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How should west respond to potential (likely) Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Shadowy Man said:
I guess we are just not understanding each other. Maybe a language issue. Sorry.
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I think it is quite simple. I have complete faith in my brother, but he may want to do business in a way different from mine.
I have full faith in my brother that he is just as interested in our business as I am. - "Brother, do it this way."
Do I make myself clear? Ways may differ but not the intent.
 
aupmanyav said:
local legends suggest that anyone who sees a Yeti may face danger
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Amazing. Local legends also indicate that giving Putin land because you having land that Putin wants, hurts Putin’s feelings, and only results in Putin wanting more land.
The difference? The Yeti stories “are not substantiated by scientific evidence."
 
aupmanyav said:
Elixir said:
Pootey eats his neighbors.
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Not much different from Trump. He wants Canada to merge into US and has eyes on Greenland.
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I agree Trump’s character is similar, but Trump is a wuss, and his defective character does not reflect that of the Nation he betrays every day.
But let know when he amasses hundreds of thousands of troops and tanks at the Canadian border, calling it a “military exercise”, then tries to roll on into Ottowa.
More likely he will station troops where nobody can even find them in remote stretches of Greenland, and declare some kind of meaningless victory to boost his ego.

Your false equivalence is stunning, stupid and I suspect, disingenuous.
 
aupmanyav said:
Elixir said:
Pootey eats his neighbors.
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Not much different from Trump. He wants Canada to merge into US and has eyes on Greenland.
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You are not really helping me :)
Putin really has nothing in common with Trump. And situation with Canada is very different from situation with Ukraine.
Canada has not threatened US to be annexed. It's just one of these stupid imperialist ideas Trump had himself or had someone tell him.
 
Elixir said:
Loren Pechtel said:
aupmanyav said:
Loren Pechtel said:
So what if they alarmed Russia? That is not an act of war, Russia has no justification for attacking.
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What happens when you alarm a dog, a bear or a tiger?
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They're animals. So you're saying Russia is an animal?

No tigers around here, we do have mountain lions. And I hike in mountain lion territory--and I would expect any I encounter to act as normal and leave, almost certainly before I was ever aware of their presence. They're only a problem if cornered or you mess with their kittens.

Biggest thing I've ever spooked (at least that I was aware of) was a herd of bighorn sheep--they were running before I was aware of their presence.
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Same here, we have mountain lions and bears, coyotes, foxes, elk, moose, bighorn, deer... for some reason every time I ever alarmed any of them they ran away.*
Us 'Murkinz, WE be the big animals. Not just Ruskies.
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Ruskies, also. Mostly dealing with wildlife is simple--everything out there will by default classify us as large predators. Large predators aren't on the menu for anything bigger than a bug that lives in the US and lives on land. Thus your objective is to avoid convincing whatever you have encountered (or whatever's momma) that you are a threat that must be defended against.

Where you get problems is while the lions and bears don't regard us as food they are not above stealing from us if they think they can. Mostly this is bears after our food, but sufficiently in the middle of nowhere this is a problem with mountain lions vs kids and pets. (And small things can be a theft problem, also. I have encountered squirrels that clearly understood that packs might contain goodies.)

Elixir said:
* Cept the one time I saw something breaking into a grain room, stopped and got out of my car, then fled when I saw it was a baby bear. Wanted no part of that!
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Yeah. The #1 rule out there: don't mess with the babies.
 
barbos said:
Loren Pechtel said:
barbos said:
Russian drones do not need stupid polish SIM cards. Seriusly, how fucking dumb one have to be to believe that shit? and from euromaidanpress of all places? Even poles themselves (according to polls) believe it was ukrainians.
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You would use local SIM cards because for a cheap weapon system using the local cellular network is by far the easiest approach. And you don't want to use non-local ones because that would stand out.
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What part of "These were decoy drones" don't you understand?
What would be the point of these SIMs ?

Polish are lying, most likely there were no drones at all. It's all chemical weapons in Syria over again.
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Decoy for what? You shouldn't have had anything in the area to be decoying for.

And the point of local SIMs is that it's much stealthier to control a drone via the local cellular grid.
 
aupmanyav said:
Loren Pechtel said:
and I would expect any I encounter to act as normal and leave, almost certainly before I was ever aware of their presence.
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Elixir said:
Cept the one time I saw something breaking into a grain room, stopped and got out of my car, then fled when I saw it was a baby bear.
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True for Himalayas too.
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Exactly. The only things that realistically hunt humans are polar bears, really big snakes (snakes have no inhibition on hunting humans but snakes eat their meals whole and won't hunt anything they can't swallow) and alligators/crocodiles.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
barbos said:
Loren Pechtel said:
barbos said:
Russian drones do not need stupid polish SIM cards. Seriusly, how fucking dumb one have to be to believe that shit? and from euromaidanpress of all places? Even poles themselves (according to polls) believe it was ukrainians.
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You would use local SIM cards because for a cheap weapon system using the local cellular network is by far the easiest approach. And you don't want to use non-local ones because that would stand out.
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What part of "These were decoy drones" don't you understand?
What would be the point of these SIMs ?

Polish are lying, most likely there were no drones at all. It's all chemical weapons in Syria over again.
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Decoy for what? You shouldn't have had anything in the area to be decoying for.
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Exactly, so why in your theory it was russian (launched/controlled by russians) drones?
Keep in mind that these WERE in fact decoy drones, poles said it themselves.
Loren Pechtel said:
And the point of local SIMs is that it's much stealthier to control a drone via the local cellular grid.
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Am I talking to a robot?
What part of "decoy drones do not need terminal visual guidance by the operator" you do not understand?
 
Elixir said:
I agree Trump’s character is similar, but Trump is a wuss, and his defective character does not reflect that of the Nation he betrays every day.
But let know when he amasses hundreds of thousands of troops and tanks at the Canadian border, calling it a “military exercise”, then tries to roll on into Ottowa.
More likely he will station troops where nobody can even find them in remote stretches of Greenland, and declare some kind of meaningless victory to boost his ego.
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Not different from Putin.
Europe will not allow him to do that (150 US personnel are at Pituffik base. Does that make Greenland a US territory?).
Like "I said no war or no trade" to India and Pakistan, "I brought the end to the war."
His own people and Pakistan say that it is a lie (Rubio, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar. He has a Kashmiri ancestry)
May Allah grant Trump his covered Nobel Prize.
 
Loren Pechtel said:
Exactly. The only things that realistically hunt humans are polar bears, really big snakes (snakes have no inhibition on hunting humans but snakes eat their meals whole and won't hunt anything they can't swallow) and alligators/crocodiles.
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We do not have big snakes (Anacondas). Cobras are poisonous but would not harm humans if not trifled with. Crocs are sometimes, at some places, problem. The recent floods brought crocs to cities (Vadodara, Gujarat)

iu
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Ukraine has hit Russia's oil industry hard enough to cause worry about potential cut backs. Ukraine's strikes have caused other producers and refiners within Russia to operate at full capacity. This means units can not be brought off line for maintenance. Critically, refiners need to do the necessary maintenance to switch to winter blend gasoline in October.
I hope there are plans for more strikes in the coming weeks. The price of gasoline in Russia will tell the tale. Currently gasoline prices in Russia are at their historic highs so says The Moscow Times. High gasoline prices tend to make people grumble.
Ukraine needs to start hitting Russia with fatter drones and missiles. What they are currently using just do not do enough damage to cause lasting down time.
Dude from CSIS explains:
 
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