• Welcome to the Internet Infidels Discussion Board.

Peak Oil

It is just illustrating that the main reason more people don't have amphibious cars is not so much the expense but lack of desire to have one rather than prohibitive cost.

I could go into the system engineering of a complete drive by wire automobile, along with the actuators, redundant position sensors, and required onboard computers to run thing, but you have solved the problem by adding some manual controls.
I do not see the problem. Some cars (obviously not self driving) already have drive-by-wire technology. Having a system where electronic commands to steering, braking etc. actuators come from human operated controls or a computer vs. one where they only come from a computer is not very difficult or expensive. I can definitely see the steering wheel and a set of pedals being sold as a $1000-$2000 option on a new self-driving car, depending on how fancy the actual car is.

It's not a matter of whether it can be done or not. It's a matter of will it be worth the expense to create a system which accommodates self driven cars and human driven cars on the same road. It will be very expensive.
You are mixing two things here. Additional cost of the car where you can choose manual or automatic driving vs. the whole system populated by a mixture of self-driving and manual cars vs. roads only being populated by self-driving cars.
As I said before, the first is not as big an expense as you think. As far as the second, I can see some benefits having only self-driving cars on the roads. However, that would only be possible to even think about if self-driving cars have sufficient market penetration. First self-driving cars will by necessity share the roads with mostly regular cars (whether or not these self-driving cars have manual controls or not) and it will take decades after that to achieve sufficient market penetration to even contemplate banning manual driving.
It's a little more complicated than adding a steering wheel and a set of pedals. We have now passed into the Star Trek phase of the discussion, where blatant technical obstacles to progress are solved by replicators and transporters. Both of which are great ideas, but still need to have the details worked out.
 
I liken fracking to a 50 year old man taking Testosterone and HGH. It forestalls but will not stop eventual decline.
 
It's a little more complicated than adding a steering wheel and a set of pedals. We have now passed into the Star Trek phase of the discussion, where blatant technical obstacles to progress are solved by replicators and transporters. Both of which are great ideas, but still need to have the details worked out.
Star Trek? Drive-by-wire already exists. The expensive addition would be the self-driving system, not the retention of pedals and steering wheels.
Of course you'd have to integrate the two systems but that's hardly a big engineering problem. It's not even turbolift, much less replicators and transporters. More like sliding doors. :)

- - - Updated - - -

I liken fracking to a 50 year old man taking Testosterone and HGH. It forestalls but will not stop eventual decline.
And horizontal drilling is Viagra?;)
 
Star Trek? Drive-by-wire already exists. The expensive addition would be the self-driving system, not the retention of pedals and steering wheels.
Of course you'd have to integrate the two systems but that's hardly a big engineering problem. It's not even turbolift, much less replicators and transporters. More like sliding doors. :)

- - - Updated - - -

)

If it's hardly a big engineering problem, everything should be ready to go by March of this year, maybe October at the latest.
 
If it's hardly a big engineering problem, everything should be ready to go by March of this year, maybe October at the latest.
Jesus Christ, it's like talking to a bronze statue. We definitely got a a failure of communication here.
The big engineering problem is the self-driving system itself. Retaining steering wheel and pedals parallel to a self-driving system (once a production vehicle is ready whenever that is) is trivial as drive-by-wire steering-wheel and pedal systems already exist in production vehicles.
Is that clear enough?
Since self-driving cars have little to do with peak oil I suggest we end this discussion or you can start a new thread if it's still "clear as mud".
 
If it's hardly a big engineering problem, everything should be ready to go by March of this year, maybe October at the latest.
Jesus Christ, it's like talking to a bronze statue. We definitely got a a failure of communication here.
The big engineering problem is the self-driving system itself. Retaining steering wheel and pedals parallel to a self-driving system (once a production vehicle is ready whenever that is) is trivial as drive-by-wire steering-wheel and pedal systems already exist in production vehicles.
Is that clear enough?

I don't know what else to say, except to repeat my previous statements. You do not appear to understand the hardware problems involved in producing a drive by wire car, or the problems of a mixed fleet. You can dismiss any objections by saying, "it's hardly a big engineering problem," but that doesn't actually solve the problem of bringing this idea to production and to the market at a cost which makes mass production a practical matter.
 
It is sort of an analogy of the current infrastructure paradox. We need personal vehicles because our infrastructure is tailored to cars. Mass transit can't compete for individual convenience because there isn't enough. We are now at the point where we don't have room for more cars and we can't afford the mass transit system we need, as long as we keep supporting the car infrastructure.

Mass transit is based on population density.

Self driving cars are a great concept, but mixing autonomous cars and people driven cars is the problem. Is a self driven car to be a dedicated SDC, or will it have a parallel control system which allows the driver to take control whenever desired? Just as we can't afford to have a convenient mass transit system and individual cars at the same time, can we afford the dual control car? Will the expense be worth the utility we receive.

I don't believe we can build a truly self-driving car in the reasonable future. Yes, Google is close--but close the best I think we will do for quite a while. The Google car requires a human driver capable of taking control if there is a problem--and the current technology is not capable of eliminating all the problems.

Under routine driving the computer can do it all but once in a while something will happen. I've had construction zones divert me off the road onto the ground nearby--can Google do that? Can Google follow the directions of a cop directing traffic contrary to the traffic signals?

Or a video clip I saw yesterday--a truck driver deliberately turned off the road into a field despite having a clear road in front of him. It was the right move--the wind was blowing the truck over, it was drive into the field or get flipped. Can Google decide which is the lesser evil? (Sensing the impending rollover would be no problem. Deciding if driving off the road was better is another matter.)
 
I don't know what else to say, except to repeat my previous statements.
Please don't.
You do not appear to understand the hardware problems involved in producing a drive by wire car, or the problems of a mixed fleet.
1. Drive-by-wire already exists. This technology is certainly much further along than the self-driving technology which is at least a decade (and probably more) away from being production ready. And the complexity of those systems lies not with the actual driver inputs (steering wheel, pedals, shifter) but with actuators and sensors which would mostly have to be part of a self-driving car without manual inputs as well. Sorry, but you have not convinced me that keeping manual controls on a self-driving cars would be an expensive option.
2. I already explained to you why mixed fleets are inevitable. It's not feasible to ban all manually driven cars as soon as first self-driving cars go on sale. Thus self-driving cars will by necessity share the roads with regular cars. So that is not an argument against keeping the manual option on a self-driving car.
Only if and when self-driving cars reach a high market penetration can banning non-self-driving cars be even thought about.

You can dismiss any objections by saying, "it's hardly a big engineering problem," but that doesn't actually solve the problem of bringing this idea to production and to the market at a cost which makes mass production a practical matter.
Because it isn't. The technology to use manual controls already exists. I still do not see the problem. Sorry.

P.S.: Moderators, can we split off the self-driving car part of the discussion off? It has nothing to do with peak oil per se.
 
Derec's comments about oil prices seemed similar to arguing that babies are delivered by the stork.

Maybe I'm getting old but at some point after you say "twice 2 is 4" (Dostoyevsky) it gets hard to become clearer.
 
Derec's comments about oil prices seemed similar to arguing that babies are delivered by the stork.

Maybe I'm getting old but at some point after you say "twice 2 is 4" (Dostoyevsky) it gets hard to become clearer.
Ditto.
Perhaps a friendly wager is in order about whether oil will hit $35 or $100 first...
 
While halving the number of drilling rigs (not producing wells mind you!) would be significant it's not a "screeching halt" exactly.
Not to mention, rig activity tumbling due to low prices cause by oversupply is a bit contrary to religious teachings of Peakoilism
The peak-oil idea does not exclude market fluctuations. I don't think that we should start getting complacent about oil. I also don't think that the oil is going to be gone tomorrow -- or anytime soon. But there will be noticeably less and less of it, and the remaining oil will be harder and harder to extract.

I like Cleantech News — Solar, Wind, EV News (#1 Source) | CleanTechnica, and while wind and solar are progressing remarkably as alternatives to fossil fuels, alternative sources of combustible fuels have come along slowly.
 
Believers in the magic market and the incredible wisdom of capitalism assume some kind of replacement for oil will by a miracle arise when the market dictates it.

They are dangerous and driving us quickly over a cliff.

We need to create a renewable and sustainable energy supply. We need to massively move resources towards that goal yesterday. Governments should be thinking of little else.

Germany is one country leading the way. And the US is standing in the way.
 
Derec's comments about oil prices seemed similar to arguing that babies are delivered by the stork.

Maybe I'm getting old but at some point after you say "twice 2 is 4" (Dostoyevsky) it gets hard to become clearer.
Ditto.
Perhaps a friendly wager is in order about whether oil will hit $35 or $100 first...

That's like taking candy from a baby with a stork's foot up its butt.

Basically, if x = the price of oil and y is some number. there is a 50% chance x will get to x+y before it gets to x-y. In this case y for me = about 12 and y for you = 53. Oil has to go up almost 50% before I have a 50% chance of losing.

We'll keep it friendly though
 
Believers in the magic market and the incredible wisdom of capitalism assume some kind of replacement for oil will by a miracle arise when the market dictates it.

They are dangerous and driving us quickly over a cliff.

We need to create a renewable and sustainable energy supply. We need to massively move resources towards that goal yesterday. Governments should be thinking of little else.

Germany is one country leading the way. And the US is standing in the way.

In my experience it's the renewable advocates who are full of hope and fervor that renewables will be cheaper than oil in the oh so near future. You may even find examples here if you look.
 
Self-driving cars? I'll believe it when I see it. In good part from what that video described: it's very easy for present-day automatic-driving systems to get confused by various road features that human drivers have no trouble with.

As to the end of manual driving, that reminds me of Isaac Asimov's short story "Sally", collected in Nightfall and Other Stories. In that story's world, outlawing manual driving provoked a lot of outrage, even though it made driving much safer.

It's also very easy for present-day human drivers to get confused by various road features that automatic-driving systems have no trouble with. Human drivers also get tired; are easily distracted by cell phones; get drunk; make poor judgements about when or to what extent to obey the road rules, speed limits, etc.; and become enraged by minor errors made by other road users.
 
At some point, everybody has probably wondered what kind of driver Yoshke would have been.
 
In my experience it's the renewable advocates who are full of hope and fervor that renewables will be cheaper than oil in the oh so near future. You may even find examples here if you look.
Solar and Wind Energy Start to Win on Price vs. Conventional Fuels - NYTimes.com
For the solar and wind industries in the United States, it has been a long-held dream: to produce energy at a cost equal to conventional sources like coal and natural gas.

That day appears to be dawning.

The cost of providing electricity from wind and solar power plants has plummeted over the last five years, so much so that in some markets renewable generation is now cheaper than coal or natural gas.
It's harder to compete with crude oil for making liquid hydrocarbon fuels, however. The liquid state has the best features of the solid and gaseous states: the density of the solid state and the fluidity of the gaseous state. Hydrocarbons have the highest combustion-energy density of any sort of room-temperature liquid fuel composed of common elements.

But if one can make electricity cheap enough, then one may be able to make electricity-produced synfuels cheap enough to compete with crude oil. We are not quite there, however.
 
That day appears to be dawning.

The person who wrote that article is either a gullible fool incapable of doing the smallest amount of fact checking or a deliberate fraud. We haven't seen wholesale electricity prices above 2 or 3 cents per kwh for years. So it's hard to imagine the cost of coal or gas fired generation is above 6 cents per kwh. Conventional wisdom is that it's about 2.5 cents per kwh for a new ccgt. Maybe even lower now with the drop in gas prices.

In any case, if you believe the day where renewables are cheaper is here or near you should help explain to Uttermensche and the others that "peak oil" will not be the disaster they imagine it to be.
 
That day appears to be dawning.
The person who wrote that article is either a gullible fool incapable of doing the smallest amount of fact checking or a deliberate fraud. We haven't seen wholesale electricity prices above 2 or 3 cents per kwh for years.

Really?

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/prices.cfm

Prices are given in MWh, so you need to divide by 1000 to get kwh. You'll see prices ranging from 2.5 to more than 7 cents.

I'd note the article's first mention of a price was for a decades long suppy contract. Buying a 20-30 year futures contract for physical settlement does drive up the price a tad. Later one we see prices for wind of 2.1 cents per Kwh, well below the prices you're citing as typical.

In any case, if you believe the day where renewables are cheaper is here or near you should help explain to Uttermensche and the others that "peak oil" will not be the disaster they imagine it to be.

I believe the point of the article was a little more prosaic - that electricity companies are buying wind because it's the cheapest option open to them. You're welcome to claim that they don't know what they're talking about, of course.
 
Prices are given in MWh, so you need to divide by 1000 to get kwh. You'll see prices ranging from 2.5 to more than 7 cents.

There is one price at 7 cents which could be due to outages or weather.

The others are 2.5 to 3.5 just like I said.

There is not something special about the laws of physics in New England that makes building gas and coal fired generation there so much more expensive.
 
Back
Top Bottom