Yet another war, this time with Iran

[SLD]

Crude oil prices surpass $100 a barrel as the Iran war impedes production and shipping
$100, a psychological kick in the crotch. I just got a tank full of midgrade for $3.99 per.

107 for WTI just now. Up $15 today alone. I’d bet on it not stopping until at least $150 range. If we’re lucky. Imagine what that will do to interest rates! Trump is upset over Powell’s higher rates and wants to accelerate the economy. But everything is about to get bigly expensive all of a sudden. Every grocery delivery just effectively almost doubled. Kiss affordability out your ass. Watch the markets fucking implode Monday morning. Actually the Dow futures are already down 800 points and the markets haven’t technically opened. They’re down almost 10% of their high.

This is insane. If people think this is temporary, they’re nuts.

Gotta admit, I'm a little bit confused. Will this cause interest rates to spike? I understand inflation and interest rates rising due to a robust economy but this isn't that. This is inflation due solely to increased transportation costs. If other aspect of the economy are trending downward, like employment numbers, will this still move interest rates higher?

This is much more dire for other countries. For example, I just read Japan gets 70% of it's oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Could this crack Republican support? This is a biggie. This is the price of oil for the world. And Iran just gave us a big fuck you by putting Mojtaba in charge. What do we do, kill him too?

The rise in oil prices will cause a general price increase due to transportation costs. Every good you buy needs oil to get to the market. But with rising asset prices, the fed has further trouble finding buyers unless they raise prices. Today’s economic news is that people are dumping treasuries. So to get more buyers, we have to raise rates. Or not fund the government.

The next moves are up to China. They could do a variety of things to us attacking their friend, including selling them hypersonic missiles, to dumping treasuries, to even invading Taiwan. After all, with the U.S. busy dealing with Iran, it’s a perfect time to strike.

The longer this drags on, the worsening the potential outcomes. Trump thought he could contain this to just a few strikes and a few retaliatory strikes from them.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

This is what happens when leaders approach war with a 1950s mindset in a hyper-globalized economy. The missiles land locally but the economic shockwaves hit the entire planet.

It isn't quite like that. That'd be giving them too much credit.

The Trump Admin is looking at sunken ships, destroyed platforms, etc... The US and Israel are doing a good job on pulling the fangs out of the Iranian military. The trouble is, the Iranians don't need a major military force to scare the Strait of Hormuz into a shutdown. They need just some relatively cheap stuff that is relatively mobile to impact the global economy enough that pressure is applied in many ways on a lot of nations then the entire globe. Iran doesn't have to win (again, why we haven't done this to this point), the regime just needs to not lose. And while the US/Israel are scoring big points against the Iranian military, Iran is using their cheat code and pressing on the carotid artery known as the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump Admin apparently was too stupid to understand that a weaker nation uses alternate methods to fight a war. I'd say they were deluded, but you need to be educated to at least delude oneself of something. Hegseth says this is going at the US's schedule. It isn't. It will go at the schedule of the globe's willingness to pay economically for this poorly thought out military intervention.

 

[Jarhyn]

https://wapo.st/4cuZ5DH

War with Iran spreading economic damage far beyond oil and gas markets​

The conflict has hit Europe and Asia harder than the United States, with rising shipping costs and energy prices.

As the U.S.-Israeli assault on Iran enters a second week, the war’s economic casualties extend well beyond the oil and natural gas shipments that normally transit the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of several international airports in the conflict zone, including the world’s busiest in Dubai, idled nearly one-fifth of global airfreight capacity, interrupting shipments of consumer electronics, pharmaceuticals and precious metals.

But the pain is not being felt equally. The cost of shipping goods by air from Asia to Europe is up 45 percent since the war began, more than twice the increase for sending items from Asia to the United States, said Ryan Petersen, chief executive of Flexport, a freight forwarder and logistics company in San Francisco.

The shipping impact illustrates a broader economic truth: The war is hitting the economies of Europe and Asia harder and faster than it is striking the United States.

“Europe and Asia are heavily dependent on energy imports, so that alone makes them more vulnerable to negative macroeconomic spillovers from the Iran war,” said Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund. “Being closer geographically to the hostilities also makes Europe and Asia more vulnerable to shock waves from the war.”
That does not mean Americans will escape unscathed. Gasoline prices now average $3.41 a gallon, up from $2.98 one week ago, according to AAA. Farmers face higher bills for critical crop nutrients, and additional supply chain headaches are certain if the Iran conflict continues longer than the Trump administration anticipates.

Article shouldn't be behind a paywall, although WaPo sometimes asks for info before allowing non subscribers to read so called shared articles. This might be the article that said a desalination plant was bombed by the US, leaving people without drinking water, so Iran retaliated by coming one in another country. This could cause much worse problems than just the ones related to oil. I've read so many depressing pieces lately that I can't keep them straight. Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

oops. I meant to post this last night. Not sure if all this shit hasn't been mentioned numerous times, but whatever.

I mean, did I not say this was more going to be an attack on Europe using Iran as a catspaw?

 

[Gospel]

This is what happens when leaders approach war with a 1950s mindset in a hyper-globalized economy. The missiles land locally but the economic shockwaves hit the entire planet.

It isn't quite like that. That'd be giving them too much credit.

The Trump Admin is looking at sunken ships, destroyed platforms, etc... The US and Israel are doing a good job on pulling the fangs out of the Iranian military. The trouble is, the Iranians don't need a major military force to scare the Strait of Hormuz into a shutdown. They need just some relatively cheap stuff that is relatively mobile to impact the global economy enough that pressure is applied in many ways on a lot of nations then the entire globe. Iran doesn't have to win (again, why we haven't done this to this point), the regime just needs to not lose. And while the US/Israel are scoring big points against the Iranian military, Iran is using their cheat code and pressing on the carotid artery known as the Strait of Hormuz.

The Trump Admin apparently was too stupid to understand that a weaker nation uses alternate methods to fight a war. I'd say they were deluded, but you need to be educated to at least delude oneself of something. Hegseth says this is going at the US's schedule. It isn't. It will go at the schedule of the globe's willingness to pay economically for this poorly thought out military intervention.

My point is that the current response from Iran was predictable, and even regime change wouldn’t automatically create stability. Internal opposition to leadership doesn’t automagically mean alignment with U.S. or Israeli interests. If Trump somehow got to choose the next regime in Iran, whoever ended up in power after years of brutality and instability would likely end up a crowd surfing corpse.

I see a similar issue when proposals like “arm the Kurds” got floated and then quickly softened after regional pushback. That suggests the full complexity of those relationships weren't accounted for before our blue eyed blunder blubbered it out. Kurdish populations span multiple countries, each with different alliances and political realities. Their cooperation with the U.S., in my opinion, is about survival and immediate interests rather than any real long-term alignment. That kind of complexity is easy to underestimate when leadership surrounds itself with people who reinforce bullshit assumptions.

That kind of thinking feels very early–Cold War to me: assuming that replacing regimes or backing certain groups will automatically produce alignment with U.S. interests. They thought it worked back then, and it often didn’t, and here we are again with people like Lindsey Graham and Hegseth acting as if they can will it, or bomb it, into working.

 

[laughing dog]

I wonder if Putin has thanked his puppet for helping Russia finance its war in Ukraine.

 

[southernhybrid]

https://apnews.com/article/trump-iran-russia-intelligence-35afae34198408d670941f971d383378

WASHINGTON (AP) — Russia has provided Iran with information that could help Tehran strike American warships, aircraft and other assets in the region, according to two officials familiar with U.S. intelligence on the matter.

The officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly on the sensitive matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that the U.S. intelligence has not uncovered that Russia is directing Iran on what to do with the information as the U.S. and Israel continue their bombardment and Iran fires retaliatory salvos at American assets and allies in the Persian Gulf.

Still, it’s the first indication that Moscow has sought to get involved in the war that the U.S. and Israel launched on Iran a week ago. Russia is in the rare club of countries that maintains friendly relations with Tehran, which has faced years of isolation over its nuclear program and its support of proxy groups that have wreaked havoc in the Middle East, including Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis.

And sadly, in addition to all the innocent people who have died in the Mideast, another American soldier was killed. But, the felon doesn't care. To him, they are losers.

 

[SLD]

Escalation only favors Iran:

Why Escalation Favors Iran

America and Israel may have bitten off more than they can chew.

www.foreignaffairs.com

Pretty much what a lot of people have been saying here. Iran cannot attack the US head on, so it seeks to broaden the attacks and effectively force the U.S. to invade with ground troops, where they will be worn down and it will be politically unpopular at home.

The only real hope is that Trump surrenders. As the article points out, Trump has a serious dilemma on his hands. If he continues the strikes he risks long term political and economic fallout. If he declares victory and quits, he risks being labelled for basically surrendering; but the public may forget in 6 months. The problem is that Iran may not agree. If they keep up with attacks on shipping in the straits then Trump has no choice but to continue to try to degrade their capabilities. But he may have to escalate. Ground troops? What happens if China objects and says that's a bridge too far for them to accept and make threats to defend Iran? Russia is already providing them with the necessary intel. China is saying they will give them missile technology.

That's why I say the only real option is for Trump to "surrender." That is he has to stop the bombing but also go further. Maybe he has to offer to help them rebuild their infrastructure? Gives them funds to pay for reconstruction? What else?

Can he do that and politically survive? He has to find a way to make a deal whereby they agree to allow shipments of oil and they too get to ship oil to China. Trump's gotta blink. Not sure he has that in him. He's looking at a serious loss in the polls come the November mid terms.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

In a move that'll surprise few, mostly because no one knows it is even a thing, the WEC has postponed the Qatar 1812 event that was supposed to occur in late March. Season will start in April in Imola... assuming Trump hasn't spread the war to Europe by April.

 

[crazyfingers]

The only real hope is that Trump surrenders.

Trumpy could claim that he has accomplished the objective and quit because he never told a consistent story on what the goal is or what constitutes a win.

(OF course he never made a case for starting this war in the first place.)

I say that the situation right now is so utterly predictable that Trump and his goons are incompetent fools. If Trumpy hadn't fired all the experts in State, DoD and HSA maybe someone could have knocked some sense into his head but I doubt it. Trumpy doesn't like experts when his "Gut" tells him something else.

 

[bilby]

Gotta admit, I'm a little bit confused. Will this cause interest rates to spike? I understand inflation and interest rates rising due to a robust economy but this isn't that. This is inflation due solely to increased transportation costs. If other aspect of the economy are trending downward, like employment numbers, will this still move interest rates higher?

Probably. That's how we got stagflation in the '70s.

 

[pood]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

Voted en masse, but the suburban 'cost of living got higher and we don't understand how massive shocks from a pandemic can impact economies' folks that tipped it in Trump's balance.

 

[pood]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

Voted en masse, but the suburban 'cost of living got higher and we don't understand how massive shocks from a pandemic can impact economies' folks that tipped it in Trump's balance.

Right. Let’s face it. Most Americans, not just the standard-issue hicks and hillbillies, are fucking stupid.

Suburban mousewife: “Oh my goodness, the price of eggs are too high so I am going to vote for a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the government! Yeah, that makes sense!”

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

Voted en masse, but the suburban 'cost of living got higher and we don't understand how massive shocks from a pandemic can impact economies' folks that tipped it in Trump's balance.

Right. Let’s face it. Most Americans, not just the standard-issue hicks and hillbillies, are fucking stupid.

Suburban mousewife: “Oh my goodness, the price of eggs are too high so I am going to vote for a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the government! Yeah, that makes sense!”

While women in the suburbs were also a tipping point, their spouses were more likely to vote for Trump than they were.

The most annoying part of all of it was how women said they cared about reproductive freedom, but then voted for Trump anyway because prices. And I say annoying because us non-insane males have had to rely on women voters helping steer elections in the not insane direction, because apparently we can't trust white men to vote intelligently. To see them make the same mistake as the strong majority of males made... with of all people Trump, just... well, kind of want to give up really.

 

[southernhybrid]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

You forgot about the wealthy, greedy ones like my brother in law who has a doctorate degree. Don't fool yourself, plenty of people voted for the felon who had college degrees, but not an ounce of common sense. I'm more pissed at the ones who never bothered to vote, especially in swing states. But, I think we've all vented about this before. I know several MAGA females who are very nice, caring women, including a nurse I worked with briefly and kept in touch with for years, But a few months ago, she texted me and I discovered that she still supports Trump. I can't deal with that!. She also thinks that Muslims are taking over the country. Sound familiar? Ok. Enough ranting.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Speaking of ranting... CBS is reporting Trump is considering mission accomplished, maybe done with Iran. The mission is "very complete".

Also though:

When asked about ⁠the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that ships are moving through now, but he is "thinking about taking it over."

Markets liked hearing it though.

 

[pood]

Mousewife: Hubby, eggs are too expensive!

Hubby: I’m a cop! It’s all Joe Biden’s fault, goddamn it!

Mousewife: But hubby, whatever shall we do???

Hubby: I’m a cop! Vote for Donald Trump, goddamn it!

Mousewife: But hubby, isn’t he a convicted felon who tried to overthrow the government?

Hubby: I’m a cop! Shut up, mousewife, and vote as you’re told, goddamn it!

 

[ideologyhunter]

Thanks Donny for fucking up the world!

The real thanks goes to the vast legions of American hicks and hillbillies for voting this evil buffoon into office.

You forgot about the wealthy, greedy ones like my brother in law who has a doctorate degree. Don't fool yourself, plenty of people voted for the felon who had college degrees, but not an ounce of common sense. I'm more pissed at the ones who never bothered to vote, especially in swing states. But, I think we've all vented about this before. I know several MAGA females who are very nice, caring women, including a nurse I worked with briefly and kept in touch with for years, But a few months ago, she texted me and I discovered that she still supports Trump. I can't deal with that!. She also thinks that Muslims are taking over the country. Sound familiar? Ok. Enough ranting.

Mary Trump was a guest on Deep State Radio a few days ago, and had this exchange with the host, David Rothkopf.
Rothkopf: This is the moment in world history -- since the time that Hitler blew his own brains out in a bunker -- that the fate of the world is most impacted by the psychological dysfunction of a single man.
Trump: ...He's so grotesque, he's so weak, he's so deficient and depraved and gaudy...What kind of person looks at him and thinks, "Oh yeah, that's my guy?"...It's embarrassing and inexplicable.
(from DSR podcast, currently viewable on YouTube. Also with Rothkopf's description of the 'creeping tree rot' on Trump's neck.)

 

[crazyfingers]

Speaking of ranting... CBS is reporting Trump is considering mission accomplished, maybe done with Iran. The mission is "very complete".

Also though:

When asked about ⁠the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said that ships are moving through now, but he is "thinking about taking it over."

Markets liked hearing it though.

Waiting to see if Iran will let him TACO.

 

[Derec]

Counterprotester threw improvised explosive at anti-Islam event in NYC, police say
No names given out yet. I trust there are inquisitive folks out there shaking the bushes trying to learn them though.

Pa. teens pledged allegiance to ISIS after throwing bomb in NYC, officials say

Their names are Ibrahim Kayumi and Emir Balat.