Yet another war, this time with Iran

[crazyfingers]

107 for WTI just now. Up $15 today alone.

It already pulled back to ~$85/bbl.

I’d bet on it not stopping until at least $150 range. If we’re lucky. Imagine what that will do to interest rates!

I doubt it. Oil production is more spread out, and world economy is less dependent on oil than it used to be even just two decades ago.

Trump is upset over Powell’s higher rates and wants to accelerate the economy. But everything is about to get bigly expensive all of a sudden. Every grocery delivery just effectively almost doubled. Kiss affordability out your ass. Watch the markets fucking implode Monday morning. Actually the Dow futures are already down 800 points and the markets haven’t technically opened. They’re down almost 10% of their high.

This is insane. If people think this is temporary, they’re nuts.

I'd get a refund on that crystal ball of yours.

And now it’s back up to over $100. And talk of it going to $150 if the straits don’t open in the next two weeks. It’s the down range shock that hasn’t set in yet. Refineries are going to shut down, rationing is already happening in some countries. It could ripple through Asian economies and then to us. Qatar is now talking about a complete shutdown if something doesn’t happen in 3 days.

Oil price at two-year high after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could hit $150 a barrel if the Iran conflict continues over the coming weeks.

www.bbc.com

The Dow just dropped 793 points in one day. 8th worst day on record. Haven’t seen this since the last time Trump was president.

Everything could be reversed. But I think Trump will have to basically surrender and give Iran reparations for the war.

Of course he’ll claim it was a great deal.

Well, Trump did this to stocks last March with his crazy "reciprocal" tariffs which were dead blind stupidly calculated on nonsense and the word "reciprocal" being a lie.

 

[Derec]

Since 2020, the US is a net exporter of oil. Oil includes refined oil products. It is a net importer of crude oil. (USA exports and imports of oil)

Oil is oil. Even your link uses "crude oil and petroleum products", not just "oil".

But no matter. In either case US is far better off producing (and being able to transport) great quantities of oil and gas domestically.
This is especially important during times of geopolitical instability, such as when Russia invaded Ukraine (US being able to export LNG to Europe was very important to reduce its reliance on Russian gas) and, of course, now.

The politicians on the left wing of the Democratic party like AOC, Bernie, Warren and even Kamala wanted to hamstring domestic oil and gas production because of ideology.
Example, Elizabeth Warren:

Just idiotic!

 

[barbos]

Just idiotic!

More idiotic than forgetting that Europe/Japan are screwed without ME oil and gas?

 

[Derec]

And now it’s back up to over $100.

Yeah, I filled up today. Just in case prices at the pump also go up.
But even this is a far cry from your claimed 100% increase.

And talk of it going to $150 if the straits don’t open in the next two weeks.

Very doubtful. This has been a real slow motion trainwreck. The war has been going on for a month now, which gives more time for both producers and consumers to adjust. Eliminating unnecessary drives, not idling for a while, and just driving a bit slower can reduce one's gas consumption and those are some very easy behavior changes.
Note also that $150 would not be the highest oil price has been, adjusted for inflation. When the oil price spiked at almost $150 in 2008, that would correspond to about $230/bbl today. Or to put it another way, $150 in 2026 dollars is less than $100 in 2008 dollars.

It’s the down range shock that hasn’t set in yet. Refineries are going to shut down, rationing is already happening in some countries. It could ripple through Asian economies and then to us. Qatar is now talking about a complete shutdown if something doesn’t happen in 3 days.

Oil price at two-year high after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could hit $150 a barrel if the Iran conflict continues over the coming weeks.

www.bbc.com

BBC is now behind the paywall too. Very annoying.
If Qatar does not shut down all production in 3 days, expect oil price to drop again. Markets are rather easily spooked these days, and are prone to overreacting.

The Dow just dropped 793 points in one day. 8th worst day on record. Haven’t seen this since the last time Trump was president.

The first time it was because of COVID. Can't really blame him for that, unlike this time.

Everything could be reversed. But I think Trump will have to basically surrender and give Iran reparations for the war.

That would be the most stupid thing he can do.
No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

 

[Derec]

More idiotic than forgetting that Europe/Japan are screwed without ME oil and gas?

They would be less screwed had US decided to ban fracking and produce less than half oil and gas than we do currently?

 

[Derec]

The only way to correct it is to utterly destroy the ability of the Regime to threaten shipping.

Why do you hate Estonia?

Estonia?

 

[SLD]

And now it’s back up to over $100.

Yeah, I filled up today. Just in case prices at the pump also go up.
But even this is a far cry from your claimed 100% increase.

And talk of it going to $150 if the straits don’t open in the next two weeks.

Very doubtful. This has been a real slow motion trainwreck. The war has been going on for a month now, which gives more time for both producers and consumers to adjust. Eliminating unnecessary drives, not idling for a while, and just driving a bit slower can reduce one's gas consumption and those are some very easy behavior changes.
Note also that $150 would not be the highest oil price has been, adjusted for inflation. When the oil price spiked at almost $150 in 2008, that would correspond to about $230/bbl today. Or to put it another way, $150 in 2026 dollars is less than $100 in 2008 dollars.

It’s the down range shock that hasn’t set in yet. Refineries are going to shut down, rationing is already happening in some countries. It could ripple through Asian economies and then to us. Qatar is now talking about a complete shutdown if something doesn’t happen in 3 days.

Oil price at two-year high after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could hit $150 a barrel if the Iran conflict continues over the coming weeks.

www.bbc.com

BBC is now behind the paywall too. Very annoying.
If Qatar does not shut down all production in 3 days, expect oil price to drop again. Markets are rather easily spooked these days, and are prone to overreacting.

The Dow just dropped 793 points in one day. 8th worst day on record. Haven’t seen this since the last time Trump was president.

The first time it was because of COVID. Can't really blame him for that, unlike this time.

Everything could be reversed. But I think Trump will have to basically surrender and give Iran reparations for the war.

That would be the most stupid thing he can do.
No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

I actually agree that it would be very stupid. Short of a ground war (which the Saudis are pushing for) it may be his only option to seeing it through.

BBC is not behind a paywall. Just use private browsing.

 

[Derec]

Men certainly seem to have a problem with women.

Typical Toni. I mention two politicians, a man and a woman, and you turn it into a "man have a problem with women".

If they speak out strongly, they are strident or schoolmatmish or ball busters.

Well, Warren certainly comes across as schoolmarmish. It is common to talk about politicians' personalities, even or especially in unflattering ways. Why is it ok to describe, for example, Al Gore as wooden, but not Elizabeth Warren as schoolmarmish?

If they speak in more modulated tones, they are wish washy, weak, just fluff.

No, that has nothing to do with "modulated tones". I think Kamala's 2024 campaign was "just fluff" because she eschewed talking about policy until late in the already foreshortened campaign, preferring instead to rely on vibes and memes.
Can Harris win on good vibes alone?: From the Politics Desk
That is a fair criticism, and should not be dismissed just because she happens to be female.

Heaven forbid they be too old or too fat or too thin or too sexy or too maternal or too butch or bitchy or ( insert insult here), while men have zero problem voting for fat, ignorant, privileged blowhards.

No, Chris Christie or Mike Huckabee's weight was never commented on negatively.
Physical, sartorial and personality characteristics, as well as background are always talked about for male politicians. You are living in a phantasy if you believe that only women face such scrutiny. Really, do you have some kind of selective perception?

If you disagree with a position, then you should be able to state where you think the position is incorrect or misguided. I know you never voted for Trump but you have managed to consolidate in a few words exactly what women are up against.

Most relevant to this thread (and we are on very thin ice) would be the opposition of politicians such as AOC, Bernie, Warren, Markey and Kamala to domestic oil and gas production as well as to oil and gas pipelines.
Bernie, Warren and Kamala called for banning fracking when they all ran for president in 2020.

Because I’m sure you never watched the movie, I will simply leave this speech from
The movie Barbie ( which I did not intend to see myself except a dear friend was visiting and wanted to see it plus I liked many of the names attached to the film):

I have not seen the movie, but my understanding is that "Barbieland" is some kind of matriarchy where men like Ken are 2nd class citizens.
And even then, judging from your quote, female characters are complaining about having it harder than men.

Don’t worry, Derec, I can hear your eyes rolling right now as you skip over to the part where you tell me how wrong I am.

Trust me, I am doing all I can to keep my eyeballs from rolling right out of their orbits!

 

[Derec]

I actually agree that it would be very stupid. Short of a ground war (which the Saudis are pushing for) it may be his only option to seeing it through.

Even a ground war (in Asia, no less) would be highly preferable to your solution to capitulating and giving the ayatollahs even more pallets of cash.

BBC is not behind a paywall. Just use private browsing.

That's still a paywall, even if they made it very easy to circumvent.

 

[Derec]

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s are standing by awaiting orders from Iran. If Iran gives that order, the Bab al-Mandab Strait will also be closed to shipping.

When we discussed the Yemeni civil war before, I was arguing that it is a bad idea to let Houthis prevail and thus give Tehran a foothold on the Arabian peninsula. US/Obama should have given more support to that campaign, instead of cancelling weapons sales to KSA over it.

For now, Iran will try and turn Arab nations allied with the US by controlling who gets in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And those Arab nations are biding their time waiting to see what Trump will do and where they need to be. Trump has again extended the deadline, now to April 7th.

For now, Tehran has alienated Arab nations by indiscriminately attacking them.
And Trump would be well advised not to let this deadline pass without decisive action.

 

[barbos]

The only way to correct it is to utterly destroy the ability of the Regime to threaten shipping.

Why do you hate Estonia?

Estonia?

Yes, Estonia.

 

[barbos]

More idiotic than forgetting that Europe/Japan are screwed without ME oil and gas?

They would be less screwed had US decided to ban fracking and produce less than half oil and gas than we do currently?

You are so full of it if you think that it is normal to blow up gas-pipelines and then offer your expensive LNG.
Not to mention US does not have enough gas for Europe.

 

[barbos]

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s are standing by awaiting orders from Iran. If Iran gives that order, the Bab al-Mandab Strait will also be closed to shipping.

When we discussed the Yemeni civil war before, I was arguing that it is a bad idea to let Houthis prevail and thus give Tehran a foothold on the Arabian peninsula. US/Obama should have given more support to that campaign, instead of cancelling weapons sales to KSA over it.

You were decisively defeated in Yemen.

For now, Iran will try and turn Arab nations allied with the US by controlling who gets in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And those Arab nations are biding their time waiting to see what Trump will do and where they need to be. Trump has again extended the deadline, now to April 7th.

For now, Tehran has alienated Arab nations by indiscriminately attacking them.
And Trump would be well advised not to let this deadline pass without decisive action.

You are so deluded if you think that US can win in this war with Iran.

 

[barbos]

For now, Tehran has alienated Arab nations by indiscriminately attacking them.

I think Iran has been very discriminating and proportional so far.

 

[barbos]

Even a ground war (in Asia, no less) would be highly preferable to your solution to capitulating and giving the ayatollahs even more pallets of cash.

But you are going to lose ground war. So you have no cards to play.

 

[bilby]

No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

WTF does "see it through" look like?

What is the victory condition?
How can that be achieved, and how long will it take?

 

[Don2 (Don1 Revised)]

No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

WTF does "see it through" look like?

Let a future Democratic administration leave because it wasn't a good idea so that he can make fun of them.

 

[barbos]

No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

WTF does "see it through" look like?

Let a future Democratic administration leave because it wasn't a good idea so that he can make fun of them.

It's not as if Biden Administraion were not thinking about regime changing Iran.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

And now it’s back up to over $100.

Yeah, I filled up today. Just in case prices at the pump also go up.
But even this is a far cry from your claimed 100% increase.

And talk of it going to $150 if the straits don’t open in the next two weeks.

Very doubtful. This has been a real slow motion trainwreck. The war has been going on for a month now, which gives more time for both producers and consumers to adjust. Eliminating unnecessary drives, not idling for a while, and just driving a bit slower can reduce one's gas consumption and those are some very easy behavior changes.
Note also that $150 would not be the highest oil price has been, adjusted for inflation. When the oil price spiked at almost $150 in 2008, that would correspond to about $230/bbl today. Or to put it another way, $150 in 2026 dollars is less than $100 in 2008 dollars.

It’s the down range shock that hasn’t set in yet. Refineries are going to shut down, rationing is already happening in some countries. It could ripple through Asian economies and then to us. Qatar is now talking about a complete shutdown if something doesn’t happen in 3 days.

Oil price at two-year high after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could hit $150 a barrel if the Iran conflict continues over the coming weeks.

www.bbc.com

BBC is now behind the paywall too. Very annoying.
If Qatar does not shut down all production in 3 days, expect oil price to drop again. Markets are rather easily spooked these days, and are prone to overreacting.

The Dow just dropped 793 points in one day. 8th worst day on record. Haven’t seen this since the last time Trump was president.

The first time it was because of COVID. Can't really blame him for that, unlike this time.

Everything could be reversed. But I think Trump will have to basically surrender and give Iran reparations for the war.

That would be the most stupid thing he can do.
No, now that he started the war, he needs to see it through.

Needs to see it through!? ROFLMFAO!!!

Him with what mobilized army?

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Even a ground war (in Asia, no less) would be highly preferable to your solution to capitulating and giving the ayatollahs even more pallets of cash.

But you are going to lose ground war. So you have no cards to play.

We don't have a ground force large enough to deploy in the first place.

Only way to "finish this" is a deal with IRGC for a secular government.