We are on the Verge of Economic Catastrophe

[Ford]

How bad do things have to get to convince Americans that Trump is not really a Christian?
Tom

Its obviously an American thing. Those of us outside the USA worked out years and years ago that Trump was not a Christian.

It's not an anything. Christians do not even believe Trump is a Christian. They do believe he is more likely to stand up for them than a Harris or a Biden, or God knows what half-baked candidate the Dems might come up with.

At the risk of doing the dreaded "both sides" thing...

Back in the aftermath of the 2012 shellacking of the GOP that led to Obama's second term, the "Party of Lincoln" did this thing where they did a bit of soul-searching. A research project to find out "where did we go wrong?" IIRC, the results were that they needed to be more of a "big tent" party. More inclusive. To veer away from the white Christian Nationalist road they were going down.

Four years later they threw it all out the window and went with Trump.

When he became a one-term proposition, did they re-evaluate and course correct? No, they went "all in" on a second round of Fragilego Mussolini. I know it's only been 6 months since the Democrats blew the whole thing and lost the House, the Senate, and the White House, but I'm not seeing them doing a lot of introspective study of what went wrong. Millions of people are taking to the streets and saying "can you please be at least a little more left-wing?" but DNC leadership seems hell-bent on sticking with the "if we just moderate a little more we can capture the swing voters!"

 

[Politesse]

How bad do things have to get to convince Americans that Trump is not really a Christian?
Tom

Its obviously an American thing. Those of us outside the USA worked out years and years ago that Trump was not a Christian.

It's not an anything. Christians do not even believe Trump is a Christian. They do believe he is more likely to stand up for them than a Harris or a Biden, or God knows what half-baked candidate the Dems might come up with.

Why? Trump is always the first to throw his own people under the bus.

 

[TV and credit cards]

How bad do things have to get to convince Americans that Trump is not really a Christian?
Tom

Its obviously an American thing. Those of us outside the USA worked out years and years ago that Trump was not a Christian.

It's not an anything. Christians do not even believe Trump is a Christian. They do believe he is more likely to stand up for them than a Harris or a Biden, or God knows what half-baked candidate the Dems might come up with.

Why? Trump is always the first to throw his own people under the bus.

Why do they believe he’ll stand up for them? Because they’ll believe anything.
Evangelicals are most likely to have a favorable opinion of Trump and of those, more believe he will stand up for their religious beliefs. But few are so deluded as to believe Trump is religious.

Most people who view Trump positively don’t think he is especially religious himself. But many think he stands up for people with religious beliefs like theirs.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Because this is about nothing but white nationalism. They can depend on them for race.

 

[SLD]

I enjoyed Ray Dalio’s book the Changing World Order. In it he analyzes the changes in society and the structures of world power since the early 1700’s. But I’m not sure he was totally correct about the rise, or really even the threat, that China poses. China has huge issues that we don’t and its economy is slowing far more rapidly than many have predicted it would. Its demographics also create serious problems for the future of China, and Xi has had to clamp down hard on any dissent to maintain his power. He could die tomorrow and they’d slide into serious chaos.

Nevertheless, he does make for prescient analysis of world trends and he correctly predicted the 2008 downturn. Now he’s making another dire warning, and it’s not simply the Tariffs, but that we are on the cusp of world changing disruption of market forces that could really hammer our economy and way of life. Right now the dollar has collapsed in value, and 20 year T-bills have soared in yields. This is a scary development because it means that investors are losing confidence in the dollar and the American economy. Trump’s on again, off again policies are scaring away people. His weaponizing the justice department to go after people, his deportation plans are turning off investors and investment in the country. Couple this with both tax reductions for the wealthy and large corporations, along with a gutting of the IRS enforcement arm, and you can see a recipe for disaster shaping up quickly. We will neither get enough tax receipts nor be able to fund further debt. At that point, cuts are inevitable. Huge cuts. And these in turn will spiral the economy further into recession. And as Dalio predicts, much worse. We are on the verge of economic catastrophe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...risis-says-worried-something-worse-rcna201040

 

[Swammerdami]

I enjoyed Ray Dalio’s book the Changing World Order. In it he analyzes the changes in society and the structures of world power since the early 1700’s. But I’m not sure he was totally correct about the rise, or really even the threat, that China poses. China has huge issues that we don’t and its economy is slowing far more rapidly than many have predicted it would. Its demographics also create serious problems for the future of China, and Xi has had to clamp down hard on any dissent to maintain his power. He could die tomorrow and they’d slide into serious chaos.

Nevertheless, he does make for prescient analysis of world trends and he correctly predicted the 2008 downturn. Now he’s making another dire warning, and it’s not simply the Tariffs, but that we are on the cusp of world changing disruption of market forces that could really hammer our economy and way of life. Right now the dollar has collapsed in value, and 20 year T-bills have soared in yields. This is a scary development because it means that investors are losing confidence in the dollar and the American economy. Trump’s on again, off again policies are scaring away people. His weaponizing the justice department to go after people, his deportation plans are turning off investors and investment in the country. Couple this with both tax reductions for the wealthy and large corporations, along with a gutting of the IRS enforcement arm, and you can see a recipe for disaster shaping up quickly. We will neither get enough tax receipts nor be able to fund further debt. At that point, cuts are inevitable. Huge cuts. And these in turn will spiral the economy further into recession. And as Dalio predicts, much worse. We are on the verge of economic catastrophe.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/po...risis-says-worried-something-worse-rcna201040

I admire Dalio. I think it was him more than any other pundit who induced me to buy a fair amount of gold some years ago.

I watched the video and was very amused by the interviewer. "What's worse than a recession? You mention the 1930s." she asks. (So obvious she wants to hear the 'D' word.) Dalio declines to indulge her. She interrupts to ask "Be very specific."

I admire optimists, but am not one myself. Dalio recommends a "bipartisan approach." I hear that and don't know whether to laugh or to cry.

 

[Elixir]

 

[SLD]

 

[robnisch]

View attachment 50169

MSN

www.msn.com

XI is on it, don't worry.

 

[Elixir]

I'll believe it when BYD's EV batteries start showing up.

you cannot currently buy BYD passenger cars in the US. While BYD sells electric buses in the US, it has no plans to sell its passenger cars, such as the Han EV, in the American market. High tariffs on Chinese imports are a significant factor in this

Gotta protect the $288,000,000.00 donor, y'know.

 

[southernhybrid]

Will the MAGA crowd wise up when they can no longer have their Rxs. filled or have to pay a lot more for them? Gifted article below.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/...e_code=1._04.4bOT.R_btBGrCB3Mf&smid=url-share

President Trump’s decision to move a step closer to imposing tariffs on imported medicines poses considerable political risk, because Americans could face higher prices and more shortages of critical drugs.

The Trump administration filed a federal notice on Monday saying that it had begun an investigation into whether imports of medicines and pharmaceutical ingredients threaten America’s national security, an effort to lay the groundwork for possible tariffs on foreign-made drugs.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly said he planned to impose such levies, to shift overseas production of medicines back to the United States. Experts said that tariffs were unlikely to achieve that goal: Moving manufacturing would be hugely expensive and would take years.

He could face a harsh backlash if pharmaceutical tariffs lead to significant drug price increases or shortages for patients. The number of drug shortages reached a record-level high last year. Americans fill several billion prescriptions a year, on top of purchasing over-the-counter products like cough syrup and Tylenol.

Tracking Trump’s First 100 Days ›
The Trump administration’s previous actions on China and tariffs

• April 11Issued a rule exempting many electronic parts and devices from the president’s tariffs against China ›
• April 8Said that China was making a ‘big mistake’ in retaliating against President Trump’s tariffs ›
• April 7Threatened to impose huge tariffs on China in response to Beijing’s retaliation ›
• March 9Declined to rule out that a recession was possible this year ›
• Feb. 7Temporarily walked back the suspension of de minimis, a type of duty-free treatment ›

Earlier entries about China and tariffs
See every major action by the Trump administration ›

Mr. Trump has not talked much about lowering drug prices in his second term, nor did he make it a top issue in his 2024 campaign.

If pharmaceutical tariffs cause an increase in any drug prices, Democrats could jump on the issue for the midterm elections next year and try to undercut Mr. Trump’s popularity among working-class voters.

Yeah! He's a stable genius for sure.

Targeting pharmaceuticals also risks further inflaming relations with allies like the European Union and India, whose economies are supported by drug exports to the United States. Officials of those countries fear that drug tariffs could prompt companies to renege on investments, resulting in a loss of jobs, factories and tax revenue.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

I couldn't believe it when I saw he wanted to tariff prescription drugs. Unless he is trying to bankrupt Medicare.

I'd say tariffing drugs would be a much greater threat to Americans than importing drugs.

 

[Elixir]

It all makes sense when you consider that he is a Russian agent.

 

[TV and credit cards]

China's rare earth exports grind to a halt.
And about our ability to produce and process these rare earth elements:
The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions.
Even with these critical elements, China's defense production is six times the US. Do we need to worry about China beyond Taiwan? I don't think so. The rationale for losing Taiwan will be Taiwan has hardly made a defensive effort on their own behalf and there is some truth to that. Further China does not have a blue water navy. Their ships would struggle for support beyond the South China Sea. But will they take Taiwan while Trump is in office? That's Trump's ego and it will still wound him.

Meanwhile life seems to go on as normal. The stock market seems, seems to be brushing off tariffs and a nervous bond market. Is it just me? Don't things seem so much worse than so many others seem to make out? I feel like I'm gaslighting myself.

 

[Elixir]

China's rare earth exports grind to a halt.
And about our ability to produce and process these rare earth elements:
The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions.
Even with these critical elements, China's defense production is six times the US. Do we need to worry about China beyond Taiwan? I don't think so. The rationale for losing Taiwan will be Taiwan has hardly made a defensive effort on their own behalf and there is some truth to that. Further China does not have a blue water navy. Their ships would struggle for support beyond the South China Sea. But will they take Taiwan while Trump is in office? That's Trump's ego and it will still wound him.

Meanwhile life seems to go on as normal. The stock market seems, seems to be brushing off tariffs and a nervous bond market. Is it just me? Don't things seem so much worse than so many others seem to make out? I feel like I'm gaslighting myself.

"He who laughs has not yet heard the terrible news"
- Brecht

The effects of trump tariffs have not yet been felt. But they are coming, as sure as little green apples.
The inflationary effect will be dramatic, unemployment will be rampant, more people will fall below the poverty line, and Trumpsuckers will wail and moan about how Biden/Obama/Hillary did this to them.
But all that is in the future. Right now all we have, is what is well known to be the most reliable economic predictor there is:
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE IS CRATERING
I'm not any kind of macro-economist but I believe those who warn that this current state is a pre-cursor to recession or depression. And that is even without considering all the aggravating factors that the Trump regime has artificially piled - and threatens to pile - on top of these dangerous conditions. This could be dire indeed for non-billionaires. Probably so dire that by 2026 election time, it will be the bugaboo from which Trump will assert "only I can save you". And he will be correct in that assertion, unless dems take over 60% of both houses in Congress in what promises to be the most rigged midterm election (if any) ever held.
Of course the Apricot has no intention to save anyone or anything except his own corrupt ass, and will do nothing whatsoever to mitigate the pain he will visit upon Americans, including 99.9% of his idiot followers.

 

[ImGod]

I think the market has priced in 10% tariffs and is hoping many sectors get carve outs.

I don't think people have priced tariffs in yet. Price increases at the retail level are next.

Many retailers have upped inventory pre tariff, but will need to increase prices on goods now to buy the next round without borrowing too much.

Everything is in a funk waiting for the next signal. Stocks, bonds, retailers, consumers, nobody knows what is going on or can guess what may happen.

Eventually it settles into something we can work with or everything crashes due to uncertainty with investors and customers.

 

[Elixir]

Eventually it settles into something we can work with or everything crashes due to uncertainty with investors and customers.

Or both. Trumpsuckers willingly suffer, as long as it's at the hands of The Felon. The rest of us form an insufficient majority to override the destruction.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The situation creates “immediate and irreparable harm to California, the largest economy, manufacturing, and agriculture state in the nation,” the office said.

Gov Newsom and CA AG to hold a press conference at 1330 ET.

Because our neutered Congress won’t.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The market is really wanting Trump to either cause a recession or not and move on. The indecision is killing the market. Up 800 , down 800, up 800, down 800.

Trump's recent kinda pause on tariffs that'll lose the GOP the 2026 mid-terms must really be killing people. Are we doing this or not?!

 

[Elixir]

Up 800 , down 800, up 800, down 800.

Perfect for a … uh … well informed… options buyer. Like say, Empty Gee.