How Will the Economy Improve?

[ImGod]

The US will need to get more sophisticated with its tariffs to block China. They realized after the last Trump administration they needed policies to address a trade war and have been working on them for years. Including chinese companies moving manufacturing into other countries and setting up trade deals that don't involve the US.

Thats why "exports from China" are lower by ~$100 billion or so compared to 2 years ago. They are producing in other countries, shipping from there to the US, and sending the money home. Or selling to others.

The only way to counter that are policies more like the Russian sanctions that target international banking, companies, and individuals.

You can see the recent drop here. And the Covid drop by comparison.

United States Imports from China - 2025 Data 2026 Forecast 1991-2024 Historical

United States Imports from China was US$462.62 Billion during 2024, according to the United Nations COMTRADE database on international trade. United States Imports from China - data, historical chart and statistics - was last updated on September of 2025.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Swammerdami]

I have no problem with gold; I just have a problem with people who believe that it has a value derived from some magical "intrinsic" property of the metal,

Yikes! When are we going to abandon this confused thinking?

Let's review some trivia. Most Infidels, even bilby, probably understand 6th-grade economics, but it seems we need to review some trivia to correct the severe confusion here.

Market Price: Supply and Demand
Things have market prices determined by supply and demand. A certain baseball trading card might have a market value of $100. Please note that it's beside the point to debate whether that value is "rational" or "irrational." Saying that the card has a value of $100 simply means you might go to a trading card market and find a buyer at $90 or a seller at $110. (The $20 differential is called the "spread"; I've no idea what a typical spread is for baseball trading cards.) Some markets have large spreads; some have small spreads. Some prices fluctuate steeply over time; some don't. Any questions so far?

The price of gold is determined the same way the price of baseball trading cards is determined: supply and demand. At present central banks hoard enormous quantities of gold. Would the price fall if these banks started selling large quantities of that gold? You betcha. But that is VERY unlikely to happen in our lifetimes ... unless gold starts being used as money again. Would the price rise if central banks started buying more gold than they already are? You betcha! Why is this? Figure it out for yourself before clicking on the Spoiler. Supply and Demand.

Start a thread in one of the Religion sub-fora if you want to argue for or against any "magical" properties of gold. Begin that discussion with a statement about whether baseball trading cards have "magical" value. Your thread will be the "sound of one hand clapping" since I doubt if anyone here thinks gold has a "magic" value.

Intrinsic Value Money
During the mid 1940's there was chaos in Europe and cigarettes came into use as a currency. It was preferred over fiat money (paper notes) because it had an INTRINSIC value. Independent of any specific recognition of cigarettes as "money", people understood that it wouldn't be hard to find someone who wanted to SMOKE the cigarettes and would be happy to trade other goods or services for them. Whether smoking cigarettes was healthy or unhealthy is IRRELEVANT to their use as money. (The ability to divide a carton into ten smaller-denomination packs, or even to subdivide a pack for small change was useful.)

Silver and gold were used as intrinsic-value money over several thousands of years. The values of these precious metals varied very little over time; their use as money helped with this stability. The wage of an unskilled worker in ancient Greece was about two grams of silver per day; the wage of an unskilled worker thousands of years later in late medieval Europe was about ... two grams of silver per day! We know that the precious metal coins were used as intrinsic value money because money-changers used the coins' weight and purity when exchanging money.

Perhaps the clearest proof that silver coins were accepted as money due to their intrinsic value is to note that King Edward IV minted two types of penny during his reign. The "light penny" had essentially the same inscriptions as the "heavy penny" but was 20% lighter. A merchant who sold a gallon of cheap wine for 4 heavy pennies would need 5 light pennies for the same gallon.

Note that "intrinsic value" in this context means "market value independent of any government fiat." It does NOT mean "magic value."

when in fact its value comes from the exact same place as the value of Bitcoin - the expectation that you can find a future idiot to buy it from you.

Does the word "idiot" contribute to your point, if any, here? I suppose a day trader who consistently makes money speculating on pork belly futures is clever. Someone who makes consistent money trading soybean contracts is clever. But someone who trades gold, however successfully, is an "idiot." Does that summarize your "idea"?

Exactly. Gold is good for money, because it's intrinsically worthless.

Amusing. I suppose your "thinking" is unaffected by the fact that the price of gold soared upward when it ceased to be used as money.

 

[ImGod]

So China is either a huge threat to the US and 145% tariffs bring back US manufacturing. Or they don't export as much stuff as we think and tariffs won't do much to fix our problems. We should pick a stance so the market knows.

China predicted this day would come. That's why they aren't backing down. They have been enacting policies to decrease export dependence on the US for a couple years now.

"Today, China is much better placed to weather a broader trade conflict, experts say. Compared with 2018, it’s expanded its trade relations with the rest of the world, reducing the share of US exports from roughly one-fifth of its total to less than 15%.

Its manufacturers have also set up extensive operations in third countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, in part to take advantage of potentially lower US duties."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/10/business/us-trade-war-china-escalation-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[Swammerdami]

I explain in #66 WHY U.S. denominated bonds dropped in value during the Tariff Fiasco, both before and after the retraction. If the trade imbalance IS reduced, one can expect -- at least in the short to medium term -- inflation and higher interest rates (and thus lower bond prices) in the U.S.

I heard on NPR that investors usually park their money in bonds when things look unstable. But they did not do that this time.
Where is it?

Where is the money? Much of it was kept as cash, waiting to climb back on when stock prices looked attractive. Will those who jumped back in and bought at Tuesday's low be happy in a month or two? I dunno.

As far as the trillions in WEALTH (not money) that disappeared since February's highs, that's just gone. Maybe it will come back; maybe not.

 

[Axulus]

Another thing to consider: this makes it much more likely China siezes Taiwan. With what is effectively a trade embargo between the US and China, there is much less economic leverage the US has against China should they go through with it. And does anyone really believe Trump will use the military to stop it? I'm sure China is making detailed probability calculations on that daily, waiting for the perfect moment.

And should China go through with it, Trump will feel even more emboldened to sieze Greenland and Panama Canal.

 

[laughing dog]

Trumponomics is sneaky. The best way to eliminate trade deficits is to have a recession.

 

[bilby]

It would be nicer not to lose what little honor we have left

You've gotta be drunker than a Defense Secretary to believe Trump is restoring US honour amongst the world.

By the way, doing nothing is infinitely better than putting out a fire with gasoline.

According to key performance indicators,

Which key performance indicators? What specific indicator(s) are you referencing?

If you (or your favourite sources) say "According to key performance indicators", but then don't mention which KPIs they are talking about, they are just saying "Because of reasons..."

That's not supporting your position; It's a placeholder where support should appear, but doesn't.

doing nothing is worse than doing something now.

That depends what "something" you have in mind. Trying to fight a fire with gasoline is "something", but doing so is always going to be worse than doing nothing.

China is ascending and the US is descending rapidly

Only because your president has dine just about the stupidest "something" imaginable.

so if our "home foundation" doesn't get fixed now it never will.

If that's true, then it never will. The guy you hired to fix it just poured gasoline everywhere and set the place ablaze, and you seem to think that you should wait to see whether he has a cunning plan you don't understand, before calling the fire department.

 

[bilby]

China is a big cheater and someone with courage and bravery has to stand up to them.

OK.

So, when is this person with courage and bravery going to push the spineless and pointlessly vicious blob, that is currently occupying the Oval Office, out of the way?

 

[bilby]

During the mid 1940's there was chaos in Europe and cigarettes came into use as a currency. It was preferred over fiat money (paper notes) because it had an INTRINSIC value. Independent of any specific recognition of cigarettes as "money", people understood that it wouldn't be hard to find someone who wanted to SMOKE the cigarettes and would be happy to trade other goods or services for them.

Great. We agree on something. Cigarettes are intrinsicly valuable, because some people have a specific desire to use them, and that use consumes the commodity. You can't have your cigarette and smoke it too.

Food too is intrinsically valuable, for the same reason. And for the same reason, tobacco and food are poor choices for money - they cannot be saved for long, and can only change hands a few times before they become valueless due to having been consumed.

Now all you need do is show that some people have a need or strong desire to consume gold, and your analogy is complete, and you will have shown that, like tobacco, gold has intrinsic value.

But sadly, gold doesn't have any such intrinsic value; It cannot be consumed, Exactly like fiat money, gold has value because (and only because, and only as long as) there are people who expect other people to want it for use as money.

You seem to think that intrinsic value is desirable as a quality for currency. If so, you are wrong. Gold is an excellent choice of exchange medium exactly because it is intrinsically valueless - nobody* wants to consume the stuff.





*With the trivial exception of dentists and jewellers, and even in those cases the gold is easily recycled at any time.

 

[bilby]

Silver and gold were used as intrinsic-value money over several thousands of years.

Which is strange, because neither has much intrinsic worth. Unlike tobacco or food (and just like dollar bills or pound notes), gold and silver aren't good for anything much, except as money.

 

[bilby]

The wage of an unskilled worker in ancient Greece was about two grams of silver per day; the wage of an unskilled worker thousands of years later in late medieval Europe was about ... two grams of silver per day!

The absence of inflation in a commodity money economy is due simply to low economic growth rates, coupled with low rates of increase in the supply of the commodity in question.

You are thrashing about all over the place here; But you are not showing that gold is "intrinsically valuable". Quite the opposite. It's good for money because it's intrinsic value is close to zero. Just like fiat money.

 

[southernhybrid]

Actually, gold is used for a lot of things other than jewelry and money. I'll add one link out of many that describe the many things that gold is used for and why gold is so important. A lot of it has to do with the fact that it is very easy to recycle.

https://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

Not that this has much of anything to do with the original topic of this thread, but do we ever stay on topic these days? I don't think so.

 

[bilby]

Note that "intrinsic value" in this context means "market value independent of any government fiat."

No, it doesn't. It means "Value regardless of a market". A cigarette or a cake has intrinsic value, because even if nobody can be found to exchange it for something I want, I can always consume it myself.

Your entire basis for your hobbyhorse about "intrinsic value" seems to be this bizarre and entirely personal definition. "intrinsic" value has never meant "market value independent of any government fiat". It means "value independent of markets".

You have wasted a VAST amount of time and effort, by not pointing out your insane idea that "intrinsic" is somehow defined by the absence of government interference. WTAF??

 

[Swammerdami]

First of all, much of your confusion stems from your ignorance of what "intrinsic-value money" even means. I DEFINED it a few posts ago via

Note that "intrinsic value" in this context means "market value independent of any government fiat." It does NOT mean "magic value."

It is YOU who seem to impute some religious or magical significance to the word "intrinsic." If you cannot cope with the very word "intrinsic", suggest an alternate word if you want to discuss intelligently.

In your dialect, do baseball trading cards have "intrinsic value"? How about diamonds? Or, as you do so often, will you refuse to answer^* since the introspection needed even to answer will diret you toward improved understanding?

* - "Was Buddha a 'nobody'? Mohammed?" -- bilby refused to answer.

You seem to think that intrinsic value is desirable as a quality for currency. If so, you are wrong. Gold is an excellent choice of exchange medium exactly because it is intrinsically valueless - nobody* wants to consume the stuff.

Gibberish. Cigarettes are used as currency, when no other currency is available, because some people want to consume them. Yes, this means "money is burned up" -- -- but that "money" will be replaced automatically as supplies come in for smokers.

Cigarettes are used as money in situations (prison, chaotic country) BECAUSE they are valuable. Raise your hand if you REALLY do not understand why paper fiat money is NOT a reliable form of money in a chaotic country (and is against the rules to possess in U.S prisons).

 

[bilby]

First of all, much of your confusion stems from your ignorance of what "intrinsic-value money" even means. I DEFINED it a few posts ago via

Note that "intrinsic value" in this context means "market value independent of any government fiat." It does NOT mean "magic value."

Yeah, thanks for finally clearing up the issue by admitting that you mean something bizarre and ideosyncratic when you say "intrinsic".

It is YOU who seem to impute some religious or magical significance to the word "intrinsic."

No, that would be what you did by bizarrely tying it to "government".

If you cannot cope with the very word "intrinsic", suggest an alternate word if you want to discuss intelligently.

I cannot cope with your stupid way of using the word, which has wasted vast amounts of time creating a disagreement that doesn't really exist at all.

Congratulations, I guess. You got to be preachy and condescending, and all you had to do to get there was be incomprehensible and argumentative, while not defining a word you choose to use in a different way to every other English speaker.

 

[Swammerdami]

I cannot cope with your stupid way of using the word, which has wasted vast amounts of time creating a disagreement that doesn't really exist at all.

Was it one year ago, or two years ago when I explained the term in detail? The "disagreement" is just your obstinance.

Congratulations, I guess. You got to be preachy and condescending, and all you had to do to get there was be incomprehensible and argumentative, while not defining a word you choose to use in a different way to every other English speaker.

You've been ranting about this for months or years. If you can't heed my words, why not try Google?

Silver is considered "intrinsic money" because it has value inherent to the metal itself, rather than being backed by a government or other entity. This makes it a form of commodity money, and unlike fiat currency, it has been used as a medium of exchange and store of value for centuries.

Or  Fiat money:

Fiat money is an alternative to commodity money, which is a currency that has intrinsic value because it contains, for example, a precious metal such as gold or silver which is embedded in the coin.

(I avoided the term "commodity money" which can cause confusion, e.g. wampum money in the Colonies which was treated like fiat money.)

Or https://www.yieldstreet.com/resources/article/what-is-commodity-money/

Commodity money refers to a physical item such as gold or silver, that possesses intrinsic value, whereby its value transcends means of exchange.

Et cetera.

Welcome to Planet Earth. Welcome to the English language.

 

[bilby]

I cannot cope with your stupid way of using the word, which has wasted vast amounts of time creating a disagreement that doesn't really exist at all.

Was it one year ago, or two years ago when I explained the term in detail? The "disagreement" is just your obstinance.

Please, quote yourself doing so.

Congratulations, I guess. You got to be preachy and condescending, and all you had to do to get there was be incomprehensible and argumentative, while not defining a word you choose to use in a different way to every other English speaker.

You've been ranting about this for months or years. If you can't heed my words, why not try Google?

Silver is considered "intrinsic money" because it has value inherent to the metal itself, rather than being backed by a government or other entity. This makes it a form of commodity money, and unlike fiat currency, it has been used as a medium of exchange and store of value for centuries.

No mention whatsoever of the vital and central importance of the role of government, which can apparently also be played by an "other entity"...

Or  Fiat money:

Fiat money is an alternative to commodity money, which is a currency that has intrinsic value because it contains, for example, a precious metal such as gold or silver which is embedded in the coin.

Still no mention whatsoever of your "Government" requirement...

(I avoided the term "commodity money" which can cause confusion, e.g. wampum money in the Colonies which was treated like fiat money.)


Or https://www.yieldstreet.com/resources/article/what-is-commodity-money/

Commodity money refers to a physical item such as gold or silver, that possesses intrinsic value, whereby its value transcends means of exchange.

STILL no mention whatsoever of your "Government" requirement...

Et cetera.


Welcome to Planet Earth. Welcome to the English language.

Your misplaced condescension remains absurd and ridiculous.

"Intrinsic value" means "Value regardless of a market". Government is of fuck-all relevance.

You just demonstrated my objection three times, while claiming to be rebutting it.

Please, stop digging.

 

[Patooka]

According to key performance indicators, doing nothing is worse than doing something now.

This is Homer Simpson level type of stupidity. You understand that right?

Right?

But you know what KPI means. You have the knowledge of middle management, I guess that makes you an "expert who does his own research".

 

[Politesse]

I would actually support a plan with small tariffs used to finance local factory subsidies. I agree with bringing manufacturing back to the states.

New factories, the path to the future? And who's gonna work them, with Trump deporting every last person who knows how to work an honest job and is willing to do it for crap pay and no union?

 

[ZiprHead]

Plus, about 70% of the shit we buy is made in China. Trump is such a moron.

In 2024, the US imported $438.9 billion worth of goods from China, representing 13.4% of all goods imports, according to Visual Capitalist.

Mapped: Which U.S. States Import the Most from China?

We show the U.S. states with the highest share of imports from China as the Trump administration imposes a 34% blanket tariff on the country.

www.visualcapitalist.com

And???