2028 Presidential Election

[ZiprHead]

Ocasio-Cortez highlights poll showing her beating Vance in 2028

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), who is increasingly seen as a potential Democratic candidate for president in 2028, on Wednesday highlighted a poll showing her beating Vice President Vance in a hypothetical match-up.

The poll from The Argument/Verasight asked respondents what their voting preference would be if Vance and Ocasio-Cortez were the candidates in the 2028 race, and 51 percent backed the New York Democrat while 49 percent backed the Ohio Republican.

“Bloop!” Ocasio-Cortez responded to the poll on the social platform X.

 

[Tigers!]

I was wondering when a thread of this title would arise.

Its all very well for people to say they will vote for X almost 3 years out but you need them on the day.

 

[TV and credit cards]

It hasn’t even been a year, the slowest fucking year in the history of years.

 

[GenesisNemesis]

She wrote "bloop"? Nah, clearly disqualified, not presidential material whatsoever (sarcasm).

 

[Swammerdami]

I am pessimistic enough to have little confidence there will be a legitimate election in 2028. (I expect the Fascists to refuse to seat California's 2026 Congessional winners.)

But Polymarket shows the following probabilities for Who will be elected POTUS in 2028?

• 28% Vance
• 20% Newsom
• 9% Rubio
• 8% AOC
• 4% Trump
• 2% Buttigieg
• 2% Shapiro
• 2% Harris
• 2% Dwayne Johnson
• 2% DeSantis
• several, each < 2%

Tim Walz and Mark Kelly appeal to me -- any chance for them?
(A problem with predicting years ahead on a market like this is that your funds get tied up, not earning interest. It looks to me like Polymarket is addressing this to encourage bettors.)

(Would there be interest in some prediction gambling here at IIDB? Only pretend money would be at stake, of course.)

Ocasio-Cortez highlights poll showing her beating Vance in 2028 ....
“Bloop!” Ocasio-Cortez responded to the poll on the social platform X.

What does "Bloop!" MEAN?

I do LOVE Alexandria. But as much as I admire her, I don't think she would be a particularly good President (maybe when she's more experienced); nor do I think she'd be a successful candidate. Beating Vance -- by far the most obnoxious candidate in history I think -- is a very low bar. I think Polymarket's numbers are wacky, though the high Vance number may include a high chance that by then he will be the incumbent.

 

[Tigers!]

I am pessimistic enough to have little confidence there will be a legitimate election in 2028. (I expect the Fascists to refuse to seat California's 2026 Congessional winners.)

But Polymarket shows the following probabilities for Who will be elected POTUS in 2028?

• 28% Vance
• 20% Newsom
• 9% Rubio
• 8% AOC
• 4% Trump
• 2% Buttigieg
• 2% Shapiro
• 2% Harris
• 2% Dwayne Johnson
• 2% DeSantis
• several, each < 2%

Tim Walz and Mark Kelly appeal to me -- any chance for them?
(A problem with predicting years ahead on a market like this is that your funds get tied up, not earning interest. It looks to me like Polymarket is addressing this to encourage bettors.)

(Would there be interest in some prediction gambling here at IIDB? Only pretend money would be at stake, of course.)

Do you accept Bitcoin?

 

[Derec]

Tim Walz and Mark Kelly appeal to me -- any chance for them?

Tim Walz is a nonstarter. Losing vice-presidential candidates are not really in a good position to run for president. The only one I can think of who got the nomination after losing was Bob Dole, and even he had to wait 20 years. He did run in the 1980 primary, but did not do very well.
He is also not running for reelection in 2026 because of the Somali Daycare Fraud Scandal.

Mark Kelly is a far more interesting choice. But wasn't he rejected by Kamala as running mate because she didn't think he was a good speaker on the campaign trail?

(Would there be interest in some prediction gambling here at IIDB? Only pretend money would be at stake, of course.)

Can I buy (using Monopoly money) some "no"s on the Knucklehead and also on Kamala? I don't think either are viable choices.

What does "Bloop!" MEAN?

Apparently, a  bloop is an underwater, low-frequency sound generated by non-tectonic cryoseisms. But that's not important right now.

I do LOVE Alexandria.

Not as much as lpetrich, I bet.

But as much as I admire her, I don't think she would be a particularly good President (maybe when she's more experienced); nor do I think she'd be a successful candidate. Beating Vance -- by far the most obnoxious candidate in history I think -- is a very low bar. I think Polymarket's numbers are wacky, though the high Vance number may include a high chance that by then he will be the incumbent.

I do not think she would play well in swing states. The nationwide polls do not take into account the electoral college. It does not matter how well she can run up the score in states like NY or CA, as that does not get her a single extra electoral vote.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Gov. Shapiro and Newsom seem the front runners. Ocasio-Cortez is bettered suited to replace Schumer in a term or two in the Senate for NY.

 

[unapologetic]

(Would there be interest in some prediction gambling here at IIDB? Only pretend money would be at stake, of course.)

I'll put 10bucks¹ and a Bitcoin token² on Cory Booker. And another 10bucks¹ and Bitcoin token² on Harris.


¹pretend money, right?
²(as seen on every article about Bitcoin)

 

[Tigers!]

(Would there be interest in some prediction gambling here at IIDB? Only pretend money would be at stake, of course.)

I'll put 10bucks¹ and a Bitcoin token² on Cory Booker. And another 10bucks¹ and Bitcoin token² on Harris.


¹pretend money, right?
²(as seen on every article about Bitcoin)

Since Harris lost > $1B USD on her fling at the presidency why would you bet on her?
If you have spare coin of the realm I have a gold Reef for you

 

[BH]

Franklin Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920 and lost but he went on to run and win for president in 1932.

 

[jonatha]

Franklin Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920 and lost but he went on to run and win for president in 1932.

We're talking sitting VPs that run for president and fail. They tend to only get the one chance

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Franklin Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920 and lost but he went on to run and win for president in 1932.

Almost everyone is dead from then (like on the entire planet), so technically true (kind of), not particularly common. I wouldn't expect Walz or Harris to really haven't a second go.

 

[BH]

It is sad really because I think Harris would have been a good president.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

It is sad really because I think Harris would have been a good president.

Harris suffered from three major issues. Incumbency, inflation, and the Biden Administration doing the absolute worst ever job of demonstrating the progress they had made in their presidency. In addition to the whole switching people on the ticket issue.

 

[Elixir]

Since Harris lost > $1B USD on her fling at the presidency why would you bet on her?

If she could have wasted what Trump did she would have beaten him badly.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear

Beshear is my first choice, but I will vote for any Democrat who wins in the primaries. I don't think AOC has a chance and while I like Harris, I don't see her having a chance. In fact, Imo, this fucking country isn't going to elect a woman in my life time, Behear is a Democrat who won in a very red state. He's young, and somewhat moderate but very decent and seems open minded. Any Democrat who could win in a state as red as Kentucky must be doing something right.

Andy Beshear

Democratic Party
Governor of Kentucky
Tenure
2019 - Present
Term ends
2027
Years in position
6
Predecessor: Matt Bevin (R)
Prior offices:
Attorney General of Kentucky
Years in office: 2016 - 2019
Successor: Daniel Cameron (R)
Compensation
Base salary
$164,355
Elections and appointments
Last election
November 7, 2023
Education
High school
Henry Clay High School
Bachelor's
Vanderbilt University
Law
University of Virginia School of Law
Personal
Profession
Attorney
Contact
Official website

Andy Beshear (Democratic Party) is the Governor of Kentucky. He assumed office on December 10, 2019. His current term ends on December 7, 2027.

Beshear received a bachelor's degree from Vanderbilt University and a J.D. from the University of Virginia. After graduating from law school, Beshear was a partner at Stites & Harbison, where he specialized in consumer and nonprofit law.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-Bio-1">[1]</a>

Beshear won the 2015 Kentucky Attorney General election, defeating Whitney Westerfield (R) 50.1%-49.9%. As attorney general, Beshear sued then-Gov. Matt Bevin (R) on four separate occasions, winning two of those suits. The Kentucky Supreme Court ruled 5-2 in favor of Beshear, who sued Bevin for abusing executive powers as governor by wrongfully making budget cuts to the state's university system without the Kentucky General Assembly's approval.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-2">[2]</a> The court also unanimously struck down Kentucky Senate Bill 151 regarding teachers' pensions, which Bevin had signed into law.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-3">[3]</a> According to Beshear's website, he focused on suing opioid manufacturers and distributors, arresting child predators, protecting seniors from fraud and abuse, and protecting teachers' pensions.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-govky-4">[4]</a>

Beshear won the 2019 election for governor of Kentucky against Bevin 49.2%-48.8%. During his campaign, Beshear said, "Governors have a moral responsibility to act with decency, to do their best, to provide good-paying jobs, and to provide justice to all Kentuckians."<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-5">[5]</a> Beshear campaigned on his healthcare and education policies and said he would enact consumer protections based on the Affordable Care Act and increase public education funding.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-6">[6]</a><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-7">[7]</a>Beshear's 2019 victory changed Kentucky's trifecta status from a Republican trifecta to a divided government.

As governor, Beshear has supported infrastructure projects to build the Brent Spence Companion Bridge and the Mountain Parkway Expansion in Eastern Kentucky. Beshear signed legislation legalizing sports betting and cannabis for medical use and expanding access to Medicaid.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-govky-4">[4]</a><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-8">[8]</a> According to Beshear's website, Kentucky was one of eight states that decreased drug overdose deaths during his administration after signing two pieces of legislation that increased resources for drug treatment and recovery programs.<a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-govky-4">[4]</a><a href="https://ballotpedia.org/Andy_Beshear#cite_note-9">[9]</a>

Beshear won re-election in 2023, defeating former Attorney General Daniel Cameron (R) 52.5%-47.5% — a 4.6 percentage point margin-of-victory increase compared to 2019.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Beshear doesn't get nearly as much attention as does Shapiro or Newsom. But yes, he has managed to do very well in a dark reddish purple state. I don't see getting KY in the electoral college though. And Walz / Kaine were compromise VP candidates that were on losing tickets. Beshear isn't taking any southern states, unlike Clinton had managed before Gingrich broke Congress.

To me, the question is, are suburbans voting for the candidate? I don't see that being necessarily true with Beshear.

 

[southernhybrid]

Beshear doesn't get nearly as much attention as does Shapiro or Newsom. But yes, he has managed to do very well in a dark reddish purple state. I don't see getting KY in the electoral college though. And Walz / Kaine were compromise VP candidates that were on losing tickets. Beshear isn't taking any southern states, unlike Clinton had managed before Gingrich broke Congress.

To me, the question is, are suburbans voting for the candidate? I don't see that being necessarily true with Beshear.

I read some information on him that said he does plan on running, but he needs to get out and interact with more people, as he has a rather quiet personality and isn't well known. After Trump, that is just the type of person I'd like to see in the WH.

Time will tell. Newson is very popular right now, but I'm not sure he'd be such a good choice, although one of my dogs would be a better choice compared to the mentally disturbed person we have in office now. The other thing like about Beshear is that he's not filthy rich, and doesn't seem overly concerned about how much money he has. The would also be a nice change. Plus, I'm not convinced that Beshear couldn't take any Southern states. There is a lot of poverty in the South and he does a good job of supporting programs that help the poor and the average American. Despite growing up in the Northeast, I've lived in the South for most of my life. My small town. has a fairly high percentage of poverty, and all of my friends vote for Dems, regardless of their race, although we still do have some idiot Trump supporters. One of my favorite residents where I volunteer is a Dem and I'm going to try and help him get registered to vote. Getting out the vote is the most important part. I asked and every one of the residents in the assisted living facility where I volunteer has a real ID, so they should all be able to vote, if they want. Georgia does require an ID to vote, but you have to have one to see a doctor here, so most everyone has one. We can do this, despite heading towards autocracy. I don't think it's too late.

JD Vance is expected to be the Republican candidate and that gives me hope. The man lacks charisma and has done nothing but suck up to Trump. More people are waking up to the fact that voting for Trump was a mistake, so there is hope, imo. Anyway.....one can only hope.

 

[Derec]

Franklin Roosevelt ran for vice president in 1920 and lost but he went on to run and win for president in 1932.

I didn't know FDR was a running mate before. Interesting.

But still, even a political talent like FDR waited 12 years and had a stint as NY Governor during that time. And Walz is certainly no FDR.