My Predictions for 2025

[GenesisNemesis]

Conservatives will cheer on deaths of and violence against protesters.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

I predict many failed predictions.

Particularly the more delusionally optimistic ones.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

More members of the nuclear club. Many of the advanced nations of the world have the tech and could do so reasonably easily.

Are you talking electricity generation, or weapons proliferation?

The latter is pretty effectively prohibited by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the only remaining nation that is not already a nuclear weapons state, but is not a party to the NPT (and so could develop or obtain such weapons without breaching international law) is South Sudan.

All the other non-parties already have nukes: India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan.

As far as electricity generation goes, it seems a bit silly for any new member of the nuclear power club to "reinvent the wheel", when they can get existing designs built by existing experienced teams; France, the US, South Korea, and India would all be lining up to sell their expertise to any new entrants. So the technological hurdle to adoption is very low indeed.

You don't need to develop your own reactor from scratch, when you can just buy one from an existing supplier.

But the NPT doesn't actually prevent it.

And, yes, I was talking weapons. Second strike capability to ensure they can't be destroyed.

 

[bilby]

More members of the nuclear club. Many of the advanced nations of the world have the tech and could do so reasonably easily.

Are you talking electricity generation, or weapons proliferation?

The latter is pretty effectively prohibited by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the only remaining nation that is not already a nuclear weapons state, but is not a party to the NPT (and so could develop or obtain such weapons without breaching international law) is South Sudan.

All the other non-parties already have nukes: India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan.

As far as electricity generation goes, it seems a bit silly for any new member of the nuclear power club to "reinvent the wheel", when they can get existing designs built by existing experienced teams; France, the US, South Korea, and India would all be lining up to sell their expertise to any new entrants. So the technological hurdle to adoption is very low indeed.

You don't need to develop your own reactor from scratch, when you can just buy one from an existing supplier.

But the NPT doesn't actually prevent it.

And, yes, I was talking weapons. Second strike capability to ensure they can't be destroyed.

Treaties don't prevent signatory nations from disregarding them.

If you expect the NPT to prevent signatories from ever obtaining nuclear weapons, then you haven't understood what a treaty is.

Anyone can break any law at any time. That does not imply that law is useless, pointless, or even powerless. This applies to nations breaking international law, just as it applies to individuals breaking local law.

The NPT provides that signatory states who breach its terms by acquiring nuclear weapons may face international sanction and censure. Just like any international treaty.

It's illegal to rob a bank. But that law doesn't "actually prevent" bank robberies.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

More members of the nuclear club. Many of the advanced nations of the world have the tech and could do so reasonably easily.

Are you talking electricity generation, or weapons proliferation?

The latter is pretty effectively prohibited by the Non-Proliferation Treaty, and the only remaining nation that is not already a nuclear weapons state, but is not a party to the NPT (and so could develop or obtain such weapons without breaching international law) is South Sudan.

All the other non-parties already have nukes: India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan.

As far as electricity generation goes, it seems a bit silly for any new member of the nuclear power club to "reinvent the wheel", when they can get existing designs built by existing experienced teams; France, the US, South Korea, and India would all be lining up to sell their expertise to any new entrants. So the technological hurdle to adoption is very low indeed.

You don't need to develop your own reactor from scratch, when you can just buy one from an existing supplier.

But the NPT doesn't actually prevent it.

And, yes, I was talking weapons. Second strike capability to ensure they can't be destroyed.

Treaties don't prevent signatory nations from disregarding them.

If you expect the NPT to prevent signatories from ever obtaining nuclear weapons, then you haven't understood what a treaty is.

Anyone can break any law at any time. That does not imply that law is useless, pointless, or even powerless. This applies to nations breaking international law, just as it applies to individuals breaking local law.

The NPT provides that signatory states who breach its terms by acquiring nuclear weapons may face international sanction and censure. Just like any international treaty.

It's illegal to rob a bank. But that law doesn't "actually prevent" bank robberies.

You said "is pretty effectively prohibited". Since the NPT is a complete prohibition the only non-redundant meaning for this is that it actually prevents proliferation. And I'm saying that in the current world situation the most sensible course of action for several western countries is to develop their own second strike capability. You would have to be pretty stupid to rely on American protection anymore.