Merged Chinese balloon raises hackles in US

[Copernicus]

There's no worthwhile sigint a balloon can collect that couldn't be collected by spies on the ground.

If you think it's impossible (or even difficult) for Chinese spies to enter the United States and collect such sigint, then I have some seafront land in the ACT to sell you.

And if you think a balloon helps with the only serious sigint issue in modern espionage - decrypting the messages - then you might also be interested in this nice bridge we have in Sydney Harbour, which I am prepared to let you have at a significant discount.

Seriously, this balloon couldn't possibly do anything that isn't easier to do, and already being done, by other means - except rile up the idiots who think aerospace sovereignty is somehow important.

Right, well, here's a contrary opinion from Peter Layton, a fellow at the Griffith Asia Institute in Australia and former Royal Australian Air Force officer, and other experts:

“Balloon payloads can now weigh less and so the balloons can be smaller, cheaper and easier to launch” than satellites, Layton said.

Blake Herzinger, an expert in Indo-Pacific defense policy at the American Enterprise Institute, said despite their slow speeds, balloons aren’t always easy to spot.

“They’re very low signature and low-to-zero emission, so hard to pick up with traditional situational awareness or surveillance technology,” Herzinger said.

And balloons can do some things that satellites can’t.

“Space-based systems are just as good but they are more predictable in their orbital dynamics,” Layton said.

“An advantage of balloons is that they can be steered using onboard computers to take advantage of winds and they can go up and down to a limited degree. This means they can loiter to a limited extent.

“A satellite can’t loiter and so many are needed to criss-cross an area of interest to maintain surveillance,” he said.

What might it be spying on?​

According to Layton, the suspected Chinese balloon is likely collecting information on US communication systems and radars.

“Some of these systems use extremely high frequencies that are short range, can be absorbed by the atmosphere and being line-of-sight are very directional. It’s possible a balloon might be a better collection platform for such specific technical collection than a satellite,” he said.

Retired US Air Force Col. Cedric Leighton, a CNN military analyst, echoed those thoughts.

“They could be scooping up signals intelligence, in other words, they’re looking at our cell phone traffic, our radio traffic,” Leighton told CNN’s Erin Burnett.

Intelligence data collected by the balloon could be relayed in real time via a satellite link back to China, Layton said.

Analysts also noted that Montana and nearby states are home to US intercontinental ballistic missile silos and strategic bomber bases.

source:

What is a suspected Chinese spy balloon doing above the US?​

That's a nice opinion, but it's not contrary to my observation that it's easier to gather such sigint using spies on the ground.

A package hidden at ground level by a spy with a station wagon, can do everything a balloon can do, only cheaper, better, and easier.

Your knowledge about what is possible in gathering sigint may be far advanced over mine, so I won't try to contradict your musings. I would only point out that the sources in my posted article also have expertise and knowledge in that area, and the news media have not yet interviewed you. So you can blame them for failing to publish your opinion.

The Chinese seem to have settled on a method of intelligence gathering that is way more noticeable than a station wagon, so many people think they wanted the balloon to be noticed just before our Secretary of State visited their country for a highly publicized meeting. The Chinese are complaining now that the US is "overhyping" the balloon, and they are making fun of it in their press. Take that FWIW. The story was obviously always going to produce a huge brouhaha in our news and social media, and the Chinese are smart enough to know that.

There's nothing there that contradicts me; Just a bunch of hot air* to justify paranoia about a total non-event.

ICBM silos and strategic bomber bases aren't a secret. What they do is well known. What they could do in wartime, but haven't yet done to keep their capabilities and techniques secret, cannot be detected by balloons, satellites, or spies outside the perimeter fence - for that, you need humint.

*Useful for balloons

Right. So maybe the Chinese had other motives than pure intelligence gathering to send that balloon over the US at this time? Gathering sigint from military radio signals that are outside the capabilities of satellites is one thing, but it probably wouldn't be their only motive for sending a highly visible balloon over US airspace. Why now? And why a second balloon over Latin America?

ETA: It looks like the US will try to shoot the balloon down over the Atlantic. The balloon was spotted over North Carolina today.

 

[Politesse]

The Chinese are complaining now that the US is "overhyping" the balloon, and they are making fun of it in their press.

Which, of course, we most certainly are... we literally invented the phrase "there's a sucker born every minute".

 

[AthenaAwakened]

US downs Chinese spy balloon over ocean

The FAA has closed airspace in parts of North Carolina and South Carolina.

abc11.com

It's down.

 

[Elixir]

Finally we get to see what it was all about.

 

[Copernicus]

Here is a video of the balloon being shot down:

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

Some reports say it is being recovered, some not. I'll put my money on it being recovered but not being confirmed.

 

[Copernicus]

Some reports say it is being recovered, some not. I'll put my money on it being recovered but not being confirmed.

I think they've announced that they are trying to recover the debris to find out what it was being used for. They can track the debris with radar, and there are resources in place to see what they can get.

 

[Cheerful Charlie]

Biden gave the order, "Shoot it down". And down it went. Now it is over to the Navy to recover the remains.

 

[steve_bank]

The Chinese leaders are voyeurs.

 

[Politesse]

He can put it in the 2024 campaign ads. "Elect Joseph Baloon-Bane! He Gets it Down."

 

[thebeave]

Finally we get to see what it was all about.

There must be two balloons. I heard this was the message:

 

[crazyfingers]

CNN is reporting that a single AIM-9X Sidewinder missile took the balloon down.

 

[T.G.G. Moogly]

It was earlier reported that the electronics had been disabled by the U.S. well prior to it's being shot down. Don't know how they accomplish that.

 

[crazyfingers]

It was earlier reported that the electronics had been disabled by the U.S. well prior to it's being shot down. Don't know how they accomplish that.

I had not seen that detail. If true that should take the wind out of the blowhard Republicans but I'm sure that they will just ignore it.

 

[Patooka]

It was earlier reported that the electronics had been disabled by the U.S. well prior to it's being shot down. Don't know how they accomplish that.

I had not seen that detail. If true that should take the wind out of the blowhard Republicans but I'm sure that they will just ignore it.

Nothing can deflate a bombastic Republican unfortunately.

 

[Ford]

It was earlier reported that the electronics had been disabled by the U.S. well prior to it's being shot down. Don't know how they accomplish that.

I had not seen that detail. If true that should take the wind out of the blowhard Republicans but I'm sure that they will just ignore it.

Nothing can deflate a bombastic Republican unfortunately.

I'm sure they will find something to complain about.

First is was "why isn't Biden ordering it to be shot down?"

Next will be something like "why did Biden wait to order it shot down? Does it have to do with Hunter Biden's Laptop and the CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY?!"

(fyi, the GOP's thing now is to say "Chinese Communist Party" in place of "China" or "the Chinese government." I heard an interview a couple weeks ago from a Republican Congressman, and he did it repeatedly. Dog whistle to the folks in their base who grew up with "duck and cover" drills, probably...)

 

[steve_bank]

If the electronics are not designed to withstand high power electromagnetic interference it is straightforward to disrupt and even damage electronics. Lasers could damage the optics and solar panels.

 

[Patooka]

 

[Derec]

It was earlier reported that the electronics had been disabled by the U.S. well prior to it's being shot down. Don't know how they accomplish that.

Link? One way would be a (non-nuclear, of course) EMP.

 

[Derec]

A package hidden at ground level by a spy with a station wagon, can do everything a balloon can do, only cheaper, better, and easier.

Cedric Leighton mentioned line-of-sight signals. Those might not be able to be picked up by ground based detectors, or at least not easily.
So there might be stuff that a balloon would easily pick up but neither satellites (due to atmospheric attenuation) nor ground based "station wagon" stations would.

In any case, I do not think Chinese would send a balloon carrying a huge (it was described as being "three buses" in size) payload just to troll us.