Yet another war, this time with Iran

[bilby]

We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz.

Literally no assessments missed that. Everybody - every single person - who knew anything about the Persian Gulf knew about that.

Every single plan, wargame, exercise and policy decision in the last half century has had at its heart the understanding that Iran can inflict massive damage on the US, the OECD, and the wider world, by obstructing the Strait of Hormuz; And that there is nothing that can be done to stop them from doing that, if they want to.

What changed was that the policy of the President of the United States and his cabinet became "If a problem cannot be solved, it should just be ignored".

And that Trump Doctrine has been applied at every level. Ignore that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that your allies are warning that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs and the Whitehouse interns are warning that Iran can close the strait.

If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway.

Shit, I bet if Elon Musk stood up and said "If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway", the ovation would last for ten minutes. It's the beating heart of the business bullshit that has become hugely and widely popular in the last decade or so.

It's a shit alternative to international diplomacy though.

 

[Patooka]

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse.

Sure they could. Things could always be worse.

You know what's worse than a really horrific government? No government at all.

As the Somalis.

It's astonishing how many people still can't figure out doing nothing is preferable to making a situation worse.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz.

Literally no assessments missed that. Everybody - every single person - who knew anything about the Persian Gulf knew about that.

Every single plan, wargame, exercise and policy decision in the last half century has had at its heart the understanding that Iran can inflict massive damage on the US, the OECD, and the wider world, by obstructing the Strait of Hormuz; And that there is nothing that can be done to stop them from doing that, if they want to.

What changed was that the policy of the President of the United States and his cabinet became "If a problem cannot be solved, it should just be ignored".

And that Trump Doctrine has been applied at every level. Ignore that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that your allies are warning that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs and the Whitehouse interns are warning that Iran can close the strait.

If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway.

Shit, I bet if Elon Musk stood up and said "If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway", the ovation would last for ten minutes. It's the beating heart of the business bullshit that has become hugely and widely popular in the last decade or so.

It's a shit alternative to international diplomacy though.

The assessments didn't suggest it would be a permanent weapon. Closing off Hormuz was always a threat, but when backs out, access through Hormuz is never going to be the same.

 

[bilby]

The assessments didn't suggest it would be a permanent weapon.

Well, they kinda did. Once Iran decides to close the strait, it's basically up to Iran and Iran alone to determine when to reopen it, to whom, and under what conditions.

And everyone knew that. Which is why everyone was careful not to push Iran into closing the strait, even when that meant concessions nobody was very happy with making to the ayatollahs. Because we all knew there was no 'undo' button.

Well, nothing short of an occupation costing tens of thousands of American soldiers' lives, and further millions of American soldiers on deployment for decades, maybe longer.

Everyone knew. Except the people now holding (or at least claiming) the authority to fuck things up without consulting anyone else.

Congress could have insisted on having a say. But MAGA. So they didn't.

 

[TV and credit cards]

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s are standing by awaiting orders from Iran. If Iran gives that order, the Bab al-Mandab Strait will also be closed to shipping.

For now, Iran will try and turn Arab nations allied with the US by controlling who gets in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And those Arab nations are biding their time waiting to see what Trump will do and where they need to be. Trump has again extended the deadline, now to April 7th.

 

[laughing dog]

Meanwhile, the Houthi’s are standing by awaiting orders from Iran. If Iran gives that order, the Bab al-Mandab Strait will also be closed to shipping.

For now, Iran will try and turn Arab nations allied with the US by controlling who gets in and out of the Strait of Hormuz. And those Arab nations are biding their time waiting to see what Trump will do and where they need to be. Trump has again extended the deadline, now to April 7th.

It’s TACO time.

 

[ZiprHead]

Well, they kinda did. Once Iran decides to close the strait, it's basically up to Iran and Iran alone to determine when to reopen it, to whom, and under what conditions.

I've heard Iran is allowing passage for some ships if they pay a million dollar fee.

 

[Toni]

It’s been well known since at least the 70’s and certainly before that how vital the Straits of Hormuz were to shipping oil and how disruption there via mines, or other means were to oil, globally.

I realize that was not something Trump or his band of incompetent useless idiots paid any heed to but why is that surprising?

And why the fuck hasn’t Trump been arrested for crimes against humanity re: Cuba? Never mind: I do understand that and realize that if he leaves office alive, that should happen but likely won’t. We should serve him up on a platter.

 

[barbos]

 

[Shadowy Man]

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.

If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work

In the US? With majorities in both chambers? Yeah, it is.

So, is he tacitly admitting that even Congress knew it was a bad idea, despite the implication above that it would be good?

When Congress won’t agree to it the President doesn’t get to just do it. There are certainly many of us who are against the war not because we like the Iranian regime.

Oh, I think most of us think it’s a terrible idea, no matter what our political leanings.

DrZ was saying that it was a *good* idea what Trump is doing to Iran. And my point was that if it is such a good idea then surely it would not be difficult to convince Congress that it's a good idea and to go about it following proper legal channels. He then stated that is "not how politics work"; a President wouldn't even ask Congress to pass a law that won't pass. Why it wouldn't pass is anybody's guess: if it's such a good idea no doubt the Republican-held Congress would agree with him, right? Since Trump is a criminal president he doesn't feel the need to do things legally and just does it anyway, despite apparently nobody thinking it's a good idea because I guess the new American motto is "easier to ask for forgiveness than permission". I'm sure this will all work out well in the end, right? But who am I to say; surely DrZ has an insight into American politics that I don't.

 

[scombrid]

Considering how godawful the Iranian regime is, any regime is preferable. They could not do worse. So I don't think there's necessarily anything wrong with Trump's strategy. It might work out, and if it does it'll be one of the cheapest wars, best bang for the buck, war ever. And if it doesn't. Well... didn't cost that much.

If it is such a good idea and can result in much good for the world then it shouldn’t have been difficult for Trump to have convinced Congress to authorize it.

That's not how politics work

He isn’t a dictator. Well, shouldn’t be.

 

[scombrid]

We've gained very little, for a high price, and the one thing the assessments missed was the permanent weaponization of the Strait of Hormuz.

Literally no assessments missed that. Everybody - every single person - who knew anything about the Persian Gulf knew about that.

Every single plan, wargame, exercise and policy decision in the last half century has had at its heart the understanding that Iran can inflict massive damage on the US, the OECD, and the wider world, by obstructing the Strait of Hormuz; And that there is nothing that can be done to stop them from doing that, if they want to.

What changed was that the policy of the President of the United States and his cabinet became "If a problem cannot be solved, it should just be ignored".

And that Trump Doctrine has been applied at every level. Ignore that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that your allies are warning that Iran can close the strait. Ignore that the Pentagon and the Joint Chiefs and the Whitehouse interns are warning that Iran can close the strait.

If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway.

Shit, I bet if Elon Musk stood up and said "If someone says it can't be done, do it anyway", the ovation would last for ten minutes. It's the beating heart of the business bullshit that has become hugely and widely popular in the last decade or so.

It's a shit alternative to international diplomacy though.

Trump ignoring advice from knowledgeable people has bankrupted every business he has ever touched. He just keep getting propped up by people more corrupt than he.

 

[Derec]

Destroy launchers, they build more.

Not if you also destroy the factories.

Kill leaders, new ones step up, Bomb infrastructure, they adapt.

Only works up to a point.

Short term success does not mean long term success. The U.S. has had long-term success in places like postwar Germany, Japan, and South Korea, where there were centralized states to rebuild.

Iran, unlike places like Arab countries and Afghanistan, has a long history of being a centralized state.
One thing about Germany and Japan is that their regimes were thoroughly defeated.

In the Middle East, where power is decentralized and conflicts are handled through proxies and fragmentation, destroying capabilities is unlikely to translated into long lasting results. At least not by force alone. You don’t get lasting control without buy-in from the people living there. And again, they're fragmented.

Far less so than other countries in the Middle East.

With someone like Trump at the helm, it’s hard to see sustained public buy-in anyway, given his track record of shifting positions.

True. Trump is a bad leader. The Regime should have been attacked by Obama, instead of giving them sanctions relief, pallets of cash and plenty of time to develop their missile and drone capabilities.

 

[Derec]

I found it interesting that Democrats have been very supportive of mass migration from the third world for the same reason.

We've gotten way off the topic of the Iran War, Excursion, whatever. It looks like Donald is busy TACOing this one again. Worst of all possibilities. Once you start something, you should be willing to see it through. If you don't want to see it through, don't start it in the first place.

Yeah who needs antitrust laws, environmental regs,

What does that have to do with anything I wrote above?

Yeah. A trans girl playing sports somewhere is way worse than have United/Optim vacuuming up health care spending away from patients and providers. Have to keep the eyes on theorize

It's not about what's "way worse" than something else. It's about Dems shooting an own goal in 2024 by refusing to say no to bad ideas floated by the activist class. Ideas like trans maximalism, which includes allowing biological males into women's and girls' sports. A sane position on this issue is completely independent of health insurance industry, so I do not know what that comparison was in aid of.
It is also off topic in this thread.

 

[Derec]

and Markey is behind that Green New Deal boondoggle.

You still bitching about the green new deal after the Iran war fiasco?

What does one have to do with another? GND is a poorly conceived idea that was more about a smörgåsbord of lefty policies such as federal jobs guarantees than about climate. And note that despite the stated urgency, its authors (mostly Markey and AOC) did not develop a concrete way to implement it even though it has been originally released 7 years ago.

Derec seems pretty heavily invested in fossil fuels.

I am not "heavily invested" in them (other than indirectly though instruments such as VFIAX and VTSAX), but I do recognize that even under best case scenarios, we will need fossil fuels for a few more decades.
And the Strait of Hormuz clusterfuck shows that we need more domestic oil and gas production, which includes the much maligned (by the left) pipelines such as DAPL as well as pipelines connecting us to Canadian oil sources such as Keystone XL.
Efforts by the left-wing of the Democratic party to block domestic oil and gas production and transport have always been idiotic, and this has become more obvious than ever in recent weeks.

 

[Toni]

and Markey is behind that Green New Deal boondoggle.

You still bitching about the green new deal after the Iran war fiasco?

What does one have to do with another? GND is a poorly conceived idea that was more about a smörgåsbord of lefty policies such as federal jobs guarantees than about climate. And note that despite the stated urgency, its authors (mostly Markey and AOC) did not develop a concrete way to implement it even though it has been originally released 7 years ago.

Derec seems pretty heavily invested in fossil fuels.

I am not "heavily invested" in them, but I do recognize that even under best case scenarios, we will need fossil fuels for a few more decades.
And the Strait of Hormuz clusterfuck shows that we need more domestic oil and gas production, which includes the much maligned (by the left) pipelines such as DAPL as well as pipelines connecting us to Canadian oil sources such as Keystone XL.
Efforts by the left-wing of the Democratic party to block domestic oil and gas production and transport have always been idiotic, and this has become more obvious than ever in recent weeks.

We are a net exporter of oil.

A few more decades of oil dependence gets us Mad Max.

 

[Derec]

We are a net exporter of oil.

No, we are not. This is 2023 data, but I do not see why it is fundamentally different in 2026.

In 2023, U.S. crude oil production averaged about 12.933 million barrels per day (b/d), crude oil imports averaged about 6.478 million b/d, and crude oil exports averaged about 4.058 million b/d, with net crude oil imports averaging about 2.420 million b/d.

[emphasis mine]
From here.

A few more decades of oil dependence gets us Mad Max.

How so?
A few more decades is absolutely necessary for a smooth transition. Stopping the use of fossil fuels over a short time frame would lead to a Max Max style future. This was envisioned by proponents of so-called Peak Oil Theory, which claimed that oil production would peak sometime around 2005 and that afterwards the global oil production would fall precipitously, resulting in chaos.

Why is a long transition necessary? Because it takes decades to transition a whole economy to a fundamentally different set of technologies. For example cars. EVs have made great strides over the last two decades, but they are still a minority of new car sales. And even if US somehow mandated all new car sales by 2035 be all-electric, that would still mean ICE cars driving around in 2050. Power generators and industrial facilities have lifetimes of decades, and it would be very expensive to scrap them ahead of their time and mandate that new renewable replacements be built. That too will have to be transitioned over decades. Airplanes cannot be electrified easily, and will realistically have to use some kind of synfuels, perhaps butanol. That will also take time.

In any case, none of what you wrote contradicts my claim that developing more domestic oil and gas production was necessary to reduce the impacts of shocks such as the Regime attacking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

[laughing dog]

We are a net exporter of oil.

No, we are not….

Since 2020, the US is a net exporter of oil. Oil includes refined oil products. It is a net importer of crude oil. (USA exports and imports of oil)

 

[SLD]

107 for WTI just now. Up $15 today alone.

It already pulled back to ~$85/bbl.

I’d bet on it not stopping until at least $150 range. If we’re lucky. Imagine what that will do to interest rates!

I doubt it. Oil production is more spread out, and world economy is less dependent on oil than it used to be even just two decades ago.

Trump is upset over Powell’s higher rates and wants to accelerate the economy. But everything is about to get bigly expensive all of a sudden. Every grocery delivery just effectively almost doubled. Kiss affordability out your ass. Watch the markets fucking implode Monday morning. Actually the Dow futures are already down 800 points and the markets haven’t technically opened. They’re down almost 10% of their high.

This is insane. If people think this is temporary, they’re nuts.

I'd get a refund on that crystal ball of yours.

And now it’s back up to over $100. And talk of it going to $150 if the straits don’t open in the next two weeks. It’s the down range shock that hasn’t set in yet. Refineries are going to shut down, rationing is already happening in some countries. It could ripple through Asian economies and then to us. Qatar is now talking about a complete shutdown if something doesn’t happen in 3 days.

Oil price at two-year high after Qatar minister warns all Gulf production could stop

Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi says oil could hit $150 a barrel if the Iran conflict continues over the coming weeks.

www.bbc.com

The Dow just dropped 793 points in one day. 8th worst day on record. Haven’t seen this since the last time Trump was president.

Everything could be reversed. But I think Trump will have to basically surrender and give Iran reparations for the war.

Of course he’ll claim it was a great deal.

 

[ZiprHead]

DrZ was saying that it was a *good* idea what Trump is doing to Iran.

I notice he is not volunteering to join the fight nor lobbying his government to do the same. He has described the woke as people who complain about injustice but do nothing about it. He sounds like his description of woke to a tee.