Do you think any aliens exist in the universe?

[pood]

If someone tells Trump about this thread, he’ll immediately get on the horn to the prime minister of Denmark and demand that the Danes cede Enceladus to the U.S., though he won’t be able to pronounce it and will think it’s on the Arctic somewhere.

One interesting thing about his Greenland fixation is that his aides have probably told him the island will melt because of global warming and there is going to be an arms race in the Arctic, which unfortunately is probably true. This suggests he knows perfectly well that climate change is real but will say it isn’t anyway, because lying is what he does.

 

[bilby]

If someone tells Trump about this thread, he’ll immediately get on the horn to the prime minister of Denmark and demand that the Danes cede Enceladus to the U.S., though he won’t be able to pronounce it and will think it’s on the Arctic somewhere.

That's silly. Everyone knows it's in the Antarctic, near Mount Erebus.

Probably.

 

[pood]

En-sell-it-to-us (a short, one-act play)

Dramatis personae: Donald Trump, Mette Fredericksen, prime minister of Denmark, various aides of Fredericksen and various flunkies, toadies, sycophants, and ass kissers of Trump. Trump places a call to Fredericksen.

Trump:

Mette, Mette? It’s The Donald.

Fredericksen:

I already told you, we are not selling you Greenland. As one of our parliament members said, you can fuck off!

Trump:

What a nasty woman you are! But I’ve seen pictures of you, Mette. You’re not bad, though not exactly my type. However, maybe if you were twenty years younger … you know, if Ivanka wasn’t my daughter, I’d probably date her. Hell, I think I’ll date her anyway.

Fredericksen:

Get to the point, Mr. President. What do you want? I already told you Greenland is not for sale.

Trump:

En-sell-it-to-us.

Fredericksen:

No! That’s final. We’re not selling it to you.

Trump:

En-sell-it-to-us.

Fredericksen:

I said no! Greenland is not for sale. No, no, no!

Trump:

That’s what Melania said the other day, Mette, when I invited her to join me in the bathroom after we had gourmet lunch from McDonald’s. ‘Melania,’ I says, ‘Melanida, join me in the bathroom. You know we both have to shit after eating all those cheeseburgers.’ But she gives me the brushoff, Mette. ‘No, The Donald,’ she says, ‘no!’

Fredericksen:

You’re absolutely disgusting.

Trump:

Thank you very much, Mette. But enough of your flattery, much as I like it. We want En-sell-it-to-us. I won’t rule out military force to get it.

Fredericksen:

You’re mad! Greenlanders want nothing to do with you!

Trump:

I’m not talking about Greenland now, Mette. I’m talking about En-sell-it-to-us.

Fredericksen:

What? What are you talking about? Sell what to you?

Trump:

En-sell-it-to-us, Mette.

Fredericksen (puzzled pause)

I don’t understand. You want us to sell you letter N?

Trump:

No, we want En-sell-it-to-us. I understand it’s very icy but it will melt because of climate change and it probably has plenty of minerals we need.

Fredericksen:

I have no idea what you’re talking about. Can you have one of your flunkies, toadies, sycophants or ass kissers spell out what it is you want to buy?

Trump (yells for flunkies and aides): Someone spell it for this nasty woman and get these stupid Phonics cards away from me … and bring me a hot cup of covfefe … And, Elon, I’ve told you a thousand times to quit humping my leg (violent kick can be heard).

Flunky takes phone:

It’s spelled E-N-C-E-L-A-D-U-S.

Fredericksen (summons aides): Just a moment … (background conversation) Mr. President, we’ve googled all this up. The only references we can find for that word describe a Greek God, and an icy moon of Saturn.

Trump:

You have Denmarkians on a moon of Saturn, Mette?

Fredericksen:

Of course not! And it’s ’Danes,’ not, ‘Denmarkians,’ you repulsive, ignorant orange toad!

Etc.

Such is the alleged person that the donkeys and dumb asses of America saw fit to elect as president.

 

[DBT]

Europa may be better....being closer to home and all.

 

[bilby]

Europa may be better....being closer to home and all.

Yeah, but there are huge risks in suggesting to Trump that he might want to invade Europa.

 

[Elixir]

Europa may be better....being closer to home and all.

Maybe right. The sun will probably burn up Enceladus first too, despite Europa's greater proximity to the sun. (It's like a quarter of Europa's diameter...) So OK, but it does mean being more likely to fall within annexation range.

 

[DBT]

Europa may be better....being closer to home and all.

Yeah, but there are huge risks in suggesting to Trump that he might want to invade Europa.

He can send the navy in. Sort those Europan's out good and proper.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

…so its hospitable-to-life lifespan is like, over 80% spent?
That’s kinda how I feel lately. Maybe not 4 billion years old, but at least a billion or two.

Hospitable to macroscopic life, it's more like 99% done.

Indirectly, this is very good news. There must be something ridiculously low probability in the path from the first life to a starfaring civilization, the question is whether it is behind us or in front of us. And that 99% figure suggests that time might be an important factor--that most planets don't reach intelligence in time.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

When the ice melts on Enceladus, the fishing is going to be fantastic.

No, because nothing out there can hold surface water.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

Your numbers do not agree with the research on the subject. See, for example, this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10714), which I cited earlier, and the references therein in Table 1.

 

[Elixir]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

…so its hospitable-to-life lifespan is like, over 80% spent?
That’s kinda how I feel lately. Maybe not 4 billion years old, but at least a billion or two.

Hospitable to macroscopic life, it's more like 99% done.

Indirectly, this is very good news. There must be something ridiculously low probability in the path from the first life to a starfaring civilization, the question is whether it is behind us or in front of us. And that 99% figure suggests that time might be an important factor--that most planets don't reach intelligence in time.

OTOH we have only been a mostly technological population for only a few tens of thousands of years as far as we know. If impactors or volcanoes don’t set us back or wipe us out, we might yet be able to rape and plunder the entire cosmic neighborhood. Even a million years would probably suffice to get pretty good at it.
And from there, the sky’s the - oh wait.
Never mind!
I learned some good news today though;
If we survive the first close encounter with Andromeda in about a billion years, there is only a 50% chance of a final galactic merger within 10 billion years, and even if that happens it is unlikely to effect our solar system - which will probably just be one bigass red giant by then, and therefore very hard to effect.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

Your numbers do not agree with the research on the subject. See, for example, this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10714), which I cited earlier, and the references therein in Table 1.

That's talking about the survival of any life, not of macroscopic life.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

…so its hospitable-to-life lifespan is like, over 80% spent?
That’s kinda how I feel lately. Maybe not 4 billion years old, but at least a billion or two.

Hospitable to macroscopic life, it's more like 99% done.

Indirectly, this is very good news. There must be something ridiculously low probability in the path from the first life to a starfaring civilization, the question is whether it is behind us or in front of us. And that 99% figure suggests that time might be an important factor--that most planets don't reach intelligence in time.

OTOH we have only been a mostly technological population for only a few tens of thousands of years as far as we know. If impactors or volcanoes don’t set us back or wipe us out, we might yet be able to rape and plunder the entire cosmic neighborhood. Even a million years would probably suffice to get pretty good at it.
And from there, the sky’s the - oh wait.
Never mind!
I learned some good news today though;
If we survive the first close encounter with Andromeda in about a billion years, there is only a 50% chance of a final galactic merger within 10 billion years, and even if that happens it is unlikely to effect our solar system - which will probably just be one bigass red giant by then, and therefore very hard to effect.

The chance that nature is going to wipe us out before we reach the stars is pretty close to nil. That would require extremely bad luck. The question is whether the filter is that intelligent life destroys itself before reaching the stars.

 

[Loren Pechtel]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

Your numbers do not agree with the research on the subject. See, for example, this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10714), which I cited earlier, and the references therein in Table 1.

That's talking about the survival of any life, not of macroscopic life.

 

[Shadowy Man]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

Your numbers do not agree with the research on the subject. See, for example, this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10714), which I cited earlier, and the references therein in Table 1.

That's talking about the survival of any life, not of macroscopic life.

Are you sure about that? Did you even read the first sentence of the abstract?

Approximately one billion years (Gyr) in the future, as the Sun brightens, Earth’s carbonate-silicate cycle is expected to drive CO2 below the minimum level required by vascular land plants, eliminating most macroscopic land life.

 

[Shadowy Man]

If you disagree with the scientific researchers on the subject can you at least point to the analysis that supports your conclusion, which is at least an order of magnitude shorter than this paper and references therein.

Or perhaps point to the statements in this paper that demonstrate that I am misunderstanding it? I am willing to admit to being wrong here, since this is not my area of expertise.

 

[Elixir]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

A lot less than that. Earth has only about 50 million years left where it can compensate for the sun growing hotter over the eons. At that point CO2 levels peg low and the mercury starts rising. Life might hang on to the billion year mark but it will be extremeophiles, nothing like us. And that's the best case estimate in which the oceans have escaped into space. If they haven't it will be much, much worse. (Water molecules that get high enough into the atmosphere will photodisassociate and Earth can't hold hydrogen very well. This is currently a very slow trickle because the cold keeps the water down lower.)

Your numbers do not agree with the research on the subject. See, for example, this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.10714), which I cited earlier, and the references therein in Table 1.

That's talking about the survival of any life, not of macroscopic life.

Are you sure about that? Did you even read the first sentence of the abstract?

Approximately one billion years (Gyr) in the future, as the Sun brightens, Earth’s carbonate-silicate cycle is expected to drive CO2 below the minimum level required by vascular land plants, eliminating most macroscopic land life.

I wish you guys would figure this out. I got plans, you know.

 

[aupmanyav]

The chance that nature is going to wipe us out before we reach the stars is pretty close to nil.

The nearest star to the Sun is Proxima Centauri, located about 4.25 light-years away in the Alpha Centauri star system. It is a small, dim red dwarf star that is not visible to the naked eye.
A light-year is approximately 5.88 trillion miles. It is the distance that light travels in one year.
So, that makes 25 trillion miles. I do not think we or our descendants will ever go that far.

 

[Elixir]

Our earth will probably not remain earthlike for much longer, cosmologically speaking.

Perhaps we have about a billion years before the sun roasts the earthlings.

…so its hospitable-to-life lifespan is like, over 80% spent?
That’s kinda how I feel lately. Maybe not 4 billion years old, but at least a billion or two.

Hospitable to macroscopic life, it's more like 99% done.

Indirectly, this is very good news. There must be something ridiculously low probability in the path from the first life to a starfaring civilization, the question is whether it is behind us or in front of us. And that 99% figure suggests that time might be an important factor--that most planets don't reach intelligence in time.

OTOH we have only been a mostly technological population for only a few tens of thousands of years as far as we know. If impactors or volcanoes don’t set us back or wipe us out, we might yet be able to rape and plunder the entire cosmic neighborhood. Even a million years would probably suffice to get pretty good at it.
And from there, the sky’s the - oh wait.
Never mind!
I learned some good news today though;
If we survive the first close encounter with Andromeda in about a billion years, there is only a 50% chance of a final galactic merger within 10 billion years, and even if that happens it is unlikely to effect our solar system - which will probably just be one bigass red giant by then, and therefore very hard to effect.

The chance that nature is going to wipe us out before we reach the stars is pretty close to nil. That would require extremely bad luck. The question is whether the filter is that intelligent life destroys itself before reaching the stars.

I foresee that man will wipe out his own capability to reach any stars for long enough that nature has a real good chance of beating them to the punch. Reaching stars is going to take stability on a scale no human society has ever exhibited.