air combat effectiveness. It retains the same rocket motor, fuze and warhead of the AIM-9M, but its lower drag gives it improved range and speed. The AIM-9X also includes an internal cooling system, eliminating the need for use of launch-rail nitrogen bottles (U.S. Navy and Marines) or internal argon bottles (USAF). It also features an electronic safe and arm device similar to the AMRAAM, allowing for a reduction in minimum range, and reprogrammable infrared Counter Counter Measures (IRCCM) capability that coupled with the FPA provides improved look down into clutter and performance against the latest IRCM. Though not part of the original requirement, the AIM-9X demonstrated potential for lock-on after launch capability, allowing for possible internal use for the F-35, F-22 Raptor and even in a submarine-launched configuration for use against ASW platforms. The AIM-9X has been tested for a surface attack capability, with mixed results.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Picking up the pieces.

The Biden administration’s decision to wait until Saturday to shoot down the balloon has been widely criticized by Republicans, who have described it as an “embarrassing display of weakness” and a “national security failure.”

And if we shot it down over a Republican district they would have complained about that. There's just no winning with these fucking people.


Meanwhile on the front page of Fox News...

 

[crazyfingers]

Video shows moment US missile hits Chinese spy balloon | CNN

New video shows the moment a missile fired by a US fighter jet shoots down a suspected Chinese spy balloon.

www.cnn.com

Here is the video I mentioned

It appears that the AIM-9X Sidewinder has a targeting system that allows the pilot to lock onto targets via an imaging capability, especially under conditions where countermeasures are taken to reduce or confuse the heat signature.

See the relevant section at AIM-9 Sidewinder:

AIM-9X

Hughes Electronics was awarded a contract for development of the AIM-9X Sidewinder in 1996 after a competition against Raytheon for the next short-range aerial combat missile, though Raytheon purchased the defense portions of Hughes Electronics the following year. The AIM-9X entered service in November 2003 with the USAF (the lead platform was the F-15C) and the USN (the lead platform was the F/A-18C) and is a substantial upgrade to the Sidewinder family featuring an imaging infrared focal-plane array (FPA) seeker with claimed 90° off-boresight capability, compatibility with helmet-mounted displays such as the new U.S. Joint Helmet Mounted Cueing System (JHMCS), and a totally new two-axis thrust-vectoring control (TVC) system providing increased turn capability over traditional control surfaces (60Gs). Utilizing the JHMCS, a pilot can point the AIM-9X missile's seeker and "lock on" by simply looking at a target, thereby increasing air combat effectiveness. It retains the same rocket motor, fuze and warhead of the AIM-9M, but its lower drag gives it improved range and speed. The AIM-9X also includes an internal cooling system, eliminating the need for use of launch-rail nitrogen bottles (U.S. Navy and Marines) or internal argon bottles (USAF). It also features an electronic safe and arm device similar to the AMRAAM, allowing for a reduction in minimum range, and reprogrammable infrared Counter Counter Measures (IRCCM) capability that coupled with the FPA provides improved look down into clutter and performance against the latest IRCM. Though not part of the original requirement, the AIM-9X demonstrated potential for lock-on after launch capability, allowing for possible internal use for the F-35, F-22 Raptor and even in a submarine-launched configuration for use against ASW platforms. The AIM-9X has been tested for a surface attack capability, with mixed results.

Yup. I made that point in post #50.

 

[ZiprHead]

Yes, Chinese Spy Balloons Flew Over The U.S. When President Trump Was In Office Too

Talking heads on cable TV were up in arms about the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. But Chinese balloons were flying over the U.S. when former President Donald Trump was in office too.

www.forbes.com

 

[Patooka]

Yes, Chinese Spy Balloons Flew Over The U.S. When President Trump Was In Office Too

Talking heads on cable TV were up in arms about the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. But Chinese balloons were flying over the U.S. when former President Donald Trump was in office too.

www.forbes.com

https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1622029467869667328

Now I don't know who to believe...

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

It is obvious this was going on while Trump was in office. Today's shrieking baboon chorus on the right blaming Biden are, as usual, being stupid. Why under Trump, the U.S. military was not tasked to deal with this is the question long ago? Things like this is the U.S. Airforce's job. GOP politicians sitting on various military watchdog committees did not do their jobs to notice such problems, find out what was going on and finding solutions to such problems. This idea that the GOP and their right winged media baboons can us this to harass Biden is par for the course.

If I was Biden, I would publically remind the American public of these facts and announce a program to wake up the leaders of the USAF to deal with this reoccuring problem. Meanwhile, where were the various state National Guard airforces while such balloons passed unmolested over their respective states? What are we doing paying good tax dollars for them when Chinese balloons roam free at will?

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Sidewinders are heat seeking missiles.

I would have thought they would have tried to burst the balloon.

The sensing may have changed since I was familiar with them in the 80s. They were designed to sense the heat radiation spectrum of a hot engine. The optics have wavelngth filters to reject clutter and counteneasures.

Don't see how it could lock on to a low temperature object. There has to be a degree of temperature contrast between target and background.

Keep in mid there can be disinformation from our side.

Hell, even the old shoulder launched Redeye could lock onto a burning cigarette. And many of these missiles have lateral radar that triggers detonation even if a direct hit doesn't happen.

 

[ZiprHead]

Sidewinders are heat seeking missiles.

I would have thought they would have tried to burst the balloon.

The sensing may have changed since I was familiar with them in the 80s. They were designed to sense the heat radiation spectrum of a hot engine. The optics have wavelngth filters to reject clutter and counteneasures.

Don't see how it could lock on to a low temperature object. There has to be a degree of temperature contrast between target and background.

Keep in mid there can be disinformation from our side.

Hell, even the old shoulder launched Redeye could lock onto a burning cigarette. And many of these missiles have lateral radar that triggers detonation even if a direct hit doesn't happen.

I've noticed in some of the attacks on Russian tank videos that the projectile actually explodes just above the tank.

 

[ZiprHead]

Yes, Chinese Spy Balloons Flew Over The U.S. When President Trump Was In Office Too

Talking heads on cable TV were up in arms about the Chinese spy balloon that was shot down over the Atlantic Ocean on Saturday. But Chinese balloons were flying over the U.S. when former President Donald Trump was in office too.

www.forbes.com

https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1622029467869667328

Now I don't know who to believe...

Either one of them or both of them are lying. My money's on the second.