Yet another war, this time with Iran

[Jimmy Higgins]

Here's my little speculation. Iraq's, Kuwaits, Bahrains, Qatars and a lot of Saudi oil is locked up in the Persian gulf. But not UAE's. Right now limiting themselves to their OPEC quota makes no sense.

In what sense? Doesn't the UAE only have the capacity to get 1.5 million barrels per day to the far side of the Hormuz Strait?

I think its more a question of geography than diplomacy.

Well, that and pump stations, and pipeline cross sections. And remembering that this isn't only about oil, but urea, CO2, plastics, etc... We are running out of time.

Mr. Indefinite Ceasefire/Imminent Doom is rattling the sabres again with more AI images of him as a tough guy. He wants to make a deal, he has a set, but Iran is drawing for a nut flush on the river. Trump has no idea how to negotiate, nor does his cabinet. They want everything and can't accept that Iran can say no and illegally inflict catastrophic damage to the global economy as shortages of oil, jet fuel, plastics, urea become more apparent globally in the next two months.

Iran has no moral high ground, but that doesn't matter. And Trump is too ignorant to understand that. Despots don't survive by playing nice. And if you can't wipe them out, you have to deal with them.

Trump "kicked Iran in the nuts" and the world is worse off for it, as it led to Iran weaponizing the Strait, somewhat permanently it seems.

What a surprise that you are an apologist for despots. At least its on brand

That statements like "Iran has no moral high ground" and "Iran can say no and illegally inflict catastrophic damage" being taken as apologia for Iran by you exposes you have bloody clue what the word "apologist" means.

 

[bilby]

you have bloody clue what the word "apologist" means

I bet he's not sorry, either.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The UAE will leave OPEC effective May 1st.
The UAE is the third largest producer of oil.
Expect Trump to push harder now for opening back up the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE has a lot of spare capacity and can flood the oil market putting downward pressure on oil prices.
Should suck for Russia.

It's a huge win for Trump btw. Even a retarded buffoon can get it right sometimes through dumb luck.

I think the rest of the Middle-East is incredibly grateful to USA for finally kicking Iran in the nuts. Iran is the equivalent of a an uncle that keeps being invited for Christmas but can't stop himself from molesting the children. Yes, I still think Trump is an idiot

It can be a win for Republicans in November if and only if Trump can get the strait reopened and UAE increased pumping lowers the price at the pump. And Iran knows it. If I’m right, watch negotiations closely in the coming days. Let’s see who actually wins this ill-conceived war.
The buffoon got nothing right. The UAE is simply looking after its own interest. Their timing has been questioned and rightfully so. They claim there is no timing of the announcement which I cry bullshit on. Whatever.
If there is unmolested passage thru the strait and the UAE does pump at will, it is expected they will go from 3 to 5 million barrels per day, how might Saudi Arabia respond? I don’t think other OPEC members have the capacity to pump more and they will suffer if the price per barrel is driven down. Could we then see a breakdown of OPEC?

Your move Iran.
Iran's Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader's role

DUBAI, April 28 (Reuters) - Two months into a war with the U.S. and Israel, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power — an abrupt break with the past that may be hardening Tehran’s stance as it weighs renewed talks with Washington.

Fair assumption this was already so in practice. This makes it an official public announcement.
To paraphrase: It's not a choice between moderate and hardline policy in Iran now. It's a choice between hardline and even harder line.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

Your move Iran.
Iran's Guards seize wartime power, weakening Supreme Leader's role

DUBAI, April 28 (Reuters) - Two months into a war with the U.S. and Israel, Iran no longer has a single, undisputed clerical arbiter at the pinnacle of power — an abrupt break with the past that may be hardening Tehran’s stance as it weighs renewed talks with Washington.

Fair assumption this was already so in practice. This makes it an official public announcement.
To paraphrase: It's not a choice between moderate and hardline policy in Iran now. It's a choice between hardline and even harder line.

The attacks by the US and Israel have definitely disturbed the normal protocols for governance in Iran. Presumably those running the show are much more isolated than is typical. And in times of war, the military is more in control, especially if the lines of communication are disrupted. The new theocratic leader is well connected with the IRGC, so this is hardly a surprise that the IRGC would be calling a bit more of the shots.

But think the isolation is a bigger part of the lines of communication. The new guy goes out in the open, he is going to likely have a missile torching his way.

We can hope that the IRGC is pining for a new order in Iran, as they are the only route to that with their tentacles spread out throughout the Iranian economy.

 

[bilby]

To paraphrase: It's not a choice between moderate and hardline policy in Iran now. It's a choice between hardline and even harder line.

Trump wanted regime change; He got it.

Nobody dared to tell him to be careful what he wished for.

 

[Tigers!]

I am not cherry-picking.

Yes, you are.

Repression is the rule in Islamic societies.

Repression is the rule in any fundamentalist religious society.

Right wing Authoritatian societies in general. The right wing authoritatian atheists have their own religions that involve rationalizing their bigotry and desire to repress “others” to suit themselves. Don’t have to have superstition to have a repressive religion. Market fundamentalism and a desire to prop up your position in class or gender based stratification is sufficient for monstrous natural human behavior.

FIFY

 

[laughing dog]

I am not cherry-picking.

Yes, you are.

Repression is the rule in Islamic societies.

Repression is the rule in any fundamentalist religious society.

Right wing Authoritatian societies in general. The right wing authoritatian atheists have their own religions that involve rationalizing their bigotry and desire to repress “others” to suit themselves. Don’t have to have superstition to have a repressive religion. Market fundamentalism and a desire to prop up your position in class or gender based stratification is sufficient for monstrous natural human behavior.

FIFY

Left wing authoritarian societies seldom adopt market fundamentalism, so that response is more BIFY (Broke It For You).

 

[Tigers!]

Jordan was the only country to welcome the Palestinians after 1948. And we saw the result in September 1970. Other country's were more aware than Jordan and did not provide an open welcome.

You really have no idea how utterly racist ^this^ is, do you?

Let's try this: no other country wanted to accept Jews when the Russians and the Germans were kicking them out. The British let a lot of them enter Palestine, and look how that turned out. Things sure would have been a lot more peaceful if the Jews were kept out. Those guys are nothing but trouble. No wonder the Europeans didn't want them around.

Do you see the problem now, or should I continue?

I can certainly see a problem But it is most probably not the problem you see.

You don't see that you were counting on other people having racist beliefs about the inherent characteristics of Palestinians to make your argument sound reasonable?

Thank you for reading my mind. Next time do remember to ask me before you tell the world what you think I am thinking.

The problem is the way we (humanity in general) treat the Jews. For far too much of their long history the Jews have suffer discrimination, attacks, persecutions, exiles, attempted genocide etc. They have suffered far more that any other group of people.

I don't think Jews have suffered more than enslaved blacks and their descendants. I don't think they have suffered more than the Dalit. If things don't change for the Rohingya, they might surpass Jews in the long history of persecution category if they haven't already.

6 million dead in < decade is a big hurdle to clear.

But let's suppose Jews have suffered more. That doesn't mean they are now allowed to inflict suffering on others. Doing to others all the terrible things that were done to you and yours isn't fairness, it's generational trauma being passed along to the detriment of everyone.

All they wish to have a place to be able to live in peace with their neighbours, raise their children, make a life for themselves. Incidentally that is exactly what you and I wish for too.
Yet that is not afforded to them. Constantly living on edge, forced or exiled from too many places. Attacked, harassed. Non-Jews (including myself) would have no idea what living as a Jew is like.
If we were to treat the Jews properly then a lot of trouble would disappear. The Jews did not ask for all of this. It was given to them.

Everyone wants to have peaceful, prosperous lives. What we do to achieve it matters. It matters if we are willing to buy, to beg, to borrow, to steal, to murder, to oppress, to become just like the assholes we are trying to escape, or to build a system where oppression is the enemy, not the go-to tactic for getting what we want.

No one asks to be oppressed. But how we respond to oppression, both the kind we experience and the oppression of others, matters.

How much of that is due to the Palestinians and how much it is due to having a convenient mutual eneamy in Israel.

Yes to both. By not really looking after the refugees they had a convenient stick to use again Israel.
Lebanon allowed in some and we can still see the results today.

Why shouldn't the Palestinian refugees have been allowed to return to their former places of residence in Palestine?

Can you think of any reason other than racism or religious bigotry?

Fear of the past events reappearing?

Past events in Europe, or past events in Palestine?

The past events in Palestine were centuries of peaceful relations, interfaith marriages, and a dull, boring, quiet march to modernity. What's so bad about that?

The claim of peaceful relations was pushed by the Ottomans. I wonder whether the dhimmi (protected people) felt the same way? And why and from whom did the Jews need this 'protection'?
You romanticise that period so well. Those who were dhimmi probably did not have your rose tinted glasses.
There were required to pay the jizya (poll tax). They faced restrictions such as limitations on building new synagogues, specific dress codes, and a ban on carrying guns (though these were not always strictly enforced).
The major problem is the sheer capriciousness of the system. The dhimmi never knew when the rules would change or by how much. I am surprised that you consider it so fondly. You would not accept for a moment such a capricious system in your own county (I note the very recent changes to your voting laws) but it's alright if it occurs outside your borders it seems or in the past.

The Arab Proposal called for preserving everything that had been working for Palestinians of different faiths and ethnicities, ensuring continued religious freedom, peace and stability in civil administration, accepting the legal immigration that had already happened, and ensuing the people of Palestine were on-board with accepting more immigrants before allowing them entry. What's so bad about that?

Loren likes to talk about the 100,000 Offer. He is completely wrong about the details so don't take his word on the provisions but let's suppose it was as he describes it. As I recall, you were in favor of that plan. So let's suppose it was the Palestinians who offered to allow 100,000 refugees from Europe to settle in the State of Palestine. Does that sound good to you? If not, why not?

I wish there will an easy solution but there is not. There is so much fear and hatred in the ME that is unlikely to ever end.

Even if there is no solution that is perfectly good, it's still possible to sort potential solutions into "better" and "worse".

It is better to respect and protect human rights.

It is worse to make racism, bigotry, and religious bias a founding principle for a system of governance.

It is better to always seek peaceful resolutions to conflicts even if/when you have to fight to protect and defend your friends and family and "They started it!".

It is worse to brutalize and terrorize others into doing what you want.

Back in 2024 I posted a link to a Cinema Therapy video titled See With Eyes Unclouded By Hate. I don't know if you ever watched it. It's all about conflict resolution when people are fighting for their lives and livelihoods. I'm offering it again as an example of what I'm talking about and why the approach it illustrates via the character Ashitaka is better than throwing up your hands and letting the most selfish and brutal elements in a society be in charge of it.

I had not heard of that film. Thank you for the link.

 

[Jimmy Higgins]

The US steps things up in the Iran theater by having the.... USS Gerald Ford depart it?

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will depart the Middle East and begin the sail for home in coming days, multiple U.S. officials said, an expected relief for roughly 4,500 sailors who have been deployed for 10 months — but a loss of significant firepower as peace talks between the United States and Iran stagnate.

The Ford is one of three aircraft carriers in the region — the others are the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln — amid hostilities with Iran. While the Ford is in the Red Sea, the Lincoln and Bush are operating in the Arabian Sea to enforce the U.S. blockade targeting vessels carrying oil or goods from Iranian ports.

It was not clear precisely when the Ford would depart the Middle East. One official said that it is probably expected back home in Virginia around mid-May.

Is this a soft-messaging from the US to Iran (oil markets)?

 

[crazyfingers]

The US steps things up in the Iran theater by having the.... USS Gerald Ford depart it?

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will depart the Middle East and begin the sail for home in coming days, multiple U.S. officials said, an expected relief for roughly 4,500 sailors who have been deployed for 10 months — but a loss of significant firepower as peace talks between the United States and Iran stagnate.

The Ford is one of three aircraft carriers in the region — the others are the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln — amid hostilities with Iran. While the Ford is in the Red Sea, the Lincoln and Bush are operating in the Arabian Sea to enforce the U.S. blockade targeting vessels carrying oil or goods from Iranian ports.

It was not clear precisely when the Ford would depart the Middle East. One official said that it is probably expected back home in Virginia around mid-May.

Is this a soft-messaging from the US to Iran (oil markets)?

WAPO wants me to subscribe.

The Ford has way overstayed its deployment. The laundry fire destroyed hundreds of beds early on in this. The crew needs a rest before they have very redused effectiveness.

 

[ZiprHead]

Gas has gone up more than a buck and a half in the last two weeks.

Thanks, Don.

 

[TV and credit cards]

The US steps things up in the Iran theater by having the.... USS Gerald Ford depart it?

The aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford will depart the Middle East and begin the sail for home in coming days, multiple U.S. officials said, an expected relief for roughly 4,500 sailors who have been deployed for 10 months — but a loss of significant firepower as peace talks between the United States and Iran stagnate.

The Ford is one of three aircraft carriers in the region — the others are the USS George H.W. Bush and the USS Abraham Lincoln — amid hostilities with Iran. While the Ford is in the Red Sea, the Lincoln and Bush are operating in the Arabian Sea to enforce the U.S. blockade targeting vessels carrying oil or goods from Iranian ports.

It was not clear precisely when the Ford would depart the Middle East. One official said that it is probably expected back home in Virginia around mid-May.

Is this a soft-messaging from the US to Iran (oil markets)?

WAPO wants me to subscribe.

The Ford has way overstayed its deployment. The laundry fire destroyed hundreds of beds early on in this. The crew needs a rest before they have very redused effectiveness.

Left on June 24, 2025. It'll be eleven months before they get back. It's a lot of extra pay and can be tax free when in a designated combat zone.

 

[ZiprHead]

WAPO wants me to subscribe.

I just resubscribed. twenty bucks for a year.

I didn't want to do it because Bezos but I don't think his purchase has effected the content too badly.

 

[Harry Bosch]

Gas has gone up more than a buck and a half in the last two weeks.

Thanks, Don.

This will of course increase the cost of everything that is transported in the short term. Food prices will increase further in the long term due to lack of fertilizer. Go Trump.

 

[crazyfingers]

WAPO wants me to subscribe.

I just resubscribed. twenty bucks for a year.

I didn't want to do it because Bezos but I don't think his purchase has effected the content too badly.

I quit my Wapo subscription when Bezos restricted their editorial scope.

I still get the NYT, Boston Globe, CNN subscription, and I donate to AP News

 

[TV and credit cards]

Trump signs order authorizing oil pipeline project partially reviving Keystone XL

The new proposal involves a different route through the U.S. than the previous Keystone XL project, which was canceled by former President Joe Biden in 2021 after years of Indigenous and environmental opposition.
"Slightly different than the last administration," Trump said ⁠at a White House event, referring to his administration's attitude towards crude oil infrastructure. "They wouldn't sign a pipeline deal, and we have pipelines going up."

 

[aupmanyav]

US seems to be sitting pretty while the rest of the world suffers. But why would Trump care for that?

 

[barbos]

US Trump and his insider trading family and friends seems to be sitting pretty while the rest of the world suffers. But why would Trump care for that?

Fixed for you

 

[ZiprHead]

The Latest: Trump administration says war in Iran has been ‘terminated’ before 60-day deadline

President Donald Trump’s administration is arguing that the war in Iran has already ended because of the ceasefire that began in early April, an interpretation that would allow the White House to avoid the need to seek congressional approval

 

[jonatha]

The Latest: Trump administration says war in Iran has been ‘terminated’ before 60-day deadline

President Donald Trump’s administration is arguing that the war in Iran has already ended because of the ceasefire that began in early April, an interpretation that would allow the White House to avoid the need to seek congressional approval

Guess the troops won't qualify for hazard pay then...