Houthis turn pirate

[lpetrich]

Unidentified Drones Target Israeli Oil Tankers in the Maldives: Exploring the Broader Implications

Reports have surfaced claiming that two Israeli oil tankers were recently attacked by unidentified drones in the western and northwestern regions of the Maldives. These attacks resulted in significant damage to the vessels through explosions. The reported incidents have raised concerns about the security and safety of international maritime trade routes.

Initial information suggests that both oil tankers suffered severe damage, but the exact extent is yet to be determined.

The Maldive Islands are about 600 km SW of the southern tip of India, about 3,600 kilometers by ship from Bab el Mandeb. The nation of the Maldives is officially Sunni Islam, so fellow Muslims might not provoke much suspicion.

What might Israel-bound oil tankers be doing near the Maldives? If they are going from Indonesia to Bab el Mandeb, then passing near the Maldives is the shortest path for them.

Going around Africa will avoid the Maldives, however.

 

[lpetrich]

But there is something else that Iran could use.  Unmanned aerial vehicles in the Iranian military and Missiles of Iran | Missile Threat

Some of them have a range long enough to hit Israel, so they could hit Israel-bound oil tankers in the Mediterranean.

 

[bilby]

But there is something else that Iran could use.  Unmanned aerial vehicles in the Iranian military and Missiles of Iran | Missile Threat

Some of them have a range long enough to hit Israel, so they could hit Israel-bound oil tankers in the Mediterranean.

Sinking a large ship in the Suez Canal would effectively close the shipping lanes through the Mediterranean.

Iran could achieve that objective without engaging in submarine or other conventional naval operations; An Iranian agent or terrorist cell in Egypt could mine the canal, for example; Or could use smuggled weapons to attack passing vessels from anywhere along the canal banks.

It would be harder to close the Strait of Gibraltar in that fashion; But not necessarily impossible - the credible threat of mines or shore-based weapons could achieve the effective closure of Gibraltar to merchant shipping, at least for as long as it would take for naval operations to confirm that the threat is either empty, or has been eliminated.

Ultimately though, if Iran wants to hold international merchant shipping to ransom, it would be far easier and more effective for them to blockade the Strait of Hormuz; Ending such a blockade would likely require a military invasion of Iran, and the oil shipments through that strait are of significant importance worldwide.

The problem with this (from an Iranian perspective) is that it would hurt Iran far more than it hurt America or Israel.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

But can a sub sneak through? It could do so by staying submerged the whole time, but I wouldn't bet on that. I checked on  Suezmax and that canal has no locks, unlike the Panama Canal. A canal lock is a segment of a canal whose water level can be varied to get a ship between neighboring parts that have different water levels. So getting into and out of a lock will not need to be done, and one does not have to worry about sharing one's lock space with a ship that is legitimately using it.

The Suez Canal's limiting draft (depth) is 20 meters, its limiting air draft (height) is 68 m, and its limiting beam (width) is 50 m. A Kilo-class sub has a length of 72 m, a beam of 9.9 m, and a draft of 6.2 m. Using the schematic picture in the Wikipedia article, the while line in it is 6.9 m above the lowest extent of the vertical tail fin, the top of the hull is 9.8 m, the top of the sail is 14.6 m, and the topmost projecting part 19.4 m. So this sub will barely be submerged in the Suez Canal.

Sure it can sneak through with the aid of a friendly vessel modified to act as a supporting base. A customs inspector would realize something's very wrong but that wouldn't be an issue just transiting.

The Strait of Gibraltar is a natural choke point, like the Bab el Mandeb, but none of its neighboring countries are likely to be friendly to Iran. They are all NATO members, or in the case of Morocco, closely cooperating with NATO. The same is mostly true of the Mediterranean Sea more generally, with Syria, the only likely ally, too close to Israel for their comfort.

But it's deep enough that it's hard to keep subs out.

 

[lpetrich]

I checked on the Strait of Gibraltar again. Width 13 kilometers, minimum of maximum depth: 300 meters.

 Kilo-class submarine - its endurance time is 45 days, meaning that it has to be resupplied every 45 days. Its submerged range is 740 km with a speed of 5.6 km/h and its snorkel-using range is 12,000 km with a speed of 13 km/h. It's a diesel-electric sub, so it has to come up for air to recharge its batteries by running its diesel engines.


Blocking the Strait of Hormuz? That will be interpreted as a gross provocation. The same for blocking the Suez Canal. So I don't think that Iran's leaders want to pick any fights there.

 

[Derec]

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz? That will be interpreted as a gross provocation. The same for blocking the Suez Canal. So I don't think that Iran's leaders want to pick any fights there.

They will continue gradually escalating as long as they believe that Biden et al will continue to twiddle their thumbs.
The time to hit Houthi bases directly was several weeks ago for example.

 

[bilby]

Blocking the Strait of Hormuz? That will be interpreted as a gross provocation. The same for blocking the Suez Canal. So I don't think that Iran's leaders want to pick any fights there.

But they're OK with blocking the Mediterranean??

It would appear that they are carefully picking threats that everyone knows are hollow; They're very carefully avoiding threatening to do anything that they might actually be capable of.

It's pure theatrics. Iran's leaders don't want to pick any fights at all, because they know that they would lose, badly.

But they still want to threaten the rest of the world. Probably for domestic consumption - people who feel that their country is beseiged by external enemies are less likely to revolt against their rulers, no matter how unpopular those rulers might be.

They worry that the young Iranian men chanting "Death to America!" could very easily start chanting "Death to the Ayatollah!", if the Americans were to become less of an existential threat. So they have to keep needling the Americans, while avoiding going too far, and actually provoking an American military response.

 

[laughing dog]

Yes, talk is an inexpensive way to mollify some of the masses. I suspect Iranian vociferous belligerence is for a select internal audience that is party to the power struggle within the gov’t.

 

[TomC]

Yes, talk is an inexpensive way to mollify some of the masses. I suspect Iranian vociferous belligerence is for a select internal audience that is party to the power struggle within the gov’t.

For most of my life, I thought USonians were different. We were smarter, more democratic, just plain better.

But living as I now do in Trumpistan, I've come to realize how wrong I was. We aren't particularly exceptional at all. We're just as amenable to authoritarian populism, as a group, as Muslims or Chinese or Russians or whoever.
Tom

 

[Loren Pechtel]

I checked on the Strait of Gibraltar again. Width 13 kilometers, minimum of maximum depth: 300 meters.

 Kilo-class submarine - its endurance time is 45 days, meaning that it has to be resupplied every 45 days. Its submerged range is 740 km with a speed of 5.6 km/h and its snorkel-using range is 12,000 km with a speed of 13 km/h. It's a diesel-electric sub, so it has to come up for air to recharge its batteries by running its diesel engines.


Blocking the Strait of Hormuz? That will be interpreted as a gross provocation. The same for blocking the Suez Canal. So I don't think that Iran's leaders want to pick any fights there.

Iran will push it as far as they think they can without coming under direct attack. And they will use the threat to block the sea to deter direct attack. (As they have done previously, dropping mines in the sea.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

It's pure theatrics. Iran's leaders don't want to pick any fights at all, because they know that they would lose, badly.

But they still want to threaten the rest of the world. Probably for domestic consumption - people who feel that their country is beseiged by external enemies are less likely to revolt against their rulers, no matter how unpopular those rulers might be.

They pick every fight they can so long as they think they can keep the retaliation from falling on Iran.

 

[lpetrich]

Seems to me that Iran's relationship with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthi movement is much like the relationship between US and Israel -- cantankerous allies that they are reluctant to try to rein in.

Crew of seized Galaxy Leader allowed 'modest' contact with families -shipowner | Reuters - December 5, 20231:16 PM PST - Israeli-linked ship becomes popular tourist hotspot in Yemen - 19 December, 2023 - Hijacked Galaxy Leader Owner Encouraged by Reports of Imminent Release of Crew - December 29, 2023 - GALAXY LEADER, Vehicles Carrier - Details and current position - IMO 9237307 - VesselFinder -  Galaxy Leader -- a roll-on roll-off vehicle-carrying ship.

From Dec 29,

The Galaxy Leader is the only ship that has been hijacked by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen, who have launched a series of drone and missile attacks against shipping purportedly in support of Palestinians who are under siege by Israel in Gaza amid the Israel-Hamas conflict. According to the U.S., the group has carried out 22 attacks or attempted attacks against merchant ships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden since October.

Although the attacks appear to be indiscriminate, the Houthis have maintained that they are only targeting Israeli-linked ships or ships traveling to Israel.

 

[lpetrich]

Oil tankers continue Red Sea movements despite Houthi attacks | Reuters - January 8, 20249:05 PM PST

Oil and fuel tanker traffic in the Red Sea was stable in December, even though many container ships have rerouted due to attacks by Iran-aligned Houthi militants, a Reuters analysis of vessel tracking data showed.

The attacks have driven up shipping costs sharply along with insurance premiums, but have had less impact than feared on oil flows, with shippers continuing to use the key East-West passage. The Houthis, who have said they are targeting Israel-bound vessels, have largely attacked non-petroleum goods shipments.

The added costs have not made a big difference to most shippers so far because the Red Sea remains much more affordable than sending cargo around Africa. But the situation bears watching with some oil companies like BP and Equinor diverting cargoes to the longer route. Also, increased shipping costs are likely to boost exports of U.S. crude to some European buyers, experts said.

Why let mainly oil get through? I think that Iran's leaders are telling their Houthi counterparts that attacking oil tankers would hurt their income, while ships carrying other things are fair game.

Cosco to stop booking ships to Israel as Houthi threats grow | The Straits Times

Container shipping giant China Cosco Shipping is to stop delivering goods into Israel because of the threats and attacks that Houthi militants have made against vessels that sail there.

Mr Amir Shani, deputy president at the Federation of Israeli Chambers of Commerce, an umbrella organisation for more than 5,000 businesses, said that Cosco informed his organisation’s member firms of the decision. A source with knowledge of the matter confirmed Cosco will not take bookings into Israel from next week.

...
The Houthis, siding with Hamas in its war with Israel, are going after merchant ships that have any ties to Tel Aviv, even if those connections sometimes look tenuous at best. The attacks – including drones, missiles and hijackings – have made numerous owners avoid the southern Red Sea and, by extension, Egypt’s Suez Canal. Hundreds of vessels are now sailing around Africa instead.

Cosco’s decision goes a step further and means at least one huge shipping company is now unwilling to send boxloads of goods to Israel. The Houthis have carried out at least 24 attacks on merchant ships since Nov 19, according to US Central Command.

 

[lpetrich]

Department Press Briefing - December 19, 2023 - United States Department of State - December 19, 2023 - "NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg on behalf of NATO, and a group representing 44 partner nations will soon release a joint statement condemning the Houthis’ ongoing and numerous attacks on merchant vessels."

A Joint Statement from the Governments of the United States, Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand, Republic of Korea, Singapore, and the United Kingdom | The White House - January 03, 2024

Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing. There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels. Attacks on vessels, including commercial vessels, using unmanned aerial vehicles, small boats, and missiles, including the first use of anti-ship ballistic missiles against such vessels, are a direct threat to the freedom of navigation that serves as the bedrock of global trade in one of the world’s most critical waterways.

Houthis launch largest drone and missile attack targeting ships in Red Sea - YouTube

'Three explosions heard in the capital of Yemen' - Reuters news agency reports - YouTube

Yemen: UK and US consider possible military action against Houthi rebels - BBC News - YouTube

US, UK launch large-scale retaliatory strikes against Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen - ABC News - "The Houthis had made repeated attacks on Red Sea shipping despite U.S. warnings."

The official said that the strikes involve a mix of fighter jets and Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from Navy surface ships and a U.S. Navy submarine, according to two U.S. officials.

Iranian navy seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman - ABC News - "The incident comes amid high tensions in the nearby Red Sea."

US-UK coalition strike Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen after spate of ship attacks in Red Sea

In anticipation of the attack, Houthi forces transported some weapons and equipment and fortified others, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing a U.S. defense official. Local reports indicated Houthi militants were evacuating the Red Sea city of Hodeidah.

Hudaydah is about 146 km WSW of capital Sana'a, and about 238 km N of the Bab el Mandeb (Bab al Mandab).


Security Council strongly condemns Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping | UN News

The United States reported earlier in the day that together with UK naval forces it had shot down 21 drones and missiles fired by Houthi rebels from Yemen on Tuesday in the southern Red Sea.

...
Houthis control the capital Sana’a and large swathes of the country, including the Red Sea coast. They began targeting what they believe to be Israel-bound vessels in mid-November after first launching missile and drone attacks against Israel itself, in support of the extremist group Hamas.

Now they have widened their aim to all international shipping companies, until, they say, Israel allows full humanitarian supplies to enter Gaza, causing many companies to divert ships far to the south around the Cape of Good Hope, driving up costs and threatening to disrupt the entire global supply chain.

 

[Derec]

Iranian navy seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman - ABC News - "The incident comes amid high tensions in the nearby Red Sea."

Tehran escalating, as usual.

US-UK coalition strike Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen after spate of ship attacks in Red Sea

Great news, albeit long overdue.

Houthis are complaining about aggression. As if they haven't been attacking civilian ships for over a month now.

 

[Derec]

Pro-jihadists of the "People's Forum" already out there protesting for the Houthis.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Iranian navy seizes oil tanker in Gulf of Oman - ABC News - "The incident comes amid high tensions in the nearby Red Sea."

Tehran escalating, as usual.

US-UK coalition strike Iran-backed Houthi targets in Yemen after spate of ship attacks in Red Sea

Great news, albeit long overdue.

Houthis are complaining about aggression. As if they haven't been attacking civilian ships for over a month now.

I support this attack. We need to ensure that the strait is free for commerce. I'm not so sure about "long overdue". The Biden administration is juggling a lot of balls right now. It is not in our best interest to have the ME war expanded. You primarily care about the ME. I've never seen you post in threads regarding Ukraine/Russia and or China/Taiwan. North Korea is always threatening South Korea. I support Israel. I support taking out the pirates trying to stop commerce through the strait. But the US as a whole has far more on its plate than just helping Israel.

 

[Gospel]

Pro-jihadists of the "People's Forum" already out there protesting for the Houthis.

I don't see pro-Jihadist; rather, it appears to be short-sellers frustrated with Biden's stance on Houthi militants, which undermines their put options.

 

[TomC]

But the US as a whole has far more on its plate than just helping Israel.

Really this.

I don't like any of Biden's options concerning Ukraine, Israel, China, or the Houthis. But boy am I glad the Teaparty idiocracy isn't in the White House.

Praise Jesus!
Tom

 

[Derec]

I don't see pro-Jihadist; rather, it appears to be short-sellers frustrated with Biden's stance on Houthi militants, which undermines their put options.

Cute, but this has been organized by the "People's Forum", which also organized pro-Hamas demos earlier in the war.